The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Lots of reasons. Gov took forever to sign off farmout with aminex. Since then ara have wasted little time getting boots on the ground. Also gov needed to approve a full field development plan. They also need a gas sells agreement in place.
If they were to stay all in with the Tanzania project they will have little say as the operator is ARA which means all they need to do is meet the cash calls along the way. Thankfully SCIR Shareholders would not have to rely on the current BOD to manage / develop this asset. Essentially SCIR are the in the same position as Aminex but without funding, they will just report to market when ARA has information to release.
The Tanzanian Government will have to share the blame on why the gas pipe is not being used to full capacity. It took them far too long to approve the farmout with Aminex which is why nothing has happened for a couple of years. Now they have woken up and now given an ultimatum to get things sorted which can is a good thing. Hopefully the bureaucracy seen previously is behind us and any required approvals will be signed off with minimum delay. The elephant in the room here with SCIR is how they will fund their share. I believe they will drill , not only will it de-risk the asset further but increase the value of it. Just at what cost to existing shareholders remains to be seen.
most likely the copywrite on the map data but not the image.
If you use google maps pro you can see the image date when you zoom in like this example https://ibb.co/30KBhz1
most recent images https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2L2A&lat=-10.455085305775325&lng=40.02370834350586&zoom=15&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=0.9&gamma=1.1&time=2021-09-01%7C2022-03-13&atmFilter=&showDates=false
No further road clearings from what i can see but ideally need less cloud cover.
Not sure how far behind the article is in relation to the work completed. Recent Satellite images already show temporary roads had been created by around middle of Feb. Question for us, is the clearing still happening and more temporary roads being created? Next Satellite images should tell us more.
Also when you consider that £26m of the current mcap is the monetary value of the farm out before any monies are spent makes the current company value crazy low. Very little potential is factored in currently. Many other companies have had far higher valuations and have found nothing. Although production is still a long way off here and in a country that is known for dragging its feet on matters. So there are counter arguments as to why the company value is not higher.
I would also argue that if the drill and 3d seismic work is significantly cheaper than first thought, there will be money left over from the farm out agreement. APT could write off the loan against what was in the farmout deal.
Net value of carry to AEX = $35m
Cost of CH-1 Drill = $1.75m (AEX 25%) (Full cost $7m)
cost of 3D = $3.75m (AEX 25%) (Full cost $15m)
Remaining carry = $29.5m
If they get everything ordered and in country they could still hit September spud date. At the moment they are trying to find the best spot for CH-1. I believe they will drill CH-1 and continue 3D work to find optimal locations for follow on wells simultaneously.
I know this is well trodden ground but could still happen
AEX + WEN to merge
AEX+WEN acquire SCIR interest in Tanzania assets with WEN Cash reserves
Use existing WEN production revenue to service debt to pay for enlarged working interest in Ruvuma
AEX+Wen get 50% of the project
Personally cant see it happening but would be nice for AEX to have 50% of the project again given how large this find could be.
Like I said, if a delay is announced then our profits will be wiped out in an instant. Look what happened when they announced soon after the farm out that the drill would be delayed until 2022. I will would use such an opportunity to buy more others will like just move on.
All things im excited to see progress on POC.. but others wont share the same view and will want concrete dates set before they part with money. There will likely be a lot of hot money that pours in here once the drill is confirmed and spud date gets closer.
There is that too. but if they were to announce a delay we would likely be no better off as most of our gains would be wiped out instantly. So people are reluctant to buy now in case of that but are willing to pay more in the know that things are progressing.
That maybe the case but there will be that legacy drag here. we need confidence that the authorities will continue to sign things off in a timely manner. Also if people had more confidence then the sp would be rising here like those 'unfunded' shares. Clearly there is no appetite here due to other factors other than its a waiting game for 3D results. We need confirmation that the long lead items have been ordered. Once we know that the drill will defiantly happen that will be the trigger for people to start taking positions.