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Looking at the SP this prospectus can't come soon enough ! Hopefully Monday 13th July.

Yep - it’s all about China ! From 11.4mb/d pre-war imports to just 5.8 mb/d now. They’ll be back !

Iran/ Hormuz isn’t over yet and (IMO) will rumble on for many years with varying degrees of intensity. So I am truly shocked that the risk premium has all but evaporated.

I thoroughly recommend the video posted by Modestus yesterday.

In the nicest possible way George - feck off !

Most of that forecast surplus assumes gulf states production restarting quickly, Hormuz remains open and Iranian sanctions relief continues. I doubt we’ll see all three at the same time !

The forecast is also misleading because inventories will still be lower than pre-war levels. I suspect governments will rebuild their stocks quite aggressively and countries that never had a SPR will soon be building and filling them.

Then there’s always OPEC 😊

I can't see it myself. I don't think Andy Burnham wants to be the next lettuce !

https://www.cityam.com/miliband-would-be-disaster-as-chancellor-says-cost-of-living-chief/

I really don't know what all the fuss is about. I'm happy with $80/bbl (but not $100), and I might start to twitch sub $69/bbl, which is what the deal pro-forma financials are based on.

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/miliband-derailed-plan-to-use-north-sea-oil-to-fund-defence/ar-AA26tVPO?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=6a3cbbcb3f2e4a45851db06f9a303ce7&ei=12

Well with the risk premium coming out of oil, it’s certainly not helping that’s for sure. As for a short attack, the last short which was above 0.5% of the shares in issue was closed February 2024. You’d have to be a complete lunatic to short ENQ now.

We need to remember that it’s not a done deal until the deal is done. Next catalyst – the prospectus.

Sit tight.

Https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/political-turmoil-offers-uk-chance-correct-north-sea-course-2026-06-24/

IMPORTING EMISSIONS, EXPORTING JOBS

The past few years have underscored that point. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, followed by the Iran ​war, provided stark reminders of the risks of overreliance on overseas energy supplies.

Every barrel produced in Britain reduces, in principle, the need for imports from distant and often geopolitically sensitive regions, particularly in the Middle East. This is especially true for natural gas, much ​of which is delivered directly to the domestic market via pipelines.

There is also an environmental dimension. Imported fuels tend to carry a higher carbon footprint than locally produced ones, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) standing out.

According to the International Energy Agency, imported LNG can generate 60% to 70% more emissions than domestic pipeline gas, reflecting the energy-intensive processes of liquefaction, transport and regasification.

The economic case is equally persuasive. The domestic oil and gas sector supports thousands of British jobs and billions of pounds in investment. Phasing out the North Sea while continuing to consume hydrocarbons does ​not eliminate demand; it simply redirects capital and employment overseas.

My guess ? Streeting Chancellor, mad Milliband Deputy PM + housing / justice / or some other job that nobody cares about. That keeps the pr!cck close to the centre of government without letting him wreak havoc on the economy and/or destroying our North Sea energy security.

I’d personally like to see him go to Broadmoor, but I think they're quite fussy who they take !

BTFATH1

The way I read the announcement was that 31st December was the agreed completion date, not an outside estimate. I’m assuming that date was specifically chosen for accounting / PSC / operational reasons.

An interesting strategy Spindok and I wish you well. I think Burnham will be worried about spooking the bond markets so I can’t see mad Milliband as chancellor. Hopefully Burnham will shoot for jobs and growth and move him sideways, but I doubt he’ll be out the door, sadly ! My money is on Streeting for Chancellor (probably he’s cut a deal already), which would calm the bond markets and he’d likely review EPL sooner rather than later. He is on the record as wanting more NS drilling, not mainly because it would cut bills, but because it would raise tax revenue. Bleeding obvious to everyone, except mad Milliband !

AA2020 – If the effective date was before completion, I would have thought it would have got a mention in the announcement. I’m guessing because this is a reverse takeover and package 2 subject to pre-emption it could be messy having an economic effective date other than at completion. But we shall see.

$80/bbl is sustainable, without the risk of global recession and demand destruction. At $80/bbl we will be making very good money, Malaysia will be highly cash generative, debt reduction will be rapid, and the market will be able to value us without applying a recession/demand destruction discount. Chill out people.

More like ad infinitum !

thanks modestus. interesting that fitch used talos/w&t as peers. back of a *** packet of their financial metrics i get enq at roughly 75–80p/share post-completion.

I think there’s zero chance of buybacks before Malaysia completes. After that I would have thought they’d want net debt/EBITDA substantially lower than the proforma 1.1x. Fine with me.

Not a great day today but still up 127% since the January low, just to put it into perspective. Looking forward to the low 30’s when we get the prospectus.

I might be August but it won’t be before the preemption expires or are exercised.

It’s not been announced. It will happen sometime after the preemption rights expire 10th July.