focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"STOP PRESS"
It appears that one of Prosciutto's missives est disparu :0(
He must have abandonment issues.. Ma and Pa Dalek away a lot invading planets
Is that it?! Is that the best you can do? Prosciutto, you really are having to reach a long way to scrape that barrel now eh?
What price a convenient takeover from ARA now then Prosciutto? 3p? 4p? More?
Not quite so desperate then eh? Your sting has lost its barb....
Highlights of the week
"I also had some of those Warrants that were issued. Anyone else take them up I wonder ? p..s. they are now worthless by the way !" 1. Tanzania
Foreshadowing of things to come.
" Whilst I'm confident, you'd be a fool not to think there could yet be another kick in the nuts" 1. matherdj.
= = = = = = = =
What does Mr. Ambrose do all day long? He lacks influence over anything, holds no sway over anything, and has no control over anything. His only task is to focus on preparing the next financing package. The recent modest loan is inadequate, particularly if the Tanzania Revenue Authority decides to pursue the outstanding debts it is owed.
Highlights of the week
" ..... but as the Gas is believed to push any Oil further up-dip, Oil could still be trapped there instead." 1. StockCheque
Repeatedly, it must be emphasized that Ntorya is not an oil play. You need only ask Tullow Oil that drilled just North of Nt-1.
" Zambia next up then! They won't want to miss out!" 1. StockCheque
Talks have continued for years and will likely continue for many more.
" 9 new targets on top of NT1+2 and CH-1 that is." StockCheque
Nt-2 hasn't been tested. Nt-1 hasn't even been reworked. Aminex has 0 cubic feet of 1P gas reserves. Approaching two decades of lost opportunity.
3 targets cost US $140 million
9 extra targets would cost US $ 420 million
25% = US $105 million
Good luck with that. As it stands, Aminex has already fallen further into a dangerous debt trap. Possibly, an orchestrated debt trap.
"They said at the AGM last year that they have to be careful or someone would build a shed and claim the land." RogerJolly
Tanzania is a tough place to do business. Every single dollar of cost recovery will be contested, and extracting every single US dollar of revenue will be a constant struggle. Aminex has previously encountered this situation with Kiliwani. The LNG delay will only complicate matters. Attempting to extract an exorbitant profit from a country mired in poverty is both immoral and unethical.
Highlight of the decade
" Ntorya Development: io's report indicates, based on reasonable assumptions, that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year, producing into a raw-gas pipeline to the Madimba gas plant, approximately 33 km away." 1. CPR Feb 5th, 2018
So far, over six years plus behind schedule. Nt-1, Nt-2 still not ready, no CH-1 drilling, no pipeline and a band-aid loan which will not suffice especially if the Tanzania Revenue Authority elects to act. The company's finances are precarious to say the least.
With an upcoming election, playing hardball with this British foreign insurgent makes for good politics.
I see Prosciutto is really grasping at straws now. Is that really the best you can come up with? If so, I suggest it is time for you to quit, That really is a pathetic attempt.... that's it? Well nothing there to scare the horses. And to compare He1 with AEX is just ludicrous and the fact that you use that as a comparator demonstrates how fundamentally flawed you perverse logic actually is. If you think anyone will be fooled by that you are seriously misguided and wasting your time.
Find your self another pastime for your Wednesday coffee break Prosciutto, your time here is wasted.
They have been peddling this nonsense since 0.45p
Bad case of gout I believe.
Highlights of the week
" ORCA - Cancelling almost all capital expenditure because their license is due to expire in 3 months and very, very little progress has been made on that. " 1. Ufufuo
This is right up there with the nonsense of 140 MMscf/d of production by Oct 2023. The license does NOT expire in 3 months. What does expire in 3 months is the obligation to supply up to 45.1 MMscf/d of the protected gas 'at cost'.
" Honestly, if ARA said they'd found little green men living at Ruvuma you'd believe it." 1. RoJo
That very same jollyboy also had a 'Buy' rating on Helium-1 at > 9p! Hopefully, he wasn't assigned a 'pass' in your remedial class Professor RoJo!
" Lump of cash coming in from the back-in - highly unlikely if you are to believe the BoD..... " " 1. CrustyPete
Correct. Do NOT anticipate receiving any upfront payment from TPDC for a back-in arrangement.
= = = = = = = =
The implications of Aminex' negative working capital are not to be taken lightly. It occurs because Aminex' current liabilities exceed its current assets, which can affect Aminex' ability to meet its short-term obligations and may impact its long-term financial health. It signals financial distress and could lead to strained relationships and limited growth opportunities or even much worse.
" Cash at bank and in hand’ last June stood at $5.036m inc. $1.023m held on behalf of partners in joint operations – so, $4.013m that could actually be used by Aminex." 1. Ufufuo ... what about TRA?
" On a positive note tax liabilities have been reduced to $8.19m" 1. wonderer. If one regards this as a positive remark, it invites contemplation on the extent of contrast with a negative one.
" As announced in 2022, the Company has sufficient funds until the end of 2024, when revenues from the Ntorya gas discovery had originally been expected" 1. Charles Santos .
Certainly, this should not have come as a surprise. Production by mid 2025 is only a 'hope'.
The inference drawn here is that Aminex possesses financial robustness. Some hold the belief that the free-carry amounting to $35 million will suffice for the entire Ruvuma project. Claims have been made that the issue of the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania doesn't apply to Aminex. Did Aminex receive Presidential immunity? If so, D.J. Trump would love to know how to acquire this Presidential immunity. The next money access-point is from you and your wallet. If this is the case, "the die has been cast" for a capital raise since the recent small loan will not be suffice.
Helium-1's value had plummeted by 70%, and any capital increase for Aminex is also likely to have a serious negative impact, especially after speculators artificially inflate the price.
O, what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive!" 1. Sir Walter Scott.
Hired gun or not, don't be deceived by the obfuscation specialist.
What say I about what or whom Mrs Gaslady?
Tullow would not have abandoned TZ had they found oil just North of Nt-1.
" TPDC back-in rights, is upto 15% of the Ntorya development .... " blackgold00
"Don't expect any back-in payment from TPDC"
He really has not got a clue how tpdc back-in rights work. What a dip stick. Lol, he reminds me of that very strange character Bunbooster, yes well he disappeared in a puff of smoke hopefully this one will as well.
Utter rubbish
What say you MrMoi?
Highlights of the week
" There's oil alright." 1. jamtart1
Tullow would not have abandoned TZ had they found oil just North of Nt-1.
" TPDC back-in rights, is upto 15% of the Ntorya development .... " blackgold00
Don't expect any back-in payment from TPDC. Orca Energy Group has been waiting 15 years for a back-in payment from TPDC. Do expect TPDC to be more than 'on board' and 'in your face'. Utilizing delaying procedural tactics often results in a postponement that can put Aminex in a financially precarious spot. Aminex has no control against these multitude of nefarious forces lined up against it.
The bigger concern should be whether or not TPDC will sanction the 'going concern' of Aminex. TPDC may consider purchasing the remaining assets of this foreign entity at a reduced price due to financial distress.
= = = = = = = =
Question of the week
It doesn't matter what the 3D seismic depicts. If you can't make a profit, you can't make a profit!
Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?
= = = = = = = =
There are so many issues still to be resolved.
Has a rig been contracted? Is there a rig available?
Is there a resolution to the foreign exchange reserve deficiency? Why would ARA proceed without a resolution to this issue?
It doesn't appear that cash flow will arrive in time for Aminex! What are they going to do?
It doesn't appear that they'll be able to retain the operator status for Kiliwani. What are they going to do?
How do you anticipate the company generating a profit when payments are made in Tanzanian Shillings?
Do you truly think that TPDC will proceed with a back-in payment?
= = = = = = = =
The company's track record is essentially 10 to 15 years of missed opportunity costs. Aminex is non sine periculo .... far, far from it.
" Wisdom consists in being able to distinguish among dangers and make a choice of the least harmful." 1. Machiavelli
Receiving a takeover offer can be considered fortunate and may be seen as a blessing if it occurs. Regrettably, the imposition of a substantial capital gains tax renders this option improbable. Perhaps, TPDC may be able to find a solution to this 'tax' issue.
This is the sardonic stuff we must expect from RoJo !
Anyway, lets hope it hangs on to 1.05p today.
...venturing out of your comfort zone Tom ?
copy n'pasting suits you better I think...
From 4p to 2p to 1.43p, make your mind up.
Well Tom - a 30% premium would be 1.43p
Looks like good advice to me.
You left a bit out you old ham you.
Accept a takeover offer and enjoy a 30% premium to market.
Highlights of the week
"This whole situation is a result of a calculated plan to get control of the asset without giving shareholders any benefit. The government,tpdc and ara are in cahoots with each other to get aminex to run out of money so they can take over with little or no cost to themselves." 1. mj152
With a negative working capital, the company doesn't have enough money to pay the bills. Aminex is essentially a shell / surrogate / proxy of ARA. A single person could manage the entire company since there is little to do, perhaps only sharpening pencils. There is not much TO do because there is not much they CAN do.
= = = = = = = =
Consider the situation regarding the deficiency in foreign exchange reserves.
" There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
Aminex has a 25% interest in Ruvuma so Ruvima would need to produce 487.2 MMscf/d to equate to Orca's 121.8 MMscf/d. Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4 and the foreign exchange reserve deficiency was a contributing factor.
If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so. Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?
Brace for another delay and hope that Aminex doesn't follow Scirocco's trajectory A capital raise appears increasingly probable. The capital raise would trigger a significant drop in share price after the pump.
A decision must be made.
" Not to decide is to decide" 1. Laurence J. Peter.
Highlights of the week
" Sadly, it's always next year." 1. winalot
" ... or the year after that." 1. RoJo
= = = = = = = =
Re: Q4 of Orca Energy Group
“2023 was a challenging year for Orca, driven by considerable macroeconomic fluctuations and company specific uncertainties. Despite this, significant time and resources have been dedicated to planning for identified field development opportunities to support future production volumes.
The growing electricity demand in Tanzania has led to an increase in gas supply requirements. In response to this, we formally requested the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation to initiate the process of extending our development license in accordance with the terms of the Production Sharing Agreement. Extending the license will allow Orca to continue optimizing existing facilities, boost well and reservoir performance, and ensure a reliable and sustainable supply of natural gas within Tanzania's energy framework. During March 2024, a preliminary planning meeting was held with the Government Negotiating Committee to discuss the timing around negotiations. As we enter this critical period, I would like to emphasize the urgent need for all parties involved to engage in agreeing on a path forward to license extension.
2024 remains a critical year for Orca. We are prepared to commence several near-term operational projects, but there are a number of outstanding commercial matters that need to be addressed, in addition to the relevant parties involved agreeing a path towards a license extension. The Board and Senior Management recognize the importance of reliable and sustainable domestic gas production in Tanzania, so achieving further commercial development in the near term is imperative to progressing our operational work programmes. We will keep all our stakeholders updated as the year continues, updating the market as appropriate.” 1. Jay Lyons, Chief Executive Officer
" There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
Whilst producing at 121.8 MMscf/d, Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4. Look up the large currency exchange loss. If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so.
Scirocco is finished and Wentworth has given up. Both Orca Energy Group and Aminex are being squeezed.
" The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." 1. Niels Bohr
Highlights of the week
" Aminex is a well-run business" optrade
Aminex has no say or sway over anything. There is nothing to run.
" sitting on huge reserves " optrade
Contingent reserves aren't worth a wooden nickel.
"and having enough funds until expected cash flow receipts from sales of Ruvuma gas." optrade
Aminex currently has a negative working capital. In Q3, Orca Energy Group at 121 MMscf/d, earned $0.01/sh because of payment in TZ Shilling. That's what you can look forward to.
= = = = = = =.
The delays keep coming and the belief that the risk has subsided here lacks foundation. Some might contend that ARA will rescue the situation by providing the essential funding to avert a financial collapse of Aminex. While this may be true, there does also exist the possibility that a subsidiary of TPDC may abscond with the remnants of Aminex. ARA would not take offense to that, provided that the subsidiary is listed as a public company.
For Aminex to be of any lasting significance, it must continue to be a vital 'operator'. The complete development of Kiliwani is estimated to cost approximately US $140 million. Consequently, the odds of Aminex retaining the 'operator' status of Kiliwani is quite slim.
it’s common for companies to face significant challenges when they lose a crucial status or position. The loss of its 'operator' status will be an extremely difficult event for Aminex to overcome.
" Our sun is one of 100 billion stars in our galaxy. Our galaxy is one of billions of galaxies populating the universe. It would be the height of presumption to think that we are the only living things in that enormous immensity" 1. Carl Sagan
In a parallel universe, Aminex might retain its 'operator' status. That storyline appears extremely unlikely here.
Yes Tom, and you're clearly in the correct sub-set as you are getting very good at it.
Keep it up !
Dante's 'Nine Circles of Hell' should be expanded to 'Ten Circles of Hell'. The tenth circle would hold the generation long suffering Aminex shareholder.
Some people do like putting people into categories. I'm no expert on Stylometry though, I'm in the cut and paste subset.
So, with Aminex's 25% that's 2 TCF attributed to Aminex. Oh and then with the development licence inplace then all that resource, can be converted to ( 1P and 2P reserves) what do you make of that then Pros ?