Member Info for prosciutto

A multi-decade veteran co-venturer at SongoSongo:

79.7 MMscf/d, US $8.8 million in earnings. The Aminex equivalent needed for Ruvuma would be 318.8 MMscf/d.

After almost 25 years, they’ve decided to stop trying to do business in Tanzania.

Available for US $10 total ... not a printing error ... US $10 total.

Aminex:

4.47 billion shares

Nt-2: 17 MMscf/d ... maybe.

Remember, when AEX spudded Nt-2, it was never properly tested.

Prorated: ((((0.25 * 17) / 79.7) * 8.8) / 4 470)

Projected Earnings Per Share for Aminex = ~ US $0.0001

Aminex faces serious cash flow pressures.

Looks like they’ll require another equity raise.

Note that Santos sold all of his shares.

" Here's the smell of blood still. All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand." 1. Shakespeare, Macbeth

We now have two decades of prolonged misery and still awaiting an updated 2018 CPR.

This is just pure nonsense and the setup here is becoming truly laughable.

" What impact on the AEX sp do you think there might be on the news that ARA was out at Ruvuma?" 1. BritishPeculeum

The smart move for ARA would be to stall for a couple of years. This would achieve two things: first, it would put serious pressure on the government of TZ to negotiate a fair contract and hope that arbitration plays out in their favor; second, it would likely cause Aminex’s share price to crash, allowing TPDC to scoop up the company at a basement price.

Working with a regulator as a partner would offer many benefits.

What does Mr Ambrose do all day?

How many shares does he own after selling 500 000? Ans: 0

" … Songo Songo/Orca is definitely relevant to Ruvuma, and I am sure that ARA will have factored-in the political/commercial risk/reward trade-off when they decided to underwrite the farm-in of Ruvuma.... " 1, BritishPeculeum 

Items which did NOT have a chance of being factored in include ...

1.There was an outstanding amount totaling US $104,164,507.41 to Orca as of January 9, 2025. They settled for US $52 million, with the Company keeping about $35.5 million and TPDC receiving the rest.

2. Their 'Protected Gas' contract expired. This was ignored and they still insisted on taking up to 45 MMscf/d at cost

3. The Gov't of TZ has failed to extend their License which is normally extended as standard practice.

4. A subsequent plethora of government and commercial disputes

5. The ramp up of issues with the legal and regulatory environment.

After 25 years as a driving force in the build out of Tanzania’s gas industry, Orca has concluded that remaining in this market no longer makes any economic business sense. Feeling betrayed, they decided it is best to walk away. Consistent payment is an issue and doing business in Tanzania has many cumulative risks. 

" What impact on the AEX sp do you think there might be on the news that ARA was out at Ruvuma?" 1. BritishPeculeum

The smart move for ARA would be to stall for a couple of years. This would achieve two things: first, it would put serious pressure on the government of TZ to negotiate a fair contract and hope that arbitration plays out in their favor; second, it would likely cause Aminex’s share price to crash, allowing TPDC to scoop up the company at a basement price.

Weekly Highlights

re: Orca ...beware the fake news from Prospera Island.

" carrying licence-renewal uncertainty... " 1. prospero26

Orca is being strangled by not being granted their license renewal.

" disputes ,... " 1. prospero26

A history of no payment, late payment, partial payment, wrong currency payment tends to lead to disputes. There was an outstanding amount totaling US $104,164,507.41 as of January 9, 2025. They settled for US $52 million, with the Company keeping about $35.5 million and TPDC receiving the rest.

" arbitration exposure, " 1. prospero26

There is a reason why capex is down 98%. When a contract is no longer a contract, one needs to be worried. Arbitration doesn't even work .

" legacy commercial issues ... "

PAET's legacy, in the last twenty-five years, includes being instrumental in developing the Tanzanian commercial gas industry and supplying the gas power industry from the ground up. PAET has nourished several dozen commercial clients with natural gas ... all hooked up to the 50 km ring main they constructed in Dar es Salaam.

" and future obligations... " 1. prospero26

Tanzania lacks a clear, practical framework that promotes investment. They have a regulatory instability, inconsistent tax treatment and weak respect for a 'contract' between business and government.

" The nominal headline number was not a clean valuation of reserves in the ground." 1. prospero26

That's for sure. This is called "theft". The US$42 billion liquefied natural gas project intended to unlock 47.13 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, could be in jeopardy because of the blatant and visible distrust.

" Orca’s transaction was a risk-transfer exit from a mature asset ... " 1. prospero26

Only an 'Olympic Gold Medalist' in the sport of 'Projectile Vomiting of Verbal Diarrhea' would qualify to say something this ignorant. There is lots of gas left in the contiguous area. Far from mature ... you must include WestSongoSongo, SongoSongoWest, SongoSongoNorth Extension and Kiliwani area. The two gas processing plants in the SongoSongo region won't be mothballed.

Any idea why Aminex can't afford $10?

Does Aminex not have $10 to spare?

Orca's subsidiary is being sold for $10 ... PAET/PAEM ... SongoSongo

Production of 70 MMscf/d

Several dozen paying industrial customers

Operates a gas processing plant

Built a 50 km ring main in Dar es Salaam 

Supplies power producers

CNG unit

Ask yourself, after more than 25 years of honest service, why is it so cheap?

Answer: endless endemic shenanigans.

Aminex will slowly fall into the same trap.

Does Aminex not have $10 to spare?

Highlights of the week

re: Orca

" It would be a no cash transaction of course. Issue shares for assets and Balance Sheet," vike1

Balderdash, utter gibberish.

Professor RoJo, sign this lad up for your remedial class.

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After more than 25 years, the SongoSongo co-venturer has decided to bow out. Doing business in TZ has turned out to be almost impossible.

"The Songo Songo project has been a landmark undertaking for Tanzania and Orca. Having been involved with the project through its inception, negotiation, execution and development, I know the role it has played in opening Tanzania's natural gas era, supporting the development of gas-fired power generation and industrial supply, and building a highly skilled Tanzanian workforce and broader domestic capability in the sector. .... " DWRoss

Proposed Transaction, Taifa will acquire 49% of PAEM and Amber will acquire 51%.

PAET/PAEM

Production of 70 MMscf/d ... Aminex has no production

Several dozen industrial customers ... Aminex has not even one industrial customer

Built 50 km ring main in Dar es Salaam ... Aminex has no ring main

Supplying power producers ... Aminex supplies no one

CNG unit .., Aminex has no CNG unit

Total purchase cost $10.00?????

Where is Aminex hiding? Can’t they even spare ten dollars?

Tanzania’s shaky regulations, unpredictable tax policies, and lack of trust between business and government didn’t make things easy for those who gave it a genuine shot.

Scirocco, Wentworth, Orca—done and over with—Aminex is up next.

Aminex should take a hard look at the tangled mess it’s getting involved in. They’ll likely find a way to push Aminex out of the picture, even if it takes years to do so.

" ... Let’s deal in some facts:... " Prospero26

Yes, let's deal in some facts

NT-1 has not been reworked

NT-1 has not been retested

NT-2 has not been retested

CH-1 has not been drilled

Contracts can't be trusted

Payment is not guaranteed

Everything is contingent

If you want a glimpse of what’s in store for Aminex, just look at the three co-venturers who’ve already been forced into submission.

Weekly highlights

" ... others are watching the pieces fall into place. " Prospero26

Things fall into pieces when there is a lack of respect for contracts. A co-venturer at SongoSongo produced up to 45 MMscf/d at cost. The contract for this Protected Gas, after more than two decades, has expired. They still want that 45 MMsc/d for free. Full payment of gas and respect for contracts are both seriously lacking here.

Weekly highlights

" Markets don’t reward noise, they reward delivery." Prospero26

Markets don't reward delivery, they reward respect of contracts and full payment of gas sold ... something that is seriously lacking here.

A co-venturer at SongoSongo had an outstanding amount totaling US $104,164,507.41 as of January 9, 2025. They agreed to settle for US $52 million, with the Company keeping about $35.5 million and TPDC receiving the rest.

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Other concerns: Don't anticipate an easy go of it with respect to ...

Corporate tax and VAT

Additional profits tax

Profit Gas payments

Regulatory payments

Regular payment

Payment in $ US

Several financial indicators point to instability

No revenue and persistent losses

Cash burn with limited liquidity

Shareholder dilution over time

Negative margins (gross, operating, and net)

Falling cash reserves

Breach of contract

" The deeper, more uncomfortable question remains unanswered: why does a country sitting atop 57 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves continue to spend billions of dollars importing refined petroleum for its transport sector? The answer is not geological. It is political." 1. henning

This is the deep offshore and yes, it is political. Equinor, Exxon-Mobil, Shell type to challenge this ... not poverty stricken Aminex. They've been trying to get a trustworthy contract for 13 years. Good example where politics and phrases such as 'breach of contract' can really slow things down.

" try not to get into any political debates as it’s of no use to anyone here." 1. wookiemonster

Just ask henning ... politics can have a huge effect on the market.

$42 B LNG is still stalled ... 13 years and waiting.

It’s not about the gas. They’re aware that trillions of cubic feet of contingent gas lie in the deep offshore.

Equinor, Exxon-Mobil, Shell .....

They need to know the legal system is fair.

They want to be able to rely on the contracts.

They need to know that disputes can be resolved fairly through arbitration.

This is why they’re keeping a close eye on Orca Energy Group—it’s their litmus test.

Phrases such as

" Breach of contract"

" Retrospective tax assessments"

" Prolonged bureaucratic delays"

" Legal uncertainty"

" In arbitration "

all contribute to a worrying level of uncertainty.

Aminex is not immune.

$42B LNG still delayed

13 years of negotiations

They appear to be worried about regulatory shifts and the legal system.

Can they trust arbitration?

" this is proven reserves " 1. wookiemonster

Aminex has 0.0 cubic feet of Proven 1P reserves.

" The figures you quote look more like the 2015 cpr. The cpr of 2018 states 763 bcf 2c." matherdj

The new team, using the same data, converted the old data and came up with these new numbers.

Suddenly the old report was made up?

Perhaps they should have called the old report as the ICPR .. the Incompetent Person Report.

Do you believe that? I certainly don't.

The issue is whether NT1. NT2 could be classified as exploratory or development wells.

Without being tested properly, they should still be classified as exploratory, not development.

When will they be tested properly?

" The already have an old CPR which has clearly fulfilled its purpose." 1. matherdj

The only "PUBLIC" CPR was in 2018 ...with very poorly imaged 2D seismic. 2C pending reserves of 81 Bcf from 2 wells without an extended well test which should make one rather uncomfortable.

Yes, there has been more seismic but not made Public via a PUBLIC CPR.

Pray, do tell how this 2018 CPR fulfilled its purpose.

Why is there no CPR?

Weekly highlights

" I must have missed what's going on at Orca, are they having to relinquish their licence for some reason? " NorthernMagic

" Given the increasing uncertainty relating to the License extension, the assessment of the long-term sustainability of the Company’s business in Tanzania has been very significantly and negatively impacted. The combined effect of the GoT's actions and inactions, together with the proliferation of unfounded commercial disputes, has materially reduced confidence in the stability of the operating framework for the Songo Songo project and its long-term prospects. While domestic demand for natural gas remains strong, the Company’s ability to invest in development initiatives to sustain current demand and meet incremental demand is contingent on securing an extension of the Licence on commercially acceptable terms, within a predictable legal and regulatory environment, and achieving satisfactory resolution of the governmental and commercial disputes currently affecting the Company’s operations in Tanzania." Q3 Orca Energy

Weekly highlights

re: Orca

" ... Unfortunately, and despite our best efforts, the Government of Tanzania refuses to engage with us in a constructive negotiation on the extension and future of the development of the Songo Songo license and field. We are prepared for those negotiations, and will, in the meantime, continue to advance the arbitration proceedings to enforce the obligations of the Government of Tanzania under the Songo Songo project agreements and bi-lateral investment treaty with Mauritius. Given the circumstances, we have no compelling business case to reinvest or retain excess cash, and are honouring our Board’s long-standing commitment to return excess funds to shareholders. The Company has sufficient liquidity to meet its obligations following payment of this special dividend.” J Lyons CEO Orca Energy

" “Total Proved plus Probable (“2P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2025, were 19.2 Bcf”

It puts the scale of Ntorya in context!" . Ufufuo

The level of obfuscation here is only matched by the level of ignorance, and that’s the main thing to keep in mind. There’s still plenty of gas in the area, with reserves tied to a license that, under the current deal, ends in October. As such, the reserves represent this year's production. They’re producing about 65 MMscf/d, supplying dozens of industrial customers via a 50 km ring main they built themselves in Dar es Salaam. Production will continue beyond October, but with a breach of contract and refusal to extend the license, they’ve essentially tightened a noose around Orca’s neck. Scirocco, Wentworth, Orca… who’s next?

" Orca’s licence is still set to expire in early October this year. No news on any progress resolving their dispute. That’s ~8 months remaining. ...... ." 1. Ufiufuo

The 60–70 MMscf/d output will continue even if Orca is no longer in charge. TPDC may take over this turnkey operation that Orca spent 20 years building. Major oil and gas companies tied to the US $42 billion LNG project will be watching this closely to see how things unfold before committing to any contracts.

Re: Aminex

" ... a hand-to-mouth outfit, barely solvent, with a minority interest in Ruvuma and no control over how/when Ruvuma gets delivered... " 1. BritishPetroleum

Correct, Aminex is nothing more than a utilitarian tool, stripped of any real power or influence. A lucrative management job for a janitor.

= = = = = = = =

" There's small choice in rotten apples" 1. Shakespeare

AI generated

= = = = = = = = =

Aminex PLC carries a reputation for being a high‑risk, highly speculative investment, and the reasons become clear once you look at its fundamentals, business model, and operating environment.

⚠️ Key Reasons Aminex PLC Is Considered Risky

🛢️ 1. Dependence on a Single Gas Project

Aminex’s future hinges almost entirely on one asset: the Ntorya gas project in Tanzania. If development stalls, partners withdraw, or government approvals slow down, the company has no diversified revenue streams to fall back on. This creates a classic single‑asset risk profile.

📉 2. Weak Financial Health

Several financial indicators point to instability:

Negligible revenue and persistent losses

Cash burn with limited liquidity

Shareholder dilution over time

Negative margins (gross, operating, and net)

Falling cash reserves year over year

For example, revenues fell 65% in one year, while losses widened significantly.

💸 3. Poor Profitability Metrics

Aminex shows:

Net profit margin around –13,592%

Return on assets –12.6%

Return on equity –17.6%

These numbers reflect a company that is not generating value from its assets or capital.

🤝 4. Reliance on Partners and Government

Success depends heavily on:

The operating partner’s ability to execute

Tanzanian government approvals and regulatory stability

Any delays or policy shifts can materially impact progress.

📊 5. Volatile and Minimal Operating Performance

Even when revenue grows quarter‑to‑quarter, the absolute numbers are tiny, and margins remain negative. For example, a quarter with “100% revenue growth” still resulted in a negative gross profit.

🧭 Bottom Line

Aminex PLC is best understood as a speculative bet rather than a stable investment. Its financial fragility, reliance on a single undeveloped asset, and exposure to external partners and government decisions make it suitable only for investors with a high tolerance for risk and long timelines.