Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The pontificating deramper has now been peddling his negativity and misinformation for over a year now having created his account in November 2022. His 63 posts all relate to AEX. If all he does is post weekly to deramp one share it’s a very sad existence. It would appear he has just created this account to deramp AEX and probably has multiple other accounts .
If anyone can be bothered his ramblings about capital raising due to delays can easily be demolished just by reading the RNS. But he doesn’t deserve the oxygen and the filter button is probably the best course of action.
RoJo's Messiah speaks, the sp rises. He, Prosciutto overlooks everyone one here has now well averaged down. Like wise owl Crusty, everyone including RoJo is looking at a likely profit. Has anyone any idea why it is Prosciutto is so anti AEX ?
At least it creates tricky times for day traders....
Highlight of the week
" Until progress consistently matches prediction I take every AEX proclamation of intent (particularly those with timelines) with a massive pinch of salt. I still think there’s potential here but it’s a long and frustrating haul." 1. apbristow
as verified by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
= = = = = = = = = = =
With these perpetual delays, the negative working capital will inevitably reveal its ugly head. What does that entail?
A capital raise: Keep in mind that both the Auditor and the Directors have made comments regarding "going concern" and that additional funding may not be available.
They will need about 10 million British Pounds to take care of this negative working capital plus the massive tax obligation.
That would imply an offering of 1.5 billion shares at 0.65 p ... a dilution of ~ 26%
(4 210 + 1 500) * 0.0065 = ~ BP 37 million market cap.
ARA may elect to pick up the distribution at 0.65 p, but it's not guaranteed.
With a shortage of USD in Tanzania, it will be a really tough challenge to find enough buyers to pick up the secondary offering. The buyers have the option of waiting and thus putting the squeeze on Aminex. The squeeze could be deliberately manufactured. This could end up creating a new Scirocco-type denouement for Aminex.
Even under the best-case scenario that you could possibly map out, it will be tough going. Wentworth is currently producing at that level that Aminex is hoping to eventually achieve. Even now, Wentworth is struggling. Orca Energy will be producing > 130 MMscf/d when the 'Protected Gas' clause expires shortly. Aminex can only dream about those levels of production. Even Orca Energy Group, with over US $100 million in cash, is struggling because of bureaucratic delays. Aminex has no built-in immunity to the same issues that both the more mature Wentworth and Orca Energy Group are exposed to.
It appears that M&P might be successful with respect to the WEN acquisition.
Aminex should follow the same path as WEN. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlight of the week
" Some of the nonsense posted here by some is no more credible than the "To the Moon" crypto fools we must endure." 1. thisnthat
= = = = = = =
What is your preference?
1) A capital raise?
For the amount of money that will be required, this will be a body slam. It will hurt and hurt bad. The "capital raise" won't take place at this current lofty elevation.
2) A farm down of the remaining 25%?
A farm down is most likely out of contention. A farm down for half of the remaining 25% interest might bring in US $8.75 million which is nowhere near enough.
They are between a rock and a hard place. The company is powerless because all of the events are outside of the company's control. It's a fact that they are in financial distress. This fact was published in their financial statements. Creating true shareholder value is an impossible task for the management team.
You should be able to decipher what is going on by now. At this point, you should know quite a bit.
" The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more" 1. Charlie Munger who passed away yesterday.
The short and sweet of it is this ...
There is far too much optimism about share price appreciation. You need to work on decommissioning this non-fulfilling proxy of a company. It has sucked enough money out of your pocket.
Unlike you and many others here, prosciutto knows a sensible post when he sees one.
Well that's highly unexpected RJ - your Messiah quoting from you straight off !!!! No wonder you're hangng on his every word. Plenty of 'No's' but d'you notice , no, NO GAS.................
Highlight of the week
" Despite all the talk, this Company has gone nowhere for years, and I repeat has no drill rig, no drill pad, no pipeline, no GSA nor anything else, and the value of the 'free carry' is dwindling." 1. RoJo
= = = = = = = = = =
Any positive RNS on real progress won't push this anywhere.
Both Wentworth and Orca Energy Group took a hit after converting local payment into US Dollars. In Q3, Orca Energy Group barely broke even after taking a foreign exchange loss of US $3.19 million. This is a company that is currently producing 85 - 90 MMscf/d (Protected gas not included yet). This represents a production target that Aminex could only wish for.
At best, Aminex hopes to produce the equivalent to what Wentworth is currently producing. You'll notice a mutiny is currently unfolding at Wentworth. Call it foreshadowing of things to come for Aminex.
This ought to give you some insight as to what the future holds for Aminex and what to expect from Aminex even after the net 3.6 MMscf/d (25% of 17 MMscf/d) from NT-2 comes online. You can expect a further delay until this currency conversion issue is resolved. It makes absolutely no sense moving forward if this challenge is not accretive to earnings.
There are at least 15 issues that are sequentially linked to get this completed on schedule. See my contribution Feb 1, 2023
Assuming 90% probability of each event: (0.9) ^15 = ~ 20%. There exists a 20% probability that it will move forward on schedule.
This implies an ~ 80% probability that there will be yet another delay whilst the risk factor for a subsequent "capital raise" continues to rise. The "capital raise" won't take place at this current lofty elevation.
= = = =
The short and sweet of it is this ...
There is too much optimism about share price appreciation.
You need to work on decommissioning this non-fulfilling proxy of a company. It has sucked enough money out of your pocket.
Recent highlights ...
" Although, I wish operational success for long-term AEX holders, I think the current valuation of the company does not include the risk for an additional capital raise. Working capital is negative with 3.6 MUSD and liabilities does not include tax claims of about 7 MUSD ( without merit according to AEX management)." 1. HighYield
= = = = = = = =
You can expect a production of 'first-gas' delayed well beyond Dec 2023. This highly anticipated, miniscule, decoupled, first-gas net production of 3.6 MMscf/d from Ntorya 2 ( 25% of 17 MMscf/d) won't have much of an impact. This should lead to a liquidity crisis and a subsequent capital raise following the new CPR. The acrid smell of yet further dilution should be just around the corner.
= = = = = = = = =
re: Wentworth
" Further, the decision included confirmation from the FCC that TPDC has the right to pre-emption of the M&P proposed transaction to acquire Wentworth." 1. Wentworth Operations Update Nov 13, 2023
Aminex should also expect these kinds of a bureaucratic hurdles / complexities to cause further delays.
= = = = = =
re: Possible Sale of the Company
1) Would an en bloc sale of the company not attract a capital gains tax? This would likely be 30% of the implied gain on the sale of the company which does not have any cost base.
Answer: Yes
2) Would you have to take into account corporate G&A given the high level of involvement to manage political and commercial risks?
Answer: Yes
3) is there anyone paying NPV(15) in Tanzania even with this new President? NPV(25) of the Proved reserves is likely closer to the correct number. Conventional wisdom is to pay for Proved plus half of Probable. In this case, i) there are no Proved reserves ii) the determinant of Probable in incremental gas markets, which is extremely unpredictable with TPDC. NOBODY is going to pay for contingent resources in Tanzania.
Answer: No
= = = = = = = = = =
" Oh BG - look at the SP !
How long have you been posting optimistic nonsense here? 10 years ? More ?" 1. RoJo
The market price for Aminex is NOT wildly wrong on a consistent basis. You need to encourage the takeover of Aminex. Up to this point, you may have failed to do so but, a failure is not a mistake. The real mistake is to stop trying.
Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
...with UWE as the undisputed chief ostrich.
Welcome to the ostrich house guys !
Many here have had their head buried in the sand for years.
Kread
Am absolutely with you.
;)
You know that we know that he knows that we know that he knows knotting.
Knowledgeable ?
Also Rojo states that having a diversified portfolio is essential, yet seems to only spend time on the AEX BB?
Pls try harder to to bring the price down guys, want to by another wedge, before the news arrives.
Someone as knowledgeable as you RoJo could've traded their way out of their predicament rather than being stuck in a 4p limbo all these years.
Not looking as if you've got long to wait jollyboy.
Well the months of deramping by you guys is still not helping to get me some shares for less than 1p.
You are running out of time guys. Step on it, you need to up your game
I have to agree with you this is a bust. This government is just stringing people along there is no real desire to push this project forward.
October 2023 was to be the 'first-gas' date as predicted by some. October has come and gone and no gas production.
" Production by October is nothing more than a pipedream. The subterfuge here never ends." May 2023 Prosciutto.
Production by the end of 2023 is nothing more than a pipedream.
Scirocco has left the playing field in tatters. Wentworth and Orca Energy Group are both experiencing difficulties as a result of the trials and tribulations they are being put through. Aminex won't be immune to this tough business environment. The word 'proactive' simply does not exist here.
The 'reality list' ... not the 'silly list' .. is listed below.
No Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation released.
3D seismic over SongoSongo and part of Kiliwani North Development License was terminated by Orca Energy Group.
No new Competent Person Report.
No Nt-1 well workover
Going onto 6 years waiting for the drilling of Nt-3 / CH-1
No GSA signed.
No Development License approved by cabinet of Ministers.
No Nt-2 well testing program
No Ruvuma License extension
No Pipeline
Cost of conversion into $US will be excessive.
Negative working capital.
No say or sway over anything.
No control over anything.
Non operator at Ruvuma
" Wisdom comes alone through suffering. " 1 Aeschylus "
Because of the extensive suffering of Aminex shareholders, there must be plenty of wise investors here. Perhaps, wise enough to encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Oh dear! Where is everyone hiding?
At least we can look forward to prosciutto's clarification tomorrow
Thanks for clarifying
There was protection in 2008, but it was improved and raised to £85K (100K euros) in 2017.
I was RoJo yes but thinking about it didn't that £85k come into effect because of that crash? I'm not sure that protection was there beforehand was it?
Who lost bank savings in 2008 ?
Are you talking about savers with more than £85K in an account and thus not protected by the FSCS ?