Member Info for Skeletor

Unusually high volume today given no news. Would seem to be fairly equal sells to buys. Weird that a share that often has v low liquidity can all of a sudden find a big buyer and seller at the same time. All I can hope is that the seller is distressed (BAT??) and the buyer knows something we don’t (wonder if we all of a sudden get a Myles McNulty tweet 😂)

It would be unforgivable for the company to miss the Q3 targets and land that Miss upon us like a bombshell. I already feel the way they delayed telling us the Q1 miss was criminal. You are supposed to give the market material information as soon as possible so 6 weeks into the quarter you likely know you are missing and should say so. We then would know silence is a positive but instead we are left with a nagging fear that silence is then sitting on bad news….. I have to believe they would not do this again. The more nuanced fear is that they ARE hitting production or at least have the ability to hit it but the sales are not yet there to be had. Whilst we all know the. Graphite market is likely to become a sellers market I don’t believe it is right now.

@harchris, whilst hitting targets on production and sales is my preference by way of an update I actually think some sort of debt funding announcement (assuming terms are not horrendous) will give a more immediate bounce.

Tommorow. You need to back that up with links to evidence. I don’t recall individual seeking contracts ever being published by TGR so how you know we are selling at a discount i have no idea…. The avg realised price we get for our sales seems very much in line with other sellers and any available data on graphite prices (which is actually hard to find which in itself makes claims of a “discount” hard to prove)

This is a main market LSE company which is fully audited. You weren’t on this BB when the price was climbing a few weeks ago.

All the best.

Another positive announcement. The volumes are tiny on the down days here. So hopefully having another broker banging our drum will drive some institutional investment here via the open market.

Meanwhile accessing the bond markets for the capital we need to move forwards.

3 big RNS’s that I expect in next 5 weeks

1. News of debt funding to put to bed any capital concerns and ensure we move through the gears of ramping productions without deliberately having to slow it down

2. Update on new customers and confirmation that China halting graphite exports has indeed led to a materially improving market

3. £1m VAT rebate received.

Every chance that this slides a little further before the first of these arrive but the gamble is waiting for 1-2p discount. But risk missing on the 6-10p rise when the news comes through.

Ha ha. I can smell the desperation with some of the traders here who were perhaps hoping for another dip…. NANO has continuously advised that any orders in 2023 would be low volume so to now hit them over the head when they deliver exactly what they promised is ridiculous.

In fact there is a little bit more in this RNS which for the first time indicates how this could explode in 2025 and also does indicate it could be earlier if the tech takes off sooner than expected.

For me the biggest positive here is that they have constantly referenced “end 2023” and being a cynical investor of many small cap shares I was fully buckled in for the “will it, won’t it happen?” Debate all the way to 23rd Dec so to have got the announcement out mid Nov gives me more confidence than ever that we don’t have a load of wide boys on the board unlike lists of similar Mcap listed outfits.

I expect to see early 20s here soon (equal to cash of company). Even with the long time frame for significant revenues I would have hoped 10-15p enterprise value which would have us at 30-35p. Doubt that will happen until after the formal return to shareholders is announced.

Really positive. The fact they have significantly added cash and increased dividend through the traditional bleak qtr is huge.

I I’m particularly loving the increasing reference to mitigation measures to cope with future dry seasons.

The tone and language of these has completely changed. It’s is not staying down here.

Loving this at the moment.

Even today - it drops 2p and you could be forgiven for thinking that it might have a little slide but instead the fightback begins and I see this pushing to 30s by Friday. I applaud profit takers. I took some myself at 21p (obviously regret that now). It feels like we have some serious buyers though who are more than able to absorb these sells.

I am going to really try and avoid any further profit taking until we have had the expected positive RNS’s then review.

This dropped depressingly fast from late 30s to 17p on tiny volumes. Now we are benefiting the other way but on much higher volumes. There is no ceiling to this all the way to 37p as I see it and even though the recent rise has made TGR very heavy in my pf I see it as a simple trade to keep buying until at least 35p.

Obviously the company is worth more (I have 78p currently but did not price in China, Mozambique or dare I say downstream!!) but right now, just like when this was dropping like a stone, fundamentals are for another day. Technically this will rapidly get to high 30s. Imagine if that is the moment we release the debt funding RNS… or release tangibles on increased pricing we are getting…

Genghis. You are right to have reservations and perfectly in your right to constructively air them on this board. It is probably less valid if you have not participated in investor meetings etc though

My thoughts are the reservations here are overly priced in. If there were no reservations then share price here would be circa 70p even without China ban. That is my investment thesis.

…. But even if you weren’t investing but looking for a quick 20% it is clear to me here that the newsflow over next 4-6 weeks will be bullish. For example I would definitely want to be invested here the day debt finance gets announced or the day the VAT rebate lands etc.

I’m regretting selling the slice I had at 14p for 17p yesterday.

Dynamics totally changed now…. This share had 2 issues 1. Working capital funding 2. Ability to ramp up to full potential. Both issues will be solved through the China ban. Companies who need graphite will be told by TGR that we have loads of it in the ground “but here’s what we need from you for us to get it out the ground…” sellers market.

Absolutely no reason for this to be valued at 75p and that is based on 30k tonnes. Imagine if some big player decides they want to fund us to the 80k potential….

I can see the SP having a really good run now. I think a series of positive bits of news will come alongside the momentum of graphite. Issue will be profit takers who got in so cheap but hopefully not enough to ruin momentum.

This mornings RNS for most companies woudl read so positively but because our chairman and CEO has such a compulsive habit of declaring unachievable targets it is tarnished by the cloud of those being missed.

Good news re debt finance vs equity thereby quelling dilution fears. Problem is that missing targets becomes more serious when you have loans to repay…..

The mistake you are making here is basing any investment decisions off an anonymous forum. Fine to gauge sentiment or to allow comments to trigger further research or even to use just vent frustration/excitement with fellow investors but that should be the limit of how to use a forum like this one.

I do agree Harchris that there will likely be an upwards momentum until next updates (which will either multiply that momentum or reverse it). One potential hold back will be all the people who Bought BATs shares cheaply at or around 15p… even 18p offers a 20% profit and those. It as wedded to the TGR story will take that and run…. Aside from that I don’t see any other reason to sell pre update.

I am just watching the presentation.

The Minimum Guarantee payments have definitely hurt us and the fact that we are rid of 75% of those by Q4 and 90% by January is huge...

Winds of fortune can blow both ways. The comment made would have been valid and useful when people were paying £10 a share in the good times. SP is now priced for very poor fortune winds and a change in those winds combined with the improved contracts could go the other way very quickly.... Key is when it gets back to peak SP's is to remember the "Winds of fortune" comments and sell then!

Wondering if he is still a holder.

Hasn’t taken report down which I would expect him to do if he didn’t still believe in the contents but also has not commented on #TGR for months despite the volatility and some requests on Twitter I have seen from him to do so…. He did say he was taking one of those face to face meetings with Shishir and would comment after but he then didn’t.

Obviously obligation to comment although it is what his following and reasons for being on Twitter is there for.

You can also invent narrative to support either a bullish or bearish opinion as to the silence. E.g I don’t think he comments whilst he is buying I think he comments when he has stopped buying (and more sceptical people would say “selling”)

Genuine question…. If the rivers can no longer accommodate boats (as seems to be the case) does PTALs sales drop to zero or do we have a base amount that does not rely on rivers? If so what is that base level? Thanks

Exactly.

I have consistently said on this board that I would much prefer we concentrate on being a boring graphite producer growing to 80k+ per year and throwing off free cash flow before we even start to refocus on downstream mergers etc.

The boost in SP TGR got back when we all got excited by collaborations with Rolls Royce etc was at a time when a small Mcap company only had to RNS that their dog had farted in order to get a +15% rise in share price.

We are in more serious times now where the companies that get valued seriously can demonstrate self sustaining cash flow and low liabilities. TGR appear to be quite close to this milestone so in my opinion it would be a shame to confuse the message at such a delicate point.

When we are making cash like KIST or SQZ or PTAL then Shishir can decide to either return cash to shareholders or invest in downstream.