Member Info for bullfrog

CH-1 will be Approx 2500/2600 meters deep. Not sure on the expected casing sizes but we can use details from NT-2 for guidance.

This is more details on the NT-2 well drilled close by back in 2017

Drilling recommenced on 7 January in the 12” section which will be cased and cemented at 2,095 metres.
- Following this an 8 ½” section is planned through the target Cretaceous formation to an estimated total depth of 2,860 metres.
- A 7” cemented liner is then expected to be set and a detailed analysis of the well data conducted prior to potential testing.

If they delay the spud until after April it provides the opportunity to use next years ISA allowance. As long as they start drilling by summer, no biggie for me. Questions will need to be answered if things drag on much later than that though .

If the RNS starts with "are delighted to announce" we know its going to be bad :D

save you the hassle.. here are the slides for tonight's presentation

https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/scirocco/2023/01/26145105/SCIR-Proactive-Jan-23-FINAL.pdf

Snippet from the same report, 3D seismic over KN-1 area in Q1 2023

e Company is currently carrying out a 3D seismic acquisition program, budgeted at $22.7 million in order to de-risk future development drilling and to evaluate the potential of prospective resources for exploration drilling. The Company awarded and signed a contract with African Geophysical Services LLP on July 7, 2022, to acquire approximately 181 square kilometers of 3D marine, transition and land based seismic over the Songo Songo license area. The Company is targeting completion of the seismic acquisition program in Q1 2023.

up 20% because a company BOD are inviting investors to have a drink with them... bonkers

It would give more confidence if they were to share the 3d results of the area around the drill pad so they can show us the targets. If done properly there should be a 3d model they could show us to visualize what we are going after.

The sp will naturally rise in anticipation again for the drill in March, there will be watches to try and catch the bottom of this dip.

While I agree its an opportunity to buy in / add at a lower price right now, the fact is the sp is still lower than the 1.7p we hit on the completion of the farm out a couple of years ago, which we were told shortly after completion 3d would be required before drilling would start. As a result the SP dropped back to 0.4. And we have had a share issue since too at 0.75p

The SP recovered back to above 1.2p as expectation grew in anticipation of the drill happening this year, again we were let down again and the SP is drifting back to 0.8.

The theme here is the failure to hit targets and continual delays. Until the company shows a track record of hitting targets the share will be nothing more than a traders share. I dont think everything is Aminex fault as the past government regime did everything it could to hold up the farm out being signed off.

Us long term holders who chose to believe in the long term objectives will continue to add on weakness but with every passing failure to get something done on time, more longer term investors will sell up in frustration.

We still need to have confirmation that a GSA is in place and at what price.
Who will fund and build the pipeline
A report to disclose what the 3d found
New reserve report
Rig contract
Will drill pad need to be moved, if so construction needs to start soon to be ready for March 2023
3d results over the KN-1 area - long term project this as it will need to be farmed out or use money from production revenues to develop. I think if there is something worth drilling, ARA will farm into this.

Finally. ARA could just buy 1% more of Aminex and take us out at a much lower price than what we could expect to get when the revenues start to flow.

And the sp was 7p in March 2017 or 87% drop in sp compared to todays price
or 21p back in April 2007, a 96% drop to todays sp

We can all pick a time frame to fit a narrative.

Btw i was referring to money to be used out the farm out pot of cash. Already under budget so likely could have spent a bit of securing a few % of the SCIR licence.

Ruvuma is a company maker and once they have cash flow they can then start looking to diversify the portfolio provided Aminex is not taken out before it has a chance to do this.

I would have used some of the money to buy some of SCIR 25% to mitigate against the potential loss of a few % if the TPDC backs in to the licence but then i think ARA would would have strongly apposed this as they want as much of Ruvuma for themselves.

KN-1 is dead and is quite frankly not worth wasting money on.

3D will hopefully show some decent prospects and maybe even ARA will be interested in farming in, they likely had a hand in securing the 3d for free anyway so they already have potential interest here.

5 months is quite a slip in expected dates though don't you think?

If the rig was being shipped to Tanzania, it should have already been on route by the time the Half yearly report was published. It was all a bit misleading I think.

They wont fix Kn-1

They will wait for the 3D over the area first and see if there any new targets worth drilling.

What is your thinking as to why is the rig not on site right now ready to spud and is now expected March 2023?

Why is the rig not on site right now ready to spud and is now expected March 2023?

ARA want something done before they are happy to start drilling is my view.

I simply said some of those who are on the side-lines waiting to buy in will want confirmation that the drill actually will go ahead in March 2023. We cant sell any gas until there is a GSA in place either so we need confirmation that this has been successfully negotiated and signed along with who will build\fund the pipeline.

I suspect after the KN-1 debacle where we had a well ready to sell gas but no GSA (delay last time was around payment protection clauses if i remember correctly)

They are doing things the correct way this time round. Negotiate the GSA first along with the payment protections in place. I still question the payment protections on offer as we had to wait years for the last payment to be sent and even then was for half of what was actually due.

People on the side lines will only pull the trigger and buy in once confirmation is given that the drill is actually happening. They may have to pay more than todays price, but in the meantime they will be making their money work for them elsewhere. They have 5 months or so to take a position so no rush really.

If the TPDC are looking for investors to fund the building of the pipeline, I would expect ARA to be throwing their hat in the ring on this, for a better gas price in return of course...

From the latest RNS..

it was reported that APT had reinterpreted existing 2D seismic which resulted in an upward revision of risked mean GIIP to 3.024 TCF (8.236 TCF unrisked mean GIIP)

Hopefully with the 3d we will get a more accurate estimate. Not long now until we see the results.