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" ORCA ISN’T PRODUCING AT 10 TIMES THHAT PRODUCTION rLEVEL" Ufufuo
10 * 15 = 150

" Early in Q4 2022 TPDC and Tanesco requested supply of a further 20 MMscfd to supply the Kinyerezi 1 power plant extension, bringing total field offtake close to the maximum deliverability of 150 + MMscfd. Orca was pleased to support this request and as a result is now supplying 71% total domestic gas production in Tanzania, supporting around 50% of total power generation in the country. " 1. Orca Feb 1

Obviously, Ufofuo is mistaken again. I'm rather impressed by his verbal linguistic skills but, at the same time, rather unimpressed by the attempt at obfuscation.

Why the infatuation with Orca Energy anyway? Net Present Value of 2P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $170.7 million at year end 2022 and with cash of > US $96.3 million. Why not inform the Zubairs that the majority owners would love to sell Orca Energy. The Estate wants this wrapped up. Of course, if the license extension / renewal comes through, these numbers change dramatically. There is a very strong incentive for the Gov't to negotiate a license renewal / extension prior to mid 2024 when the 'Protected Gas' clause expires. Aminex has 210 times as many shares as that of Orca Energy.

At this point in time, Ruvuma is definitely not " World Class." THERE IS NOT ONE ... that's right ... NOT EVEN ONE CUBIC FOOT OF 1P RESERVES. This is what you need when applying for a bank loan. No Bank loan could imply more dilution or more farm down or both.

Any chicken farm owner will tell you that it's not wise to count your chickens before they hatch.

" Lord, what fools these mortals be " 1. Shakespeare

What ever happened to the drilling? A delay? ... gosh, who could have guessed that?

April Fool's Day seems more likely?

Since we're on the topic of chickens ........

= = = = = = =

The chicken vs the egg. Which came first?

The pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba vs the Chikumbi-1 drilling.

Why drill if there is no pipeline? Why lay pipe if there is no drilling?

Which must come first? Who blinks first? Another delay

= = = = = =

The SCIR ' Clearance Certificate ' vs the drilling

Why issue a Clearance Certificate if there is no drilling?

Why drill if there is no Clearance Certificate?

Which comes first? Who blinks first? Another delay

= = = = = =

Positive 3D seismic news vs rig order

Why order a rig without positive 3D seismic news? Another delay

continued

4) A Rig was available, contracted for and set to drill March 2023 in preparation for Q1 2024 cash flow.

5) The Chikumbi-1 exploration well delivered beyond expectations thus a GIIP upgrade occurred.

6) NT1 and NT2 were reworked and successfully brought online.

7) The GSA is economic. TPDC and Tanesco agree to pay in $US and not Tanzanian shillings.

9) The license extension is granted with no quid pro quo.

10) There are no further issues financial, timewise or otherwise as related to the pipeline to Madimba. Production by Q1 2024 is on schedule and a sure thing.

11) The oil pipeline from Uganda will likely be built only because China wants the oil. This oil pipeline has nothing to do with Aminex. Photovoltaics will likely supply the energy needed for heating the pipeline. Perhaps, they'll lay a gas pipeline adjacent to the oil pipeline.

12) A Memorandum of Understanding is signed to supply gas to Zambia, Kenya and Uganda. There is no concern about pipeline payment because a UFO has been spotted hovering in the stratosphere above Dar es Salaam. The rumor is, it's a spy balloon loaded with millions in cash. They need only shoot it down and the hundreds of millions in cash will float to the ground to help pay for the gas pipelines. Pope CrustyPete will bless this gift falling from the heavens and Professor RoJo plans to glean some of this cash in order to purchase a Vintage Morgan 1938 Le Mans 4/4.

13) Extra cash could be brought in by selling off Nyuni thus allowing Aminex to hang on by a shoestring.

14) The 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) is delayed

15) Masdar's 2 000MW of Power using renewable sources by late 2024 is delayed

16) After positive KNDL 3D seismic news, Orca Energy has agreed to farm in and fast-track KNDL and has agreed to become the 'operator' thus allowing Aminex to decimate their G&A expense account. Cash flow is expected to arrive Q1 2025. The cash cow 'Orca Energy' has agreed to provide interim bridge financing for Aminex in order to keep it afloat.

!7) The US $140 million was enough to complete the Phase 1 task.

What a beautiful fairy tale. Perhaps, we could all pretend to be a leprechaun riding a unicorn whilst carrying a four-leaf clover. You'll certainly need to believe in fairy tales if you think this will end well for Aminex.

What happens once the free-carry of the US $35 million flotation device is deflated?

Any significant delay, fabricated or otherwise, could quickly collapse this venture similar to the collapse of a rickety old lawn chair.

= = = = = = =

Of all of the horrid, hideous notes of woe,

Sadder than owl songs, or the midnight blast,

Is that portentous phrase, " I told you so."

............................................. Lord Byron

The hope is that Ruvuma will be the company's redeeming exploration asset. Ruvuma is a totally different species than that of Mnazi Bay. It is a different reservoir, different facies and yet to be fully proven commercially. This should still be construed as an exploration asset.

Granted, there may be some production coming eventually but it won't have a material impact on Aminex. Phase 1 may result in production of 15 MMscf/d (25% of 60 MMscf/d). However, this won't command the level of jubilation everyone is expecting. Wentworth's net production is more than twice this level and it flat lined. Orca Energy, with the "Protected Gas" clause set to expire, is producing at ten times this production level and it is trading at a 30% discount to the cash per share level. Using my EPS estimate for 2022 and 6:1 P/E ratio, Orca Energy should be trading at three times the current price. At best, you can expect the same abysmal market reception for Aminex as both Wentworth and Orca Energy receive. If you're looking for a value play, Aminex does not qualify. Aminex is high risk with little to no reward.

= = = = = = =

" The positive sentiment will eventually evaporate from AEX unless we get regular positive newsflow. AEX will become the new Wentworth with about 20 trades a week." 1. Aimster

" Rampers please remember that for the last 12 or more years there have been positive posters (rampers) telling us that paradise is coming next week, and refusing to countenance anything that contradicts their belief." 1. Professor RoJo

" I know which side my money is on...... no rig available, no contract and a consequent spud / drill delay.... hide the drill delay in an RNS on seismic results and a rig contract finally being signed." 1. Pope CrustyPete

= = = = = = =

In Texas Hold'em Poker, the probability of filling an open ended straight after the flop is about one in three ~ 31.5% to be exact. Even with these odds, some folks are prepared to risk it all. These folks are known as gamblers. At times, these longshot winners do come in ... in this case, 31.5% of the time.

As per the previous calculation

" A 20% chance for things to fall into place before the cash reserves run out." Feb 01, 2023. Prosciutto.

So, let's go with that scenario where the 20% probability does actually pull through as the longshot winner. That's one chance out of five. Everything must fall into place absolutely perfectly.

The following are hypothetical scenarios in assisting the 20% longshot winner to pull through.

1) You'll need positive 3D seismic news from Ruvuma ... ie .. the 3D seismic showed up a 'World Class' reservoir ... no isolated small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas.

2) The drill selection for Chikumbi was at a prime location.

3) The Tanzania Revenue Authority quickly issued a Clearance Certificate wrt SCIR .... no capital gains charge.

4) A Rig was available, contracted for and set to drill March 2023 in preparation for Q1 2024 cash fl

Ntorya cannot be classified as " World Class" at this point in time. This is a totally different petroleum system than Mnazi Bay. Unless Chikumbi comes in big as an outlier success, the Ruvuma asset is still an Exploration asset and not a Development asset.

Why would ARA Petroleum proceed without the Sirocco 'Clearance Certificate' from the Tanzania Revenue Authority? There could be a substantial delay because of this.

There have been delays in the past.

There are delays today.

There will be delays in the future ... guaranteed!

The longer the delays, the more precarious the financial situation becomes for Aminex. This is good news for the loan-to-own shark standing nearby. What we have standing by is an asset stripper. There is more left to extort but not a hell of a lot more.

Even in the best of circumstances, things are far from rosy. If they elect to do a raise, you'll be looking at a massive dilution. If they elect to do a farm down, there won't be much left. This will evolve into either a Scirocco or at best, Wentworth. If you can extract a 30% premium to the 20-day VWAP per share, you should quickly take it..

= = = = = = =

gaslady

No self-respecting investment advisor would dare recommend this p.o.s. as a suitable investment for a pensioner. Things could go terribly wrong here and there is no time left to recoup the losses.

= = = = = = =

CrustyPete

re: Aminex' 63.8% of Kiliwani North Development License.

The 3D seismic is currently ongoing over 12.5 km^2 of KNDL. Orca Energy is picking up the tab because Aminex can't afford even a pot to **** in. Essentially, Aminex is on life support. The KNDL 3D seismic is ~ US $1.5 million gift.

So, what happens here?

1) Do they farm down to Orca Energy? Can Aminex justify retaining the " Operator Status " with only a small percentage of KNDL left over? In order to keep expenses to a minimum, Aminex may have to give up the KNDL " Operator Status". Orca Energy could arrange for development drilling to proceed mid 2024 and arrange for production in Q1 2025. There is spare processing capacity for another ~ 100 MMscf/d. Unfortunately, because of the farm down, there will also be a reduction in the income stream for Aminex. There is no pipeline issue, no gas processing plant issue and no 'Clearance Certificate' issue to contend with here. They should be able to meet the timelines. Orca Energy has decided to revisit its 2023 capital program to align with a long-term investment program which would most likely include KNDL. The flexibility for a capex revisit can be done rather easily because Orca Energy has > US $96.3 million in cash. Orca Energy might even be agreeable to provide further financial assistance in order to keep Aminex solvent. This KNDL is a good choice because it's only a stone's throw away from the gas processing plant and we know there is gas present.

2) Do they sell KNDL outright? That would leave Aminex involved with Ruvuma and Nyuni. It would

This Ruvuma asset is a lot trickier than you think. This is a totally different trapping configuration than Mnazi Bay. It will require a lot more than $140 million. For the full picture, you're probably looking at $500 million.

US $140 million ... ARA will blow through this like a hot knife through butter if things ever get started.

Once that $ 35 million 'carry' is absorbed, the bailiff will come knocking at the door.

Why the hold up with the 3D seismic?

Where is the funding for the pipeline? Someone will have to lend $35 - $45 million to TPDC ... a parastatal that just informed Wentworth that they'll be paid in TZ shillings. If ARA is asked to pay for the pipeline and it becomes part of the $140 million package, that would be disastrous for Aminex.

What we have here is a company that has sold 50% of Ruvuma and has only 25% left. Note what SCIR's 25% is worth.... peanuts. Aminex has lost control and is slowly hemorrhaging as it runs out of time. The company is in between a rock and a hard place. It is functionally on par with that of a castrated eunuch.

However, there is an avenue of opportunity that offers some hope for Aminex. Orca Energy, with US $ 96.3 million in cash, just released an Operational Update. Orca Energy supplies 71% of Tanzania's gas and 50% of Tanzania's Power is derived from Orca Energy's gas. Their field offtake is at the maximum deliverability of 150 MMscf/d. They are in discussions with TPDC and Tanesco to evaluate options in order to meet the longer-term supply requirements. These discussions would include a license renewal. Aminex' s Kiliwani could play a BIG role here. Development drilling could occur as early as mid 2024 and significant production could occur by Q1 2025. The big unknown is, can Aminex remain a 'going concern' until then? Orca Energy may be forced to provide financial assistance to Aminex in order to keep Aminex solvent.

= = = = = =

gaslady

Tanzania is old enough to be your father. You have been here for quite some time. You are an independent thinker and flexible about your opinion since you moved from 'strong buy' to 'buy' to ' no opinion'.

A question for you gaslady .... think of Tanzania as your father whilst replying,

Is Aminex an appropriate investment vehicle for an 87-year-old gentleman on a fixed income?

He just might listen to you.

Please advise!

= = = = = =

Tanzania

Are you onto PXEN? > 1 000% in 2 yrs. Check out Spain.

There are many things that still must fall into place before Aminex can start to sell gas.

1) The interpretation of the Ruvuma 3D seismic would require positive confirmation. This is not a given... this is a totally different reservoir than Mnazi Bay. The 3D seismic must prove that this area is NOT comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas... ie, reservoir producibility issues which would lead to a very high well count and low recovery per well.

2) A correct decision would have to be made as to where to drill.

3) The Tanzania Revenue Authority has yet to issue a Clearance Certificate for the sale of SCIR. Why would ARA move forward without this Clearance Certificate?

4) Is a Rig available?

5) Has the Rig been ordered?

6) Will exploration be successful? NT1 and NT2 weren't tested for any extensive period of time and that can't provide any level of comfort.

7) When will drilling occur... Nov 2022? Mar 2023? Aug 2023? Nov 2023? Mar 2024? Aug 2024?

8) Is the GSA economic?

9) What about the license extension?

10) ".... owing to TPDC facing a scarcity of US dollars, TPDC has requested that all future gas purchase invoices be settled in Tanzanian shillings by applying the exchange rate available on the date of payment." 1.Wentworth Jan 25th

11) " Wentworth will be exposed to the cost of converting Tanzanian shillings into foreign currency." 1. Wentworth Jan 25th m

12) Has financing been found for the pipeline to Madimba? Production by yearend is a pipedream. No pipeline gas is currently being sold to Zambia, Kenya or Uganda simply because there is no pipeline.

13) Problematic issues arise from those that simply object to the presence of the Brits.

14) The 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) and a further 2 000MW of Power using renewable sources by late 2024 will have an impact on near term gas offtake.

15 Orca Energy has US $96.3 million in cash and is the best chance of salvation for Kiliwani. No decision has been made yet.

16) Can all of the above be resolved / accomplished before the coffers run dry?

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If one link breaks, the entire chain breaks.

Assume a 90% positive outcome for each individual link on the above chain of events.

(0.9)^16 = 0.185

A 19% chance for things to fall into place before the cash reserves run out.

An 81% chance that things will not go well thus placing Aminex in serious financial distress whilst placing a smile on the face of the loan-to-own company nearby.

This is a speculative exploration gamble with the odds stacked against you.

You have a moral and ethical obligation to protect the weak, the naive, the gullible, the mentally handicapped, the young, the brainwashed and the elderly.

Is Aminex an appropriate investment vehicle for an 87-year-old gentleman on a fixed income?

The Ruvuma farm-out, a drop from 75% to 25%, to ARA petroleum of Oman, $5 million upfront and $35 million carry through.

The expected KNDL farm out (numbers are fictional) transfer of the operatorship, a farm-out from 68.3% to 20%, to ARA petroleum of Oman. $3 million upfront and $20 million carry through

Afterwards, they're between a rock and a hard place. They will have lost both operatorships and they'll become a lame duck. This castrated eunuch will not be able to procreate!

There have been delays in the past

There are delays at present

There will be delays in the future

The expected change in fortunes is oversold. The share price has stalled, and things aren't expected to improve soon.

" We'll be discussing drill pad relocation this time next year and hoping for a spud in Q2 2024." 1. RoJo

" .... it will take years for the corrupt political culture to change" 1. Aimster.

Fact: Wentworth monies is in search of a new home.

Maurel & Prom's offer for Wentworth has got to be worryingly cheap. The US $75 million offer was for reserves valued at US $140 million plus US $30 million in cash. This was a 30% premium to market. Mnazi Bay's guidance for 2022 was 75 ~ 85 MMscfd, with WEN at 31.94% of that. M&P has a signed agreement and had lots of growth potential. How does this reflect onto Aminex' valuation? Using this as a guide, how much would APT be willing to pay for the remaining 71% of Aminex it does not already own?

A 30% premium to current market would be a godsend gift

PRIVATE note for Tanzania

You're 87???? What the hell are you doing here?
Don't pay any attention to the verbal linguistic skills of the promoter. This stock isn't going anywhere.

At 87, you're counting backwards. You need spend monies on yourself or give it to your loved ones. You certainly shouldn't be investing in this piece of crap.
You keep giving Crusty Pete and RoJo a rough time. They are trying to calm your irrational exuberance and you should be thanking them.
If you absolutely insist on investing, why not have a look at PXEN.

Where does Orca fit into this KNDL picture? Orca is going to have to do something because the expected additional gas demand associated with the startup of Kinyerezi1 Extension by year end is expected to exceed Orca's current SongoSongo field deliverability which is at 155 MMcf/d. Orca's SS4 well, which had a similar issue to Aminex' KN-1, was successfully remediated. SS4 well may not be connected yet but if it is, you can elevate the 155 MMscfd number. The 'Protected Gas' clause is set to expire July 31, 2024. The cost of the 12.5 sq km 3D seismic program over KNDL is approximately US $1.57 million and Orca has provided this for free. This is not an onerous burden for Orca because it has ~ US $95 - $100 million in cash (my current estimate and not Q3). But why is Orca doing this? Orca requires a license extension because the current license expires on Oct 2026. The way I see it, either there is a nice cash flow for another 14 years with a license extension or there are significant cash payouts between now and Oct 2026 when the company is liquidated and dissolved. Orca must be planning on doing something to help Aminex with KNDL which is very good news for its destitute little brother Aminex.

But we digress. Where will the Wentworth monies end up?

So far, several red flags have appeared here

NT1 and NT2 were not an " extended well test"
There isn't much comfort here unless Chikumbi -1 well comes in as an outlier success.
Cash flow from the production of gas transported to the Madimba gas processing plant within a year, is a pipedream.
With further delays, Aminex could soon find itself in a financial bind.
What happened to the drill? No drill, no drilling? It could be a long wait.
It appears APT will supply enough cash to keep Aminex solvent for the time being. They'll supply enough rope for Aminex to hang itself.
With over 4 589 million shares outstanding, the leverage is minimal.
Dealing with bloodsuckers when you are cash poor, won't be easy.
" Pivoting towards a non-operating strategy." 1. May 2022 presentation. That probably includes the KNDL. How can they afford to be the operator when they can't afford a pot to **** in?
What ever happened to the low-cost remediation of KN-1?
At any time in its history, has Aminex ever posted a profit?
Aminex' future depends entirely on the goodwill of others.
FCC, TRA, PURA, TPDC, Ministerial, Minister of Energy must all be accommodated.
The 8-drill strategy planned will likely cost more than US $140 million.
What happens when the free carry of US $35 million is exhausted?
If TPDC elects to cut itself in and reduce the 25% to 20%, what's left after yet another farm out?
They like playing the LONG game which causes the delay after delay after delay
Considering the history, is this Brit's presence even appreciated here?
The condition of the balance sheet is precarious to say the least.

A 30% premium to current market for the remaining 71% would be a godsend gift.

Thanks CrustyPete .. your pragmatic comments are appreciated although sprinkled with too much optimism.

Whatever happened to Mick2020 .. the man that literally begged everyone to get out at 4p saying this isn't worth 0.5p?

At 7p, whatever happened to the historical con artist promoter by the name of TipTop. It is my understanding he won an Olympic Gold medal... in the sport of projectile vomiting of verbal diarrhea.

The time is fast approaching when the 3D seismic over the Kiliwani North Development License (KNDL) is completed and interpretations and decisions will have to be made.

There is a good probability that APT will encourage Orca to take on the task as the operator of KNDL. Aminex, with its eviscerated skeletal balance sheet, is in no position to do any kind of heavy lifting. APT would be more than happy to witness Orca as the operator. At least, something will get done.

The Kiliwani North Development License isn't that big of a deal anyways. Orca could easily drill a couple of wells and increase production by 40 MMscfd. Orca is capable of doing the heavy lifting. If it so desires, APT has the option of acquiring Orca / PAEM afterwards because Orca is available as a takeout candidate. The majority owner and CEO of Orca, WD Lyons, has passed away and the company is simply coasting along in a traumatized state. The Estate, with 72% ownership control over Orca, would love nothing more than to get Orca's business affairs wrapped up and settled away. Orca's current production is in the range of 150 - 155 MMscfd (including the protected gas) and has US $95 - $100 million in cash, EV/EBITDA <1 and yet the markets show little interest. With no institutional investors, it is hard to get any traction. The Orca stock, with an 8.4% yield, is trading below cash/share.

So, yes, there is an opportunity for APT to have Orca do some of the heavy lifting on APT's behalf whilst Aminex would have a tough time carrying its own lunch pail.

Let's not discuss Aminex fundamentals because that would be a total waste of time other than to say they are absolutely atrocious. Looking at the balance sheet elicits a visceral sensation of repulsion. Without continued external financial support, they are in trouble. Any further cash flow delays and they'll be following Scirocco's path.

Let's instead, concentrate on what will happen to the newly freed up Wentworth monies. This fresh new Wentworth monies has to flow somewhere. Will it flow into Aminex?

Crusty Pete, you have this rated as a 'BUY'. This appears to be irrational exuberance. Perhaps, your name tag should read 'Exuberant Pete' and not 'Crusty Pete'.

There are also other individuals such as 'gaslady' that have this rated as a 'strong buy'.

... eyes wide open !

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