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The Bressay gas tie-back seems to have very gone quiet lately. Not sure how the cost saving/payback maths pans out, but Harbour would need to be onboard for their whack of the CAPEX. Then there’s the small obstacle of, ahem, Milliband !

The GAEA fields are some ways into the future I think. It’s just an exploration option as we speak, but it could be HUGE. Again, I think, not 100% sure. Brunei seems a lot closer in that the year stated 2029 for first gas.

Ops update – Just wondering if we might get a hint of a maiden interim dividend ? 0.04p ? Now that would be nice !

Kraken - thats what i’ve got.

Digger - they don’t normally give us much more than net debt in the Ops update, so we’ll have to work backwards from that.

I think the Ops update will give us net debt broadly unchanged to 30th April. In Q1 they’ve had the Magnus payment, the decom fine, and the HY notes refinance fee, and that’s about $100M. Depends on lifting and CAPEX spend, so could be a tad either way.

Nah. The latest wheeze from Iran, and I'm assuming it's in their "proposal", is the “Hormuz Safe” insurance scheme for ships transiting the Strait. To be paid to Iran in Bitcoin lol. You couldn’t make this s hit up ! Personally I think they (US/Israel) will hit them much harder than before, and soon. I stil say $175 Brent before this is “over”.

Yeah, there could be some horse trading with Harbour, but I wouldn’t attach much value to Bressay & Bentley as a part-payment. At least not, until Farage is in No.10.

Their Kraken 29.5% interest would be the obvious acquisition. But at what price ???

Panic ye not, O restless and impatient holders. For lo, but seven days remain ere the coiled spring doth burst forth with mighty force.

Bressay and Bentley are already licenced fields. Not that it makes much difference because the prospects of developing them are close to zero with the current fiscal regime of this government.

Absolute nutjobs ! The lot of them !!!

".....We are going to declare Britains energy independence. That does not mean, and it will not mean, that we turn off the taps in the North Sea. Oil and Gas will be part of the mix for decades...." Camera then pans to Reeves then Milliband, both seen nodding in agreement.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I don't recall him ever making a direct and positive acknowledgement of O&G in the same sentence as energy security, and in parliament. Let us hope that these dimwits announce an early OGPM before the Autumn budget !

A fascinating read...

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026

Hi Kamrat

I think we may have been talking cross purposes. It seems you’re talking about the crude products shortage, whereas I was talking about how that crude products shortage translates into higher crude oil prices, particularly regional/benchmark related.

Hi Kamrat

I generally agree with your theory, but I would separate crude oil from refined products, because we are looking at this from the perspective of an upstream producer (ENQ). “Wrong oil in the wrong place” is a refined product shortage ie diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, rather than a general crude shortage. So not all crude grades or benchmarks will react equally. I can see it will increase certain crude prices if refiners have to bid up the right grades and the market prices scarcity of that grade in that location (we’ve already seen this in Asia). But as far as I kn ow, Europe does not yet have a general Brent benchmark crude shortage.

Tigar

Yes it’s a bit of a mare !

But you might want to take a look at NCYF as a replacement. It’s a specialist high yield bond fund listed in London, run by a very experienced bond specialist, with a solid 19 year track record. It’s yielding 8.9% and from that you’ll gather that the bond holdings aren’t exactly investment grade ! But IMO it’s a good replacement for the ENQ2 risk profile. That’s where my funds will be going on 29th.

Thank you. And I think it is.

Hi Romaron – “you really are a dog-with-a-bone and I admire your persistence, but you are wasting your time unless EnQuest…”.

Not really.

All we know is this: From 1 April 2026, EnQuest has hedged a total of 5.1 MMbbls for the next 12 months with an average floor price of $71.3/bbl and a further 3.5 MMbbls in the subsequent 12-month period with an average floor price of $64.4/bbl, in each case predominantly utilising swaps.

If you want to have a stab at calculating the realised price (maybe you don’t) you must make a few assumptions on the hedge. My assumption is simple – I assume they roll off and are settled monthly, as they fall due, for the next 12 months, in equal monthly volumes. Any other assumption, in the absence of inside information, would be folly. IMO

Papegoja

“If we focus on 2026 then lets assume Brent at USD 100/b and physical price at USD 140/b. My understanding is that E will get 71,3 USD/b + USD 40/b (140-100) in total USD 111,3 USD/b. The other party will get 28,7 USD/b (the difference between USD 71,3 and Brent 100/b). I assume that E is selling at USD 140/b (physical price). Any other views”

Not quite. We must remember that (roughly and from 1st April) only 1/3 of our production is hedged at $71.3, not all of it. So the formula is 1/3 × [$140 - ($100 - $71.3)] +( 2/3 × $140) =$130.43/bbl.

Steve

Q1 $40-50m FCF at $76 realised ? Have you revised your FCF B/E ? Or are you talking about H1 ?

It's not a good day for us. BUT, the market is down 1%, oil is down 4%, and we've just gone ExDiv by 4%. Brighter days are coming...

Rom - there are Dated Brent futures.