Advanced Medical Solutions Group Share Price (AMS)

Would like to thank them for their time and consideration

At least they were polite, you dont see that all the time. Personally - I dont care about tyre kickers. The offer stated by Sky was too low.

I was just responding to another offer I had received on the market today - AIRE. In that case a deal fell through with AEWU only a few weeks ago, and now we have another more credible offer. My point is, its easy to assume the bidder found something they didn't like, but I think its more likely they just wouldn't pay up. In that case, credit to the board. Hopefully the cashflow here will allow a buy back or special dividend, and we can start to benefit from the value that has been created, without it being taken from us.

At 7:23 pm TA Associates issued an announcement from whjich I quote:

- "TA today confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for AMS."

Whilst I was wrong to give my comment here at 12:39 am today an optimistic slant, in its penultimate paragraph I did point out the downside risk that if TA Associates walk away and no other potential bidder emerges, AMS shares are likely to drop to where they were before rumours of possible bid interest caused them to rise and that they could fall to 215 or even 210p. I also said that if TA do walk away and the share price falls:

- I'm confident that within a few months it will recover especially if, as expected, the next trading report is positive and debt continues to be reduced; and

- there's likely to be a trading update in two months' time, on or about 15 July 2026.

Trading yesterday (Thursday) had been dull and low-key until about 3.55 pm when AMS came alive with lots of buying and a rapidly escalating share price. The spread rose from about 249.5 - 250.0 to about 254.0 - 255.0. AMS closed up 8 at 256.

According to TA's website they're big investors in companies operating in the medical sector.

Judging by (i) late yesterday afternoon's trading activity, (ii) the uncrossing trade by which the closing price was set at 4:35 pm, and (iii) the trading activity after the market officially closed at 4:30 pm, something seems to be afoot.

My guess is that there was some sort of leak yesterday afternoon which led to the sudden rise in trading activity. This suggests that traders, investors and the market believe that it's very unlikely that TA Associates will walk away, that either they (or another predator) will make a formal takeover bid quite shortly, and that a formal offer might even be announced as soon as this morning.

Unusually for a put-up-or-shut-up deadline, in this case it falls on a weekend; TA Associates' put-up-or-shut-up deadline is 5 pm tomorrow, Saturday 16 May so maybe there'll be an announcement today, Friday, either before 8 am when the market opens or after 4;35 pm when the closing price will have been determined.

The announcement due by 5 pm tomorrow is likely to say one of the following three things:

- (1) TA Associates don't intend to make a formal takeover offer, i.e. they're walking away; or

- (2) they do intend to make a formal takeover offer at a price and on other terms which will be summarised in the announcement; or

- (3) TA Associates and AMS have agreed to extend the deadline and the Takeover Panel has approved the extension (a) because TA Associates and AMS are in a continuing dialogue to attempt to agree terms to be put to AMS shareholders, or (b) because more time is needed (i) for TA to complete their due diligence and/or (ii) for TA to finalise their financial arrangements for a proposed takeover and/or (iii) for both TA and AMS to prepare and agree the legal documentation for a possible takeover offer.

The share price will go up nicely if a formal offer comes in at 280p or more.

The downside is that if TA Associates walk away and no other potential bidder emerges, the shares are likely to drop to where they were before rumours of possible bid interest caused them to rise in the days leading up to Mark Kleinman's 18th April report on his Sky News blog of TA's interest. In this scenario, AMS could drop to 215 or even 210p. If TA do walk away and the share price falls, I'm confident that within a few months it will recover especially if, as expected, the next trading report is positive and debt continues to be reduced.

AMS issued a trading update in both mid July 2024 and mid July 2025 so there's likely to be one in two months' time, on or about 15 July 2026.

4 days to go ........

Private equity firms, as far as i am aware, do not waste their time making feeble bids to take over companies. what is it about AMS that this has now occurred twice ?