Member Info for prosciutto

" rapidly expanding gas demand," Prospero26

The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project has significantly reduced the demand for gas.

" pipeline completion" Prospero26

Irrelevant ... you need to make money. A stable legal environment is essential, but it’s lacking here. The chances of resolving governmental and commercial disputes satisfactorily are slim.

" and first revenues arriving around the same period as the drill itself." Prospero26

Projected Earnings Per Share from Nt-2 for Aminex = ~ US $0.0001 .... uh oh! (see last week's calculations)

A new placement is quite likely.

This could explain why Santos owns " 0 " shares in this pos.

" People also forget the backdrop is completely different now." Prospero26

People also forget that the backdrop here is entirely the same and the ONLY predictable thing here is that the legal and regulatory framework is UNPREDICTABLE. 

" NT-2 drilled before monetisation existed. ... " Prospero26

There’s no guarantee here, as neither was initially an extended well test that could offer any real sense of assurance. This could be another Tembo2.

= = = = = =

Tanzania’s shaky regulations, unpredictable tax policies, and lack of trust between business and government make it tough for anyone trying to make an honest go of it.

Scirocco, Wentworth, Orca—done and over with—Aminex is up next.

" It makes a difference whose ox is gored" 1. Martin Luther

Ntorya Value Scenarios: What Gas Could Mean for Aminex.

Compared to Orca, a multi-decade veteran co-venturer at SongoSongo:

79.7 MMscf/d, US $8.8 million in earnings. The Aminex equivalent needed for Ruvuma would be 318.8 MMscf/d.

Aminex: 4.47 billion shares, Nt-2: 17 MMscf/d ... maybe.

Prorated: ((((0.25 * 17) / 79.7) * 8.8) / 4 470) = 0.0001

Projected Earnings Per Share for Aminex = ~ US $0.0001 .... uh oh!

Without commercially acceptable terms, they’ll struggle to remain a going concern. The lack of an updated CPR since 2018 is also definitely a cause for significant concern.

Along with expected predatory litigation and anticipated tax disputes, you should also be prepared for the residual uncertainty as to the outcome of any arbitration or any other ongoing proceedings.

A multi-decade veteran co-venturer at SongoSongo:

79.7 MMscf/d, US $8.8 million in earnings. The Aminex equivalent needed for Ruvuma would be 318.8 MMscf/d.

After almost 25 years, they’ve decided to stop trying to do business in Tanzania.

Available for US $10 total ... not a printing error ... US $10 total.

Aminex:

4.47 billion shares

Nt-2: 17 MMscf/d ... maybe.

Remember, when AEX spudded Nt-2, it was never properly tested.

Prorated: ((((0.25 * 17) / 79.7) * 8.8) / 4 470)

Projected Earnings Per Share for Aminex = ~ US $0.0001

Aminex faces serious cash flow pressures.

Looks like they’ll require another equity raise.

Note that Santos sold all of his shares.

" Here's the smell of blood still. All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand." 1. Shakespeare, Macbeth

We now have two decades of prolonged misery and still awaiting an updated 2018 CPR.

This is just pure nonsense and the setup here is becoming truly laughable.

" What impact on the AEX sp do you think there might be on the news that ARA was out at Ruvuma?" 1. BritishPeculeum

The smart move for ARA would be to stall for a couple of years. This would achieve two things: first, it would put serious pressure on the government of TZ to negotiate a fair contract and hope that arbitration plays out in their favor; second, it would likely cause Aminex’s share price to crash, allowing TPDC to scoop up the company at a basement price.

Working with a regulator as a partner would offer many benefits.

What does Mr Ambrose do all day?

How many shares does he own after selling 500 000? Ans: 0

" … Songo Songo/Orca is definitely relevant to Ruvuma, and I am sure that ARA will have factored-in the political/commercial risk/reward trade-off when they decided to underwrite the farm-in of Ruvuma.... " 1, BritishPeculeum 

Items which did NOT have a chance of being factored in include ...

1.There was an outstanding amount totaling US $104,164,507.41 to Orca as of January 9, 2025. They settled for US $52 million, with the Company keeping about $35.5 million and TPDC receiving the rest.

2. Their 'Protected Gas' contract expired. This was ignored and they still insisted on taking up to 45 MMscf/d at cost

3. The Gov't of TZ has failed to extend their License which is normally extended as standard practice.

4. A subsequent plethora of government and commercial disputes

5. The ramp up of issues with the legal and regulatory environment.

After 25 years as a driving force in the build out of Tanzania’s gas industry, Orca has concluded that remaining in this market no longer makes any economic business sense. Feeling betrayed, they decided it is best to walk away. Consistent payment is an issue and doing business in Tanzania has many cumulative risks. 

" What impact on the AEX sp do you think there might be on the news that ARA was out at Ruvuma?" 1. BritishPeculeum

The smart move for ARA would be to stall for a couple of years. This would achieve two things: first, it would put serious pressure on the government of TZ to negotiate a fair contract and hope that arbitration plays out in their favor; second, it would likely cause Aminex’s share price to crash, allowing TPDC to scoop up the company at a basement price.

Weekly Highlights

re: Orca ...beware the fake news from Prospera Island.

" carrying licence-renewal uncertainty... " 1. prospero26

Orca is being strangled by not being granted their license renewal.

" disputes ,... " 1. prospero26

A history of no payment, late payment, partial payment, wrong currency payment tends to lead to disputes. There was an outstanding amount totaling US $104,164,507.41 as of January 9, 2025. They settled for US $52 million, with the Company keeping about $35.5 million and TPDC receiving the rest.

" arbitration exposure, " 1. prospero26

There is a reason why capex is down 98%. When a contract is no longer a contract, one needs to be worried. Arbitration doesn't even work .

" legacy commercial issues ... "

PAET's legacy, in the last twenty-five years, includes being instrumental in developing the Tanzanian commercial gas industry and supplying the gas power industry from the ground up. PAET has nourished several dozen commercial clients with natural gas ... all hooked up to the 50 km ring main they constructed in Dar es Salaam.

" and future obligations... " 1. prospero26

Tanzania lacks a clear, practical framework that promotes investment. They have a regulatory instability, inconsistent tax treatment and weak respect for a 'contract' between business and government.

" The nominal headline number was not a clean valuation of reserves in the ground." 1. prospero26

That's for sure. This is called "theft". The US$42 billion liquefied natural gas project intended to unlock 47.13 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, could be in jeopardy because of the blatant and visible distrust.

" Orca’s transaction was a risk-transfer exit from a mature asset ... " 1. prospero26

Only an 'Olympic Gold Medalist' in the sport of 'Projectile Vomiting of Verbal Diarrhea' would qualify to say something this ignorant. There is lots of gas left in the contiguous area. Far from mature ... you must include WestSongoSongo, SongoSongoWest, SongoSongoNorth Extension and Kiliwani area. The two gas processing plants in the SongoSongo region won't be mothballed.

Any idea why Aminex can't afford $10?

Does Aminex not have $10 to spare?

Orca's subsidiary is being sold for $10 ... PAET/PAEM ... SongoSongo

Production of 70 MMscf/d

Several dozen paying industrial customers

Operates a gas processing plant

Built a 50 km ring main in Dar es Salaam 

Supplies power producers

CNG unit

Ask yourself, after more than 25 years of honest service, why is it so cheap?

Answer: endless endemic shenanigans.

Aminex will slowly fall into the same trap.

Does Aminex not have $10 to spare?

Highlights of the week

re: Orca

" It would be a no cash transaction of course. Issue shares for assets and Balance Sheet," vike1

Balderdash, utter gibberish.

Professor RoJo, sign this lad up for your remedial class.

= = = = = = =

After more than 25 years, the SongoSongo co-venturer has decided to bow out. Doing business in TZ has turned out to be almost impossible.

"The Songo Songo project has been a landmark undertaking for Tanzania and Orca. Having been involved with the project through its inception, negotiation, execution and development, I know the role it has played in opening Tanzania's natural gas era, supporting the development of gas-fired power generation and industrial supply, and building a highly skilled Tanzanian workforce and broader domestic capability in the sector. .... " DWRoss

Proposed Transaction, Taifa will acquire 49% of PAEM and Amber will acquire 51%.

PAET/PAEM

Production of 70 MMscf/d ... Aminex has no production

Several dozen industrial customers ... Aminex has not even one industrial customer

Built 50 km ring main in Dar es Salaam ... Aminex has no ring main

Supplying power producers ... Aminex supplies no one

CNG unit .., Aminex has no CNG unit

Total purchase cost $10.00?????

Where is Aminex hiding? Can’t they even spare ten dollars?

Tanzania’s shaky regulations, unpredictable tax policies, and lack of trust between business and government didn’t make things easy for those who gave it a genuine shot.

Scirocco, Wentworth, Orca—done and over with—Aminex is up next.

Aminex should take a hard look at the tangled mess it’s getting involved in. They’ll likely find a way to push Aminex out of the picture, even if it takes years to do so.

" ... Let’s deal in some facts:... " Prospero26

Yes, let's deal in some facts

NT-1 has not been reworked

NT-1 has not been retested

NT-2 has not been retested

CH-1 has not been drilled

Contracts can't be trusted

Payment is not guaranteed

Everything is contingent

If you want a glimpse of what’s in store for Aminex, just look at the three co-venturers who’ve already been forced into submission.

Weekly highlights

" ... others are watching the pieces fall into place. " Prospero26

Things fall into pieces when there is a lack of respect for contracts. A co-venturer at SongoSongo produced up to 45 MMscf/d at cost. The contract for this Protected Gas, after more than two decades, has expired. They still want that 45 MMsc/d for free. Full payment of gas and respect for contracts are both seriously lacking here.

Weekly highlights

" Markets don’t reward noise, they reward delivery." Prospero26

Markets don't reward delivery, they reward respect of contracts and full payment of gas sold ... something that is seriously lacking here.

A co-venturer at SongoSongo had an outstanding amount totaling US $104,164,507.41 as of January 9, 2025. They agreed to settle for US $52 million, with the Company keeping about $35.5 million and TPDC receiving the rest.

= = = = = = =

Other concerns: Don't anticipate an easy go of it with respect to ...

Corporate tax and VAT

Additional profits tax

Profit Gas payments

Regulatory payments

Regular payment

Payment in $ US

Several financial indicators point to instability

No revenue and persistent losses

Cash burn with limited liquidity

Shareholder dilution over time

Negative margins (gross, operating, and net)

Falling cash reserves

Breach of contract

" The deeper, more uncomfortable question remains unanswered: why does a country sitting atop 57 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves continue to spend billions of dollars importing refined petroleum for its transport sector? The answer is not geological. It is political." 1. henning

This is the deep offshore and yes, it is political. Equinor, Exxon-Mobil, Shell type to challenge this ... not poverty stricken Aminex. They've been trying to get a trustworthy contract for 13 years. Good example where politics and phrases such as 'breach of contract' can really slow things down.

" try not to get into any political debates as it’s of no use to anyone here." 1. wookiemonster

Just ask henning ... politics can have a huge effect on the market.

$42 B LNG is still stalled ... 13 years and waiting.

It’s not about the gas. They’re aware that trillions of cubic feet of contingent gas lie in the deep offshore.

Equinor, Exxon-Mobil, Shell .....

They need to know the legal system is fair.

They want to be able to rely on the contracts.

They need to know that disputes can be resolved fairly through arbitration.

This is why they’re keeping a close eye on Orca Energy Group—it’s their litmus test.

Phrases such as

" Breach of contract"

" Retrospective tax assessments"

" Prolonged bureaucratic delays"

" Legal uncertainty"

" In arbitration "

all contribute to a worrying level of uncertainty.

Aminex is not immune.

$42B LNG still delayed

13 years of negotiations

They appear to be worried about regulatory shifts and the legal system.

Can they trust arbitration?

" this is proven reserves " 1. wookiemonster

Aminex has 0.0 cubic feet of Proven 1P reserves.

" The figures you quote look more like the 2015 cpr. The cpr of 2018 states 763 bcf 2c." matherdj

The new team, using the same data, converted the old data and came up with these new numbers.

Suddenly the old report was made up?

Perhaps they should have called the old report as the ICPR .. the Incompetent Person Report.

Do you believe that? I certainly don't.

The issue is whether NT1. NT2 could be classified as exploratory or development wells.

Without being tested properly, they should still be classified as exploratory, not development.

When will they be tested properly?

" The already have an old CPR which has clearly fulfilled its purpose." 1. matherdj

The only "PUBLIC" CPR was in 2018 ...with very poorly imaged 2D seismic. 2C pending reserves of 81 Bcf from 2 wells without an extended well test which should make one rather uncomfortable.

Yes, there has been more seismic but not made Public via a PUBLIC CPR.

Pray, do tell how this 2018 CPR fulfilled its purpose.

Why is there no CPR?

Weekly highlights

" I must have missed what's going on at Orca, are they having to relinquish their licence for some reason? " NorthernMagic

" Given the increasing uncertainty relating to the License extension, the assessment of the long-term sustainability of the Company’s business in Tanzania has been very significantly and negatively impacted. The combined effect of the GoT's actions and inactions, together with the proliferation of unfounded commercial disputes, has materially reduced confidence in the stability of the operating framework for the Songo Songo project and its long-term prospects. While domestic demand for natural gas remains strong, the Company’s ability to invest in development initiatives to sustain current demand and meet incremental demand is contingent on securing an extension of the Licence on commercially acceptable terms, within a predictable legal and regulatory environment, and achieving satisfactory resolution of the governmental and commercial disputes currently affecting the Company’s operations in Tanzania." Q3 Orca Energy