Member Info for bullfrog

looks a sell unfortunately as it was from the 7th and looking at other trades that were buys at the time the 4.45m was a lower price.

07-Apr-22 08:43:35 0.90 4,450,000
07-Apr-22 08:45:35 0.935 263,726

https://twitter.com/sadaatumar

Ara are not spending millions for the asset to just sit and do nothing. They clearly believe the asset can be monetized.

Also how would SCIR pay for any remediation work on KN-1 as they own part of this too?

They could have raised when the sp was at 0.4 but that may have been viewed as too damaging long term. They don't want to completely destroy investor confidence which would impact them as well.
There could be a plan to use the excess money from the farm out (drill and seismic so far is cheaper than expected) to buy SCIR share. But what do I know. I still would not want the BOD wasting their time on KN-1 as the risk reward is not great at the moment. Unless Aminex can Tap ARA know how into getting the issue resolved.

or ARA wanted more of Aminex at a cheap price

84m shares will be in sticky hands with Eclipse aka ARA as well

Puts the so further away from 1.4p.. but for how long remains to be seen.

Investors and traders will avoid scir until its funding plans are confirmed. I think it’s too late for them to sell their share now so will have to press ahead.

Lots of reasons. Gov took forever to sign off farmout with aminex. Since then ara have wasted little time getting boots on the ground. Also gov needed to approve a full field development plan. They also need a gas sells agreement in place.

If they were to stay all in with the Tanzania project they will have little say as the operator is ARA which means all they need to do is meet the cash calls along the way. Thankfully SCIR Shareholders would not have to rely on the current BOD to manage / develop this asset. Essentially SCIR are the in the same position as Aminex but without funding, they will just report to market when ARA has information to release.

The Tanzanian Government will have to share the blame on why the gas pipe is not being used to full capacity. It took them far too long to approve the farmout with Aminex which is why nothing has happened for a couple of years. Now they have woken up and now given an ultimatum to get things sorted which can is a good thing. Hopefully the bureaucracy seen previously is behind us and any required approvals will be signed off with minimum delay. The elephant in the room here with SCIR is how they will fund their share. I believe they will drill , not only will it de-risk the asset further but increase the value of it. Just at what cost to existing shareholders remains to be seen.

Not enough volume to day trade this at the moment. Spread alone will put anyone off trying to trade it

most likely the copywrite on the map data but not the image.

If you use google maps pro you can see the image date when you zoom in like this example https://ibb.co/30KBhz1

should be noted that those satellite images were taken 22nd October 2020

most recent images https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2L2A&lat=-10.455085305775325&lng=40.02370834350586&zoom=15&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=0.9&gamma=1.1&time=2021-09-01%7C2022-03-13&atmFilter=&showDates=false

No further road clearings from what i can see but ideally need less cloud cover.

Not sure how far behind the article is in relation to the work completed. Recent Satellite images already show temporary roads had been created by around middle of Feb. Question for us, is the clearing still happening and more temporary roads being created? Next Satellite images should tell us more.

Also when you consider that £26m of the current mcap is the monetary value of the farm out before any monies are spent makes the current company value crazy low. Very little potential is factored in currently. Many other companies have had far higher valuations and have found nothing. Although production is still a long way off here and in a country that is known for dragging its feet on matters. So there are counter arguments as to why the company value is not higher.

I would also argue that if the drill and 3d seismic work is significantly cheaper than first thought, there will be money left over from the farm out agreement. APT could write off the loan against what was in the farmout deal.

Net value of carry to AEX = $35m
Cost of CH-1 Drill = $1.75m (AEX 25%) (Full cost $7m)
cost of 3D = $3.75m (AEX 25%) (Full cost $15m)
Remaining carry = $29.5m

If they get everything ordered and in country they could still hit September spud date. At the moment they are trying to find the best spot for CH-1. I believe they will drill CH-1 and continue 3D work to find optimal locations for follow on wells simultaneously.