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Whether it was a genuine mistake or accidental release of sensitive information I think the market is less sure of P3 now than it was at 4.25 this afternoon and this will be reflected in the sp tomorrow (above the 153 pre video but quite a bit below the 178 close).
Obviously the one thing that will change this is a 7am RNS confirming P3 but I would argue there was no need for an after hours retraction if we were going to announce pre 8am tomo. More likely will be an RNS “clarifying speculation on social media” which will state we are on P2 but hope for news shortly and that shareholders will be updated as soon as possible blah blah blah”. This would put us back in the late 150s early 160s.
Either way the end game remains the same so unless you need to sell it doesn’t hugely matter if we open at 155 or 195 tomorrow as most of us are here for 750-900 this coming winter. In fact you might argue that whilst a paper profit is reassuring the price being in the 150s gives more opportunity to top up in advance of P3 read out.
For full transparency i top sliced about 10% of my holding at 180 earlier and if that is the last time we see sub 200 I will be happy as I have left most my skin in the game but if we see 150 or in later weeks sub 150 I will take the opportunity to buy back my 10% giving me an extra 500 shares or so.
Casaspinos - if I borrow £100k from a bank to 100% buy a car from a dealership and offer the car to the bank as collateral then fail to keep up payments to the bank meaning the bank take my car off me to sell
Second hand in order to recoup some of their losses in what way does this effect the dealership I originally bought the car off? I think SAE is, like the dealership, unaffected by this.
The share price is low not because anything is fundamentally wrong with the business but because everyone is anticipating the market being flooded with shares for a while and therefore going cheaper still. If this happened it would be temporary and we would soon see double digits after even without significant news.
You are reporting that they are likely to sell to institutional investors which is a huge positive as it avoids the pain of being drip fed onto the open market (unless the IIs chooses to sell but even then it would be a premium to if they had been dumped).
Personally I love an opportunity to pick up assets below market value and not because their is something inferior with the asset but because there is a distressed seller. This is like buying repossession flats for a property portfolio in my opinion and one day it will seem crazy that we ever were able to buy them this cheap.
Happy to hear an alternative view.
Thanks Matml. Appreciate the answer on this.
Not so much to Lima and Mimillasa. If you didn’t know the answer to my question or didn’t want to share it then there is no need to reply at all.
@Matml - is there somewhere which shows which other countries are yet to approve or was India the last one?
Hi. A little out of date question but I keep wondering why we have not been dosing India since p3 started in Jan?
As I understood it P3 involves 600 patients across 20 countries... in my naivety I thought all 20 countries would run concurrently. So when we dosed our first patient in the UK I assumed that give or take a week we would be doing the same in the other 19 countries. Am I right about this? If so was India not on the list of 20 countries? Is it a side trial? Is it replacing some of our quota in other countries where cases are so low we have been unable to recruit?
On a side note and again in my naivety I imagined just 30 patients per country (20 X 30 = 600). Is this too simplistic? Feels like we should easily have found our quota if that is the case... I am worried that in high vaccine countries we are going to find it increasingly hard to find patients suitable for trial whereas back in Feb we literally had our pick of 1000s.
Any help from those more informed would be appreciated.
Yes. But unfortunately in a world where you are a long term holder if you are in a share for a month a the idea of 12 months for a multi bag seems a lifetime away this could hit the sp.
Except it’s not at low 4s yet... 4.5 to buy. I would be tempted at 4.3.
This time I will put a post It on my computer reminding me to sell in the medium/high 5s! Or at least top slice.
Op update reasonable as suggests they are going to crack on with monetising Napster which is why I’m here (not for VR)
Partnership- have no thoughts except it can only be positive or neutral as it doesn’t cost us anything and may increase reach but my scepticism says it will me marginal.
Loan update is unbelievable given the outcry at the original deal. To have ignored this outcry and extended it seems borderline corrupt. The only solace is the language by Nice and Green where they infer that they want to be shareholders.... if so then fine but to have an institution sitting on such cheap shares is precarious for normal PIs.
In summary if we can deliver a relaunch of Napster that takes even a fraction of market share then I doubt the loan agreement will ever figure again on this chat board but for now I am little horrified that we have extended that deal....
Sturdz- very plausible as I’ll admit I was doing exactly that- holding on until JORC with the plan to derisk by selling a third or so of my holding at anything over 9 or 10p (if had started rising I would have got greedy I suspect). As it was it began to drop so I settled for selling 15% at around 8p but got NT. by the time I could trade I found the price had gone so low it was no longer a sell and actually hovered over the buy button a few times this afternoon!
As you say - there were probably plenty of PIs like me with the same transparent plan. Anyone selling now either has a desperate need for cash or a knife incredible alternative... this is fantastic value at anything sub 10p and even though I would sell a portion at circa 10p that would be me rebalancing rather than exiting.
Trying to work out the revenue from this... getting a graphite price is not easy as it varies dramatically depending on flake size. This could be £120m per annum or £20m per annum (both huge multiples of current sp but the lower estimate less exciting). Am I getting this right? Cheers
Looks good and very bullish although to my untrained eye it doesn’t give a lot of new info ha the drilling report we already had. What surprised me was this drilling report didn’t lead to a huge uptick in SP... maybe this will...
I assume we are expecting a dosing complete RNS for phase 3 before we can get excited by results? Looking back at previous RNS we got a phase 2 commencement RNS on 31/03 and a dosing complete on 28/05. This was for 100 patients but I would like to think that 600 patients across 20 countries should have been easy to find but maybe the bottle neck is internal on limiting how many can be monitored at a time.
From 28/05 it was nearly another 2 months for prelim results. Not sure if this is standard but if we are still aiming for early summer results then I would hope for a dosing finished RNS this month.
Interestingly the home trial phase 2 RNS had dosing complete at 20/01 so using the hospital phase 2 timelines we are overdue results but in fairness they did say Q2 which means they never expected to repeat the study as quick (I suspect because it is less of a priority than phase 3 and maybe even an unwanted distraction !?). Nevertheless I guess it is not unreasonable to hope for early Q2 for results but like others have said - it may give a small boost (if positive) but the real prize is phase 3 (and Activ 2).
On a side note I do also worry that he hometrial may briefly knock confidence. We were recruiting anyone over 65 who have something like a 4% death rate so 60 placebo you would maybe expect 2 deaths. Best case for SNG patients is 0 deaths. You only need the 60 placebo patients to outperform the avg by 1 person and/or 1 patient to have died despite SNG and we may not demonstrate anything exciting (because of sample size and recruitment criteria).
Anyway that’s where I see this now. Hopefully this was a waste of time and a game changing RNS lands in 35 mins.
It would have been nice if they had given some more info regarding the remaining income and the contract status surrounding this. As others are saying. That income alone is enough to justify an investment case but only of that income is set to stay.
Its a tempting price to buy back in but not tempting enough for me without a more comprehensive forward looking plan.