Member Info for prosciutto

Re: Question for AGM

" Happy to do that for you Tanz and anyone else that feels able entrust that task to me." 1. CrustyPete

Ok. Thanks

Question " Kind Sir, what is the plan for rectifying the negative working capital?"

Highlights of the past

"Gas flowing in April 2025 " StockCheque July 2024

" First Gas still expected October .... " 1. RogerJolly June 2023

The patrons miss your "silly list" Jollyboy. It provided comic relief. Time to repost your "silly list" so you can convince yourself of what’s to come this year.

" .... the long anticipated drilling of CH1 and early production system implementation for significant revenues to come on stream, potentially by the end of 2020" 1. Ufufuo Nov 11, 2019

" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR

"This whole situation is a result of a calculated plan to get control of the asset without giving shareholders any benefit. The government, tpdc and ara are in cahoots with each other to get aminex to run out of money so they can take over with little or no cost to themselves." 1. mj152 April 2024

Don't discount this eventuality given that Scirocco was eviscerated, Wentworth was forced to abandon ship, and Orca Energy Group is being stiffed. It appears Aminex is next in line.

= = = = = =

Beware the plethora of rampers ..... rely on your own due diligence. Keep in mind that the orange plonker has cut back foreign aid.

" Diseases desperate grown

By desperate appliance are relieved,

Or not at all " 1. Shakespeare, Hamlet

Highlights of the week

" Did you know Africa’s gas demand will more than double in the next 25 years ... " RogerJolly

That's roughly 3% compounded annually. Our esteemed Tanz will be 115 years old and likely still man handling RoJo. Tanz ... do you suppose the share price will double in this 25-year period?

" Nothing feckin' changes here does it - similarly bloody painful as it has ever been." 1. CrustyPete

Yes, it is starting to sink in.

" The key thing I find so frustrating is that you just can't rely on what we are told." 1. NorthernMagic.

Yes, it has already sunk in.

= = = = = =

The rose-tinted spectacle brigade promoted 140 MMscf/d by April, 2025. Well, where is it? Lots of bullish words but so little action. Confidence is starting to wear thin. With the orange man cutting off significant foreign aid, it is important to consider if there will be an impact here.

Delays, deliberate or otherwise, as evidenced by ....

" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR. NT-3/CH-1 was scheduled to be drilled in 2018.

Where on earth is the new Competent Person Report? What is the nature of their fear? The absence of an updated CPR raises questions about the purported vast potential of Ruvuma.

"Men shut their doors against a setting sun" 1. Shakespeare.

Highlights of the week

" it just goes to show, yet further, what a bargain ARA got $5 m in cash and $35m of credit for 8TCF....Water under the bridge now but the fact remains, we was "done"! 1. CrustyPete

Not "done" yet but getting closer. There is still a 25% slice left to wipe out.

Take a look at what was done to Scirocco. Take a look at what Wentworth was forced to do. Take a look at what they're currently doing to Orca Energy Group ... deliberate delays. One more "delay", deliberate or otherwise, and you'll be able to look at what will be done to the remaining 25% slice. $40 million for 50% implies $20 million for 25% ... $20 million = US $ 0.005 / sh. Another delay and Aminex MIGHT be able to salvage half of a red cent. A placement would be an alternative route.

" Jollyboy has been posting nothing but ludicrous gibberish ever since he started posting." 1. RoJo

The rose-tinted spectacle brigade would have you believe 140 MMscf/d by April, 2025 Is it still possible?

= = = = = = = = =

With 25% of 17 MMscf/d from NT-2, calculate the EPS. Do the math and let the reality sink in.

The fact is, Aminex is facing many challenges. To break free from its current constraints, the company will need to take decisive actions, such as securing new investments, raising more money and forming new strategic partnerships. Regrettably, Aminex lacks the autonomy to undertake any of the aforementioned actions.

" Let us not underrate the value of a fact; it will one day flower into a truth." Henry David Thorough, Excursions

Highlights of the week

" What about a Farm Out ?" 1. Tanzania

Farming out 50% of 25% doesn't leave much. This path choice is even more treacherous than a placement.

" M&P have reported they're planning a 3 well drill in Mnazi Bay, at a cost of $20MM, starting at the end of 2025. If we're sharing a rig, I hope we intend to go first!" 1. Vike1

Uh oh, another delay! Aminex will definitely not be going first.

= = = = = = = =

With 25% of 17 MMscf/d from NT-2, calculate the EPS. Do the math and let the reality sink in.

What on earth has happened to all the Group 1 lunatic rampers? The share price needs to be pushed up further to enable the shorts to position themselves prior to a placement announcement. After the placement announcement, they'll be able to cover their short position at a MUCH lower price.

" Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows" 1. Shakespeare, The Tempest

Highlights of the week

"So the longer TPDC take to back in, the bigger the lump sum they need to find in their budget to pay ARA and AEX back their (TPDC's) share of the costs. " 1. StockCheque

Most likely, Aminex will not receive any payment from TPDC.

For roughly two decades:

" To date, TPDC has neither elected to back in within the prescribed notice period nor contributed any costs associated with backing in. " 1. Orca Energy Group

Let the reality sink in.

" Aminex also has almost $73m in tax losses .. " 1. StockCheque

Aminex has been in the top percentile as a perpetual loser. This has a negative 8.8% compounded return on investment for over the past 15 years. Let the reality sink in.

" Makes a total mockery of the $2m CGT that AEX had to pay when they Farmed-Out to ARA.... the $5 + $35 carry AEX received in payment simply repaid all the money that we shareholders had forked out developing Ntorya over the years." 1. CrustyPete

Let the reality sink in.

= = = = = = =

Where are the enthusiastic supporters for the April production?

Let the reality sink in.

With 25% of 17 MMscf/d from NT-2, calculate the EPS. Do the math and let the dismal reality sink in. 

The stock price needs to rise slightly further to enable the short sellers to position themselves ahead of an expected placement. This financially emaciated frame is badly in need of sustenance.

Let the reality sink in.

" If anything can go wrong, it will" 1. Edward A. Murphy.

Let the reality sink in.

Highlights of the week

" I can see production going up to more like 250-300mmscfd. " StockCheque

Through a pipeline with a max capacity of 140? This is one of many examples of projectile vomiting of verbal diarrhea you're being exposed to. Let the reality sink in.

= = = = = = = =

Reality Check:

With the currently obese number of shares outstanding, what is the projected 'Earnings per Share' (EPS) with 35 MMscf/d of production? Let the reality sink in.

The negative working cap issue hasn't gone away. It is eating away at the structure and only getting worse every day. Let the reality sink in.

With a placement, you can easily add another Billion shares. First, push the price up so the shorts can position themselves. Let the reality sink in.

" There's small choice in rotten apples" 1. Shakespeare ... Taming of the Shrew.

Let the reality sink in.

Highlights of the week

" ... will quickly become huge Gas production of at least 140mmscfd, ... " StockCheque

Really? Quickly? What is the definition of 'quickly'?

Nothing here happens quickly. Aminex has a (negative) -8.8% compounded return for over 15 years.

" I can see production going up to more like 250-300mmscfd. " StockCheque

Really? 250 - 300 MMscf/d? That would certainly be a tough challenge because the pipeline capacity to Madimba is 140 MMscf/d. What's the plan for enhancing the diameter of the steel pipeline?

" Big money for AEX at 140, huge money upside potential from there." StockCheque

Really? Big money? ( 25% of 140 = 35 ) Prove it that there will be Big money for Aminex @ 35 MMscf/d. Orca Energy Group is struggling @ 75.9 MMscf/d. EPS @ 35 MMscf/d =~ US $ 0.0013

" And there's still plenty of potential for a commercial Oil discovery " StockCheque

Really? Plenty?

= = = = =

As forewarned and as expected, the start of the pipeline is way overdue. Once fully commissioned, the 2 215 MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project could very well be a catalyst for yet a further delay to the pipeline.

As time progresses and lacking cashflow, the financial stability of Aminex is becoming increasingly precarious. What impact would a placement have on the stock price?

"All hope abandon, ye who enter here!" 1. Dante, Inferno

Highlights of the week

"LNG on the way" 1. Alcapone1

What has this to do with Aminex? It will take several years to build out the infrastructure and the gas will almost certainly be sourced from the deep offshore and delivered onshore via a FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) vessel courtesy of Shell/Equinor.

Unless you're expecting Aminex to perform a reverse takeover of Shell, this LNG has no connection to Aminex. 

" ... a market cap of £160 million in 2010 to £$40 now " 1. CrustyPete

Thank you for helping to verify this as an accurate historical snapshot. This works out to negative -8.8% compounded for over 15 years... not exactly a return to be euphoric about.

" Try a $35 million free carry on operating costs and a $3 million funding facility for company running costs." Sambo12

It would be advisable to examine the extent of the negative working capital.

The additional $3 million doesn't even cover the current negative working cap and the free carry is referenced to future costs. They continue to face a financial predicament.

" try the maths on 60 MMScf/d " 1. Sambo12

Gas production will certainly not commence by this April. NT-2 won't make a big difference. Including the deferred shares, NT-2 @ 17 MMscf/d would result in EPS to AEX of ~ US $0.00063. 60 MMscf/d would result in EPS to AEX of ~ US $0.0022. Not exactly stellar numbers.

Orca Energy Group which operates SongoSongo near Kiliwani, had production of over 75.9 MMscf/d. The Ruvuma equivalent in production to this 75.9 MMscf/d would be 303.6 MMscf/d. ( 25% of 303.6 = 75.9) The pipeline capacity to Madimba will be 140 MMscf/d and a second pipeline to Madimba could take a decade. Even with 75.9 MMscf/d, Orca Energy Group is struggling.

= = = = = = = =

What impact do you anticipate a placement would have on the stock price?

Highlights of the week

0.9 not 9.0 ..

Sorry gaslady, my apologies. Will wear my reading glasses next time.

" .... can I please remind you that the SP was more than 40p in 2006 and 11p in 2010." RoJo

40 p to 1.17 p

= negative -17.8% compounded over 18 years

Math leads us to the truth.

You can't find out the truth without doing the math

Your assignment is to do the math for EPS with Nt-2 producing 17 MMscf/d sometime this decade. Be prepared to be depressed.

Anyone dare to classify this as a real winner?

" It's a dog, but it can't even be taken for a walk. Is there any point to it?" RoJo

Correct.

= = = = = = = = = =

How can Aminex rectify the negative working cap?

Highlights of the week

" Jan 30, 2025. 1.20, Jan 29, 2025 1.15, Jan 28, 2025 1.10" 1.gaslady

Sept 18, 2014 9.0 p. Listed by same as a "strong buy" at 9.0 p.

From 9.0 p to 1.2 p is a negative ~18% compounded over 10.25 years.

You'd be very hard pressed to find a stock with a worse performance.

" It just seems to be less hassle to just tuck this under their wing and be answerable to no one other than themselves" 1. BritishPeculeum

ARA need only to stall, and this could become another Scirocco.

"to take AEX out in its entirety even at 2p would be nothing more than chump change in any case." 1. BritishPeculeum

Correct!

" Gas demand UP despite Julius Neyere hydro" 1. Ufufuo

Check out what is happening at the Songas gas plant. The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project is already having an impact. The 2 115 MW Project, once fully commissioned, will have a further impact. Now add the impact of Masdar's planned 2 000 MW of Power using renewable.

" Gas doesn't need it to rain in order to provide power or heat. It doesn't rain 365 days a year in Tanzania, far from it." 1. StockCheque

It doesn't rain 365 days a year anywhere. Have a closer look at the massive Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project!

" Gas can be exported to nearby countries or internationally." 1. StockCheque

They have been brewing this idea for the past decade, and they will continue to deliberate on it for the next decade. The deepwater offshore gas will be exported internationally as LNG.

" Gas Power Stations are still being expanded or built. For a start there's a huge one in Mtwara that needs Gas." 1. StockCheque

Without a pipeline, all of the AEX gas is stranded but M&P's gas is not.

" his (RoJo) cynicism and negativity has been seen to be more appropriate than the overly optimistic hyperbole of the rose tinted spectacle brigade, whose unmitigated positivity has far more often than not been proven totally misplaced. " 1. CrustyPete

The forecast is positive that there won't be 140 MMscf/d of gas production by April.

= = = = = = = =

Google search "2025 Africa Energy Summit" Jan 27th, 28th. Scroll down and click on 'Tanzania'.

There are no monies allotted for any pipeline other than two short pipelines hooking up households in two villages.

" The project involves construction of about 44.4 km (22.9 km in Mnazi Mmoja-Lindi, and 21.5 km in Mkuranga Pwani) natural gas distribution network ...... "

Almost all of the monies are for Hydro, solar, high voltage transmission lines, geothermal, transformers, biogas, LPG, etc.

You are invited to find evidence that monies for the pipeline to transport the gas from Ntorya to Madimba does exist.

One can draw attention away from the negative working capital for only so long. If this cash flow is delayed much longer, there could be a "going concern" clause or a "default of the financial covenants" clause making an appearance.

jmho

Highlights of the week

"I am now starting to wonder if Tanzania just doesn't have the money?" NorthernMagic

This may very well be the case now that the Donald Trump is trying to freeze or downsize foreign aid.

" Clearly, the coming on stream of the Julius Nyerere Dam must affect gas demand calculations .... " 1. LeaGreen

It already has.

= = = = = =

Gas production certainly won't be by this April. NT-2 won't make a big difference. Including the deferred shares, NT-2 @ 17 MMscf/d would result in EPS of ~ US $0.00063. Not exactly stellar numbers.

One can draw attention away from the negative working capital for only so long. If this cash flow is delayed much longer, there could be a "going concern" clause or a "default of the financial covenants" clause making an appearance.

" We are the hollow men

We are the stuffed men

Leaning together

Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!" 1. T.S. Eliot

Being financially distressed, a placement is becoming increasingly a reality.

jmho

Highlights of the week

" I don't think we have an office..." 1. RoJo

Why is there a full management team when there is so little to manage?

" But there will always be the rainbow chasers that think that, one day, one of those drills will find Oil!! Yes they might but not in commercial quantities - not anytime soon at least." 1. CrustyPete

You need only ask Tullow why they abandoned this area. Tullow was disappointed with the oil-prospective Likonde-1 well which is just a few km North of NT-1.... they left ... no commercial oil here.

" I see the auditors have resigned..." RoJo

Aminex Petroleum Services, a subsidiary company, .... uh oh! ... are there any financial shenanigans shareholders should be made aware of? A significant accrued loss is the only badge of honor they have to show for their years of effort.

= = = = = = =

Is the expectation of massive production by April still on the list? Not a snowball's chance in hell.

Twenty-two years of destruction of capital, hopelessness, desperation and accumulated opportunity costs. Instead, imagine having these monies invested in Amazon, Nvidia or Apple twenty-two years ago.

They can draw attention away from the negative working capital for only so long. If this cash flow is delayed much longer, there could be a 'going concern' clause or a 'default of the financial covenants' clause making an appearance.

aimho

Highlights of the week

" God Bless to the likes of Crusty Pete ! The voice of sanity." 1. Tanzania

" .... Aminex has been a disappointment and failure. Particularly when considering the opportunity cost of having such sums tied up in this for so long....." 1. Crusty Pete ... The voice of sanity!

" , I am sorry to say that when Rojo says that until we get some action on the Pipeline and NT2 this share is going nowhere, it is very difficult to disagree.... indeed if that news doesn't arrive soon the sp could slip further." 1. Crusty Pete ... The voice of sanity!

" Conclusion of LNG talks imminent " 1. StockCheque

What has this to do with Aminex??? It will take several years to build out the infrastructure and the gas will almost certainly be sourced from the deep offshore and delivered onshore via a FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) vessel courtesy of Shell/Equinor.

" Are you completely thick or just pretending to be deaf?" 1. RogerJolly to StockCheque aka McTripe. 

And this of course is why he's called McTripe. Misleading informant est McTripe.

= = = = = = = = =

Where are the proponents for the April production? Is reality starting to sink in?

Why are the general and administrative expenses so high when this management team has so little to do?

The fundamentals are becoming rather worrisome. Is a placement imminent?

aimho

Highlights

" owning a 'decent few million shares' some originally and admittedly at 24p ish" 1. Tanzania

Obviously, this has been no more than a dismal failure. A generation has passed and nothing but losses to show for it. Some continue to deceive people by claiming they will be producing significant amounts gas by April. There is no chance of that happening, no chance at all.

= = = = = = = = =

Issues to be concerned about.

1. LNG .. a long, long way off. 

2. Nt-1, Nt-2 ... no extended well test.

3. No pipeline to Madimba.

4. TPDC ... monies upfront for a back-in highly unlikely

5. Hopelessly reliant on the goodwill of others.  It has no independence. 

6. Highly unlikely to find a partner for Kiliwani.

7. Tax claims yet to be resolved

8. Highly unlikely to find commercial oil

9. $US Currency issue

10. CH-1, Nt-1 pushed back

11. No rig on site. 

12. No CPR.

13. Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project diminishing the need for gas.

14. No say over anything.

15. No sway over anything.

16. No cash flow.

17. Negative Working Capital and becoming more negative every day.

18. Being financially distressed, it will be difficult to avoid dilution.

Due to the holidays, reality is a day early

Highlights

" Is there any evidence out there of this pipeline having been built or at least started to be built? I can't find anything" 1 hereandnow

= = = = = = =

News Release

" Commitment from the Government of Tanzania to complete the construction of the Ntorya to Madimba pipeline within six months." Mid-Year Report

Time is running out.

With a massive amount of newly connected Power coming online from The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, the gas pipeline may be delayed until the demand for Power catches up to the new Power supply now available. There could be a significant delay.

Can Aminex withstand another delay?

Due to the holidays, reality is a day early

Highlights

" RoJo wants our Investment to Fail. He simply must NOT succeed !" 1. Tanzania

"Put a sock in it Tanz, you silly old sausage." 1. RoJo

= = = = = = = = =

Congratulations

Aminex has the honor of being a poor performing stock.

The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project has commenced commercial operations, with progressive commissioning of 5 turbines allowing peak output of over 700 MW. Once this reaches 2 115 MW, there should be surplus Power. Now add the impact of Masdar's planned 2 000 MW of Power using renewable. With surplus Power, advancing a pipeline could become a contentious issue up for debate.

Still no CPR

Why not?

Every event here seems forever contingent on some other connecting contingent event. The gas is even contingent. Unfortunately, nobody is willing to pay for contingent resources in Tanzania.

Highlights

" we are in best place to benefit when Ruvuma is exploited !" 1. Tanzania

The only parties being exploited here are the shareholders. Down ~ 40% in three months.

" We've had about 20 years of missed deadlines " 1. RoJo

Two decades of lost opportunity.

" I see no reason why it could not exceed the Offshore TCF" 1. StockCheque

More gibberish. There is > 47 Tcf of offshore gas.

= = = = =

After Nt-1, Nt-2 and CH-1, phase two of drilling will commence. That will most likely be another $140 million of which 25% is USD 35 million. It may seem challenging to understand how Aminex, which is struggling financially, could afford such an expense without a placement and significant dilution.

Highlights of the week

" Crusty - I don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of production next April." 1. RoJo

Well said.

" .... have signed a finance facility of $3M to take when they choose that is taken from their carry... " 1. winalot

The $3M doesn't cover the Current Liabilities minus the Current Assets. ' Financially distressed' is the operative phrase applicable here.

" Further to this negotiations on existing and future contracts and roles are always ongoing in partnerships and they only become public once they become contracts. " 1. email

This implies that Aminex would be able to afford to finance their share of the partnership costs and good luck with that because Aminex has a massive negative Working Capital. Their current financial status is, at the very best, precarious.

= = = = = =

Some here have an expectation of massive production by April 2025. You've heard this before.

" Ntorya DevelopmentNtorya Development: io's report indicates, based on reasonable assumptions, that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year, producing into a raw-gas pipeline to the Madimba gas plant, approximately 33 km away" CPR Feb 5, 2018

2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ..... ????????

Highlights of the week

" The field contains 1.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas proven by two wells. " 1. gaslady

Dear Ma'am: Beg Professor RoJo to allow you to sign up for his remedial class.

Caught in the illusion of hope against reality.

" proven " ??? The reality is, 1P reserves = 0.0 cubic feet

= = = = = = =

Some here have an expectation of massive production by April 2025. You've heard this before.

" .... the long anticipated drilling of CH1 and early production system implementation for significant revenues to come on stream, potentially by the end of 2020" 1. Ufufuo Nov 11, 2019

If the April 2025 date is delayed, it is very likely that additional funding will be necessary.

" Pipeline and gas receipts by April 2025? Keep on dreaming boys and girls." RoJo

#1

The current state of affairs is pointing towards the need for a placement.

#2

A placement can lead to massive dilution.

#3

Significant dilution can result in considerable depreciation of the stock price.