Member Info for Sturm

At least Liz Truss would have paid VAT money.

Incredible that 11 mio USD is withheld by the government.

And no, that's not something PB can be blamed for. Not something ANYONE could have planned for. That's simply not a part of "DYOR" but a Force majeure event. What it at least means is that noone here will invest anything in Trinidad anytime soon (if ever).

“Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 8.0 million barrels during the week ending May 29, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 433.7 million barrels, according to government data, which is now 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.”

From oilprice.com: Exxon SVP Neil Chapman warned at the Bernstein conference that global oil inventories are approaching 'unheard of' lows and models show Brent crude could spike to $150-$160 once the operational floor is reached.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said the market's shock absorbers have been 'steadily drawn down' and expects direct upward pressure on physical prices in June and July, with Hormuz still blocking 12-13 million barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs data shows global inventories plunged a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May alone, while JPMorgan previously calculated only 0.8 billion of 8.4 billion total global barrels were realistically available before operational stress.

Neil Chapman, SVP of Exxon this morning at the Sanford Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, yesterday: (Sorry for the long quote)

""Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they've all run down. And running down those inventories has mitigated or offset, supplemented by the release of strategic petroleum reserves, which most of the Western countries have done. All of that has mitigated the impact. You can model this. We've modeled it. I think a lot of people in the industry have modeled it.

We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up. I mean, I think dated Brent, most people, well, a model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160.

The models would tell you that. And then what happens is when the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance. Prices go so high, it becomes unaffordable. And that's what happens. And so we're at that level right now.

And I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 for the last whatever it is, six weeks, has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can't last forever. So we'll see what happens. And predicting this and the exact timing, it's always a challenge. But that's the way we see the picture""

At some point (soon), paper market collides with the physical market. Let's see how much SPR & commercial storage will carry the paper market.

I actually prefer 85-90 as a stable Brent price (over time), but the present price (92ish) makes no sense to me.

Quite interesting that Brent isn't higher atm. SPR Declined 9,100,000 Barrels last week.

US red flags: No nukes, open SofH

Iran red flags: Keep enriched uranium and control SofH

Trump: Deal is nearly done.

Iran: Nah....

Papermarket: We believe Trump, he's in charge (???)

Really?

What happens less than a month from now when the total draw is around 1.500.000.000 barrels of oil?

That VAT money would be really nice right now. Feels like they're very close to some real cash generating events, but just need a small amount of cash to easy pressure from banks, etc. to increase the runway by a couple of quarters. Several triggers, zero impact on SP at this moment. Would also be nice with a +15% FOMO Friday in Canada :D

SP doesn't really reflect the impact from the Brent price - It's pretty much flat since US attacked Iran. If we get good news from CR3, there's still some OP catching up to do. And it's not like Brent is going back to 65 anytime soon.

This damn war, that means OP is 100 instead of 60 is why the SP isn't 1£?

I wonder if the OP will tick up once the last shipments from the Persian Gulf arrive and it becomes clear that refineries can't produce what we need (incl. fertilizer and natural gas)? Brent around 95 is a bit underwhelming considering demand hasn't changed and this is by far the largest disruption - ever. Bigger than the Ruzzian invasion in 2022 where we had Brent >>100 for half a year. And that didn't really destroy supply, it just moved oil around and gave China and India cheap oil. Ofc. the economy was steaming post covid at that time, but supply destruction will hurt more in the end.

What a drop. Looks like Iran got the upper hand from that 10 point list.

Brent Q4 forward contract below 80 - that's a bit optimistic IMV with all the damage done - but let's see.

Nice we got that small uptick yesterday, O&G is probably getting hammered a bit today.

So this dude allegedly jumps at random shares that's been beaten down for no or any particular reason, and then tell us all, that we need to go do more research and we're blind to the risk.

You couldn't make this up.... thx for the laugh.

Can't believe they're trading at post CR3 RNS still. Well is cleaning up, they also hit something at Karamat and there's lot to perforate if needed. Compressor incoming, VAT an upside joker (anytime now, Rodney) and prices are just fabolous. Very nice fresh legacy wells on top of it all.

I'd like us to get back to the price level 2 years ago this year. I'll be disappointed if we're not above 0.4 CAD EOY.

DYOR etc.

In line with expectations. Q1 and Q2 will be much better due to the increase in price and new wells.

Nice increase in revenue, more to perforate if needed and likely a good portion of NGL. Legacy great and Compressor incoming. All fine and more to come.

Double avatars should ofc. be reported for misleading and manipulation attempts.

(And of course they should buy every share they can now, with USD above the restricted/favored amount. They can keep them in the vault for future use/acquisitions if they need to. Or replace some of the "cash-on-hand" money with shares-in-the-vault).

Time to show they believe in the case.

They'll probably also pay royalties from the Brent price, not the hedged price. So a higher Brent price costs money.

I can't see this reaching new highs or rerating fully before they raise guidance to the old levels (>17K BOPD). On the other hand it's hard to imagine (meaning I think it's unlikely) that Brent drops below 72ish this year even if the war ends today. And where's the river money going to end now? And how much CAPEX will they need to control Amazon?

They're fortunately selling at brent prices, so WTI doesn't matter.

Like I said, could be a margin call on something else, forcing some poor investor to sell the lot. Also could be someone willing to take a big loss to buy the deal of a century somewhere else. I guess it takes an employee at Scotia to answer what might be the case. But I strongly suspect it will be forgotten Monday evening.

I suspect it was a triggered stop-loss (I never use them). In the first place someone had to sell and cover (or buy) something else in a jiff. Or an error, like the one that caused BTC drop not too long ago.

I really can't see any bank - here Scotia Capital Inc. - selling at a +10% loss willingly. What client would accept that? So a bank taking a 10% hit on

What would be the business case?

Stag, 2025 will hardly show net profit. DD&A (16 m?) drags the result down. But just like a car loses value every month that's just paper money (in the short run). CR and guidance & plans will be more important for the SP IMO. Gas price fluctuates so what they think 2026 will bring is just >>> important than 2025 numbers.