Member Info for bullfrog

Drill gives a good chance for a decent return this year. If anyone believes this wont happen should sell up and move on.

Where is the fun in that, we have been doing that for years.

Difficult to answer that unfortunately. Weather has been on their side until this week so good progress should have been made. We might get an interim report showing what has been found around the proposed CH-1 drill site. If they want to expediate matters, once the CH-1 location is finalized the long lead items should be en route and they can continue the seismic campaign while the CH-1 is drilled.

3.88m was a sell but a good day overall

Could be worse.. could be in ADV today

Should be able to buy more now they have lifted the ask.

Looking at recent satellite imagery there is some activity very near the CH1 site so good chance there are boots on the ground working.

We dont know how much it will cost to commercialise the CHAR find though. They may find they have to give up some of that interest to pay to get gas to market. So I think we could well hit between 2/3p during the drill of CH-1. Does depend also on what the 3D shows up prior. Remember this hit 1.6 on farm out completion news alone and the current sp only values it on the carried value of the 3D seismic and drills. Gas found so far has no value attributed to the company or the licences the company currently holds. Take another example, HE1 currently valued at around 50m... based on what, no successful drill thus far and no income. Shows how out of whack valuations can be.

That would be 2.4p here. Entirely possible once the drill bit is turning and more gas is found

3d seismic results, 454 km2 3D area being captured by Africa Geophysical Services Limited ("AGS") ... confirmation that long lead time items have been ordered and are on route. Ruvuma Licence valid for two years from 15 August 2021 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/extension-of-ruvuma-licence-ka1n7cuav93u4j5.html

only one buy visible so far today @0.8 for a sum of £99.50. Going to take a bit more than that to cover the 23k dump earlier.

All the time the sp is low just see it as an opportunity to buy more all the time the fundamentals remain the same. If all goes to expected time lines I would expect to see more people taking speculative positions around May/June. We should have a completed 3d survey then as well as more details on the longer lead items being in place ready.

If that's the case, when reality sets in the MCAP for CHAR might come down closer to AEX if production is years away regardless of the size of find. We will have to wait and see. There are plenty of energy/gas/oil companies with much higher MCAP than AEX that are not even fully funded for all or some of their projects so that should be seen a tick in the box for reasons to invest in AEX. However unless other licences are farmed out AEX will need to fund to progress them. Personally I see a raise happening off the back of CH-1 where the mcap will be higher or could entice other parties to come on board or ARA see the potential in the acreage and farm into those which would again hopefully prevent a fund raise.

Yes Aminex do have good assets and have already found good quantities of gas but we have the legacy issues still dragging us down. There are green shoots of recovery where things are now being done and in a timely manner.

We can all look forward to the seismic results to see what we have in our hands. It could turn out to be a strategically important find for Tanzania ever more so if Oil is found which might help speed things up further.

For now just looking forward to what this brings us which I hope does not include further delays.

Question is, how quickly will the well be put into production? How soon can they get a GSA? How much can they sell the gas for? What is the profit margin on the gas? Does CHAR already have a income stream?

Depending on the answers will give reasons why the MCAP is higher than AEX or its just riding a wave of popularity for the moment.

There was the promise of back to back drills back then and no farm-out or funding to actually do that. A lot has happened and things do actually appear to be moving at long last after a 5 year wait.

Having had time to think about the BOD share options. It might give an indication the BOD are not anticipating the sp to fall below 0.6 which could be seen as a positive sign.

https://youtu.be/z1ORnwnuXbM

A decent overview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c8WnciTEzw This example is used geothermal exploitation however the principle appears the same.

The majority of the time is spent laying out the nodes to capture the data as this is labour intensive. Data is captured in Real time which will then need to be downloaded off the nodes for interpretation.

Another good explanation video youtube.com/watch?v=z1ORnwnuXbM

They have given themselves an opportunity to buy cheap shares in the future. I would have rather they stuck their hands in their pockets and bought them on the open market instead they have a risk free opportunity to buy shares at 0.6p when the sp rises. Given the option execution price is rather low it shows a lack of ambition. My two cents.. and yes I own 6m shares myself paid out of my own pocket with an average of 0.65p.

They should be making good progress, there has been minimal rain in the area. light rain due towards end of December which should not impact operations.