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3d seismic results, 454 km2 3D area being captured by Africa Geophysical Services Limited ("AGS") ... confirmation that long lead time items have been ordered and are on route. Ruvuma Licence valid for two years from 15 August 2021 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/extension-of-ruvuma-licence-ka1n7cuav93u4j5.html
All the time the sp is low just see it as an opportunity to buy more all the time the fundamentals remain the same. If all goes to expected time lines I would expect to see more people taking speculative positions around May/June. We should have a completed 3d survey then as well as more details on the longer lead items being in place ready.
If that's the case, when reality sets in the MCAP for CHAR might come down closer to AEX if production is years away regardless of the size of find. We will have to wait and see. There are plenty of energy/gas/oil companies with much higher MCAP than AEX that are not even fully funded for all or some of their projects so that should be seen a tick in the box for reasons to invest in AEX. However unless other licences are farmed out AEX will need to fund to progress them. Personally I see a raise happening off the back of CH-1 where the mcap will be higher or could entice other parties to come on board or ARA see the potential in the acreage and farm into those which would again hopefully prevent a fund raise.
Yes Aminex do have good assets and have already found good quantities of gas but we have the legacy issues still dragging us down. There are green shoots of recovery where things are now being done and in a timely manner.
We can all look forward to the seismic results to see what we have in our hands. It could turn out to be a strategically important find for Tanzania ever more so if Oil is found which might help speed things up further.
For now just looking forward to what this brings us which I hope does not include further delays.
Question is, how quickly will the well be put into production? How soon can they get a GSA? How much can they sell the gas for? What is the profit margin on the gas? Does CHAR already have a income stream?
Depending on the answers will give reasons why the MCAP is higher than AEX or its just riding a wave of popularity for the moment.
A decent overview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c8WnciTEzw This example is used geothermal exploitation however the principle appears the same.
The majority of the time is spent laying out the nodes to capture the data as this is labour intensive. Data is captured in Real time which will then need to be downloaded off the nodes for interpretation.
Another good explanation video youtube.com/watch?v=z1ORnwnuXbM
They have given themselves an opportunity to buy cheap shares in the future. I would have rather they stuck their hands in their pockets and bought them on the open market instead they have a risk free opportunity to buy shares at 0.6p when the sp rises. Given the option execution price is rather low it shows a lack of ambition. My two cents.. and yes I own 6m shares myself paid out of my own pocket with an average of 0.65p.
ARA could continue to bank roll Aminex through loans until such time it gets into production and by then the SP will 'hopefully' (lets not get carried away) be significantly higher so would inherently benefit in the longer term. I dont believe they would want Aminex to raise capital unless its a last resort . Using free cash flow then start exploring other licences and acquiring. If ARA wanted to expedite matters they could do by farming into those licences which again would match the Aminex business model currently where they take a back seat.
To be honest I think Aminex is essentially in ARA Control now, the Aminex board are just ARA mouthpiece when they need to speak.
Just my view
not quite sure what big news they could be sitting on.
3d seismic due to start on 15th November.
Possible KN - 1 remediation? - This will cost money of which Aminex has little of
Farm out of other licence areas?
Other than that we are all here waiting for the main event which is CH1 of which there will be the results of 3d seismic before which will tell us if the prize has got bigger. It will be interesting to see if they bring the drill forward. They are currently doing the 3d seismic around the CH1 drill location so if the data for that can be processed quickly they could get drilling while 3d seismic continues on the wider acreage. Depends how organized they are and if all the equipment can be mobilized in a timely manner.
To be honest I don't mind waiting and adding on weakness in sp as the fundamentals have not changed. The only thing to change price targets would be a placing if/when that happens and at what price.
Usually the more you want to buy or sell the more or less the sell price
You would not be able to sell 500k at 0.715 unless the MM were bidding higher for shares. Hence the other trades in the 0.6's were sells.
You might be able to sell small amounts in the 0.7's