Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Translated from https://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1713966417-Hotuba_ya_Bajeti_ya_Wizara_ya_Nishati_kwa_Mwaka_wa_Fedha_2024_2025.pdf
112. Honorable Speaker, this project involves development of natural gas discovered in Ntorya area in Ruvuma block. Until March, 2024, the works carried out include completing the interpretation of the 3D system seismic information collected in an area of 334.9 square kilometers and continuing with the preparation of repairs and
well tests for the Ntorya 1 and Ntorya 2 wells .
In addition, the Contractor is continuing with the purchase of the Chikumbi-1 well boring plant.
Likewise, the Cabinet has approved the issuance of a license for the development of this Block where the procedures for the issuance of the license to TPDC on behalf of the investor (ARA Petroleum Company) are
being completed.
113. Honorable Speaker, preparations for the construction of a pipeline to deliver gas to Ntorya
The Madimba gas processing plant is underway where the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) has been completed and the Engineering and Construction Lead Consultant is completing the
engineering feasibility study to enable the pipeline construction tender to be announced
Https://knightsmpr.com/knights-mpr-wins-investor-relations-work-with-aminex-plc/
https://knightsmpr.com/knights-mpr-experts-chosen-to-work-with-ara-petroleum/
KN-1 is not worth much and had little in the way of reserves. There was hope that the acquisition of new 3D over the area would potentially show how to get most from the licence but the dispute between ORCA and AGS most likely mean this wont happen as this would have been a freebie to AEX / SCIR. But both would need funds for new drills or remedial work.
On the topics of the pipeline, the tender has been updated to 'awarded' from Evaluation so things are progressing on this front.
https://www.taneps.go.tz/epps/eawarding/showDetailsOpenedTender.do?resourceId=23578334
This will show you the area where the 3D took place. The track lines are very clear
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-10.47456&lng=40.00852&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2023-06-26T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-06-26T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
We are all eagerly awaiting them, as if they're not good we'll all be going home...
ARA must be confident on what has already been discovered as they would not have increased their interest and risk by buying up the 25% from SCIR. They would have left that risk with Wentworth.
PURA website has stated the interpretation is complete. That's not to say that the data is in state ready to be read and consumed by the market. No point releasing a spreadsheet full of Numbers that have little meaning to the intended audience.
Or is Orca so lowly valued because its reserves are running out? ORCA have BCF whereas Aminex and ARA are looking at reserves in multi TCF. We will have to wait for the CPR before we can start making real comparisons.
Total Proved (“1P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2022, were 141 billion standard cubic feet (“Bcf“) compared to 160 Bcf at year end 2021, representing a 12% decrease.
Total Proved plus Probable (“2P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2022, were 167 Bcf compared to 188 Bcf at year end 2021, representing an 11% decrease.
The reduction in Gross Company 1P reserves from year end 2021 to year end 2022 was primarily attributed to 2022 gas production and the number of years remaining on the Songo Songo Licence. The reduction in reserves was attributed to a 21% reduction in the time remaining until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence (3.8 year remaining at year end 2022 versus 4.8 years at year end 2021), which was partially offset by increased Company conventional natural gas sales and forecasts (which will be classified as Additional Gas (as defined in the Songo Songo PSA) (“gas sales“) until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence in October 2026).
The Company had record gas sales of 29 Bcf in 2022, representing an increase of approximately 42% compared to year end 2021. With the installation and commissioning of inlet compression at the Songas Gas plant in March 2022, the Company was able to contribute to a significant increase in gas to power generation caused in part due to drought conditions in Tanzania throughout 2022 and the commissioning of the Kinyerezi 1 Power Plant extension in Q4 2022.
Net Present Value of 1P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $147.2 million at year end 2022, compared to $177.8 million at year end 2021, representing a 17% decrease.
Net Present Value of 2P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $170.7 million at year end 2022, compared to $209.9 million at year end 2021, representing a 19% decrease.
The reductions in net present values of 1P future net revenues from year end 2021 to year end 2022 was primarily attributed to lower reserves at year end 2022 as a result of the reduced number of years outstanding on the current Songo Songo Licence and an increased need for future development capital to supply increased gas sales.
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SCIR/completion-of-ruvuma-divestment-2eih8f8wqst3cic.html
Based on the numbers in this article ...
https://www.pura.go.tz/news/apt-tpdc-commended-for-implementation-of-upstream-petroleum-projects
Cost of Aminex 25%
$1,750,000 - Well cost
$3,750,000 - 3D cost
Total 5.5m spent of the 35m
Aminex is not in control of its own destiny. It depends entirely on the agenda of others. - Just like countless other projects, most are handed over to those with larger pockets to see it through to monetization. Aminex could never have funded the 3D and drilling Campaign on its own without significant investment which it now has through its main shareholder and backer ARA.
To look it another way, look at the number of people who go on dragons den with ideas/products that have little or no revenue or money but have a great product. Dragons take the lion share of the company and progress the company until it makes money. Aminex gave up 50% of its licence give itself a path to significant future income.
Literally all resource companies have zero income to start with because they start out as explorers. Aminex is about to again join the ranks of those who are producers. How much do they have to sell? Well we will have to wait for the 3D results and CPR. But its likely to be significantly higher than the last report.
Aminex are free carried to production and have enough cash for administrative expenses until the end of 2024.
Tanzania Elections are 2025, if those politicians want to keep there jobs, they will need to provide their citizens with reliable energy. Something they have been advocating to them for sometime now.
SCIR got a bad deal due to the BOD
Wentworth tried to buy into SCIR interest which shows they had appetite to continue exploration in Tanz but ARA decided to take up its option to buy SCIR interest. With little or nowhere to go after this the Wentworth BOD are now trying to get themselves a payday.
ORCA have had a production contract with the TPDC for nearly 25 years and are looking for better terms.
Here is the cached version
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:UFD2jwRLu1wJ:https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/udsm-makes-oil-discovery-in-rufiji-ruvuma-4289708&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
Prosciutto - buy a share and go to the AGM and put your concerns / questions to the directors yourself. I expect all shareholders would love to hear the debate between you.
Have you considered that ARA changed tact and wanted to test the TPDC and their commitment by not drilling and instead say to the TPDC, we already have a well that can produce. Give us a production licence, GSA and build a pipeline then we will complete the drilling commitments for the licence. ARA will have already likely shown the TPDC initial 3D results to give the assurances needed to enable the pipeline to be built.
I do remember buying this around 7p around 2010.. i lost a few quid then when I sold my position.
Made a decent profit buying back for the NT-2 drill though. We all know how long that took to get that done as well as sign off for the KN-1 GSA.
However the noises being made in TZ now appear to be very positive about finally getting Ntorya gas to market. The government agencies (TPDC, PURA etc) are making the right noises that should result in good uplift in share price for us.
The games of cat and mouse between ARA and the TZ gov should be all but done now, lets see how the next 6 months goes.