Member Info for prosciutto

Highlights of the week

" Thankfully Kinyerezi is supplied by M&P and not Orca. " 1. Crusty Pete

Kind Sir: A vacancy exists in Professor RoJo's remedial class.

PanAfrican Energy Tanzania (PAET) is a subsidiary of Orca Energy Group.

PAET also supplies gas, via TPDC, to both Kinyerezi1 and Kinyerezi2 power plants.

= = = = = =

The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project has commenced commercial operations, with progressive commissioning of 5 turbines allowing peak output of over 700 MW.

As the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project progresses towards 2 000 MW, you can expect the gas liftings to decrease. Perhaps, the pipeline will be delayed again because of this. Any further delay would be a major calamity for this poverty-struck Aminex.

" FWIW I still do not believe we will see 0.90p but with further delays and continued "radio silence" it is a possibility, particularly if the April production deadline is compromised." 1, Crusty Pete

"When" the April production deadline is compromised.

Lots of talk and very little progress.

Highlights of the week

" 3. Who is going to pay for the pipeline?

Likely, TPDC " 1. Bullfrog

Likely, not TPDC... jmho

" Is StockCheque/Haggis/McTripe a resident troll ?

I think he might be. He certainly spews out a huge amount of rubbish." RoJo

Reality check

1. He has taken over RogerJolly's 'silly list' from a few years back.

The reality he fails to mention is that Aminex has 0.0 cf of 1 P reserves.

2. NT-2 : A small possibility of 25% of 17 MMscf/d - 15% for TPDC = 3.6 MMscf/d which is peanuts. A co-venturer producing twenty times this amount is struggling partly because of the foreign exchange issue for which Aminex has no immunity. They are also being forced to produce up to 45 MMscf/d without full payment.

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Questions of the week

" Total Current Assets: US $4.6 million

Total Current Liabilities: US $8.2 million " 1. Aminex Annual Report

This is a recipe for a disaster.

Could you kindly clarify what aspect of this fact is not clear to you?

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Aminex is facing many challenges. It is rapidly depleting its funds and, just as critically, it is running out of time. Eventually they will need to do more drilling other than the current three wells. Is it possible for them to secure an additional US $35 million given the limited remaining assets to farm down? This company is essentially a virtual investment firm as it exercises no control over its assets. To break free from its current constraints, the company will need to take decisive actions, such as securing new investments, raising more money and forming new strategic partnerships. Regrettably, Aminex lacks the autonomy to undertake any of the aforementioned actions.

Highlights of the week

" The government have said a lot of good things StockCheque; news articles, future rosy plans, etc, etc, but timelines is something they certainly are not good at! They can talk the talk but so far, they don't want to walk the walk." 1 winalot

Well phrased. Whatever happened to the claim that Ruvuma would be producing 140 mmscf/d by Oct 2023? An obvious case of delirium.

" ... higher, net foreign exchange loss due to the devaluation of the Tanzanian shilling and exchange conversions. " Q2 Orca Energy Group .. Aug 22, 2024

Aminex is not immune to this foreign exchange loss.

Re: Orca Energy Group

Orca Energy Group has a negative Enterprise Value of about USD 14 million. It is trading at less than its net cash position. Applying the same yardstick, what should Aminex be trading at? Orca has a yield of 12.9% which is an outward manifestation of inward grace. Don't expect any inward grace from Aminex anytime soon!

re: Orca's lower gas production

" The company says it is because of lower demand due to higher electricity production " 1. HighYield

Yes, the Tanzania’s Julius Nyere Hydropower Project has commenced commercial operations with a third turbine allowing output of 705 MW. Expecting to provide 2 000 MW, this Project will impact gas demand and Aminex is not immune.

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No CPR

Why not?

Currently, the primary concern about Aminex is the exhaustion of its cash reserves. The company will have no option but to resort to borrowed funds. Facing a lack of cash flow and a mounting debt burden, the financial strain is set to commence.

" Total Current Assets: US $4.6 million

Total Current Liabilities: US $8.2 million " 1. Aminex Annual Report

Could you kindly clarify what aspect of this fact is unclear to you? Even from afar, this has a dangerous and foul odor. Aminex will need to partake in considerably more drilling commitments and secure significant additional funding, a resource that is currently in short supply for the company.

No CPR

Why not?

Every event here seems forever contingent on some other connecting contingent event. The gas is even contingent. Unfortunately, nobody is willing to pay for contingent resources in Tanzania.

No CPR

Why not?

Operating in Tanzania is far from a panacea. One more delay and this flimsy house of cards could collapse.

Highlights of the week

" On August 5, 2024, this was confirmed by a letter received by PAET from the Ministry of Energy, in which the Ministry of Energy demanded that PAET propose suitable wording for an "interim arrangement" to extend the provision of PG. The letter further states that if PAET fails to do so, the other parties will seek "alternative means" to operate the Field. PAET has interpreted this letter as a clear threat that if PAET does not tolerate TPDC and the Government of Tanzania's violation of its rights, the Government of Tanzania will expropriate PAET's rights in relation to the Field" 1. Orca Energy Group

Scirocco has been decimated.

Wentworth shareholders luckily discovered an exit and managed to save themselves.

Aminex needs to find a similar exit.

PAET has decided to take a stand with a US $1.2 Billion legal action. The alleged breach in midstream is rather serious.

The large cap LNG companies will most likely step back and watch how this legal action plays out before they decide to move their business agenda forward. You can expect a further delay.

= = = = = = =

Aminex remains the operator of the Kiliwani project. Progress is stagnant and will likely remain stagnant. Under the current circumstances, it is highly unlikely that Orca Energy Group will provide assistance with the Kiliwani project. Aminex will most likely lose the operator status leaving it as a lame duck portfolio investment company.

Many more drill commitments will be required. A vast amount of money will be required.

" Total Current Assets: US $4.6 million

Total Current Liabilities: US $8.2 million " 1. AEX Annual Report

Aminex is set to exhaust its cash reserves in the fourth quarter. With limited options available to it, they will resort to using borrowed funds. The financial strain on this foreign entity, due to a lack of cash flow and an increasing debt burden, is poised to transform into a serious problem.

Highlights of the week

" Where I know more than he is that he just hasn't grasped the fact that this is a dog of a share" 1. RoJo

It's somewhat insulting to the dogs. The term 'pos' is more appropriate.

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No CPR

Why not?

Perhaps, the independent person that published the initial 'Competent Person Report' had it correct after all.

No CPR

Why not?

Why would TPDC proceed with the pipeline without the CPR?

No CPR

Why not?

Highlights of the week

" Aminex are not controlled by just 29% of the shares. " 1. RogerJolly

Aminex is facing many challenges. To break free from its current constraints, the company will need to take decisive actions, such as securing new investments, raising more money and forming new strategic partnerships. Regrettably, Aminex lacks the autonomy to undertake any of the aforementioned actions.

" Almost 50% of the market is down " StockCheque

For more than two decades, this has been nothing more than desperation and destruction of shareholder value.

" New broom through Govt wweeping away old contracts they don't like?" Edgar222

This is quite the opposite. They demanded the old, 'Protected Gas' contract to be continued not swept away. The "Protected Gas' contract terminates today. It gave them the right to buy, up to 45 MMscf/d, 'at cost' from PAET. Making a profit becomes challenging when you are compelled to give the gas away. Aminex does not possess any immunity to such similar shenanigans!

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No CPR

Why not?

Perhaps, the independent person that published the initial 'Competent Person Report' had it correct after all.

No CPR

Why not?

Why would TPDC proceed with the pipeline without the CPR?

No CPR

Why not?

Many more drill commitments will be required. Aminex is basically devoid of funds, whom do you suppose Aminex will approach for the money? Perhaps, you will be approached?

No CPR

Why not?

Aminex remains the operator of the Kiliwani project, yet progress is stagnant and will likely remain stagnant.

No CPR

Why not?

The company funds are depleting rapidly.

No CPR

Why not?

Currently, the primary concern about Aminex is the exhaustion of its cash reserves. The company will have no option but to resort to borrowed funds and borrowed time. Facing a lack of cash flow and a mounting debt burden, the financial strain is set to commence.

No CPR

Why not?

Every event seems forever contingent on some other connecting contingent event. The gas is even contingent. Unfortunately, nobody pays for contingent resources in Tanzania.

No CPR

Why not?

Ongoing testing of the 3'rd turbine at the Julius Nyerere Hydro dam is already impacting gas demand.

No CPR

Why not?

Scirocco and Wentworth have been pushed out and PAET (Orca) is being pushed out. Aminex will be next. One more tiny delay and this entire house of cards could collapse.

No CPR

Why not?

" He that lives upon hope, will die fasting" 1. Benjamin Franklin

highlights of the week

" regarding orca's negative cash flow in q1. you are correct that the cash position decreased from about 101musd to 94 musd in q1." highyield

q2 scheduled for aug 14th.

" as rojo says, keeping aminex in the fold, allows them access to the london markets. perhaps not required in the immediate term but in the long term it could be a good asset for them for further exploratory work funding in and outside of the country." 1. rogerjolly

aminex offers the framework for an exploratory funding source from the uk. $140 million and 3 wells will not suffice but what does aminex have left to farm down? the word 'dilution' will become more familiar.

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we'll soon find out how conducive the got / tpdc is towards the gas industry as a whole, including aminex. panafrican energy tanzania's 'protected gas' clause is set to expire on july 31st. paet is a subsidiary of orca. about 37 mmscf/d will significantly escalate in price from 'at cost' to the 'market price'. paet requires an agreement to be extended. there is no one else that can supply this 37 mmscf/d in two weeks. mctripe, with his posts bordering on delirium, may try to tell you ruvuma is ready to supply 37 mmscf/d in two weeks.... don't believe it.

tpdc wants aminex to progress kiliwani and nyuni. unfortunately, aminex is currently running off of fumes and can't afford a pot to **** in. paet is ideally suited for this, but paet requires a license extension. the areas of interest include the unexplored songosongowest, songosongonorth extension, kiliwani, nyuni and westsongosongo. this songosongo area is a technically superb asset and has huge upside potential. as far as getting anything done, there would have to be co-operation between aminex, paet and tpdc. there are definitely synergies here. eclipse investments may be interested in helping out. by leveraging their expertise and financial resources, eclipse investments can indeed act as a catalyst in bringing about a successful and sustainable deal. it's interesting to note that ' the tanzania petroleum development corporation' has indeed been seen as more reactive in the past. however, they are making strides towards becoming more proactive. for instance, tpdc is involved in significant projects like the $42 billion liquefied natural gas (lng) project and the east african crude oil pipeline (eacop) project. these initiatives indicate a shift towards a more proactive approach in the energy sector.

aminex plc has been facing many challenges. to break free from its current constraints, the company will need to take decisive actions, such as securing new investments, raising more money and forming new strategic partnerships. regrettably, aminex lacks the autonomy to undertake any of the aforementioned actions.

the company continues to find itself caught between a rock and a hard place. how can they extricate themselves from this subservient position?

Highlights of the week

" As maybe the longest ever LTH, unfortunately i have to rely on dips to average down" 1. email

You have to give this stock some credit here. This stock has been very accommodating this way. The company should be renamed to 'Average-Down-Opportunity Co'.

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re: CH-1

It won't make a damn bit of difference.

Nt-1 + Nt-2 + CH-1 = ~ 60 MMscf/d ... maybe

60 * 0.25 = 15 for Aminex

15 * 0.85 (TPDC ) = 12.75 MMscf/d for Aminex

Orca Energy Group's production is currently > 1 000% greater than this. Orca is suffering from a negative cash flow in Q1. Feel free to verify this. This is reality and not mctripe bs.

Issues to be concerned about.

1. LNG .. a long way off

2. Nt-1, Nt-2 ... no extended well test.

3. No pipeline

4. TPDC ... monies upfront for a back-in highly unlikely

5. Relying on borrowed funds in Q4

6. Highly unlikely to find a partner for Kiliwani.

7. Tax claims yet to be resolved

8. Unlikely to find commercial oil

9. Currency conversion issue

10. CH-1, Nt-1 pushed back

11. No rig sharing contract

12. No CPR

Co-venturers:

Scirocco ... eviscerated.

Wentworth ... no choice but to do what it did ... give up

Orca Energy Group ... without a license extension, Orca may also give up.

Aminex ... This unessential level of bureaucracy is under increasing pressure.

The major concern regarding Aminex is the possibility that the company may deplete its cash reserves in the fourth quarter. They have little choice but to tap into borrowed funds and borrowed time. With no cash flow and an ever-increasing debt load, the financial pressure on this foreign insurgent is about to begin.

Highlights of the week

re: AGM. What a major disappointment.

Where are the answers to the two questions assigned to you Tanzania?

Question #1.

"What impact will Masdar's planned 2 000MW of Power using renewable and the anticipated 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) have on production offtake?"

Question #2.

" Considering that the company lacks any form of influence or control, its independence would be rated as minimal or non-existent. Is the company working on an escape plan or is the company destined to continue as an indentured servant forever?"

" Proven gas with potentially 16.2TCF " 1. StockCheque

Proven?????? A clear misunderstanding of the word. The reality is Aminex has 0 cubic feet of proven 1P reserves.

re: 3D seismic

No updated Competent Person Report (CPR) ... uh oh ... this is very serious and totally unexpected! Why would they not proceed with this if it was such good news? You had best hope this isn't Tembo2!

re: mini LNG

You can add another 10 years. Our beloved Tanzania will be 98 years old and still hoping to break even.

= = = = = = = =

The pipeline's repeated delays could cause a huge increase in the need for more funding. This US$ and Shilling debacle is far from over. This obese company has over a staggering 5 billion shares outstanding. The previous raise was at 0.75 p. Where will the next capital raise be set at?

CH-1 and Nt-1 are both pushed back. The lack of surprise in this situation is due to the predictable nature of the events in question. As mentioned before, why would one consider drilling without a pipeline in place? From TPDC's point of view, why would you proceed with a pipeline build without a CPR in place? Also, locating a pipeline contractor who is willing to accept shillings as payment will be a major challenge. It's quite likely that there will be yet a further delay.

Prepare for the company's subsistence living, set to become a reality in the fourth quarter of this year. Survival will be a struggle for them whilst relying on borrowed funds. The financial pressure on this foreign insurgent has commenced. TPDC may end up picking up the shattered pieces.

Highlights of the week

" Thomas Mackay, Non-executive Director, exercised an option over 5,000,000 Ordinary Shares at an exercise price of 0.86 pence each and sold 3,873,959 Ordinary Shares at a price of 1.5147 pence each. "

Rather clever ... let the shareholders absorb all of the risk. No need for him to put any of his own money into this

" Multi well programme of up to 8 wells" 1. StockCheque

The company has forfeited 50% of Ntorya for a free carry on 3 wells. Not even mentioning the massive financial drain pit of Kiliwani and Nyuni, the remaining 25% interest in Ntorya is insufficient to cover even a fraction of another free carry.

"Gas pipeline being installed by TPDC" 1. StockCheque

re: It is 'being installed' ???? ..... please identify the pipeline contractor.

" Minimum 140mmscfd but looking like it will be a lot higher than that just from the first two new wells plus the existing two" 1. StockCheque

The Ntorya to Madimba pipeline will have a MAXIMUM capacity of 140 MMscf/d. Perhaps, the diameter of the steel pipeline could be enlarged with the pressure of mctripe's plentiful hot air. 

" The potential to hit oil in any of the untested traps " 1. StockCheque

Tullow Oil has halted its oil exploration activities in this region for good reason.

" Huge revenues and high profitability for a company with extremely low overheads "

Take a minute to examine the effects of insufficient foreign exchange reserves on peer economics.

" Multi bagger share price " 1. StockCheque

From 50 p to 1.90 p ... that's an inverse multi bagger ... an annual compounded rate of return of negative 16.6 % over 18 years.

= = = = = = = = =

Here are two Questions for Tanzania, or anyone else, to ask at the AGM tomorrow.

Question #1.

"What impact will Masdar's planned 2 000MW of Power using renewable and the anticipated 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) have on production offtake?"

Question #2.

" Considering that the company lacks any form of influence or control, its independence would be rated as minimal or non-existent. This company is an extra layer of bureaucracy. Is the company working on an escape plan or is the company destined to continue as an indentured servant forever?"

Highlights of the week

" Best ask the buyer that just spent £33,140 on AEX stock." 1. StockCkeque

Best ask the seller that just sold £33,140 of AEX stock. It's probably a short position. If there is going to be a capital raise, it won't be at this elevated price.

" A processing plant at Ntorya is also likely as the field develops and is something the Government would own and pay for." 2. StockCheque

Ne promettez que ce que vous pouvez tenir. It is truly astonishing how there appears to be a never-ending stream of nonsense emanating from this source.

= = = = =

History:

From 50 p to 1.65 p represents a 96% drop or an annual compounded rate of return of ~ NEGATIVE 17% over 18 years. You couldn't do any worse even if you tried.

What to look forward to by looking at their Peers.

Scirocco ... a basket case

Wentworth .... Wentworth was fortunate in that it found an escape route.

Orca Energy Group is struggling at 113.1 million cubic feet per day for the first quarter of 2024 and the foreign exchange reserve deficiency is a major contributing factor. If Orca Energy Group is struggling, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do well. Orca Energy Group is most likely busy devising a contingency escape plan similar to Wentworth's escape plan. Unfortunately, as a captive serf, devising an escape plan for Aminex is not an option.

Question for Tanzania to ask at the Annual General Meeting.

" Considering that the company lacks any form of influence or control, its independence would be rated as minimal or non-existent. Would you agree with this statement? "

Highlights of the week

" So my reading of the situation is that instead of going for 140 MMscfd, Ntorya could potentially be taken up to as much as 210 MMscfd before a Ntorya GPP is built, and anything up to 684 MMscfd after that." 1. StockCkeque

The pipeline from Ntorya to Mamimba will have a capacity of 140 MMscf/d not 210 or 684. Initially, there is a small chance for 40 MMscf/d of which 10 MMscfd would revert to Aminex. Orca Energy Group is producing 125 - 135 MMscf/d and it is struggling mostly because of the foreign exchange issue. There is the inherent risk in the ability to exchange Tanzanian shillings for hard currencies.

= = = = = =

Aminex appears to have no justification for its continued operation, representing an unnecessary layer of bureaucracy.

The question of existence has perplexed humanity for centuries. Philosophers, scientists, and thinkers have debated the reasons for our being, the purpose of life, and the origins of the universe. While some argue that existence is a result of random cosmic events, others find meaning in the complexity and evolution of life. Ultimately, the answer may lie in a combination of chance, natural laws, and the search for significance in our own lives. The bigger question is, why does this redundant and dispensable Aminex even exist?

Highlights of the week

" A placing is inevitable I think, it's just a question of when..." 1. RoJo

The company has no cash flow and an increased debt level. With the current liabilities greater than the current assets, the condition of the balance sheet is rather concerning especially so if The Tanzania Revenue Authority demands payment on the monies owed.

= = = = = = =

Measures need to be implemented to maintain the stability of the Tanzanian shilling. This stability requires sound economic prospects and conducive monetary policies. Additionally, efforts such as promoting transparency in the foreign exchange market needs work. Strong fiscal policies are still lacking. There is no obvious solution to the expected foreign exchange loss due to devaluation of the Tanzanian shilling and exchange conversions.

Why is the G&A so high when the janitor could be running this company? There is nothing TO do because there is nothing they CAN do. The company embodies an unnecessary level of bureaucracy. The apparent sole purpose of this company is to extract additional cash from those who are easily persuaded to be relieved of their money.

Highlights of the week

" Never, ever believe timelines here or in Tanzania " 1. DavidAsh

So very true. With each anticipated delay, the likelihood of an equity raise grows. They may try to entice you to participate in a new placement with some freshly minted warrants as an incentive. It won't be the first time for the warrants to make an appearance. The previous batch of warrants became worthless upon expiration.

" This stock was near 50p back in May 2006, could it ever get there again or have fundamentals changed somehow?" 1. Diagnostic

From 50 p to 1.85 p represents a 96% drop or an annual compounded rate of return of ~ NEGATIVE 17% over 18 years.

A generation of lost monies and lost opportunity.

= = = =

The recent increase in share prices facilitates a more straightforward equity raise.

Highlights of the week

" ... this recent, strong and very welcome rise in the sp is seriously at risk if we do not get the Dev License announcement and get it soon. ..... " 1. CrustyPete

Very interesting and very relevant. Surely, not another delay?

" TPDC recently put out a tender for the sale of some condensate from Mtwara, at US$587.21 per tonne. " 1. StockCheque

TPDC is issuing the tender because it OWNS the condensate from Maurel & Prom / Wentworth as it does the SongoSongo condensate.

" Are you thinking it will be another 100 years before we all get our stakes back Tanz ?" 1 RoJo

With the profit gas, after cost gas, you are looking at 30% of revenue once ramped up. If you calculate 25% for Aminex and then subtract the TPDC back-in right, which is likely to be 20%, the result is a 6% stake in this project. Expect TPDC to take their back-in rights without monies upfront.

= = = = = = = = = = =

Even with some production, do not anticipate stellar fundamentals. The expected high net foreign exchange loss due to the devaluation of the Tanzanian shilling and exchange conversions will make certain of this.

What to look forward to by looking at their Peers.

Scirocco ... a basket case

Wentworth .... " When Wentworth's cost pool had been recovered in the second half of 2023, gas revenue just matched their high admin expenses." 1. HighYield

Orca Energy Group ... Orca reported an average production of 113.1 million cubic feet per day for the first quarter of 2024. Aminex has a 25% interest in Ruvuma so Ruvuma would need to produce 452.4 MMscf/d to equate to Orca's 113.1 MMscf/d. The Ruvuma pipeline capacity is 140 MMscf. Orca Energy Group reported a negative cash flow in Q1 and the foreign exchange reserve deficiency was a major contributing factor. If Orca Energy Group is struggling, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do well. Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined to go nowhere?

Recent environmental news suggests another delay is on the horizon. An equity raise seems increasingly probable as the anticipated timeline for revenue generation has been advanced.

Another reason for a delay is the pipeline itself. Is it possible to find a contractor for the pipeline project? Issues to be concerned about could include ....

a) Disputed payment

b) Late payment

c) Payment in shillings

With each anticipated delay, the likelihood of an equity raise grows. They may try to entice you to participate in a new placement with some freshly minted warrants as an incentive. It won't be the first time for the warrants to make an appearance. The previous batch of warrants became worthless upon expiration.

Highlights of the week

"I also had some of those Warrants that were issued. Anyone else take them up I wonder ? p..s. they are now worthless by the way !" 1. Tanzania

Foreshadowing of things to come.

" Whilst I'm confident, you'd be a fool not to think there could yet be another kick in the nuts" 1. matherdj.

= = = = = = = =

What does Mr. Ambrose do all day long? He lacks influence over anything, holds no sway over anything, and has no control over anything. His only task is to focus on preparing the next financing package. The recent modest loan is inadequate, particularly if the Tanzania Revenue Authority decides to pursue the outstanding debts it is owed.

Highlights of the week

" ..... but as the Gas is believed to push any Oil further up-dip, Oil could still be trapped there instead." 1. StockCheque

Repeatedly, it must be emphasized that Ntorya is not an oil play. You need only ask Tullow Oil that drilled just North of Nt-1.

" Zambia next up then! They won't want to miss out!" 1. StockCheque

Talks have continued for years and will likely continue for many more.

" 9 new targets on top of NT1+2 and CH-1 that is." StockCheque

Nt-2 hasn't been tested. Nt-1 hasn't even been reworked. Aminex has 0 cubic feet of 1P gas reserves. Approaching two decades of lost opportunity.

3 targets cost US $140 million

9 extra targets would cost US $ 420 million

25% = US $105 million

Good luck with that. As it stands, Aminex has already fallen further into a dangerous debt trap. Possibly, an orchestrated debt trap.

"They said at the AGM last year that they have to be careful or someone would build a shed and claim the land." RogerJolly

Tanzania is a tough place to do business. Every single dollar of cost recovery will be contested, and extracting every single US dollar of revenue will be a constant struggle. Aminex has previously encountered this situation with Kiliwani. The LNG delay will only complicate matters. Attempting to extract an exorbitant profit from a country mired in poverty is both immoral and unethical.

Highlight of the decade

" Ntorya Development: io's report indicates, based on reasonable assumptions, that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year, producing into a raw-gas pipeline to the Madimba gas plant, approximately 33 km away." 1. CPR Feb 5th, 2018

So far, over six years plus behind schedule. Nt-1, Nt-2 still not ready, no CH-1 drilling, no pipeline and a band-aid loan which will not suffice especially if the Tanzania Revenue Authority elects to act. The company's finances are precarious to say the least.

With an upcoming election, playing hardball with this British foreign insurgent makes for good politics.

Highlights of the week

" ORCA - Cancelling almost all capital expenditure because their license is due to expire in 3 months and very, very little progress has been made on that. " 1. Ufufuo

This is right up there with the nonsense of 140 MMscf/d of production by Oct 2023. The license does NOT expire in 3 months. What does expire in 3 months is the obligation to supply up to 45.1 MMscf/d of the protected gas 'at cost'.

" Honestly, if ARA said they'd found little green men living at Ruvuma you'd believe it." 1. RoJo

That very same jollyboy also had a 'Buy' rating on Helium-1 at > 9p! Hopefully, he wasn't assigned a 'pass' in your remedial class Professor RoJo!

" Lump of cash coming in from the back-in - highly unlikely if you are to believe the BoD..... " " 1. CrustyPete

Correct. Do NOT anticipate receiving any upfront payment from TPDC for a back-in arrangement.

= = = = = = = =

The implications of Aminex' negative working capital are not to be taken lightly. It occurs because Aminex' current liabilities exceed its current assets, which can affect Aminex' ability to meet its short-term obligations and may impact its long-term financial health. It signals financial distress and could lead to strained relationships and limited growth opportunities or even much worse.

" Cash at bank and in hand’ last June stood at $5.036m inc. $1.023m held on behalf of partners in joint operations – so, $4.013m that could actually be used by Aminex." 1. Ufufuo ... what about TRA?

" On a positive note tax liabilities have been reduced to $8.19m" 1. wonderer. If one regards this as a positive remark, it invites contemplation on the extent of contrast with a negative one.

" As announced in 2022, the Company has sufficient funds until the end of 2024, when revenues from the Ntorya gas discovery had originally been expected" 1. Charles Santos .

Certainly, this should not have come as a surprise. Production by mid 2025 is only a 'hope'.

The inference drawn here is that Aminex possesses financial robustness. Some hold the belief that the free-carry amounting to $35 million will suffice for the entire Ruvuma project. Claims have been made that the issue of the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania doesn't apply to Aminex. Did Aminex receive Presidential immunity? If so, D.J. Trump would love to know how to acquire this Presidential immunity. The next money access-point is from you and your wallet. If this is the case, "the die has been cast" for a capital raise since the recent small loan will not be suffice.

Helium-1's value had plummeted by 70%, and any capital increase for Aminex is also likely to have a serious negative impact, especially after speculators artificially inflate the price.

O, what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive!" 1. Sir Walter Scott.

Hired gun or not, don't be deceived by the obfuscation specialist.