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Same old Blaaah blaaah postings and reality is SP is dead around 44p
They are steaming ahead since the restart with figures up to 23rd Mar.
Last 7 days average: 19,616
Mar average: 15,597
Year to date: 17,739
If memory servers me correct, Aidecobap has always been at the forefront of making threats to PTAL to cause social unrest but the actual citizens around Bretana in past 1+ years have been very happy with the set up of the social fund.
Aidecobap's views dont tend to align with the locals for a while now is basically my understanding of the matter so any protests by them would be met with counter unrest by locals.
I dont think PetroTal has done anything wrong. And they've been helping with spraying in recent Denge outbreak and social fund now has various significant projects going in a quite small community. So most locals should've experienced direct benefits from having Petrotal around and that wasnt the case a year ago.
I notice a new advisory committee for social fund made up from representatives from 18 districts of Puinahua is to be announced next month. Advisory committee of locals should I think help to ensure they are really involved and see where money is going.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIra-SGbUAAjRGz?format=jpg&name=900x900
With extra barge capacity, decent river levels, more wells coming on stream, a healthy oil price, no social unrest, reduced time at Manaus to unload the oil, these are close to optimum conditions for Ptal to make hay while the sun shines. Peak production was 26,000bpd in July 22, off the back of wells 8H,9H,10H,11H, which all significantly exceeded expectations. There have been 6 further wells since which have all performed in line with expectations. It would be good to beat that 26,000 figure soon.
If you're concerned about that you should IMHO not invest in PTAL. I don't think there are more investors left, who doesn't understand the risk of social disruption.
Anyone concerned by Aidecobap latest threat posted on Facebook?
Https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/arrow-exploration-the-low-cost-producer-positioned-for-significant-growth-in-the-llanos-basin
Objective of the above is to extrapolate Andes' watershed characteristics and stratigraphy into our neck of the woods. MA has added considerably to my grasp of geology, including erosion edges, pools, traps, etc. Recommended listening.
https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos
Steady barge numbers continue. Looking to alternative route development as catalyst.
Going into 2024 things already look very good indeed, production is higher than ever with the 17H well already doing 3,300 b/d pre ESP installation and the 18H well spudded on March 5th, and prices are high…
In addition, diversifying routes for existing and maybe more crude in the future has led to discussions on the OCP export route and the pilot project through Ecuador and that may not be the only route diversification.
Given the yield, accentuated by the buy-back PetroTal offers exceptional capital and income return, my Target Price of 150p still stands, but maybe if the company decided to add a little, say sizzle to the portfolio then heaven knows what might happen.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/03/oil-price-petrotal-touchstone-challenger-gkp/
Waiting for the rerating here. these numbers are pretty good
I have pored over the latest, revised presentation which crystallises what has gone before. PTAL will remain a p/f fixture. Rather than feather my own nest a permitted £3k pa allowance will continue to go into family members' a/cs. The company will be around for many years and I hope Manolo, having acquired his father's skills, will be passing them on to his daughter.
Among the incidentals is re-evaluation of the existing rig; it's been a reliable workhorse but a bit slow when compared to latest rig performance elsewhere. An example is AXL's Llanos rig which reaches TD in 7/10 days (although at admittedly shallower depths) for verticals and another 10 for lateral extensions.
Another conundrum is a question on multi-stacked possibilities at Bretaña. Essentially it's part of the same foreland. Concentration is on one (Vivian) formation whereas Marshall Abbott speaks of five oil-bearing horizons.
Current exercise is adding to AXL and i3E, the latter having overcome AB bottlenecks and continuation of dividend policy.
Great update, and I say that because their is no fireworks there, and no surprises. No promising the earth, but never being sidetracked by the realities/variances concomitant with their locale. Just boringly delivering predictability.
And the SP may be moving barely/sideways, but I like that. Because the mgmt culture is such not to promise the earth, a ine off 5 bagger, but be disciplined and deliver a healthy sustainable long term return.
Evidenced by spending a fifth of their mkt cap on capex a year. By projecting on $77 bbl despite reporting figures where based on a realised price of $81.05 (down from $84.95) and current oil price being above their $77. By their not spurting production upwards, before managing/diversifying product routes to market..By reducing their bonds. By retaining £70m cash for eventualities. By maintaining the dividend, at a healthy level, but retaining flexibility with cash for eventualities.
This is a mgmt/CO whose discipline/pragmatism is to under promises and over deliver. Frankly, and delightfully, i've filed this holding in the boringly predictable put away and forgot about draw.
No boom or bust here. In long term enriching income, I trust
Well the very next slide mentions ESP is to be installed later this month so i think that answers it! This is on natural flow only. They are waiting for few more days to switch on pump and Manolo just confirmed its right in line with expectations.
I have put forward the question RE: 17H production few moments ago on the webcast . Lets see if they pick up my question :)
Onp only possibly third quarter
I am happy to hover the dividend and in this oil price environment liquidity sweep payment for sure in the next 6 months. they just want to keep about 60 million liquidity. rest distributed to share holders.
Hope the share price gradually picks up.
Darkangelv2 - I agree 100%, mentioned it a billion times I think.
It's not needed with the present volume. Cost does scale rather well though, so maybe if PTAL adds a lot of production AND payment terms are changed (FOB - once it's "on board" it's not our oil and must be paid in full) - then ONP becomes relevant. Bargaining power (more buyers) and diversification (less dependency on one channel) are also "upsides" to future ONP usage. But it's definitely not needed ATM.
Re. 17H: Looks to be weaker than previous wells - but we can't expect every new well to perform like the best P1 wells. H17 is on the northeastern outskirts (it seems) of the field, so it might be the last drilled there? Plenty of P2 wells to drill still, though, at Bretana.
Do we still think ONP is critical? Given:
- Manolo expanding export routes - possible to keep pace with desired output?
- Dry season mitigation being developed via trunking depots
- ONP offers lower netbacks & delayed payment
- Propensity for ONP to go offline with our oil trapped inside, unsold!
My biggest take on this is the future... current production at 20k bopd and a new well to come on stream in mid May with a brent forecast at $77 and currently at $85, this has a very bright future indeed. The 64 thousand dollar question is will the ONP get back on line, if so the numbers could rocket. another question is, if production goes to 25ooo bopd cn they ship it fast enough? all to be revealed. but the downside is small from here
Roxi, the less of you, the better. Please don't do to this forum, what you've done to the JSE one.
Ther is no pleasing Charie, he always wants more, should have been named" Oliver"
Assuming netbacks of $45, even at current 3,300 bpd, it would pay out in just over 90 days after which its pure profit.
CHARLIE THEY ARE JUST CLEANING UP THE NEW WELL OF DRILLING FLUIDS
Considering the challenges over the dry season, that was quite a year. I think their Brent forecast is rather conservative at $77, and they are allowing for another really bad dry season.
I'm happy!
Only minor quibble, 17H production since March 1 has averaged 3300, which in comparison to other new wells seems on the low side.
2024 a record start, av. 19,000 bopd in first two months , oil over $80+, robust cash position, continued progress on oil export pilot through Ecuador, will continue to prioritize derisking oil sales so PetroTal can embark on new production growth projects.
The Company commenced drilling well 18H on March 5, 2024 The well is expected to take approximately 60 days to drill and complete with initial production estimated to occur by mid May 2024.
PetroTal is pleased to announce continued advancement on the OCP pilot oil shipment with the signing of three key approvals. In early February 2024, the Company received approval letters from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment and Ecuadorian Navy along with the successful signing of a use of port agreement with Petroecuador to start the 100,000 bbl pilot. Pending success of the first pilot, the Company anticipates an additional pilot in the second half of 2024 with recurring sales expected in Q4 2024.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1770711771440939211