The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" FWIW RJ, I think He1 are really struggling to get the quantum of funding they need and even if they do it will come at the cost of HUGE dilution akin to the AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - neither having a pot to p iss in and requiring a "white knight" to ride in and save them - but at a "fire sale" price of course...." 1. CrustyPete
Yes, very insightful.
Orca Energy Group has over US $100 million in cash. It is highly unlikely that Orca would be interested in either of these two eunuchs. Perhaps, it could become interested at a really deep " fire sale" price.
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Whatever happened with the workover for Ntorya -1? Whatever happened with the well testing for Ntorya -2?
With these cascading delays, deliberately fabricated or otherwise, things could turn for the worse. Aminex has boxed itself into a corner.
ARA Petroleum will survive but can Aminex survive as a 'going concern' with these perpetual delays? The Gov't of Tanzania tends to be reactive instead of proactive and as a consequence, is notorious for slippage of timelines. Time is of the essence and Aminex does not have plenty of it to spare.
Take a look at what's happening over at Helium1
" In undertaking this costing exercise the Company has been cognisant of the contingency funding that may be required given the significant additional costs and time delays encountered during the drilling of Tai-3. " Helium1 Dec 5, 2023.
The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning. ARA Petroleum will most likely throw Aminex a lifeline but at what cost? ARA's duty to alleviate Aminex' financial distress is embedded within a 'conflict of interest' screenplay. A fragile and financially weakened Aminex makes for an easy prey, and they know it.
Since inception, Aminex has been nothing but one big disappointment after another.
" And nothing to look backward with pride;
And nothing to look forward to with hope." 1. Robert Frost
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" And has anyone looked at the chart since 1995? how many share are in issue today and how many next year? gulp " 1. commercia
Probably 1.5 billion more
" 8tcf based on 2d siesmics doesn't necessarily mean 3d will confirm that or more, it swings both ways. Clearer 3d siesmics might confirm what they thought was there isn't actually as much as they thought." 1. winalot
If you are expecting a World Class reservoir, you had best prepare yourself to be disappointed. This could be Tembo2. The interpretation of the Ruvuma 3D seismic would require positive confirmation. This is not a given. This is a totally different reservoir than Mnazi Bay. The 3D seismic must prove that this area is NOT comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas... ie, reservoir producibility issues which would lead to a very high well count and low recovery per well.
ie, how long did KN-1 last? Answer: Not very long.
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Lingering issues
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
3) There has been no final closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) The peers are struggling even with production that is well above anything you could ever expect from Aminex.
5) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are they working on?
If they proceed with a capital raise, there is no guarantee that there are enough buyers for 1.5 billion shares at 0.65 p. Check out Helium1 to witness firsthand the consequence of dilution on the share price. That is known as an ' off-the-cliff ' catastrophic share price collapse. With any dilution, you can expect a similar outcome here.
There is always hope but ...
" He that lives upon hope will die fasting" 1. Benjamin Franklin
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlight of the week
" Until progress consistently matches prediction I take every AEX proclamation of intent (particularly those with timelines) with a massive pinch of salt. I still think there’s potential here but it’s a long and frustrating haul." 1. apbristow
as verified by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
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With these perpetual delays, the negative working capital will inevitably reveal its ugly head. What does that entail?
A capital raise: Keep in mind that both the Auditor and the Directors have made comments regarding "going concern" and that additional funding may not be available.
They will need about 10 million British Pounds to take care of this negative working capital plus the massive tax obligation.
That would imply an offering of 1.5 billion shares at 0.65 p ... a dilution of ~ 26%
(4 210 + 1 500) * 0.0065 = ~ BP 37 million market cap.
ARA may elect to pick up the distribution at 0.65 p, but it's not guaranteed.
With a shortage of USD in Tanzania, it will be a really tough challenge to find enough buyers to pick up the secondary offering. The buyers have the option of waiting and thus putting the squeeze on Aminex. The squeeze could be deliberately manufactured. This could end up creating a new Scirocco-type denouement for Aminex.
Even under the best-case scenario that you could possibly map out, it will be tough going. Wentworth is currently producing at that level that Aminex is hoping to eventually achieve. Even now, Wentworth is struggling. Orca Energy will be producing > 130 MMscf/d when the 'Protected Gas' clause expires shortly. Aminex can only dream about those levels of production. Even Orca Energy Group, with over US $100 million in cash, is struggling because of bureaucratic delays. Aminex has no built-in immunity to the same issues that both the more mature Wentworth and Orca Energy Group are exposed to.
It appears that M&P might be successful with respect to the WEN acquisition.
Aminex should follow the same path as WEN. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlight of the week
" Some of the nonsense posted here by some is no more credible than the "To the Moon" crypto fools we must endure." 1. thisnthat
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What is your preference?
1) A capital raise?
For the amount of money that will be required, this will be a body slam. It will hurt and hurt bad. The "capital raise" won't take place at this current lofty elevation.
2) A farm down of the remaining 25%?
A farm down is most likely out of contention. A farm down for half of the remaining 25% interest might bring in US $8.75 million which is nowhere near enough.
They are between a rock and a hard place. The company is powerless because all of the events are outside of the company's control. It's a fact that they are in financial distress. This fact was published in their financial statements. Creating true shareholder value is an impossible task for the management team.
You should be able to decipher what is going on by now. At this point, you should know quite a bit.
" The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more" 1. Charlie Munger who passed away yesterday.
The short and sweet of it is this ...
There is far too much optimism about share price appreciation. You need to work on decommissioning this non-fulfilling proxy of a company. It has sucked enough money out of your pocket.
Highlight of the week
" Despite all the talk, this Company has gone nowhere for years, and I repeat has no drill rig, no drill pad, no pipeline, no GSA nor anything else, and the value of the 'free carry' is dwindling." 1. RoJo
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Any positive RNS on real progress won't push this anywhere.
Both Wentworth and Orca Energy Group took a hit after converting local payment into US Dollars. In Q3, Orca Energy Group barely broke even after taking a foreign exchange loss of US $3.19 million. This is a company that is currently producing 85 - 90 MMscf/d (Protected gas not included yet). This represents a production target that Aminex could only wish for.
At best, Aminex hopes to produce the equivalent to what Wentworth is currently producing. You'll notice a mutiny is currently unfolding at Wentworth. Call it foreshadowing of things to come for Aminex.
This ought to give you some insight as to what the future holds for Aminex and what to expect from Aminex even after the net 3.6 MMscf/d (25% of 17 MMscf/d) from NT-2 comes online. You can expect a further delay until this currency conversion issue is resolved. It makes absolutely no sense moving forward if this challenge is not accretive to earnings.
There are at least 15 issues that are sequentially linked to get this completed on schedule. See my contribution Feb 1, 2023
Assuming 90% probability of each event: (0.9) ^15 = ~ 20%. There exists a 20% probability that it will move forward on schedule.
This implies an ~ 80% probability that there will be yet another delay whilst the risk factor for a subsequent "capital raise" continues to rise. The "capital raise" won't take place at this current lofty elevation.
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The short and sweet of it is this ...
There is too much optimism about share price appreciation.
You need to work on decommissioning this non-fulfilling proxy of a company. It has sucked enough money out of your pocket.
Recent highlights ...
" Although, I wish operational success for long-term AEX holders, I think the current valuation of the company does not include the risk for an additional capital raise. Working capital is negative with 3.6 MUSD and liabilities does not include tax claims of about 7 MUSD ( without merit according to AEX management)." 1. HighYield
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You can expect a production of 'first-gas' delayed well beyond Dec 2023. This highly anticipated, miniscule, decoupled, first-gas net production of 3.6 MMscf/d from Ntorya 2 ( 25% of 17 MMscf/d) won't have much of an impact. This should lead to a liquidity crisis and a subsequent capital raise following the new CPR. The acrid smell of yet further dilution should be just around the corner.
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re: Wentworth
" Further, the decision included confirmation from the FCC that TPDC has the right to pre-emption of the M&P proposed transaction to acquire Wentworth." 1. Wentworth Operations Update Nov 13, 2023
Aminex should also expect these kinds of a bureaucratic hurdles / complexities to cause further delays.
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re: Possible Sale of the Company
1) Would an en bloc sale of the company not attract a capital gains tax? This would likely be 30% of the implied gain on the sale of the company which does not have any cost base.
Answer: Yes
2) Would you have to take into account corporate G&A given the high level of involvement to manage political and commercial risks?
Answer: Yes
3) is there anyone paying NPV(15) in Tanzania even with this new President? NPV(25) of the Proved reserves is likely closer to the correct number. Conventional wisdom is to pay for Proved plus half of Probable. In this case, i) there are no Proved reserves ii) the determinant of Probable in incremental gas markets, which is extremely unpredictable with TPDC. NOBODY is going to pay for contingent resources in Tanzania.
Answer: No
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" Oh BG - look at the SP !
How long have you been posting optimistic nonsense here? 10 years ? More ?" 1. RoJo
The market price for Aminex is NOT wildly wrong on a consistent basis. You need to encourage the takeover of Aminex. Up to this point, you may have failed to do so but, a failure is not a mistake. The real mistake is to stop trying.
Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
October 2023 was to be the 'first-gas' date as predicted by some. October has come and gone and no gas production.
" Production by October is nothing more than a pipedream. The subterfuge here never ends." May 2023 Prosciutto.
Production by the end of 2023 is nothing more than a pipedream.
Scirocco has left the playing field in tatters. Wentworth and Orca Energy Group are both experiencing difficulties as a result of the trials and tribulations they are being put through. Aminex won't be immune to this tough business environment. The word 'proactive' simply does not exist here.
The 'reality list' ... not the 'silly list' .. is listed below.
No Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation released.
3D seismic over SongoSongo and part of Kiliwani North Development License was terminated by Orca Energy Group.
No new Competent Person Report.
No Nt-1 well workover
Going onto 6 years waiting for the drilling of Nt-3 / CH-1
No GSA signed.
No Development License approved by cabinet of Ministers.
No Nt-2 well testing program
No Ruvuma License extension
No Pipeline
Cost of conversion into $US will be excessive.
Negative working capital.
No say or sway over anything.
No control over anything.
Non operator at Ruvuma
" Wisdom comes alone through suffering. " 1 Aeschylus "
Because of the extensive suffering of Aminex shareholders, there must be plenty of wise investors here. Perhaps, wise enough to encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year .. " Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR. Aminex
Drilling of Nt-3 (CH-1) was to start 2018. Over five years later and CH-1 still isn't completed.
Don't be deceived by bullish verbiage you are being exposed to.
" The truth is not always beautiful, or beautiful words the truth. " 1. Lao Tzu
Had you initiated the avoidance maneuver when advised to do so several years ago, you would have been much better off. Aminex is a company that has no raison d'être. The ' body / frame' of Aminex is desirable only because it can be 'partitioned' in order to raise more cash. Most likely, shortly after the CPR you can expect a capital raise. Aminex' position is similar to being enslaved inside a Venus flytrap.
Whilst hemorrhaging slowly, things are lonely, desperate and isolated for Aminex. How much endurance do you need and where do you draw the line in the sand?
" Solitude, isolation, are painful things, and beyond human endurance." 1. Jules Verne
Some good news with the SCIR news release but this shouldn't have much of an impact. Hopefully, you took some profits on this irrational exuberance.
In comparison to Orca Energy Group, AEX is already priced as if it were in FULL production.
Facts: Comparative Peer Analysis
The ambition for Aminex is to arrive at 35 MMscf/d (25% of 140 MMscf/d). Orca Energy Group is well beyond this level, and still has little market recognition. Orca Energy Group is trading well below its cash per share level. If this is what you are hoping to achieve, you had best get ready to be disappointed.
Yield: Aminex 0.00% .....Orca Energy Group 8.6%
Production 2022: Aminex NIL ..... Orca Energy Group > 86.8 MMscf/d additional gas + 35.8 MMscf/d protected gas which is set to become unprotected July 31, 2024. The protected gas is sold at cost. The company makes no profit on the protected gas but that is about to change on July 31, 2024.
Revenue 2022: Aminex NIL ..... Orca Energy Group > US $118 million
Earnings per share 2022: Aminex US $ (0.10) ..... Orca Energy Group US $1.39
Shares issued: Aminex ~ 4 211 million ..... Orca Energy Group ~ 20 million
Cash per share: Aminex US $0.001 ..... Orca Energy Group > US $5.15 (trading at US $3.45)
Market Cap: Aminex ~ US $66 million ..... Orca Energy Group ~ US $68 million (setting Class A to Class B price)
Enterprise Value: Aminex ~ US $69 million .. Orca Energy Group ~ US $33 million
Aminex is overvalued in comparison to its 'true' peer.
It may be time to adapt. Aminex has a negative working cap, '0' cubic feet of production and '0' cubic feet of 1P gas reserves.
" Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature's inexorable imperative. "
H. G. Wells
USD (000), Jun 30, 2023
Total Current Assets $6 598
Total Current Liabilities $10 206
At high risk for a capital raise. Raising money in this environment will be challenging.
Highlight of the Week.
Tanzania Energy Congress
KEYNOTE ADDRESS – PAN AFRICAN ENERGY
Speaker: EWEN DENNING COO Orca Energy Group: Sept 20, 2023
TANZANIA’S ENERGY PROJECTS ON THE WORLD STAGE: WAY FORWARD FROM IMPLEMENTATION TO MARKET
• Tanzania LNG: A mega project supplying energy to global markets
• Opportunities arising from the next generation of energy projects in Tanzania: Opportunities for local, national and international businesses
• Investments: How the Tanzania LNG will open top – bottom number business opportunities
• Options for Tanzania’s gas, LNG and energy production: Onshore, offshore, gas to power
• Exporting gas and LNG to the globe: Tanzania as a reliable and sustainable global energy partner
• Infrastructure development and creation: Supporting energy projects growth
• Tenders and contracts: What to expect next – what lies ahead in terms of real opportunities"
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Multiple-year delays are common here.
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year .. " Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR. Aminex
Drilling of Nt-3 was to start 2018. Five years later and still nothing.
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We are all still anxiously awaiting the 3D seismic interpretation. The 3D seismic has yet to prove that there is more than just isolated small stratigraphic traps/pockets of gas. This isn't a 'Mnazi Bay' type of reservoir.... different facies, different trapping configuration, different petroleum system. What the 3D seismic needs to do is prove that this is commercial both in scale and sustained rates.
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" The directors maintained their position of a full impairment over Nyuni Atea PSA CGU. " 1. Aminex
The word ' impairment ' is used frequently. You had best hope Ruvuma doesn't become impaired.
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The FREE CARRY is independent of the Working Capital. It is NOT an asset on the balance sheet as part of the current assets but then again, ignorance is bliss. It is the negative Working Capital you have to be worried about. What they have here is a case of the current liabilities being greater than the current assets. In simple English ... there is insufficient monies to pay the bills. Any adolescent subterfuge directed at good people like RoJo and Mick2020 is misplaced. Whilst most Oil& Gas have tripled in price over the last three years, this eviscerated carcass has dropped 80% since Mick2020 begged you to execute avoidance maneuvers.
" All men make mistakes, but only the wise ones learn from their mistakes. " 1. Winston Churchill
Aminex needs to figure out a way to decommission itself. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Tanzania Energy Congress starts next week Wed Sept 20th. Keynote Address is from Pan African Energy (Orca Energy Group). " TANZANIA’S ENERGY PROJECTS ON THE WORLD STAGE: WAY FORWARD FROM IMPLEMENTATION TO MARKET"
It would be worthwhile for Aminex to attend.
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Highlights of the week
" Any additional delay past the 30th September would put SCIR in default, they will not have paid any costs for over a year. Are ARA going to extend SCIR any more wiggle room after all this time? " 1. CrustyPete
With a negative working capital, there is a very big risk that the company will need additional funding. With the balance sheet ae week as it is, the plan of borrowing money is no longer on the table. No 'sane' banker would be willing to lend this company any funds. They likely have the option to borrow from ARA but that could place them in the same bind as SCIR. It may be very tempting, but you had best hope they do NOT take out a loan from ARA. Even though equity dilution will have a negative impact on share price, it appears to be the better of the two bad choices.
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" Many (most?) things planned don't happen and target dates are almost inevitably missed." 1. RoJo
Professor RoJo is very perceptive.
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" .... If the boat sinks .... " 1. Tanzania
It won't be ARA's boat that sinks. Orchestrated or not, there may be yet another delay. With a negative working capital this could precipitate the FULL collapse of Aminex into ARA's / TPDC's lap and they, acting as the salvage operators, would be quite pleased with that scenario.
There have been delays in the past. There are delays in the present and there exists a high probability of further delays.
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" .... now look what they have, 2 TCF of gas atm, .... " 1. Blackgold00
This needs to be added to the 'silly list". There is no end to the profusion of ignorance.
The reality here is that this Company does NOT have even ONE cubic foot of 1P gas reserves atm.
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The US $140 million to be spent on Ruvuma will only cover a fraction of what is needed. The entire area will be significantly higher, probably closer to US $500 million. Does Aminex have significant capital to help explore and help develop the contingent and prospective resources?
Aminex is near the top percentile of the worst performing Oil & Gas Stock. Aminex lacks the ability to move in or move out. Aminex is unable to plan or control anything. Aminex is unable to execute any plan.
Aminex needs to figure out a way to decommission itself. You must force the company to act and seize the day before it is too late. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" Well we're supposed to be eight weeks away from gas production so they better report something soon. " 1. Longtermholder
This level of misinformation is ubiquitous and only superseded by the 'silly list'.
" Incidentally POC what happened to those seismic results that you told us we should expect before April?" 1. CrustyPete
Everyone is still anxiously waiting on the Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation. You really don't want to read about " small stratigraphic traps". This is still an exploration asset and not a development asset. Chikumbi needs to come in big as an outlier success.... no small feat. You can't rely on the poorly imaged 2D seismic but the 3D seismic will provide that binary decision point.
You had best prepare a 'celebration of life' for Aminex if this 3D seismic is comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps/pockets of gas instead of a 'World Class' reservoir.
" They may well still get the spud in before year end, however, first gas will be pushed back to H1-24 by the looks of it." 1. cperkin
Reality is starting to sink in. There may be yet another orchestrated delay which may, with a negative working capital, precipitate the collapse of Aminex into ARA's / TPDC's lap.
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" Reducing our operating expenses and overhead significantly to protect the Company while the project is still not generating cash." 1. Aminex
This represents the exact summary of their financial predicament .... written in plain black and white for all to read. What more do you need? The company itself is saying the exact same thing you are being warned about. Remember, there is no money coming in. Those running costs do not stop. One more major delay and this entire house of cards comes crashing down.
There is a very big risk, that the company will need additional funding, as working capital is negative. With the balance sheet as weak as it is, the plan of borrowing money is no longer on the table. No 'sane' banker would be willing to lend this company any funds. Equity dilution appears to be the only solution.
Aminex exhibits a life of quiet desperation whilst the clock counts down and investors' " lost opportunity " costs continue to soar.
What has Aminex contributed to the past? .... not a thing.
What is Aminex contributing to the present? ... not a thing.
What influence does Aminex contribute to the future? ... not a thing.
So, why does it exist?
Even in the best of circumstances, things are far from rosy. If they elect to do a raise, you'll be looking at a massive dilution. If they elect to do a farm down, there won't be much left. This will evolve into either a Scirocco or at best, Wentworth. If you can extract a 30% premium to the 20-day VWAP per share, you should quickly take it.
Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regula
Highlights of the week
" I thought in a recent RNS they said they had a mass of 3D data that they would be assessing and would have a result towards the end of the year which might include a reassessment of resources. Sounds encouraging to me." 1. NorthernMagic
There is a need to clear up some confusion. The 3D seismic that is at risk of being cancelled is for the SongoSongo License plus part of Kiliwani North Development License (KNDL). This is completely independent of Ruvuma. Aminex has a 63.8% interest in KNDL. From Orca Energy Group's 's perspective, the Kiliwani North Development License would hold significant interest for them. Orca Energy and Aminex are joined at the hip. Orca was to absorb the cost for 12.5 sq km of 3D seismic over the KNDL and that's about a US $1.57 million gift. The 3D seismic should pinpoint new structures and stratigraphic leads. This is shallow water and very close to a new gas processing plant. There exists ample spare capacity at the gas processing plant and a 35 km pipeline is not required. The drilling and the tie backs could be handled by Orca Energy Group but now all of this 3D seismic is in danger of being cancelled which implies that any future plan for the exploration of KNDL is in danger of not coming to fruition. This turn of events is not particularly good news for either Orca Energy Group or Aminex.
" If you took your car to a garage for an repair and the company said it would take 3 days to get the parts and fix it, but 3 days later said it hadn't been done and would take another 3 days, you say ok but 3 more days later they say it's going to take another 3 days. The more iterations of this the more risk that you'll say enough is enough and take the car to a different garage." 1. StockCheque
You are overdue to move this vehicle to a different garage. There are so many profitable Oil & Gas companies out there you should be looking at. Why would you bother with this pos?
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This company has some of the weakest fundamentals ever which leads one to wonder where on earth are all of the gullible investors coming from?
USD (000), Dec 2022
Total Current Assets $7 127
Total Current Liabilities $9 917
Uh oh!
This requires money just to remain a 'going concern'. Aminex represents a redundant and unnecessary level of bureaucracy. What exactly does Aminex contribute?
Are you prepared to throw good money after bad? Aminex is not in control of its own destiny. It depends entirely on the agenda of others. If the pace of the agenda slows down or stalls, Aminex will hit a brick wall.
It is nearly impossible to get investors interested in a gas producer in Tanzania. You need only look at Scirocco or Wentworth or even Orca Energy Group which is trading below its cash level. At what point do you decide to act and call it quits?
"The most difficult thing is the decision to act. The rest is merely tenacity." Amelia Earhart.
Encourage the takeover of Am
Celebrated highlights of the week:
" I can also see a scenario where the zubairs clean up and shareholders get the crumbs" 1. Argus2
" I’ve been here for a good few years and plan to stay aboard. Even at the present price I’m still substantially down" 1. MCCO
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Orca Energy Group has US $102.8 million in cash as reported in Q2 This would be of interest to Aminex because Orca Energy Group could assist with ....
A) Kiliwani North Development License. ... Orca Energy Group / East Coast actually tried to buy part of this in the past history but were denied.
Unfortunately, " delays continue to hamper the progress of the 3D seismic project ... ..... As a result, the Company is now reviewing its options regarding the way forward for this project" 1. Q2 Orca Energy Group. They may elect to scrap the entire 3D initiative.
B) Nyuni is a highly prospective but Aminex can't afford to smell it let alone explore it.
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Aminex: information straight from the source itself
Yield: 0.00%
Production 2022: NIL
Revenue 2022: NIL
Earnings per share 2022: US $ (0.10)
Shares issued: 4 211 million.
Cash per share: US $0.001
Working cap: Negative
Why shareholders are so enthralled with this company is rather bewildering. Over a long term, this company has been one of the worst oil & gas performers.
Two possible reasons for the mini uptick.
1) They may have found a solution similar to what Wentworth thought they had.
2) A massive, short position is created after the stock price is moved up. The holder of the short position approaches the company. They agree on a placement of a few hundred million shares at a significantly lower price. The shorts cover and the company may receive a few million dollars ... enough to prevent insolvency. Alternatively, Aminex could borrow some funds from the same folks that Scirocco borrowed from with the same result.
Scirocco is struggling with the transfer of license interest to APT which is slated to be completed by month end.
Wentworth is also struggling because of the uncertainty of them being acquired. There will be many disappointed shareholders if they slip back into the same predicament that Aminex is currently in.
Both Scirocco and Wentworth have recognized the hopelessness of it all.
Aminex may be fast approaching this same level of recognition and acknowledgement.
Carpe diem, search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Celebrated highlights of the week
" Except of course for that multitude of rampers and rainbow chasers that have been exhorting all and sundry for years that they need to buy now FOMO.....! The only reason that the majority of those have been long term holders is because they all got stuck on a spike or their own creation and have never been able to get out...." 1. Crusty Pete
"What I am not prepared to do is to fraudulently sing it's praises, and have no respect for your view that as a shareholder that is exactly what you think I should do. I give an objective assessment and (like it or not) I have been proven to be absolutely right ." RoJo
And another 'objective' assessment below.
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Facts: Comparative Peer Analysis
Yield
Scirocco 0.00% Aminex 0.00%
Wentworth postponed??? Orca Energy Group 7.5%
Production 2022
Scirocco NIL Aminex NIL
Wentworth 29.7 MMscf/d Orca Energy Group > 135 MMscf/d
Revenue 2022
Scirocco NIL Aminex NIL
Wentworth US $37.8 million Orca Energy Group US $118 million
Earnings per share 2022
Scirocco US $ (0.53) Aminex US $ (0.10)
Wentworth US $ (0.07) Orca Energy Group US $1.39
Shares issued.
Scirocco 900 million Aminex 4 211 million (grotesquely obese)
Wentworth 180 million Orca Energy Group 19.8 million
Cash per share:
Scirocco US $ 0.0003 Aminex US $0.001
Wentworth US $ 0.17 Orca Energy Group US $4.84
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Aminex is hemorrhaging funds. The visibility in the marketplace here is extremely poor as demonstrated by the fact that Orca Energy Group is trading below its cash per share level. If one were to use the same metric on Aminex, then Aminex should be trading below US $0.001 (0.00078 Pound Sterling)
You can expect a delay beyond October 2023 for the highly anticipated, miniscule, decoupled, first-gas net production of 3.6 MMscf/d from Ntorya2. The pipeline to Madimba won't be completed by October. This should lead to a liquidity crisis and a subsequent capital raise. The acrid smell of dilution could be just around the corner.
What is holding up the interpretation of the 3D seismic? This is like a big black hole.
" So, if you feel you are in a black hole, don't give up. There is a way out " 1. Stephen Hawking.
The way out is to encourage the search for a strategic alternative. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Celebrated highlights of the week
" What nonsense is this PoC ?" 1. RoJo
" We are also months away from the drill " 1. StockCheque
Evidence that reality has started to creep in.
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What exactly does Aminex NOT have?
Aminex is a company that does not have control over anything.
Aminex is a company that does not have any say or sway over anything.
Aminex is a company that does not have any production, cash flow, income, a dividend, time to spare or a signed GSA.
Aminex is a company that does not have a raison d'être.
etc.
What exactly does Aminex have?
Aminex does have a negative working capital.
Aminex does have millions of dollars' worth of tax assessments. pg 66 of Annual Report
etc.
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Comparative Analysis:
Wentworth is producing ~ 31.94% of 90 MMscf/d ~ = 28.7 MMscf/d. Wentworth has stalled
Orca Energy Group is producing ~ > 135 MMscf/d (including protected gas). Orca Energy Group has stalled.
Ruvuma's NT-2: (25% - TPDC back in = 21.25%. ) 21.25% of 17 MMscf/d = 3.61 MMscf/d. This miniscule decoupled first gas production won't get any traction whatsoever. Wentworth has seven times as much production. Orca Energy Group has thirty-seven times as much production.
In order for Aminex to match Mnazi Bay, Ruvuma would need to produce 90 / 0.2125 = 423 MMscf/d. In order for Aminex to match Orca Energy Group, Ruvuma would need to produce 135 / 0.2125 = 635 MMscf/d. The ' silly list' will likely include this projection in the next revision and some will undoubtedly believe it.
Aminex is walking on a financial tightrope. It is totally mystifying the amount of intrigue for this risky proposition.
Having said that, Aminex is not entirely hopeless. Two prospective bright spots for Aminex are Nyuni and KNDL.
From Orca Energy Group's 's point of view, the Kiliwani North Development License would be of interest to them. Orca Energy and Aminex are joined at the hip. Orca is covering the cost for 12.5 sq km of 3D seismic over the KNDL and that's about a US $1.57 million gift. Orca is obviously interested. The 3D seismic should pinpoint new structures and stratigraphic leads. This is shallow water and very close to a gas processing plant. Immediate access and no 35 km pipeline required. The drilling and the tie backs could be handled by Orca Energy Group.
" The [3D] incursion into the KNDL should provide valuable data to improve structural mapping and refine the prospectivity of the Kiliwani North and South structures " 1. Charles Santos
Orca Energy Group has ~ US $96.3 million in cash. They are skilled as an operator and intimately acquainted with the World Class ' SongoSongo' reservoir. Assuming the 3D seismic proves noteworthy, Aminex should entertain a farm out of their 63.8% of KNDL
Nyuni is highly prospective but it's totally out of reach for this financially distressed Aminex.
It will be a major challenge to get a KND
recent celebrated highlights
" i do find it somewhat surprising that with all this 'good news' and millions of income and tax exemptions that the sp is still languishing. " 1. rojo
" they have no knowledge of when they will be starting the groundwork for the pipeline nor if or who is contracted to build it " 1. crusty pete. thank you for your objective assessment of the agm, cp
" first gas still expected october " the 'silly list ' author. june 6th, 2023.
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they'll be lucky to start the gas pipeline by end of october.
what we have here is a globular cluster of excessive bureaucracy. another delay is possible.
tanz: no mick2020 here. he is a very perceptive man. he tried desperately, on several occasions, to save your financial ass at > 4p. he obviously failed to do so. wentworth was, and still is, a quantum-leap better shape than aminex. if that acquisition fails, wentworth will fall back into the same 'abyss of despair' where aminex currently resides.
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" we have successfully acquired the necessary funds via our equity placing in april 2022 to ensure our running costs are covered (before one-off and exceptional items) until receipt of revenues." 1. aex
dec 31st, 2022. annual report
current assets ... us $7.1 million
current liabilities ... us $9.9 million
this must have been a printing error! it clearly shows the current liabilities is larger than the current assets.
creative accounting 101 ... just ignore the balance sheet and hopefully, no one will notice.
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keeping the operator status for kndl, whilst not having a pot to **** in, would certainly be cause for a massive capital raise. this narrative just wouldn't work without massive dilution. the only reason you would even entertain this ridiculous idea is to prevent the cessation of salary emoluments. this company represents a redundant layer of bureaucracy with no raison d'être. this company is essentially acting as a shill. notice the preeminent spokesperson at the agm wasn't the ceo of aminex. could the comedian mr. bean, run this company just as effectively at a fraction of the cost?
scirocco, wentworth, orca energy, and maurel & prom ate all getting royally screwed over.
who is next in line to be royally screwed over?
bring an end to this status as an enslaved shill. encourage the search for a strategic alternative. be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Celebrated highlights of the week
" Years not months StockCheque. lol " 1. Honest Tom
" Typically. there is a cloud right over NT-1 on today's Satellite view!" 1. StockCheque
Typically, there is a cloud of uncertainty over this entire company every day.
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Status:
Aminex has a negative working capital. This fact didn't make it onto the promotional 'silly list'. The 'Negative Working Capital' and the 'Free Carry' are mutually exclusive conditions. The ' Free Carry' isn't going to alter the fact that they don't have enough liquid assets (money) to pay for the short-term obligations.
What are the options?
1) Capital raise. This causes dilution along with share price weakness. This will tighten the noose around their neck.
2) Farm out part of the remaining 25% of Ruvuma. Becoming so eviscerated, they may as well call it quits.
3) Farm out of KNDL. This is the best option of the three, but approval / timing could become a serious issue.
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re: Oil discussions
Forget about the oil. There is a reason why Tullow left. There was no commercial quantity of oil discovered at Likonde-1 which is just North of CH-1. APT is working on a GSA... the G stands for 'Gas' and not 'Oil'. 100% of the proceeds of any liquid condensates, currently produced by the co-venturers, go directly to TPDC and NOT to the co-venturer.
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The acquisition of Wentworth may be at risk. The decline in WEN's share price is understandable. If the acquisition fails, Wentworth will revert back into its former 'abyss of despair' which Aminex currently occupies.
Tomorrow is a big day for the shareholders. They have an opportunity to converse with management. Your task is to find out if the emperor is wearing any clothes. The questions were designed to penetrate through the thin illusionary veneer. There is no copyright on the questions so feel free to ask them if Tanzania fails to do so.
Repeat of Questions
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are you working on?
3) The Scirocco deal has yet to obtain a 'Clearance Certificate'. Also, there has been no closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) Are you still on schedule for October gas production?
5) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Cont'd
The company has no raison d'être. Before it is too late, what you want to hear from management on July 13th, is the following .....
" We have come to the realization how difficult things are at present and thus we have opted to seek out a strategic alternative for the company. "