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Thanks BigB, is a reverse split something that has been mooted? It sounds interesting and has the bod mentioned this? Thanks again.
LongFell - PetroTal SP is massively undervalued for the production levels achieved.
Buy Back is not increasing SP - the buy back " holy monkee" is neutered by the PSU share issues every quarter - PetroTal is never going to break under 900 million shares on the current dance band tune.
In fact the SP is degrading under the current buy back no matter what the SturmVogel conjures up as a scenario Dividend / Buy Back Hocus Pocus.
And as said by u Longfell ex Dividend day drop in SP ???? - knock 1.5 off the current SP Bid sees u at 44p - how's that figure on the pre Quarterly RNS 50p high.
The money is talking the Bool Sheets is walking - reverse split at least 4 to 1 to kill the ridiculous float - It will not affect % Dividend pay out BUT it will definitely kill the SP slow death. GTE is prima facie evidence of a reverse split rocketing SP
I meant to add it's akin to the share price dropping on dividend day being the same amount as is being forked out.
My view is that buybacks only make sense if the stock is massively undervalued because otherwise its just a neutral move. The money's gone as well remember. I think spending for growth makes more sense. Btw I've started looking at these. How undervalued do you think this company is? Any comments will be much appreciated.
I think the main issue with buybacks and people criticising this is that people don't really understand what the underlying mechanic is. The effect is that you're investing passively (pre tax) and increasing your ownership in a company through buybacks (there's a lot of other effects, but this is at the heart).
So what does that mean? Well, #PTAL could (in theory) have spent 12,89 cCAD per share (incl. jun 24 money) on buy backs instead of dividend = 0.1289CAD*915.000.000 shares = 117.943.500 CAD. Assuming 0.7/share since they had money to begin buybacks, that equals 117.943.500/0.7 = 168.490.714 shares bought back. Meaning the share count would not be 915.000.000 but 746.509.286. That's a reduction of 18.4% (also means that each remaining share is worth not 18.4% but 22.6% more).
So this is what people screaming "dividend dividend dividend" don't get:
As an investor with 100.000 shares you could have sold 18.400 shares and STILL OWN the EXACT same part of the company. That would net you 18.400*0.7 = 12.880 CAD.... or the same as you would have received in dividend.
Of course the general assumption is that the price would increase per share, since the value of each remaining share increases. Meaning you would probably earn more.
Only prerequisite is really that the share is cheap for this to make sense. I think we all agree that's the case with #PTAL.
Also, assuming they at some point stop buying back shares, the dividend per share will increase - in this examply by PERMANENTLY 22.6%. In other words: You'd get 22.6% more in each and every future dividend payment, if you skipped 5 quarters of dividend. (That's the "this share is cheap" proof).
So of course you could "just" spend your dividend on buying more shares yourself. But that's going to be after tax. Some people only waste 15%, for me it's 42%. What that means for accumulating wealth is obvious. During share buy backs you can just sell what you need or want at your own leisure instead of getting taxed on dividend along the way.
I also did suggest to them that they should buy back the 66 million investor warrants when it was an option. But they failed to do that - honestly they're not really RI friendly. Personally I'm not increasing my position here because of the lack of buybacks. Oh, and I guess there'll now be some ranting by people who didn't read or understand this ;)
Shorts could reduce further. But I don't think numbers are material and I think if you press this idea of shorts being a significant issue here you will only worry investors for no good reason.
Yes agreed could be many reasons why this is open. They could even be trading against a long position, possibly in a different currency. Still a chunk to buy back, and the fact it's reducing is good.
...to hedge against something etc. Who knows. Don't think it tells you anything useful.
Sorry split post, premature posted when typing.
Some traders will close their short, but others will open new short. Maybe they think the chart is bearish, maybe they think oil price will fall, maybe they want
Agreed it's a total position reported on twice a month. Still 4.8m to buy back though!
Rylidan, that's the total short not an individual position that's short. And its less than 1% of shares. Traders trade, there's always likely to be traders willing to bet on any share price going down.
Riddels old chap are u aiming for the Bono pointed hat with a D award ??? 4.8 million shares short on a 914 million share float is hardly going to swamp the dud out canoe.
PSU Quarterly award volumes at nearly 10 million +++++ are twice the short volume.
Thankfully I split my holdings years back when GTE and Ptal divorced held 50/50 both companies and do I have to tell u which company on a reverse split is no the rocket ship on SP - get it over and done - reverse split none of the granny club arguments to avoid are valid.
Below is the table from the OTC markets. Looks like short opened some time ago and is slowly reducing. They have 4.8m to buy back. Not an issue, but you always need to be aware that the market can move in unexpected ways when theres a shorter around! It does explain some unexpected moves though.
SHORT INTEREST
DATE SHORT INTEREST % CHANGE AVG. DAILY SHARE VOL SPLIT NEW ISSUE
04/30/2024 4,810,994 -5.51 212,905 No No
04/15/2024 5,091,372 -6.56 551,186 No No
03/28/2024 5,449,005 -9.43 440,014 No No
03/15/2024 6,016,551 -1.73 483,158 No No
02/29/2024 6,122,453 -3.20 636,544 No No
02/15/2024 6,325,110 2.73 423,695 No No
01/31/2024 6,156,863 4.69 155,562 No No
01/12/2024 5,880,925 -5.19 77,734 No No
Def. not saying the erosion issue should be side-stepped. That to me is a no-brainer and simply must be done if they want to keep operating in the area. It's more the fact that we're half way through Q2 with Brent averaging $85 and likely 18kbopd. So they know the next quarter will have strong cash generation. Plus they have $85m. The could have paid a 2c dividend and this would have little impact on cash pile now and in the near future. If they're worried about cash they should collar 30-50% of our production. There is no question in my mind this should be done to protect production (stay flat), dividend and BBs. The rest of production is free to peg the market. Personally I'd collar 9kbopd. AIMHO GLA
Spongebob's been in the Crusty Crab at lunchtime. He's on a roll. Must be looking today back in again!
The entire cash hand outs via PSU's is out of control - the award is not a fixed sum or an amount of shares - it's some probable award at the control of the company and no one knows what it will cost in 3 years - as for dividend that's a crumb thrown out to share holders while the Share Price retreats - even if PetroTal spent the entire free cash on share buy backs the probabilty is that it would only reduce the number of shares in issue by about 160 million shares - want a real Share Price that will attract institutions on other exchanges - reverse split the shares to above $4 and list - months ago I said this won't break 50p - and here we are travelling backwards
You'd think if employees are awarded shares, then its in their own interest also to increase SP price for them to sell it at higher price so not sure i agree that they aren't concerned.
They are being cautious with the working capital so do understand that if CAPEX is increasing from expectation, its not sensible to be increasing div/bb. The large CAPEX to me seems like short term pain for 5-10 yr of gains. If the erosion issue is left untouched, we are talking about complete stop in operations with it detreating at such speed.
One thing's for sure, this mgt team aren't particularly concerned about the sp. To not increase the dividend or buy backs when they have the money and dropped some unfortunate news about increased costs was a mistake that caused a reversal. But to then award themselves a ton of shares the very next day is very poor form. Thankfully the fundamentals here are very hard to ignore. If we drop below 45p I'll be adding another 100-150k shares. AIMHO GLA
Https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=f8685b12-e878-41fb-80b8-b8d6e05542d0
link seems to suggest formula for that is 2% x (FV of BB- FV of shares issued) so not sure if the PSU redeemed reduce that.
Even if it doesnt, they are currently spending $12m so additional tax of $240k isnt material imo at the amounts they spend + relative to this suppressed SP, to me it will be no brainer.
LSE, I agree that buybacks are preferable over time assuming the Company's earnings continue to grow.
It should at least be be noted though that Canada has introduced a 'buyback tax' of 2%. I believe this is applicable whether the shares are bought on the London or Toronto exchange.
Barnyards - I agree - pick up on the fact the "river BANK erosion control" sum allocated is about the same as free cash available and you begin to wonder what BANK is the money going too.
And click on that by next Quarter another 9 million +++++ PSU will be granted and the feeble minded think its OK as they wont be cashed in onsome hobbled notion that they are 3 years down the road and MAY be 0 - haaa haaaa - PetroTal is being cleaned out money wise.
Picked up 40k @ 45.9p. Seems a bargain given the recent news and expansion possibilities. Received a very decent 5.4p per share after withholding tax in the past year, so very happy here. It's moved into top up territory for me at a time when I have profits to take elsewhere. Jackpot!
GLA
Well in my case, i would prefer they purchase more shares vs issuing higher div due to 15% withholding tax on dividend payments in UK ISA. without the bb, share count would be 930m+.
Agree that bb figure is strange though i believe in the past they have done similar error in earlier RNS's and then corrected it in following reports. In both yesterday RNS plus the PowerPoint now available on their website they have it as 5.2m (RNS) and 5.169 (PowerPoint) so would go with those figures.
LSE202020 I have only taken based on the RNS's issued - in fact the 11th April 2024 RNS stated;
During Q1 2024, the Company purchased 4.7 million shares at an average price of US$0.58/share pursuant to the share buyback program.
Yet in the 9th May RNS they stated repurchased 5.2 million common shares in Q1 2024, so which is it, their figures seem to be all over the place.
either way their figure is only 2 million different to mine and I have only taken operational RNS's.
However the basis of the concern stands that being there is no benefit to shareholders in this buyback program as actually the company is effectively just buying back shares to give to themselves, so indeed its just a transfer of cash from retail investors to the officers and employees.
The money used to repurchase shares would be better spent on increased dividends if they really wanted to support the investors, but they won't do that as that would mean they would have to buy their own shares, god forbid.
Barnyards- no idea where you are getting this idea that they hold them in treasury.. those purchased via bb are cancelled outright