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I’m not buying this BS from Trump. His “postponement” 5 days from now (Saturday) puts him in Mayo Largo, away from White House business and away from the press, the markets are closed and the Marines are in place. Kharg, wallop ! Turn off the oil valves and wait for the Iranians to come to the negotiating table. Right now it’s only Iranian oil going through the Strait anyway, so no great loss of oil, in the grand scheme of things.

I also couldn’t find any Iranian comment or denial of Tump’s “…very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the middle east.”

I think the fecking lunatic opened his big fat mouth on Iranian power stations without thinking, now realises he can’t go through with it tonight (his deadline), so has to row back. I still say he will take Kharg Island, and the first lot of marines get in the region tomorrow. This will rumble on for a while longer IMO.

p.s. Brent looks really exceedingly cheap at $98 ! (but not as cheap as ENQ).

Postponement to last 5 days. Oil tanks

With a headline marginal tax rate of 78% for NS upstream producers, and in the current climate, they wouldn't dare attack North Sea Oil & Gas. Again ! Of that much I am extremely confident.

That’s a conservative target IMO. The stars have finally aligned at ENQ !

Actually talk of taking Kharg now:

"Donald Trump is considering invading or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Three separate marine units have been deployed to the Middle East, with the Pentagon considering sending more.

Kharg Island, located 15 miles off Iran’s coast in the Gulf, is the country’s main oil export terminal and critical to its fragile economy.

Sending ground troops to the island or blockading it would give Mr Trump leverage in talks to reopen the strait or end the war on his terms.

A source told Axios: “We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.”

The Trump administration has been warned that the mission risks leaving US troops on the island exposed to Iranian missile and drone attacks.

The US largely destroyed military targets on Kharg Island last week."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/20/iran-war-latest-news-trump-netanyahu-ground-invasion/

Might just do the trick. Or, if China pipe up, it could go horribly wrong !

Contd...

— Pressure on Rachel Reeves: There is mounting pressure on Rachel Reeves to bring forward the replacement of the EPL. Changes were expected to be announced in the recent Spring Statement; however, the coincidental strikes by Israel and the US on Iran prompted a re-think. Reports suggested that Reeves has committed to ending the tax next year, replaced by the more generous OGPM, which will provide a boost to EnQuest (we forecast cUS$130m of EPL payments in FY27).

— Impact on cash flow forecasts and sum-of-parts valuation: Inputting our updated near-term oil price assumptions increases EBITDA by 14% in FY26E and 13% in FY27E. Core NAV rises to 32.3p and total NAV to 41.3p, increasing our target price by 24% to 41p (implying 100% upside from current levels). Buy Ticker ENQ:MAIN

Somebody was asking about the Cavendish note:

EnQuest More yet to come North Sea, Malaysia and Vietnam oil & gas producer EnQuest has been a standout performer in the sector, rising c21% since the conflict began on 28 February. The company is one which has moderate levels of exposure to near-term oil and gas prices, with oil sales accounting for over 85% of group revenue (gas is primarily sold on fixed, long-term contracts). At the latest disclosure to the market, EnQuest had 4mmbbls of 2026 production hedged with swaps at US$68/bbl, and a further 0.1mmbbls subject to a call option at US$81/bbl. Next year, EnQuest has swaps at US$64/bbl covering 3.3mmbbls. These are equivalent to 33% of our FY26 production forecast (oil only), and 27% of FY27, leaving the balance of oil production sensitive to strip pricing. Meanwhile, adjustments to the UK fiscal policy are linked to the events in the Middle East, with the government reported to be on the cusp of ending the EPL windfall tax early, before being sidelined on the day by the launch of the conflict. Still, with the need for energy security ever clear, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reportedly committed to ending the tax early (next year), which will give a boost to all North Sea producers. Updating our new strip pricing adds 14.0% to FY26E EBITDA, and 13% to FY27E. Core NAV is boosted by 27% to 32.3p, with total risked NAV at 41.3p (+25%). Our updated target price offers 2x upside.

— Oil weighted – hedged vs unhedged: We forecast that oil will account for c80% of FY26E sales volumes. The company has a relatively prudent hedging policy, with swaps covering 33% of this years’ production at US$68/bbl and 27% of next year at US$64/bbl.

— Debt provides leverage and enhanced headroom: EnQuest has net debt of cUS$435m, versus its market cap of cUS$500m. This provides leverage to movements in the underlying enterprise value of the business (ie to increased sales prices). Importantly, EnQuest’s net debt is equivalent to 0.79x FY26E EBITDAX, indicating that the company is not overtly geared on cash flow multiples. EnQuest currently has an undrawn US$800m RBL facility. Higher strip oil prices may increase the borrowing base at the next redetermination.

— Timing of Magnus acquisition: EnQuest could barely have timed its acquisition of BP’s contingent consideration in the Magnus oil field any better. The transaction saw EnQuest acquire an additional 37.5% of net pre-tax cashflow for a cash consideration of just US$60m. This compares to a balance sheet valuation of US$433m, based on pre-conflict oil prices.

Kraken is actually heavy/sweet, which suits marine fuel, because it has low sulfur, so it needs less cleaning and is cheaper for refiners to turn into IMO compliant fuel.

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Kraken is the heaviest crude produced in the North Sea, with an API gravity of 14. But low sulfur levels in the crude mean it can be mixed with gasoil to produce bunker fuel that has a lower-than-normal carbon footprint -- since the crude needs no refining -- and complies with the International Maritime Organization's 2020 sulfur regulations. The field produced 39,000 b/d in the first half of 2020 and the crude is again selling at a premium to Brent, EnQuest says.

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/coal/110920-enquest-positioning-for-kraken-sequel-green-investment-ceo?

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From the H1 2020 results: "Cargo pricing has improved over the same period and remains robust, with the Group continuing to optimise sales into the shipping market with Kraken oil being a key component of IMO 2020 compliant low-sulphur fuel oil."

https://www.enquest.com/media/press-releases/article/2020-half-year-results?

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VLSFO trading at $772/tonne (which is $121/bbl) 2 days ago

https://www.oilmonster.com/bunker-fuel-prices/rotterdam-vlsfo-price/239/133

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I agree VOR, we are coining it in !

HeavyMallard

For sure with other targets. I just think Kharg is most likely. Shut off those oil valves and the regime will be squealing like a stuck pig. It’s their [USA] only real chance of a diplomatic solution. I don’t think the mob get there until about 25th, and even if they do and launch before that it’ll send the $ oil price into orbit.

Interesting interview with Jeff Currie, thanks Modestus1.

Al Jaezera confirming the Iranian gas field hit, of South Pars, and quoting Israeli sources as saying “it was co-ordinated with the US”. Oil up $5, but this, where they deliberately attack Iranian Oil/Gas infrastructure is a whole new ball game.

In light of this attack, I would argue that Israel and the US will try to strangle Iran economically. Let’s face it, USA/Isreal might be wining militarily, but they ain’t no nearer to regime change than day 1. There’s a bunch of US marines heading into the Gulf area from Japan, about 2500 of them, known as the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, onboard the USS Tripoli. Their role is fast, sea based combat force, able to conduct amphibious assaults and raids.

My guess is that the Americans will seize Kharg island. For those not aware, Kharg Island is a tiny spec of land about 20 miles off the north western Iranian coast line. Crucially it processes about 90% of Irans crude oil exports. The yanks need not damage any infrastructure, just turn off the oil valves and bosh, Iran has no income ! That might just bring them to the negotiating table, or if it doesn’t, the economic strife inflicted on Irans population will surely lead to an uprising. I wouldn’t like to predict the oil $ in this case.

The USS Tripoli was seen passing through the Singapore strait 17th March, which gets them into the gulf region around 24/25th March.

We shall see….

stevo12

hmm.

i was merely making a comparison of the january 2017 market cap, compared to now, as highlighted by kraken. 2p reserves then were 215mmboe (source fy dec 2016 results) and 31st december 2024 168.6mmboe (source fy dec 2024 results) and we only have to wait 6 days to get the dec 2026 2p numbers. it was a back of a *** packet comparison of market cap then, to market cap now, after debt reduction.

interesting your take on wanting $70 oil….to persuade the government to drop or amend epl… which exists precisely because profits get fat when prices are high…a bit like saying “please cut my salary now so hmrc stops taxing me”. i’d rather have $100/bbl now than $70 in the future just so that i can hope that this government discovers restraint.

p.s. no bubble burst here :)

Kraken – “In January 2017 we hit 45p with Brent trading in the 50’s”

We did have less shares in issue then, 1,159,398,871 to be precise, giving a market cap of £521m, with net debt of $1796m. Now we have a market cap of £377m and net debt of $435m.

Just applying the net debt reduction (FX 1.33 / shares in issue 1865m now) from market cap “then” to what the equivalence should be “now” gives a market cap of £1.544B or 82p/share.

Happy to wait :)

Dumbly

They don’t give the precise volume or strike price or the expiry month in the H1 results and Ops update, just the broad gist of it.

A Swap – no matter what happens, this is the price you’ll get for that QTY of oil. Don’t have to physically deliver the oil, just take the loss (if oil price above swap price) or profit (oil price below swap price) and close the contract.

A Collar – is when you set a floor and a ceiling on the oil price you get paid. You buy a Put Option and simultaneously buy a Call Option. Doesn’t normally cost much, and can actually be done for nil debit, depending on options volatility and where exactly you set the oil strike prices.

From the Feb Ops Update 23rd February 2026

EnQuest has continued to add to its hedging portfolio. In 2026, the Group has c.4.0 MMbbls of oil production hedged with swaps at c.$68/bbl, and a further 0.1 MMbbls with zero cost collars with a floor price of $53/bbl and ceiling price of $81/bbl.

For 2027, the Group has hedged c.3.3 MMbbls of oil with swaps at $64/bbl. For 2028, the Group has hedged c.0.6 MMbbls of oil with swaps at $64/bbl.

At the end of the day all forms of hedging is a punt, and you will almost always be damned in hindsight.

Yep !

The Strait isn’t technically closed. They’re running the checkpoint. When you’ve had 17 ships hit in 18 days, it’s not an open sea lane — it’s a lane where Tehran decides who gets waved through and who gets made an example of. And the pattern is obvious - Iranian crude goes through. Plenty of Indian and Chinese-linked traffic gets through. Everyone else is would be rolling the dice, and most operators and insurers just won't take that risk.

Iran doesn’t need to “win” in the Hollywood sense. They just need to not lose. Every day they survive, the risk premium hardens. And they know damn well there’s a line Trump won’t cross - Kharg Island. Touch Iran’s main export artery and you’re not “sending a message” — the orange twat would be detonating the global oil market.

So Iran’s incentive is obvious - keep the Strait functionally dangerous, keep flows selective, keep insurers nervous, keep the world bidding up barrels.

$100 isn’t a spike anymore — it’s the new baseline. IMO.

I agree VOR.

But also, I don’t think Hormuz will get back to normal flow rates unless and until the Iranians agree a ceasefire, and given their demands of America I don’t see that happening anytime soon. Just the mere “threat” of having your tanker blown up by them will be enough to keep most operators away. Military escorts might be viable in the short term, but not sustainable in the long term. So, with $100 oil Iran are happy, Russia are over the moon, China not happy (but at least their tankers a flowing through Hormuz).

This is another Vietnam for the USA and $100 oil will be with us for quite some time IMO.

IAE just announced release of it's strategic oil reserves, with it's 32 country members in agreement to release 400 million barrels. Brent hardly moved. But IMO this does indicate that those member countries are agreeable - in that these Gulf supply issues won't be over anytime soon !

Https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Page 112 (117 PDF viewer) for anyone interested in the forecast EPL revenues:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7b62e1f4fbda4252208/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026-web-accessible.pdf

They could hedge the whole year of 2027 at $72.8/barrel. That's not bad ! The fall in sterling (138.7>133.5) since this all kicked off is also adding about 4% to the sterling realised POO. Most ENQ costs are USD I know, but PBT, EPS, and Divs measured in GBP. Every little helps.