Member Info for romaron

I arrived at the AGM with minutes to spare (no Great Northern - overhead line damage at Alexandra Palace) so came by tube. The AGM didn’t seem as full as other years with more from EnQuest and registrars than investors.

The AGM was over quickly after AB basically read out the RNS and invited questions. There were only a few with no great enthusiasm because imo LTHs know that much is beyond EnQuest’s gift regarding the NS. I asked 2 questions. An interim dividend? Answer – “No”. I then asked if we had a Trading division and AB waffled on. It is really a sales department imo and I accept it is a complicated field requiring experience but over the past 3 months those companies with a Trading division have been creaming it and it is hard to lose money in those conditions.

After the official bit was over, we were invited to chat. I turned around and a couple smiled at me, and I asked if they were investors? It turns out it was Paul Massie the Legal and Commercial Director who handled the Magnus transaction and Claire Scrimgeour has been HR Director for the NS since June 2024. I started by asking why Steve Bowyer was sacked. I said it jokingly and it broke the ice. The answer was that they are still on friendly terms, and it seemed genuine. PM cleared up something for me. I was under the impression that the EnQuest Producer was somehow integral to getting the gas from Bressay. It isn’t as the gas plan is a tie-back from a well-head to Kraken Armada. Gareth Penny joined us and I’m beginning to warm to him. As the investment world returns to commodities who better to have as chairman than a man who understands “Dirt and Diesel”.

AB came over and commented that I didn’t seem convinced with his definition of a Trading division. He said he was a trader at ARCO in the past and how would I have felt if he reported a $100mio loss. Fair enough, you play to your strengths, and his long-term strategy seems to be paying dividends (not interim).

Later there are always many questions you wished you had asked and observations that didn’t immediately register. Sometimes what isn’t mentioned is significant.

EP has become more than scrap value. EnQuest are loved in SEA but hated in Westminster. I am told there is “optionality” on the future of the EP. I’d be happy to wager it leaves the NS.

There was gentle pressure to get us out of the room and for the board to depart. It is always a golden opportunity to get things approved and no doubt this was happening. I cannot remember on past AGMs but is it normal to have HR at an AGM? The AGM is at Ashurst so why the extra lawyer from EnQuest? I think a deal was being discussed and HR for UK TUPE and other reasons on hand along with an experienced company lawyer who has experience (Magnus) also as back-up. I didn’t get the timings, but Craig left for the 4 o’clock from Kings X as he was going steerage to Aberdeen. Paul and Claire were flying back.

(cont)

Appreciate the reply. I'm trying to report on the AGM and AI hardly helps at all. I use AI myself and my daughter pays for and uses ChatGPT and Claude. She knows a lot more than me and reports, commentates and writes about AI. She knows how to tweak the algos.

O/T she recently had her Autobiography published and sold on Amazon. Problem was she never wrote it and 31 is a bit young for an autobiography. She bought it of course and it was totally inaccurate. She claimed the money back and Amazon withdrew it.

Now back to the AGM.

I'm afraid it will only get worse.

Which AI platform are you using Hunbah? I preferred it when you did some of the commentary yourself.

KO - I've just got in. I'm too old for this kinda thing. Unfortunately you had to be there for the nuance. I'm very happy with the presentation and what we found out. I imagine the new format possibly came from some new consultancy or change of approach. AB and Gareth Penny were both in good form and relaxed. I take that as a good sign.

"in the North Sea specifically, our tax assets have never been more valuable. This is a really exciting time for EnQuest, and I am energised by the opportunities, both organic and transactional, which are ahead of us." That'll do for me.

Harriet Cross and Stephen Fl ynn on tonight. Live now on iplayer.

Https://x.com/NetZeroWatch/status/2057412377876795683

I didn't realise that aerospace, farming (without fertiliser?) and pharmaceuticals were time-limited industries. You learn something every day.

Perhaps we don't need the investment in defence either now that we've made a peace-offering to Putin.

I don't think Genghis watched the whole video either M - Ed Conway makes a strong case for continuing the production of gas from new fields resulting in increased revenue, lower emissions and less reliance on imports.

The video is actually very supportive of the real world and a counter to the ideology of deindustrialisation by exporting our jobs and emissions to other countries.

Javier Blas's take:

The UK government is spinning its waiver on imports of Russian refined oil products as "temporary" (and briefing reporters it will be reviewed in 3 months).

But the legal text doesn't say that ⤵️. It says the waiver is of "indefinite duration." Of course, as any other waiver, it can be rescinded. But, if so, the legal text says the gov "will endevour" to provide the market with a 4-month notice. So, using the briefing guidance, that's 3 months for a review + 4 months notice = end of 2026.

Agree with the gov briefing in one aspect: c*ck-up.

Heroiam slava! (as long as it doesn't affect my 2 weeks in Benidorm)

We Brits know about sacrifice but asking us to change our holiday plans. I mean - come on. What next - they'll be asking us to turn the thermostat down or provide breakfast for our own kids.

You're probably right mrc and "Mucky" Mazzagatti came up with a figure of $600mio BUT this was for an Early Production System (EPS). An EPS would be a gentler approach and to an extent self-funding because of a leaner, staged approach. Accessing the easier stuff first. It creates a realistic redeployment pathway and Bressay gets a lower hurdle to sanction so all good and sensible. BUT does NSTA still consider Viaro a reputable and reliable partner?

Anything is possible but I guess the present aim is to use the EP for getting the gas from Bressay to the Kraken Armada. I'd prefer it to be used for the oil from Bressay as well obviously. I was more interested in showing how the value of an asset can quickly change from scrap value to scarce industrial infrastructure. And it all depends on Ed Miliband.

I was researching (OK, watching YouTube O&G videos) and a pundit recommended buying picks & spades of the O&G industry i.e. service companies, rig providers etc and my thoughts turned to EnQuest Producer. It has harsh environment class/certification purpose built for the NS and these types of FPSO's are rare and VERY expensive. It is in our books for peanuts but should Bressay go ahead it is a game changer. To be dramatic I could say that it is potentially worth more than our current market cap. AI suggest a cost of $250-650mio against a new one costing upwards of $1.2bn. Offshore Magazine reported Viaro estimating about £600m capex for the early production system development and that includes the EP. Our accounting value of the EP is almost meaningless strategically.

However, there is a downside. We became tied up with Viaro 2.5 years ago (15% of Bressay and the EP). We weren't in the financial health we are now but Viaro have since become enmeshed in scandal with their CEO Francesco Mazzagatti and bargepole appearing in the same sentence. Deals are being blocked by the NSTA. This is not helpful if we wish to progress further.

The AGM will be interesting.

And try to watch it twice after a gap. I don't know why but important stuff does seem to sink in after you've slept on it. The FT post kinda confirms it (thanks M for opening Frac's post) whilst Tarmak's points out that people with NO interest in O&G are going to learn how important they are. Crudely put, people panicked into buying toilet tolls for 2 months. The rebalancing (when it happens) may take years. The worst hit will be the poorer countries especially Africa despite it being far sunnier than the UK.

As for toilet rolls - in the past old newspapers sufficed. In this digital age it might require some innovation.

Https://www.unitetheunion.org/ecmembers

No mention of Oil & Gas. Unite care more about Palestine and Stop the War Coalition than they do about jobs. I thought Trade Unions were set up to protect British workers? Cliff Bowen goes on about the sector he worked in but not proud enough to include it as still an important sector. Unite are not on the side of O&G and never have been imo.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOT2rrm10RM

I viewed this video on Friday and again this morning. I'd advise everybody to do the same. There is so much that you miss on one viewing.

Jeff Currie has a humility that few other pundits share but Carlyle understand and have him as a senior advisor. He gets grief from his wife and is "in over his ski-tips" which a few here will totally understand. He admits to 30 years in the business yet still gets it wrong. He should have just bought the front-end and rolled it.

The comment about the Houthis grabbed me. If they can block the Red Sea and have been for some time with their limited resources then what can Iran do? JC says that a reopening of the SoH will actually bring this into perspective and the back end will finally move up to where it belongs. He is saying that the futures are wrong. I agree. We will then see O&G equities move higher once the SoH is open again.

The comments over the 10 year bond are worth noting and on Friday was 4.59% so expect turbulence with a tweet from Trump this week. The 834 and 835 directives from China are worth looking up. Our diversification in SEA comes into this but all over my head I'm afraid.

He mentioned H100 and I had to look it up. I wondered why he was talking about the Fife Hydrogen village. He wasn't. It just adds to the obvious ignorance being shown by our leaders in choosing such an inept title for another renewable failure heaped onto the taxpayer.

Build it and they will come. There ain't an alternative.

Thanks VoR - I can't see or read these things. I come from a time when people waved their hands around, shouted a lot and said electronic trading would never catch on. A lot can be read into them and Mr Market is often wrong. It could easily be profit-taking etc... The market does get transfixed by "ranges" and "support and consolidation" and so on but change does happen and it is on the way in both our opinions.

Yesterday Tate & Lyle jumped almost 50% on an approach. The price had been moribund for some time but in the twinkle of an eye it has been transformed. It does say something about valuations. Tate & Lyle have been hounded too and sugar is in the minds of the likes of our Ed a Class A drug. The fundamentals are that people like sugar; they also like the adaptability and ease of O&G.

Https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/2034207156140974320

This is dated 18 March. I've read Ed Conway's book "Material World" and his depth of research is impressive. What is even more impressive is his ability to take complex matters and condense them into simple explanations. In this he explains why using our own gas instead of LNG is a no-brainer. Either Ed is so self-indoctrinated that it overrides normal common sense or he is up to something far more sinister. He may even be suffering from a neurological disorder imo?

The empirical truth is that Energy Reality lives in dollars per joule.

It is clear that this deluded fool sees himself as a latter day William Wilberforce and he is leading the world away from fossil fuels and somehow "freeing" us from our enslavement by the petrostates and dictators from countries like Norway.

What he doesn't understand is that it was fossil fuels that "freed" millions from bondage and a short and brutal life barely above the poverty level. His ancestors weren't here in the UK when we led the world in mechanisation using coal in something called the Industrial Revolution. It led to a multitude of spin-offs including cheap fertiliser and railways. A barrel of oil is worth 4 1/2 years of manual labour. Would my great, great grandmother choose a washboard over a washing machine? Would her husband choose an ox and plough over a tractor?

The climate angle is being disproved as almost every prediction has failed to materialise. There are always small risks to every choice we make (look at the small print on medication) but Ed takes the view that the only way to avoid a single death from peanut allergy is to ban peanuts for all. Without oil hospitals would shut overnight. Oil is in everything we use and they are all better than before the Industrial Revolution.

In a world intoxicated by PR slogans and “green miracles,” we seem to have forgotten a fundamental truth: Physics does not accept bribes from politicians. Gullible people do and those with messianic dreams are the purveyors of it.

This is all madness. They have condemned O&G using coal as a precedent. The problem is that the replacement of coal was largely gas whilst oil has always had its importance.

The situation today is that our energy requirement is that gas is still 35-40% of our energy requirement and oil is 32-36%. Coal is less than 1%.

These percentages are slow to reduce even after the amount of money thrown at renewables over 3 decades. As an investment for the UK it has been a poor one but the promise is always "jam tomorrow". Other countries have seen the stupidity of replacing a cheaper more efficient form of energy for a more expensive one. It is particularly ridiculous for the UK as LNG costs 3X as much as our own gas and has more emissions.

BUT Labour want to continue and pay no heed to job losses in the O&G industry. On top of this a crucial amount of our energy comes from Europe - especially France for nuclear whilst politicians pretend that Drax is environmentally friendly and cheap. The "kindness of friends" doesn't always equal "Energy Security". The public is largely unaware and this country seems gripped by an ideology that relies on money to be taken from those who have it to those who require benefit assistance or avail themselves of something that is freely available.

I listened to the exchange between Murray and the Radio 4 presenter this morning. The presenters are catching up but was unable to press home the advantage when Murray said that O&G fields can take 10 years to produce and the presenter used the response that Nick Clegg said something similar in 2012 about nuclear. Murray responded with the mantra of "tie-backs" being the solution but the presenter totally missed that tie-backs are seldom viable with the EPL still in place but they are gradually demolishing the arguments put forward by DESNZ