The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@Harchris. I genuinely missed that BAT did a placing? If they did then great as I won’t deny that the impeding second tranche has been a concern of mine (we also wouldn’t know if they had sold out of tranche 1 as no need to notify once below 3%).
Can you provide link to placing news for BAT. Not saying I don’t believe this but keen for reassurance as this would make me more bullish.
Cheers
Wasn’t that on the 6th?
I went onto BAT website a few weeks ago and they had done a recent presentation which very much included their investment in TGR as a cornerstone to their business. Gave me some confidence that they intend to hold on to second tranche.
@lostmoney - haha that is City down to a tee. You are right -once we have proved NFTs don't sell he will say that was never going to work but then fully back the next thing. I don't know how someone so stupid has enough money to be a TR1 holder...
I suspect the radio silence is an attempt to raise ahead of results as otherwise we will all see in the results the need to raise and crash the SP making it even harder to raise. I also suspect our TR1 holders have been tapped for this hence no comment.
@Harchris. Not quite true regarding fully paid in shares as the CLN that caused all the fuss yesterday was to fund the cash consideration of the acquisition.
Also the share payment made to BAT has been dumped on the open market which has been one of the main factors we now find ourselves at the sp we are at.
Don’t deny that 5 years from now that this may look the correct strategy but it’s painful
For balance - I think I am in a minority who wishes we had never bough Mozambique. It seems all our cash flow restraint would not exist if we hadn't stretched ourselves. I think I am the only one who would have been quite happy working within our means and slowly developing the 30k resource in Madagascar. Get cashflow positive and then look to be more ambitious.... Perhaps hindsight but all my valuations of this business are purely based on Madagacar and we would be at multiples without cash flow constraints.
@AJ - All I can say is to echo Shishir's sentiment and welcome you into the TGR fold as a fellow shareholder. Unfortunately your investment is already 10% down due to a poster earlier alarming the investment community with nonsense talk of winding up... Hopefully with the clarity issued just now you can recover that on Monday.
@Gallmat - to answer your frustration on why not an equity raise to end the speculation. Simple answer is Shishir does not agree with the market valuation so refuses to dilute at such cheap values. I suspect he was loathe to even do this tiny dilution to pay the interest and the reason AJ was left waiting I suspect is because he is very close to debt finance (at least a bridging loan) and could have paid out of that... Circumstances today have forced his hand. I wonder if once we have debt finance sorted whether you will still feel issuing equity around the 16p level is wise?... Obviously in hindsight a placing at the 40p level would have been best I think.
Looks like the battle that has raged all day between the seller and buyer is being won by the bulls. Possibly the seller is out at last? You'd feel sick if you were one of the ones who sold big chunks at 15.5 this morning - Over 10% up from there now.
About 4 X the volume we normally see....
Unusually high volume today given no news. Would seem to be fairly equal sells to buys. Weird that a share that often has v low liquidity can all of a sudden find a big buyer and seller at the same time. All I can hope is that the seller is distressed (BAT??) and the buyer knows something we don’t (wonder if we all of a sudden get a Myles McNulty tweet 😂)
It would be unforgivable for the company to miss the Q3 targets and land that Miss upon us like a bombshell. I already feel the way they delayed telling us the Q1 miss was criminal. You are supposed to give the market material information as soon as possible so 6 weeks into the quarter you likely know you are missing and should say so. We then would know silence is a positive but instead we are left with a nagging fear that silence is then sitting on bad news….. I have to believe they would not do this again. The more nuanced fear is that they ARE hitting production or at least have the ability to hit it but the sales are not yet there to be had. Whilst we all know the. Graphite market is likely to become a sellers market I don’t believe it is right now.
@harchris, whilst hitting targets on production and sales is my preference by way of an update I actually think some sort of debt funding announcement (assuming terms are not horrendous) will give a more immediate bounce.
Tommorow. You need to back that up with links to evidence. I don’t recall individual seeking contracts ever being published by TGR so how you know we are selling at a discount i have no idea…. The avg realised price we get for our sales seems very much in line with other sellers and any available data on graphite prices (which is actually hard to find which in itself makes claims of a “discount” hard to prove)
This is a main market LSE company which is fully audited. You weren’t on this BB when the price was climbing a few weeks ago.
All the best.
Another positive announcement. The volumes are tiny on the down days here. So hopefully having another broker banging our drum will drive some institutional investment here via the open market.
Meanwhile accessing the bond markets for the capital we need to move forwards.
3 big RNS’s that I expect in next 5 weeks
1. News of debt funding to put to bed any capital concerns and ensure we move through the gears of ramping productions without deliberately having to slow it down
2. Update on new customers and confirmation that China halting graphite exports has indeed led to a materially improving market
3. £1m VAT rebate received.
Every chance that this slides a little further before the first of these arrive but the gamble is waiting for 1-2p discount. But risk missing on the 6-10p rise when the news comes through.
Ha ha. I can smell the desperation with some of the traders here who were perhaps hoping for another dip…. NANO has continuously advised that any orders in 2023 would be low volume so to now hit them over the head when they deliver exactly what they promised is ridiculous.
In fact there is a little bit more in this RNS which for the first time indicates how this could explode in 2025 and also does indicate it could be earlier if the tech takes off sooner than expected.
For me the biggest positive here is that they have constantly referenced “end 2023” and being a cynical investor of many small cap shares I was fully buckled in for the “will it, won’t it happen?” Debate all the way to 23rd Dec so to have got the announcement out mid Nov gives me more confidence than ever that we don’t have a load of wide boys on the board unlike lists of similar Mcap listed outfits.
I expect to see early 20s here soon (equal to cash of company). Even with the long time frame for significant revenues I would have hoped 10-15p enterprise value which would have us at 30-35p. Doubt that will happen until after the formal return to shareholders is announced.
Really positive. The fact they have significantly added cash and increased dividend through the traditional bleak qtr is huge.
I I’m particularly loving the increasing reference to mitigation measures to cope with future dry seasons.
Loving this at the moment.
Even today - it drops 2p and you could be forgiven for thinking that it might have a little slide but instead the fightback begins and I see this pushing to 30s by Friday. I applaud profit takers. I took some myself at 21p (obviously regret that now). It feels like we have some serious buyers though who are more than able to absorb these sells.
I am going to really try and avoid any further profit taking until we have had the expected positive RNS’s then review.
This dropped depressingly fast from late 30s to 17p on tiny volumes. Now we are benefiting the other way but on much higher volumes. There is no ceiling to this all the way to 37p as I see it and even though the recent rise has made TGR very heavy in my pf I see it as a simple trade to keep buying until at least 35p.
Obviously the company is worth more (I have 78p currently but did not price in China, Mozambique or dare I say downstream!!) but right now, just like when this was dropping like a stone, fundamentals are for another day. Technically this will rapidly get to high 30s. Imagine if that is the moment we release the debt funding RNS… or release tangibles on increased pricing we are getting…
Genghis. You are right to have reservations and perfectly in your right to constructively air them on this board. It is probably less valid if you have not participated in investor meetings etc though
My thoughts are the reservations here are overly priced in. If there were no reservations then share price here would be circa 70p even without China ban. That is my investment thesis.
…. But even if you weren’t investing but looking for a quick 20% it is clear to me here that the newsflow over next 4-6 weeks will be bullish. For example I would definitely want to be invested here the day debt finance gets announced or the day the VAT rebate lands etc.