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colebrooke
That Moody's projection is a little out of date. The Net Debt/EDBITDA is already 2.5x and ENQ are targeting 2x by end of this year. I'm sure we'll get a new upgrade from Moody's in a couple of months.
Some research...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251777-enquest-14-percent-yield-back-strong-cash-flow-deleveraging-process?dr=1
A P/E of 6-8 would be more reasonable and achievable I would suggest.
The TERP was about 35p as I recall. Won't be paying any attention until it's through that marker.
hi Hitman
I don't understand why you cite accruals and trade creditors rather than looking at the overall liquidity ? As you can see the ratio is less than the ideal number of 1 (currently 0.69) but that in and of itself doesn't indicate a problem.
That's the way I read it too Beerbull.
Specifically I think they talk about efficiency in terms of uptime. He also said that the specialist FPSO team would remain in place until production efficiency improves from the low 60s to the mid-80s.
So, they are on the case !
Hitman
".. but we know 2019 realized prices will be 10% higher this year"
How do we know that ?
Assuming 2019 EBITDA of $716m (same as 2018) and given their commitment / expectation to get down to 2x Net Debt/EBITDA this year, would mean net debt standing at $1432m at the end of this year. That's a reduction of $342m which is fantastic.
They must have used a Brent assumption in that forecast but I can't find it. I can only find the assumed Brent price in the base case / going concern scenario.
Anyone know ?
Pelle - $93m loss on oil hedges. The actual realised oil price (inc hedge losses) achieved in the 2nd half was £62.9/bbl to make the year average $61.2.
What amazes me is that there is nothing new in the results today. Nothing that nobody didn't already know, or at least couldn't have reasonably worked out and yet today there is eurphoria. I'm sure depression isn't too far away. Best thing (some) could do is remove the SP from their screens. Just keep an eye on Brent, kraken offloads, company RNS and come back this time next year...a lot richer.
TW
Current borrowings (ie payable in 2019) are $311m.
Conference call now.
Much higher than we are now !
Have to say I CANNOT for the life of me understand this hysteria. The difference between 50,000 Kraken and actual/guided production, net to ENQ, is not the end of the world. And i'm sure we'll get to the prized 50,000 Bopd eventually. It seems many posters/holders here cannot see the big picture but focus on fine detail.
I was holding ENQ when they were 13p in Jan '16 and was still holding when they touched 54p a year later. Been here before, I have complete confidence in AB, no confidence in stock market valuations, and I'm more than happy to hold.
Absolutely Modestus ! Trust your own research and be greedy when others are fearful.
Squif
"...but someone has to relieve AB of his duties as CEO. It simply does not work to be the major shareholder and CEO - it clouds judgement."
I disagree. I'd much rather have a CEO with skin in the game than a CEO that has nothing to lose personally.
Anyone know who Seapulse are ? Quick search reveals they have no licence interest in the north sea. They don't even have a website yet: https://seapulse.com/
Reminds me of the ferry company contracted by the government that didn't have any ferries.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:381604/mmsi:24515/vessel:HEATHER%20KNUTSEN
But if you participate in any fund raising there is no dilution.
I just find it ironic that those sweating over the share price on a daily basis baulk at the idea of adding another fantastic deal, or deals.
Perhaps it's just a question of time frame, where mine is several years I don't always appreciate that for others it's far less.
Regards
KO
"In exchange for equality stakes ! Don’t like the sound of that !"
Why not ? The Magnus deal was fantastic. I'd happily stump up for another one of those every year !