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G_G_G - they've got permission to buy back 44 million shares. And people think they're aiming for that limit - but they're not; they're only using 1 million/month. I've asked #PTAL IR about this, but they've yet to answer. They answer most questions, but are not always fast. I'd encourage you to ask them as well.
Anyways, the current program runs out May 17th so I'm sure we'll get an updated program soon.
Last year, they stated: "The Company believes that, at times, the prevailing share price does not reflect the underlying value of the common shares and the repurchase of its common shares for cancellation represents an attractive opportunity to improve PetroTal's per share metrics and thereby increase the value of the common shares." The price is not much higher now (though we got a load of dividend, don't forget - but production is much! and brent is a bit stronger). So it's even more true now than it was last year.
From the latest update re. erosion: "Erosion Control Update: The Company is progressing its preventive erosion control program aimed at protecting the Bretana oilfield and nearby community. PetroTal expects to commence project construction in mid to late Q3 2024; while permitting is ongoing, detailed engineering is being finalized, and long lead items are being procured" - so that's not what's limiting the production now.
Interesting times . . .
With GW possibly using his Meridian as workhorse I like the thought of him tying in PTAL with AXL across the border. If his ~£11m stake in the previously owned Canacol investment is confirmed a potential PTAL/AXL axis should be borne in mind. MA will be in regular contact with our NEC.
"Gavin Wilson is an Investment Manager for Meridian Group of Companies, a private investment company, which has a significant shareholding in the Company. Mr. Wilson was the Founder and Manager of RAB Energy and RAB Octane, listed investment funds, from 2004 until 2011. From 1992 to 2003, he worked with Canaccord Capital London, an investment banking company, as Head of Oil and Gas, responsible for sales and Corporate Brokering/Finance".
[My point on river works might be out of line: it was based on a dredger visual alongside a semi-loaded barge.]
I'm unsure what their allowable limit is on buybacks, but they need to throw some of their cash at them. In general I think buy-backs are a complete waste of time and money. However when a company is this under-valued, illiquid, and has so much cash in the bank, it's a no-brainer. However it has to be done in a way where they are taking 5-10% of shares in issue off the table each year. Otherwise it's a complete w@nk, like now. Either push the BBs to their limit, or give the cash back to shareholders with increased quarterly dividends. But having it sitting there doing nothing is plain stupid. GLA
The number of shares is irrelevant its all about market cap. its the most frustrating share with all that money in the bank, shipping 18,000 bopd at around $88 , thats $1.8 mill pper day, we should be at 65p minimum..
Do you mean production or shipments? Anyway expecting the work to be flexed around barge movements as there are naturally periods of lower activity with a relatively long round trip.
Brent almost touching $90. Will be interesting where it closes tonight.
GLA
I thought the erosion control was planned to start in Q3, to tie in with the lower river levels and production. Why start now when Ptal should be pumping out as much oil as they can. Production for April 24 is well down on April 23
US crude stockpiles fell by 6.37 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 1.6 million barrel build. Hence Brent is back over $89 again.
. . . looks as though we will have to be satisfied with ~16k - 17k daily shipments for the time being.
I had overlooked the erosion control works and realise now that there is only one supply boom from the eastern jetty. The western pier is confined to goods receipts and other services. Roll on the next stage commencing May 8.
Shares Buy back program is a joke - it will never reduce the amount of shares in issue - it has failed - time for a new bull in the ring - REVERSE SPLIT
I tend to believe that they are targeting growth with some acquisitions.
Time will tell
Maybe you should take a look at the major shareholders before that RNG talk.
Urch is over the top, I never was a big fan (warrant sht show and premature dividend + the whole non-hedged when in heavy-debt - dilution we got). That was on his watch. However cudos to him for being one of the original investors - he certainly can see potential (better than risks, I might add).
These are two people brought in to look for a buyer ...Ptal is officially on the chopping block I'd say
I'd certainly hope they're going to hold the dividend at $2c. Ideally they'll increase the payout with a special divi if they're restricted in what they can spend on buy-backs. Very good value again down here. Anything below 48p is a steal and paying 13.5% yield. Hopefully Barclays and II are finally going to shift the remainder of my ISA across and I can access some cash to add here. GLA
The level of buy backs since the programme started is OK, but if you factor in the final batch of warrants and the PSUs, we now still have more shares in issue than at the start!
On the plus side the weakening pound against the dollar will increase dividend payments.
Would be nice to establish a 2c base dividend per quarter, and then put the rest into buy backs, if they are allowed by TSX. Perhaps with a policy to review the dividend annually, and hopefully start an incremental dividend policy as well. Last year (4 quarterly dividends) was 8c in total.
GLA
Are these guys able to increase the value of their daily buy backs? Absolutely pitiful at the moment, and almost pointless.
The 7 pence share price split after hours sure "sells" PetroTal as a goody
Webcast 09/05/24
https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/660bc6a92eae5d4dcf2e6319
We seem very price sensitive to changes in the oil price. Too much IMO. Anyway, oil price jumped again and looks like an escalation in the ME. Was rather hoping someone may see sense and try to calm things. Seems unlikely now.
GLA
Viable, I only have a small position in I3E (25K IIRC) - nice move these last days, but I really don't think there's much clarity yet. Also I don't like the pronounced focus on dividend while it's evident share buybacks would be better (at the very least a combination). I prefer #PTAL over I3E, and I expect TXP to finally rerate later this year, once new production wells are hooked up. I think TXP will be a multibagger in a few years. I'm most impressed by VLE Valeura, what an amazing boss they have. Fantastic journey - and still rising (at least it should be). I bought mid '22 and it's 8x'd so far (!). I have enough TXP but for a potential rocket (like VLE) I'm not looking hard at I3E right now. It's too murky for me and I haven't really done enough research tbh.
Item
a) the document added to the website indicates how far and professional the company has (be)come. I cannot recall any AIM listed outfit with a similar ethos. Having been here since 14p I regret some tinkering along the way
b) the most recent satellite pic of Bretana shows a now very busy quayside with 4 x 20k and 2 x 6k barges alongside
c) I hope James Perez and brethren have finally been muzzled at Iquitos, Requeta and Saramuro
d) Sturm, are you keeping an eye on i3E . . . and am I correct in guessing TXP will get its act together within 6 months ?
Ask your broker. They do things differently.
This is a Canadian share
So is there a Withholding Tax deducted from the dividend if not held in a SIPP ?
Is it a deduction of 15% or 25% on the dividend ?
I agree. Reckon around 49p will now be forming as a long term support level. Should see 55p by the time the next dividend is paid in June IMO.
Onwards!
GLA
I'll gladly be adding on the way down to 45p but doubt I'll get so lucky. Reckon we'll be range bound between 48-50p until we get news. Dividend should be a good one this quarter (and next). Reckon we'll pick up 6-7% just on these payments alone. SP should be looking to break ATHs based on past v current performance. With poo staying above $80 for the remainder of the year, and no local crazies, I see this as an easy 25-50% gain by year end. When you consider 10% of that is dividends +25% should be a cake walk. GLA
Oh twist my knickers - we nearly had it - 51 pence SP but the oxygen ran out - next time TenSingh we get it - the gold - now for the "Cresta" Banana Bob Sled run back to 45 pence.