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VoR

You have to remember that not all our production is hedged. Only 31.6% is hedged (assuming 44,000 bbl/day). So at Brent $95 (your example) the cost of the hedge is $7.49/bbl sold, which $87.51 realised. Then as you say, the physical premium has no hedge downside whatsoever.

Too much credit for American intelligence in that article, me thinks. I don’t think the yanks ever had a master plan. Netanyahu just kicked Trumps arse into bombing Iran back to the stone age. What they didn’t bargain for was Iran trying to do the same to the Gulf states and blocking the Strait of Hormuz ! Nobody wants instability in the Gulf (ok the Israelis ain’t fussed) with higher oil prices, oil shortages, and every bad thing that flows from it. So I think the Americans really do want out, with a reasonable agreement so as to claim “victory”.

I read somewhere the Iran only has about 16-20 days of storage left, after which they will have to start shutting in wells.

Who can wait this stalemate out the longest ?

We know that, but the general public won't.

At more than double, this won't help the arguments to replace EPL.

very interesting video modestus, thank you ! turns out the “drill baby drill” drivel gloss from the orange **** ain’t gonna make much difference. the missing barrels estimate using the goldman disruption scenario puts it at 870mmbbl lost and the iea executive director fatih birol said (17th april) it would take “approximately two years overall to reach pre-war levels again.

so, as i'm bored this sunday morning - if brent averages $100 for the rest of 2026 and the physical premium averages $20, i make the 2026 fy fcf of $526m (assumes 44,000 bbl/day and $70 fcf/be and considers the $69 and $71.3 hedges for 2026).

exciting times !

Stevo

Repayment of a bond and refinancing of a bond are two completely different things. To remind you, the bet was that ENQ2 would be refinanced at 9% or less. I am still confident that that will be the case, should they choose to refinance the bond. If they use surplus cash from the USD bond to call ENQ2 then that is a redemption, not a GBP bond refinance.

Given ENQ ambitions to acquire, I suggest nothing wrong with holding excess USD bond funds in the bank at a negative 6% carry.

Stevo12

Er, no. The bet was in relation to the retail GBP bonds, as you well know. We shall revisit this conversation if, or when, the retail bonds are refinanced.

I would estimate the fees associated with this $675m bond to be ~ $25m.

Rom – I’m not a pensioner, well not quite LOL. But I take your point.

The terms of the retail bonds to be called are quite clear – 30 to 60 days notice / at par after 27/4/26 / all or none.

I hope they don’t, and I think they won’t. Market seems to agree as no change to the ENQ2 quote, no trades either.

Very good !

Coupon 9.875%, economic cost (priced at 99.038%) 10.1%. From the original USD debt stack I make that a saving of about £7M/year on a like for like, and before fees.

Disappointed to read that they “MAY” repay the GBP bonds. I hold.

The Iranians ain’t pitching up to the negotiation tomorrow. Trump extends ceasefire "until such time as their proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded, one way or the other".

Trump is facked, the anbs tool ! Oil higher longer. Unfortunately, longer term, we are all facked.

I'm not sure they'd take out the GBP retail, the USD bonds would have to come in at under 9% to make any sense. Even though the cash cost would be small, it wouldn't look good refinancing at bond trading at 7.23% (mid) and replacing it with a 10% USD bond. We shall have to wait and see, but the market doesn't think the GBP bonds will get called.

Https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3548380?

Still no word on the coupon.

The retail 9% ticked up again today. Now trading at 7.44% YTM (at the mid). It would be nice if they could get the USD notes away at 10%, that'll be no increase on the bond interest payments and we get another $70m in the back pocket. What a great time to do it !

All I could find was this (todays date):

https://www.ifre.com/bonds/2414451/enquest-mandates-usd575m-5nc2-sun

Looks like they're in the market for $575M !

Stumpy - its $478 (bond called at 102.9062%) + accured $27M = $505

Strange that they didn't release details of the new offering. No way the banks would allow them to use the RBL to finance that. Private credit maybe ?

$478M I don't think so.

I look forward to hearing what the replacement coupon will be.

Kraken - Where are you seeing the price of todays dated Brent ?

No. I ain’t selling sub 40. So I don’t care what the SP is tomorrow.

Dumbly

The obvious acquisition would be the remaining 29.5% stake in Karken, if Harbour wanted to offload it. Maybe the Chinese stake in Golden Eagle ? Dunno.