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Charlie156, even with the excisting field and no extra CAPEX (assuming they just maintain the field, which is 25 mio USD/year), Bretana would produce for decades and be a veritable cash monster.
We can hope to see some growth from Bretana, the next years, but the truth is that we don't need growth to justify the present SP.
Trinity doesn't have much 2P. I don't give a flying f... about 2c in this case - everybody and their mom knows that TXP ressources on the other hand will grow a lot this year. TXP could/should be rated 3+ times higher from the 2 wells that are drilled but waiting to be tested. Trin is going nowhere. So why is this an interesting trade now? TXP is basically paying 3 times (from underrated SP) for a company that can't grow and has problematic fields? Timing is bad - and they've wasted management ressources on the wrong thing again. Give it half a year and it wouldn't be 1:1.5 but 1:0.25. That tax asset isn't going anywhere.
If this was just as good for TXP as for TRIN both shares would react the same way. Or Trin would be up 40% and TXP up 10%, reflecting the relative size. Honestly, 25% dilution on a low and undervalued SP isn't something you can "wash" into something brilliant. Timing is wrong. Management focus is wrong. TXP have plenty on the plate and not delivering on anything. They've not even an overview of the assets they'll be developing the next 5-10 years. This is buying a cat in a sack. If TXP were trading @ 1£ and had Cascadura in the bag it would be fine. The assets TRIN brings to the table is a passive tax loss; I doubt we'll see much growth from their assets the next decade. There's a reason TRIN SP is low. And another reason why TXP is trading at this level AND THIS EXACT acquisition just proves what issues PB has with keeping focus and delivering on promises.
I'm super disappointed. TXP has one job really: exploit Cascadura and then grow from there. Meaning we should have plenty cash end 2025. This acquisition is ill timed and moves focus yet again.
25% dilution at a point when they should be creating shareholder value instead of fecking around.
And TXP has so many other targets to explore the next decade, so the timing is really bad. Cashflow alone could pay for Trin in one quarter in 2025. Instead we get 25% diluted.
This REALLY is a bad timing. They should focus on bringing Cascadura to 200 mmcf. Then this would be a 4-5% dillutive trade, not a 20%
It's demoralising.
PB would rather build empires with a 20 year timeframe instead of building shareholder value now?
After a couple (or 3) ER's with fine numbers most people will either have forgotten or forgiven PB for his PR strategy. EOY I hope we'll all think he's brilliant. It's like football: You're never better than your latest match.
No volume. So what's the real SP? It's hardly traded now, it's more a few people in the corner shuffling pocket change around. We need news and volume before we get a fair price (1£ or at least 1 CAD would be nice after Q1 in 2 weeks).
Rylidan, let's say you have 91.500 shares. And then the company reduces the number of shares through buybacks from 915 million to 800 million, while paying you 5% in dividend. You could then reduce your share count to 80.000 and maintain the same ownership of PTAL and the same dividend (in £, it will increase per share). YOU now get to decide when to sell and pay taxes.
I'm paying 42% on dividend & share income. So delaying taxes in very welcome. That's most efficiently done through share buy backs. I'm disappointed that they're allowed to buy back 44 million and fall so far below the target - getting extra dividend on top of the 1.5 US cent is nice, but paying tax prematurely is not. And as G_G_G mentions; when the cash flow is so strong and P/E so low, it's simply stupid not to do buy backs if you want to build LT shareholder value.
I'd like to increase my ownership; but I prefer to do so via share buybacks. Buying more shares isn't attractive for me, with the 42% dividend tax. So ATM my dividend is going elsewhere; if they were serious about buy backs and really did go for 5% per year (or at least 40 million) I'd use the normal dividend (1.5c less tax) to increase my position.
G_G_G - they've got permission to buy back 44 million shares. And people think they're aiming for that limit - but they're not; they're only using 1 million/month. I've asked #PTAL IR about this, but they've yet to answer. They answer most questions, but are not always fast. I'd encourage you to ask them as well.
Anyways, the current program runs out May 17th so I'm sure we'll get an updated program soon.
Last year, they stated: "The Company believes that, at times, the prevailing share price does not reflect the underlying value of the common shares and the repurchase of its common shares for cancellation represents an attractive opportunity to improve PetroTal's per share metrics and thereby increase the value of the common shares." The price is not much higher now (though we got a load of dividend, don't forget - but production is much! and brent is a bit stronger). So it's even more true now than it was last year.
From the latest update re. erosion: "Erosion Control Update: The Company is progressing its preventive erosion control program aimed at protecting the Bretana oilfield and nearby community. PetroTal expects to commence project construction in mid to late Q3 2024; while permitting is ongoing, detailed engineering is being finalized, and long lead items are being procured" - so that's not what's limiting the production now.
Source is probably Malcy, stating April 19th: "I met with Paul Baay, CEO and James Shipka, COO this week as they were in London meeting investors."
They can't reveal anything that would be considered "insider" information on such meetings.
So it really shouldn't affect SP much. II's probably just say "show me the money" and wait for ER's demonstrating cash flow.
Right now, storytelling doesn't cut it. But they might get on the radar, so they can call II's in two weeks and ask "Do you get it now!!"?
Did we get a date for the Q1 ER yet? Could it be as early as May 10th? Was the 12th last year (both Fridays).
That's just 2 weeks away :) Hope we get some FOMO before that. Just a repetition of the 2024 guidance (9.400 BOE's) should be enough to rerate the SP a bit.
Maybe you should take a look at the major shareholders before that RNG talk.
Urch is over the top, I never was a big fan (warrant sht show and premature dividend + the whole non-hedged when in heavy-debt - dilution we got). That was on his watch. However cudos to him for being one of the original investors - he certainly can see potential (better than risks, I might add).
Q1 earnings should be here in 3 weeks. Numbers should be fine and maybe a turning point. I think they'll also reiterate guidance plus updates on the new wells might give some support. Drilling 2 Coho wells next... (cf. preliminary Capex budget)... I'm not a fan. Let's see what they do.
No volume these days.
Anyways, what's worth remembering is that guidance remains the same for the full year; meaning the work with chokes etc. hasn't changed production plans. And that they forecast wells - new ones included - to perform. So that's 9.400 BOE's per day; 2K oil? and 48 mmcf gas. 40 million USD EBITDA? It's going to be a busy second half of 2024 for sure. Market cap 250 mio USD. One job... drill to fill. ASAP. (Or rather - sooner than that). P/E for H2 2024 is certainly appealing; 2025 will be even better. Question is how much it rerates before those new wells are hooked up.