Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Highlights of the week
" There's oil alright." 1. jamtart1
Tullow would not have abandoned TZ had they found oil just North of Nt-1.
" TPDC back-in rights, is upto 15% of the Ntorya development .... " blackgold00
Don't expect any back-in payment from TPDC. Orca Energy Group has been waiting 15 years for a back-in payment from TPDC. Do expect TPDC to be more than 'on board' and 'in your face'. Utilizing delaying procedural tactics often results in a postponement that can put Aminex in a financially precarious spot. Aminex has no control against these multitude of nefarious forces lined up against it.
The bigger concern should be whether or not TPDC will sanction the 'going concern' of Aminex. TPDC may consider purchasing the remaining assets of this foreign entity at a reduced price due to financial distress.
= = = = = = = =
Question of the week
It doesn't matter what the 3D seismic depicts. If you can't make a profit, you can't make a profit!
Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?
= = = = = = = =
There are so many issues still to be resolved.
Has a rig been contracted? Is there a rig available?
Is there a resolution to the foreign exchange reserve deficiency? Why would ARA proceed without a resolution to this issue?
It doesn't appear that cash flow will arrive in time for Aminex! What are they going to do?
It doesn't appear that they'll be able to retain the operator status for Kiliwani. What are they going to do?
How do you anticipate the company generating a profit when payments are made in Tanzanian Shillings?
Do you truly think that TPDC will proceed with a back-in payment?
= = = = = = = =
The company's track record is essentially 10 to 15 years of missed opportunity costs. Aminex is non sine periculo .... far, far from it.
" Wisdom consists in being able to distinguish among dangers and make a choice of the least harmful." 1. Machiavelli
Receiving a takeover offer can be considered fortunate and may be seen as a blessing if it occurs. Regrettably, the imposition of a substantial capital gains tax renders this option improbable. Perhaps, TPDC may be able to find a solution to this 'tax' issue.
Highlights of the week
"This whole situation is a result of a calculated plan to get control of the asset without giving shareholders any benefit. The government,tpdc and ara are in cahoots with each other to get aminex to run out of money so they can take over with little or no cost to themselves." 1. mj152
With a negative working capital, the company doesn't have enough money to pay the bills. Aminex is essentially a shell / surrogate / proxy of ARA. A single person could manage the entire company since there is little to do, perhaps only sharpening pencils. There is not much TO do because there is not much they CAN do.
= = = = = = = =
Consider the situation regarding the deficiency in foreign exchange reserves.
" There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
Aminex has a 25% interest in Ruvuma so Ruvima would need to produce 487.2 MMscf/d to equate to Orca's 121.8 MMscf/d. Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4 and the foreign exchange reserve deficiency was a contributing factor.
If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so. Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?
Brace for another delay and hope that Aminex doesn't follow Scirocco's trajectory A capital raise appears increasingly probable. The capital raise would trigger a significant drop in share price after the pump.
A decision must be made.
" Not to decide is to decide" 1. Laurence J. Peter.
Highlights of the week
" Sadly, it's always next year." 1. winalot
" ... or the year after that." 1. RoJo
= = = = = = = =
Re: Q4 of Orca Energy Group
“2023 was a challenging year for Orca, driven by considerable macroeconomic fluctuations and company specific uncertainties. Despite this, significant time and resources have been dedicated to planning for identified field development opportunities to support future production volumes.
The growing electricity demand in Tanzania has led to an increase in gas supply requirements. In response to this, we formally requested the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation to initiate the process of extending our development license in accordance with the terms of the Production Sharing Agreement. Extending the license will allow Orca to continue optimizing existing facilities, boost well and reservoir performance, and ensure a reliable and sustainable supply of natural gas within Tanzania's energy framework. During March 2024, a preliminary planning meeting was held with the Government Negotiating Committee to discuss the timing around negotiations. As we enter this critical period, I would like to emphasize the urgent need for all parties involved to engage in agreeing on a path forward to license extension.
2024 remains a critical year for Orca. We are prepared to commence several near-term operational projects, but there are a number of outstanding commercial matters that need to be addressed, in addition to the relevant parties involved agreeing a path towards a license extension. The Board and Senior Management recognize the importance of reliable and sustainable domestic gas production in Tanzania, so achieving further commercial development in the near term is imperative to progressing our operational work programmes. We will keep all our stakeholders updated as the year continues, updating the market as appropriate.” 1. Jay Lyons, Chief Executive Officer
" There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
Whilst producing at 121.8 MMscf/d, Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4. Look up the large currency exchange loss. If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so.
Scirocco is finished and Wentworth has given up. Both Orca Energy Group and Aminex are being squeezed.
" The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." 1. Niels Bohr
Highlights of the week
" Aminex is a well-run business" optrade
Aminex has no say or sway over anything. There is nothing to run.
" sitting on huge reserves " optrade
Contingent reserves aren't worth a wooden nickel.
"and having enough funds until expected cash flow receipts from sales of Ruvuma gas." optrade
Aminex currently has a negative working capital. In Q3, Orca Energy Group at 121 MMscf/d, earned $0.01/sh because of payment in TZ Shilling. That's what you can look forward to.
= = = = = = =.
The delays keep coming and the belief that the risk has subsided here lacks foundation. Some might contend that ARA will rescue the situation by providing the essential funding to avert a financial collapse of Aminex. While this may be true, there does also exist the possibility that a subsidiary of TPDC may abscond with the remnants of Aminex. ARA would not take offense to that, provided that the subsidiary is listed as a public company.
For Aminex to be of any lasting significance, it must continue to be a vital 'operator'. The complete development of Kiliwani is estimated to cost approximately US $140 million. Consequently, the odds of Aminex retaining the 'operator' status of Kiliwani is quite slim.
it’s common for companies to face significant challenges when they lose a crucial status or position. The loss of its 'operator' status will be an extremely difficult event for Aminex to overcome.
" Our sun is one of 100 billion stars in our galaxy. Our galaxy is one of billions of galaxies populating the universe. It would be the height of presumption to think that we are the only living things in that enormous immensity" 1. Carl Sagan
In a parallel universe, Aminex might retain its 'operator' status. That storyline appears extremely unlikely here.
Highlights of the week
"For a long time now AEX's fate has rested on the value it has to ARA and as long as that value value exists - they'll keep it alive.`1. SQ320
Aminex has been in the ' Progressive-Care Unit' for an extended period of time. ARA will keep it alive for now but one must not forget about TPDC. TPDC`s ambition is to split into two parts, the NewCo listed Oil & Gas part and the Regulatory part. If TPDC`s NewCo Oil and Gas part manages to mop up Aminex, that would be viewed as being quite beneficial to both TZ and ARA. The current President could gain a political edge in the 2025 election by helping TPDC displace this foreign insurgent Aminex. This political maneuver would appeal to many TZ voters.
"Again lots of positive words but so little action. Why do authorities promise something "very soon" then don't do it - doesn't sadly boost confidence in what they say versus what they do - and still we wait".1. Northern Magic
as evidenced by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
Ntorya -3 = CH-1. Six years waiting and counting.
" I could go along with your trading range especially now we are aware of the level of condensate tuat is to come with it..1. RogerJolly
More material for the next 'silly list'. Beware of the never- ending misleading information.
Repeat:
Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.
"Please God, give me strength" 1. RoJo
re: The God particle aka the 'Higgs Boson Particle'
The severe challenges faced by Aminex are comparable to the complexity involved in discovering the 'Higgs Boson Particle', despite Aminex not needing a 'Large Hadron Collider'.
= = = = = = = =
Aminex has divested the Ruvuma operator status and it has as good as lost its Kiliwani operator status. It is very much beginning to resemble Scirocco. Learn to be skeptical of their references to 'soon' or 'imminent' wordings. Any professional manager who placed a wager here is likely seeking new employment.
Beware the bs ramper whose shadow walks this stage. Know that Aminex can throw you some nasty curveballs when you think you have got it all figured out.
Dante's 'Nine Circles of Hell' should be expanded to 'Ten Circles of Hell'. The tenth circle would hold the generation long suffering Aminex shareholder.
Highlights of the week
"Approximately 68 per cent of Tanzania's 61.1 million citizens live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day. 32 per cent of the population are malnourished".
Investors are often misled into believing that they will become wealthy, despite poverty being a significant issue in Tanzania.
Regulations may change midstream, agreements may be altered or voided, payment may be delayed or disputed, payment may be in TZ Shillings, a VAT is added, corporate tax, additional profits tax, profit gas payment, Regulatory payments, halted payments, a deliberate stalling may be part of the plan. ... no, it is not easy operating in TZ. And it is especially difficult if you happen to be a disposable proxy of another firm.
Each day will present a challenge for Aminex. The endeavor to earn a dollar will be a constant battle, especially for a company considered a foreign insurgent.
" I fear they'll be hung out to dry, receiving peanuts at best." 1. RoJo
You have to applaud the foresight!
" Prepared to be shot down here guys, ,but would it be sensible for Aminex to capital raise to buy out scirocco for the future ruvuma payments." 1. Baramara
It would be more sensible for Aminex to capital raise in order to save itself. Aminex emulates the 'Hope, Float, Bloat' model.
= = = = = = = = =
re: CH-1
A discovery does not guarantee development, and even if development occurs, the timing remains uncertain.
re: timing events
'We must wait for the GSA signal, and it will blast out of here'... this had no impact.
'We must wait for the seismic release, and it will blast out of here' ... this had little impact.
'We must wait for the development license, and it will blast out of here '... this won't have an impact.
There is no certainty as to the timing of the development except for one certainty... expect another delay.
re: Condensate
Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.
re Pipeline
"Tanzanian authorities have indicated that the spur line will be completed during the first half of 2025."
Can Aminex survive this long? Aminex has a negative Working Capital. This carcass is already eviscerated. Without another placement, a single additional delay could cause this entire structure to collapse. As the 2025 election approaches, dare not to anticipate that this foreign insurgent will gain an upper hand over TPDC.
With each passing day, the skeletal framework of Aminex is becoming increasingly frail.
It is evident that Aminex is facing a significant problem.
Be cautious of the aggressive bs rampers. They claim to have all the solutions.
" It isn't that they can't see the solution. It is that they can't see the problem." 1. G.K. Chesterton.
Follow Wentworth's route and agree to be acquired at 30% above market.
Highlights of the week
" Do we all agree, there's only ONE Winner ?" Tanzania
Only one winner? How many shareholders are competing for this single prize
The past 15 years have seen many grappling with missed opportunities, prompting reflection on the path not taken.
" .... .greed is the major issue here...the government wants to keep changing the rules of engagement.I have said this before...we will not get our development licence until the LNG partners either get their licence or simply walk away ..... " 1. Alcapone1
" Several years ago when Magafuli was at the helm Shell walked away from negotiations saying they would only return after the licences for the onshore operators were issued." 1. Stret67
This makes sense.
" Believe me BG - they haven't got two shillings to rub together." 1. RoJo
True.
" I wouldn't be surprised Crusty if the TPDC are instergating their back-in rights to become part of the joint venture going forward." 1 blackgold00
This will never happen, but they'll still get their piece of cake and eat it too.
For nearly two decades .....
" TPDC has the right under the PSA to “back in” to the Songo Songo field development and convert this into a carried working interest in the PSA ... TPDC has not contributed towards any costs" 1. Orca Energy Group.
= = = = = = = =
What is the status of the supposed affordable solution for the Kiliwani-1 North problem that would allow production to resume?
Answer: First, you must address the poverty affecting Aminex.
Would it be difficult to find a pipeline contractor who is willing to take TZ Shillings?
Answer: Nigh to impossible.
TPDC aspires to be the leading National Oil & Gas Company. Aminex is on the brink of financial distress, a situation that TPDC would find advantageous. Applying pressure on Aminex would not be challenging. A single additional delay could cause this entire structure to unravel.
Scratch out Scirocco and Wentworth so far. Aminex is the next in line.
= = = = = = = = =
Beware the rampers.
"O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath" 1. Shakespear.
Follow Wentworth's example and agree to be acquired for a price that is 30% above market.
Highlights of the week
" .... Monetising those assets is so distant a prospect that is has next to no material value" 1. CrustyPete
The contingent gas isn't worth a brass farthing.
" Things are moving - but this is still a long way off being in the bag from my POV." 1 hardnose
Mais oui
" The condensate is going to be a massive earner and provide substantial additional revenue" 1 sharehead.
The above text contains misleading information of the type that our beloved Tanz so often encounters and trusts. Professor RoJo, please help to shield Tanz from this type of misleading nonsense.
GSA ... G stands for 'Gas' not 'Condensate' as in 'Gas Sales Agreement'. Gas is sold and only gas.
TPDC owns the 'Condensate'. Orca Energy Group and M&P/WEN can attest to that.
= = = = = = = = =
The completion of the pipeline has been delayed yet again by another six months, and even this new deadline is uncertain. TPDC has used its right of first refusal to acquire part of WEN, indicating its intentions. If Aminex faces another setback, it will have to beg desperately for help. A possible scenario is that TPDC would be interested in some sort of agreement with Aminex. The current President could gain a political edge in the 2025 election by helping TPDC absorb a portion of Aminex. This move would appeal to many TZ voters.
Nt-2 still hasn't completed an extended well test. Chikumbi-1 needs to come in as a BIG outlier success and that is what TPDC is waiting for.
A pipeline contractor who accepts TZ Shillings will be hard to find. Moreover, why would TPDC fund the pipeline before drilling of CH-1 is completed? And why would ARA/APT drill CH-1 without a Development License in place?
US Dollars are indeed scarce in Tanzania. Consider Orca Energy Group that earned a minimal profit in Q3, even though it produced 121 MMscf/d. This would be on par for Aminex having Ruvuma's production at 484 MMscf/d.
" ... The Company has requested assistance from TPDC and the Bank of Tanzania in sourcing USD for the 2024 capital plan ... " 1. Orca Energy Group
The pipeline's repeated delays could cause a huge increase in the need for more funding. This US$ and Shilling debacle is far from over. This obese company has over a staggering 5 billion shares outstanding. The previous raise was at 0.75 p. The next capital raise would likely be at a lower price... in my humble opinion.
= = = = = = = =
Beware the plethora of rampers ..... rely on your own due diligence.
" The bitter and the sweet come from the outside, the hard from within, from one's own efforts." 1. Albert Einstein
Follow Wentworth's path. Accept a takeover offer and enjoy a 30% premium to market.
Highlights of the week
" We need that Ruvuma income to restart operations at Kiliwani or find a partner that will fund it for us - but even then AEX will no longer be an operator of anything and that will be a very sad day - not only will we have become the next WEN but we will then become the next SOLO.... and look what happened to that." 1. CrustyPete
The Kiliwani 3D seismic was terminated by Orca Energy Group and without this, Kiliwani is dead in the water.
It is rather perplexing that one would want to purchase this stock. It is also rather perplexing that this company still even exists. The only remaining useful function it still has is its ability to siphon more cash from the gullible via a capital raise.
re: pipeline
" Possible solution would be for the company to advance a loan to enable it to happen sooner rather than later. Have been waiting 15 years for Aminex to succeed - how much longer?" 1. foraye
Aminex is financially destitute and can't afford a pot to pee in let alone advance a loan for the pipeline.
"Sell peeps, write this dog off. I did and it hurt at the time but I moved on to better investments. this is foobar.. just watch. " 1. commercia
= = = = = = = = =
The 'True/False' quiz with some added clarity..... continued from last week.
Here are the answers:
21) Geologic features of Ruvuma are identical to Mnazi Bay
False
Totally different.
22) All issues here are always easily and quickly resolved.
False
The issues are resolved at the same speed of a slug.
23) World gas prices have a strong bearing on local gas prices.
False
The local gas prices are contracted.
24) There are several levels of Government bureaucracy to deal with.
True
Each level has the potential to stall all progress.
25) Natural gas is more environmentally friendly than coal.
True but ..
Masdar's planned 2 000MW of Power using renewable and the anticipated 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) will both have a lower carbon footprint.
= = = = = = = =
Beware of the rampers .....
" Will you walk into my parlor? said the Spider to the Fly.
Tis the prettiest little parlor that ever you did spy."
1. Mary Howitt ... The Spider and the Fly
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Follow Wentworth's path and be satisfied with a 30% premium to market.
Highlights of the week
" The constant delays that is on lots of fronts with this company. " 1 NorthernMagic
= = = = = = = = =
The 'True/False' quiz with some added clarity..... continued.
Here are the answers:
14) LNG is a major growth opportunity for Aminex
False
No connection to LNG.
15) Institutional Investors are overly enthused to invest into a hemorrhaging, over bloated microcap.
False
This qualifies to be posted on the next 'silly list'.
16) Because finances are so strong, there is no need to worry about the negative working capital.
False
When the current liabilities exceed the current assets, that implies there is not enough money to pay the upcoming bills.
17) Natural gas is the only source to produce power.
False.
The 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) will come online eventually.
18) Rest assured, Aminex is in complete control over everything.
False
Rest assured, Aminex is in complete control over nothing.
19) Because of possible early gas cash-flow, expect stellar profits
False
Minimal.
20) Because of possible early gas cash-flow, expect a dividend
False
Just to remain a 'going concern' will be a formidable challenge.
= = = = = = = =
Beware the rampers .......
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive!"
1. SIr Walter Scott.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Follow Wentworth's route and be happy with a 30% premium to market.
Highlights of the week
" What a disaster this share is." 1. mj152
"a different route will be utilised initially whilst the pipeline construction is finalised." 1. wonderer
Is the plan to import millions of kangaroos from Australia, fill their pouches with gas and have them hop to Dar es Salaam?
= = = = = = = = =
The 'True/False' quiz with added clarity
1) Ruvuma 3D Seismic interpretation has been released
False
You would expect them to shout from the top of Mount Kilimanjaro if the Ruvuma 3D seismic depicted a 'World Class' reservoir. No information has been released.
2) Pipeline construction has started.
False
Money is an issue.
3) AEX has high hopes for Kiliwani development
False
Orca Energy Group was unable to secure the 3D seismic. Without 3D seismic, Kiliwani development is dead in the water.
4) AEX has a 'secure' source of near term 'material' income
False
Aminex has a negative income. Even with full production, Ruvuma would need to produce 478.2 MMscf/d to match Orca Energy Group's 121.8 MMscf/d. (25% of 478.2). Orca is struggling to make a profit. How long can Aminex continue to hemorrhage?
5) A firm drilling date has been set for CH-1a
False
Nt-1, Nt-2, Nt-3 were to be sequentially drilled in 2017/ 2018. Seven years later and Nt-3/ CH-1a has yet to be drilled.
6) 100% certainty that Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation is expected to reveal a 'World-Class' reservoir.
False
The odds are in favor of isolated small stratigraphic traps .. jmho.
7) They'll be able to maintain 'operator status' for KNDL
False
Aminex is financially destitute.
8) They have found a farm-in partner for KNDL
False
Doubtful they'll ever find one... jmho.
9) Production now expected by mid 2024 instead of Oct 2023.
False
Highly unlikely.
10) Delays are rare in Tanzania
False
Delays are a dime a dozen. Being proactive and on schedule in TZ is what is rare.
11) You can expect Aminex to displace Maurel & Prom in supplying Dangote.
False
Highly doubtful.
12) Tullow found vast quantities of oil at Likonde-1 well just North of NT-1
False
Had they found vast quantities of oil, they would not have left.
13) Dilution is a bullish development for the share price.
False
" The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time." 1. prosciutto: Dec 20, 2023
After this posted warning, you still had over 3 hours left to abandon ship. The very next day, Helium One dropped 70% on news of the dilution.
= = = = = = = =
This proxy of a company will require money. Cheap and easy money is not without consequences. The shareholders suffer the consequences. You should prepare yourself for further dilution. Any quick stock price movement will be met with inevitable exhaustion.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. F
The delays here border on unconscionable but understandable given that ...
" Orca continues to witness decreased availability of USD in Tanzania. To date, this has impaired PAET's ability to convert local currency into USD required for the Company's planned capital commitments in 2024." 1. Orca Energy Group. Feb 6, 2024.
Even though Orca Energy Group produced an average of 121.8 MMscf/d, Orca is struggling to make a profit. These scenarios are what Aminex can also look forward to.
What price was Helium One's placement at? What price do you expect Aminex' placement to be set at?
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Last week's 'True/False' quiz mysteriously disappeared.
Title: " Reality Check on Aminex"
Here are the answers:
1) Ruvuma 3D Seismic interpretation has been released
False
2) Pipeline construction has started.
False
3) AEX has high hopes for Kiliwani development
False
4) AEX has a 'secure' source of near term 'material' income
False
5) A firm drilling date has been set for CH-1a
False
6) 100% certainty that Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation is expected to reveal a 'World-Class' reservoir.
False
7) They'll be able to maintain 'operator status' for KNDL
False
8) They have found a farm-in partner for KNDL
False
9) Production now expected by mid 2024 instead of Oct 2023.
False
10) Delays are rare in Tanzania
False
11) Dilution is a bullish development for the share price.
False
12) Tullow found vast quantities of oil at Likonde-1 well just North of NT-1
False
13) You can expect Aminex to displace Maurel & Prom in supplying Dangote.
False
14) LNG is a major growth opportunity for Aminex
False
15) Institutional Investors love to invest in a hemorrhaging, over bloated microcap
False
16) Because finances are so strong, there is no need to worry about the negative working capital.
False
17) Delays are few and far between.
False
18) Rest assured, Aminex is in complete control over everything.
False
19) Because of possible early gas cash-flow, expect stellar profits
False
20) Because of possible early gas cash-flow, expect a dividend
False
21) Geologic features of Ruvuma are identical to Mnazi Bay
False
22) All issues here are always easily and quickly resolved.
False
23) World gas prices have a strong bearing on local gas prices.
False
24) There are several levels of Government bureaucracy to deal with.
True
25) Getting down on bended knee for an offer, may alleviate this mountain of misery.
True
= = = = = =
This proxy of a company will require money. Cheap and easy money without consequences, is a thing of the past. The shareholders will suffer the consequences. The good news is that someone wants Aminex' to maintain the 'going concern' status. Having said that, you should prepare yourself for further dilution. Any quick stock price movement will be met with inevitable exhaustion.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" My thoughts are that LNG can get good money " StockCheque
Aminex has no connection to LNG.
" But AEX has a history of over promising and underdelivering and I suggest that most, if not all lth would prefer the BoD to be honest and realistic after years of hyperbole, false dawns and serial disappointment." 1. CrustyPete
Even if production eventually does start, it won't have much of an impact. Payment in Tanzanian currency will hurt badly.
= = = = = =
The company has a negative working capital. The age of easy money is gone, and the shareholders will suffer the consequences.
Survey
a) Will a capital raise be required?
b) If so, what impact will this have on share price?
My answer
a) Most likely, yes!
b) Hopefully, it won't drop substantially lower, but it might.
= = = = = = = =
Be wary of the rampers with whom you swim.
" You don't know who's been swimming naked, until the tide goes out." 1. Warren Buffett
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" please stop filling the thread with patently hyper optimistic drivel." 1. apbristo
drivel ... good word.
" You should go to Tanzania to have look. people there not even has plenty house.only someof them made from grass and tree leaves." 1. 91 joyo
Question the morality of making a fortune off the backs of the poverty-stricken.
" As the current sp proves no amount of gas under the ground has a direct impact on the sp - reserves versus resources - without a GSA, a Pipeline, news on the workovers, drill contract etc it isn't worth much at all.... not in sp terms anyway." 1. CrustyPete
The peers forecast that, even with full production, Aminex' share price won't be worth much.
= = = = = =
Calculating the earnings even though there is no inflow of capital.
Let us assume Ntorya-2 is eventually brought online.
17 MMscfd, 25% interest, US $3.65 / mcf, 365 days /yr, > $4 million (G&A + minutiae), 4.123 557 000 Billion shares. ((17 MMscfd * $3.65/mcf * 365 * 0.25) - $4 million)) / 4.123 Billion = US $0.000403 /sh ( 0.000336 pounds/sh)
Aminex Earnings =~ US $0.000403 /sh. Not much to brag about but that is enough to send the rampers into a hyperbolic frenzy. Keep in mind, the Ruvuma breast-feeding with the free carry will last only so long and then the real costs kick in. You can easily sink US $500 million into Ruvuma.
This company is basically a 'proxy' company. It does not have a mind of its own. The company should not be considered to be independent. A gold-eagle coin it is not. This company is much closer to that of a castrated eunuch. They are going to need money. Cheap and free money without consequences, is a thing of the past. Do not expect them to raise money easily. The age of easy money is gone, and the shareholders will suffer the consequences.
The good news is that someone wants to maintain Aminex' 'going concern' status. Having said that, you should prepare yourself for further dilution. Any quick stock price movement will be met with inevitable exhaustion.
Be wary of the rampers whom you swim with.
" You don't know who's been swimming naked, until the tide goes out." 1. Warren Buffett
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" All I can take from that, objectively, is that progress is not as fast as anticipated and more delays, sadly lie ahead." 1 NorthernMagic
Yes! Call it diffusion, call it osmosis or whatever but this reality is starting to sink in.
" .... NT-2 workover in H1 .... `1. Wonderer
??????
There is no workover required for Nt-2
" Has rescheduled its two-week well-testing programme (originally proposed for late March 2023) on the Ntorya-2 well, designed to provide additional information required for the design of in-field processing facilities, to be completed in the coming months" 1. Aminex
= = = = = = =
Obviously, the company is faced with perpetual and multiple delays on every front.
" Has fully processed the 3D seismic data. Given the vast volume of data acquired, interpretation is now due to be completed in Q4 2023, which may result in a full revision of gas reserve and resource potential for the field." 1. Aminex
The 3D seismic interpretation is supposedly finished. So, why the delay with releasing the interpretation? Their thesis being that there will be a 'World Class' reservoir present.
It is fairly easy to avoid a fraud but what isn't easy to avoid is the failed, honest efforts with a good target, with good people and with a good thought-out thesis. But what happens if their thesis is wrong?
Is it possible they haven't found that 'World-Class' reservoir? ... mais oui
It is one thing being sanguine about the risk involved but what if there is no 'World-Class' reservoir present? Are you prepared to absorb a collapse in the risk- adjusted NPV?
Also, if past is prologue, the delays will most likely continue and the noose around Aminex' neck continues to tighten ever so slowly.
The raw juxtaposition of risk versus reward is so unclear you would wonder why anyone would dare touch this penny dreadful.
Be skeptical of the rampers.
" Modest doubt is called
The beacon of the wise" 1. Shakespeare.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Cont'd
" A little neglect may breed great mischief ..... for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost: for the want of a shoe, the horse was lost: and for the want of a horse, the rider was lost." 1. Benjamin Franklin
Don't be a lost rider.
X
To: ;
12/26/2023 09:01 PM
0
Edit
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Solar Energy produces electricity which produces the heat for this oil pipeline. Natural gas is not required. Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" at least 8TCF which was estimated by ARA as GIIP on the 2D seismic. Not sure how the gas can disappear. It's been drilled and proven to 3TCF. " 1. PageofCups
There is not even one cubic foot of 1P gas reserves.
= = = = = = =
Professor RoJo: re: your remedial class
Did you graduate this chap? You need to restart your remedial class. The level of knowledge needs to be elevated.
Teach them the difference between reserve and resource.
Teach them how useless 2D is ... nothing more than a model driven cartoon with many flaws in it in terms of reservoir disposition, updip, lateral and seat seal issues, sufficient charge focus, etc, etc.
Ask them how the 'Competent Person' of the 2018 CPR suddenly became 'Incompetent'?
Teach them about 1P, 2C, 3C etc and the meaning of the term "contingent". Also, make sure they know that 'Contingent' isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Teach them that revenue and profit are not the same. Yes, you have a student that thinks revenue is equivalent to profit.
Teach them how to read a balance sheet. Fundamentals do matter.
Teach them the danger of 'negative working capital'. They need to understand that If you can't pay the bills, you are in deep, deep trouble.
Teach them the difference entre 'reactive' and 'proactive'.
Teach them the danger as a non-operator... no say, no sway, no control over anything.
Did your beloved Tanzania pass this course? Also, sign up the "silly list" author .. the same jollyboy ramper of Helium One at > 9p.
Good luck with this formidable task.
= = = = = = = = = =
re: Helium One
" The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning." 1. prosciutto Dec 20, 2023.
The capital raise for Helium One was large as was the share price drop.... a 70% drop the very next day after my "implosion" warning. What similarities can you detect here?
============
This is a tough business environment in which to raise some cash. This doesn't bode well for Aminex. Any capital raise for Aminex may have to be at a lower price than anticipated. Perhaps, 2 billion shares at 0.5p will suffice.
Lesson: Do NOT neglect the balance sheet.
" A little neglect may breed great mischief ..... for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost: for the want of a shoe, the horse was lost: and for the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" FWIW RJ, I think He1 are really struggling to get the quantum of funding they need and even if they do it will come at the cost of HUGE dilution akin to the AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - neither having a pot to p iss in and requiring a "white knight" to ride in and save them - but at a "fire sale" price of course...." 1. CrustyPete
Yes, very insightful.
Orca Energy Group has over US $100 million in cash. It is highly unlikely that Orca would be interested in either of these two eunuchs. Perhaps, it could become interested at a really deep " fire sale" price.
= = = = = = = = = =
Whatever happened with the workover for Ntorya -1? Whatever happened with the well testing for Ntorya -2?
With these cascading delays, deliberately fabricated or otherwise, things could turn for the worse. Aminex has boxed itself into a corner.
ARA Petroleum will survive but can Aminex survive as a 'going concern' with these perpetual delays? The Gov't of Tanzania tends to be reactive instead of proactive and as a consequence, is notorious for slippage of timelines. Time is of the essence and Aminex does not have plenty of it to spare.
Take a look at what's happening over at Helium1
" In undertaking this costing exercise the Company has been cognisant of the contingency funding that may be required given the significant additional costs and time delays encountered during the drilling of Tai-3. " Helium1 Dec 5, 2023.
The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning. ARA Petroleum will most likely throw Aminex a lifeline but at what cost? ARA's duty to alleviate Aminex' financial distress is embedded within a 'conflict of interest' screenplay. A fragile and financially weakened Aminex makes for an easy prey, and they know it.
Since inception, Aminex has been nothing but one big disappointment after another.
" And nothing to look backward with pride;
And nothing to look forward to with hope." 1. Robert Frost
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" And has anyone looked at the chart since 1995? how many share are in issue today and how many next year? gulp " 1. commercia
Probably 1.5 billion more
" 8tcf based on 2d siesmics doesn't necessarily mean 3d will confirm that or more, it swings both ways. Clearer 3d siesmics might confirm what they thought was there isn't actually as much as they thought." 1. winalot
If you are expecting a World Class reservoir, you had best prepare yourself to be disappointed. This could be Tembo2. The interpretation of the Ruvuma 3D seismic would require positive confirmation. This is not a given. This is a totally different reservoir than Mnazi Bay. The 3D seismic must prove that this area is NOT comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas... ie, reservoir producibility issues which would lead to a very high well count and low recovery per well.
ie, how long did KN-1 last? Answer: Not very long.
= = = = = = = = = =
Lingering issues
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
3) There has been no final closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) The peers are struggling even with production that is well above anything you could ever expect from Aminex.
5) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are they working on?
If they proceed with a capital raise, there is no guarantee that there are enough buyers for 1.5 billion shares at 0.65 p. Check out Helium1 to witness firsthand the consequence of dilution on the share price. That is known as an ' off-the-cliff ' catastrophic share price collapse. With any dilution, you can expect a similar outcome here.
There is always hope but ...
" He that lives upon hope will die fasting" 1. Benjamin Franklin
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.