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Drama queens!
Yes I prefer them in 3's myself.
Pickled HamToday 13:40
This one you mean?
First Gas still expected October and according to last weeks RNS the GSA and the FFD contracts are imminent.
The following expected during the interim
Pad Location decision - TICK ONE
AGM very close
NT2 flow test results
Scirrocco deal complete
3D results
Gas sales agreement
FFD sign off
25 year development licence
Ch1 pad construction
Rig contracted Spud date
Drilling of 3rd appraisal well
NT1 well workover
Pipeline completion
First Gas Production from NT2
All fully funded and all due this year!
Future:
Farm Out of Nyuni License.
Newly Added with an unknown timeline
The government shows confidence in asking Aminex to Farm out rather than relinquish the Nyuni area as planned. Meanwhile neighbouring Orca continue with 3D seismic over Aminex prospect with their results due later this year helping to define Aminex position further on the license. Speculating that would put Orca in prime position for a farm in, but if significant finds are made, it may tempt ARA to come in on that license as well as Ruvuma.
Never mind the waffle, all the above is from official sources."
None of it wring until officially proven otherwise. See you next week
Now look !
Two silly lists one after another...
A strange phenomenon happens weekly. A long silly list appears shortly after this post appears. There is no utility in exposing this silly list to the world like a Moroccan fair menu. The conquistador is working hard on the obfuscation efforts.
Continue to work on developing your very own ember of independence. Think things through on your own. Wolf cubs are born both blind and deaf and wouldn't be able to hear or see what's coming down the track, but you do have that capability to look for yourself. Work on developing that ember of independence. There is a limit to how much you should tolerate from this capricious, melodramatic drama queen.
" friend RoJo. ..... And don't you dare say it isn't mostly down to you ." 1. Tanzania
RoJo has no influence on the share price .. none whatsoever .... it is all about fundamentals. Fill in the blanks.
Earnings per share _____Cash Flow per share ____
Working Capital ____ Yield ____
ie.... look at the balance sheet and you'll quickly notice something is seriously wrong.
The following is supplied from the official source.
1. " Reducing our operating expenses and overhead significantly to protect the Company while the project is still not generating cash." 1. Aminex
2. USD (000) " Total Current Assets 7 127 ........ Total Current Liabilities 9 917 " 2. Aminex.
The Company will need to raise money because the Tax Authorities must be paid. There is no choice here. There is dilution up ahead. This already massively obese structure is about to become even more grotesquely obese. Year after year after year, how much further dilution are you prepared to accept? You have to put a stop to the self-flagellation and convince the company to take the Wentworth 'exit' route if it is available.
The vociferous spewing of fake hope for over a decade now tends to generate a neurosis from which you need to protect yourself. That's not a scintilla of lavender you are smelling.
Orca Energy Group's Q1 report has been released. The Songo Songo / KNDL seismic project timeline continues to extend. Orca Energy Group with an 8% yield, is trading at well below their cash level. If events are deemed dire for Orca Energy Group, then they would be deadly for Aminex.
Production by October is nothing more than a pipedream. The subterfuge here never ends.
At the Annual Meeting, it will be interesting to hear how management plans to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. The challenges are formidable to say the least.
I forgot it was Wednesday. Short and sweet this week, must be running out of things to say.
Accounting 101
USD ( 000 )
Total Current Assets 7 127
Total Current Liabilities 9 917
Uh oh
This requires money just to remain a 'going concern'.
Are you prepared to throw good money after bad?
Keep a close eye on the Tanzanian Tax Assessments. These folks will want their money and Aminex simply can't pay the amount they owe. What you have to be concerned about is what the Tax Department is prepared to do to ensure payment. The Tax folks tend play hard ball. You had best hope they don't seize the company for non-payment.
Wentworth received a 30% premium to market when they elected to be bought out. Wentworth had significant production, significant cash flow and significant exploration acreage ... much better shape than Aminex. With no GSA, this 30% premium for Aminex would be a godsend gift and a very lucrative option if they can get it. Any further delays and that 30% premium could quickly become a 30% or more discount.
Page 1 of 2
" Loss for the year of US$4.06 million" 1. AEX
The company's financial position is one of benign neglect year after year after year. A never-ending stream of losses. At last, there is something positive to say about Aminex .. it is consistent.
" Reducing our operating expenses and overhead significantly to protect the Company while the project is still not generating cash." 1. AEX
This represents the exact summary of their financial predicament .... written in plain black and white for all to read .... .. Danger! Danger! What more do you need? The company itself is saying the exact same thing you are being warned about. Remember, there is no money coming in. Those running costs do not stop. One more major delay and this entire house of cards comes crashing down.
" there is a big risk, that the company will need additional funding during the year, as working capital is negative." 1. High Yield
Orca Energy
Earnings Per Share .. . . .USD $1.39
Cash Flow /sh . . USD $ 3.40
Working Cap.... USD $61.5 million
Tanzania ... some answers needed from you. We trust you to fill in the correct answers.
Aminex ..... fill in the blanks. ... if you need help, ask Professor RoJo to help you. Hint ... all negative #s.
EPS . . . . . . .. . . _______
Cash Flow /sh . . _______
Working Cap.... _______
Tanzania, don't get taken in with all of the positive blather you are being exposed to. Try to comprehend how serious it is when you have a company with a negative Working Capital.... you are in 'deep' for needing more money.
The targets are still there. The schedules are still there. The expectations are still there. The Tax Department is still there. All of the risks are still there firmly placed on the shoulders of Aminex shareholders. Be especially wary of the Tanzanian Tax Assessments. With no payment forthcoming, they can get VERY nasty, VERY quickly.. see Note 25 of the Annual Report.
" Like I've said Jolly, that's a very long list !
The chances of undertaking and completing all items this year is, IMHO, ZERO. " 1. RoJo
Supposedly, Ruvuma production by October is in the cards. That's nothing more than a pipedream.
Page 2 of 2
re: Kiliwami North Development License KNDL
" We anticipate that the acquisition of data will be completed by Q3 2023 and fast track data processing will be completed by Q4 2023" 1. Orca Energy (USD 96.3 million in cash)
This KNDL does have some potential. The KNDL 3D seismic interpretation should be highly prospective and should light up the screen. The main problem is these offshore development wells are very expensive. Orca Energy would be more interested in the Southern portion of this adjacent to the Nyuni Area PSA.
Keep in mind that Aminex is essentially broke, and it will have to make a decision as to how to finance expensive KNDL offshore development drilling in 2024.
1) Do they do an equity raise? .... doubt it.... who is going to be foolish enough to partake? You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. This is already grotesquely obese.
2) Farm out? ... most likely ...yes .. including 'control'.
Aminex, with little influence over anything, will eventually have to follow Wentworth's exit route. Their business model has become pointless. Hopefully, that same exit path that Wentworth took doesn't disappear for them. Aminex doesn't have a useful purpose anymore. It would be a simple task for APT to purchase the remaining 70% of Aminex that it does not already own. It is a silly idea to invest in a "Portfolio Investment Company" when APT themselves are an Investment Company! Any minimum low-ball offer should do it.
" Or maybe it would now make more sense for them to simply buy the other 70% and own the all AEX assets outright?" 1. CrustyPete
Exactly the point being made here for months now.... Crusty Pete is finally coming around. One major point is missing though ... the 70% can be had for dirt cheap if an orchestrated delay is deliberately thrown into the timeline. Aminex has no accommodation built in for any delay whatsoever.
The Aminex business plan is an anachronism that no longer serves any useful purpose. Once Aminex is moved out of the picture, APT and Orca Energy can work together whilst no longer being hindered by Aminex.
At the Annual Meeting, it will be interesting to hear how management plans to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. The challenges are formidable. This may actually be accomplished with assistance from the deepfake community.
Prosciutto: "As a result, any positive developments won't have much of an impact on Aminex."
Are you new to investing?
The number of shares in issues does not impact how a share will respond to news. What will have an impact is the market cap in relation to the significance of the news.
Some investors are put off by penny stocks, but that's a completely different issue.
Shorting can damage your wealth. Beware !
Why a repetitive and diminishing content I wonder ? Proscuitto says they could move Aminex to one side, but forgets there is legal obligation to drill Chikumbi 1 well, come what may.
The paragraph below is a repeat from last week because many fail to grasp the gravity of situation.
" The number of shares outstanding places this in the 'grotesquely obese' category. ~ 20 000% times as many shares outstanding as that of Orca Energy. Sir Isaac Newton's 2'nd Law of Motion will tell you exactly how difficult it is to initiate any major movement with such a massively large body of dead weight."
As a result, any positive developments won't have much of an impact on Aminex. The impact of the supposed production on the earnings will be negligible.... see previous weeks calculations.
Whatever happened to the March 3D seismic reveal? If this 3D seismic interpretation does not materialize a drill-worthy well option, they may as well pack up and leave. Production by October is a pipedream.
There are some that would have you believe that Aminex is the panacea to all of East Africa's ills. At best, the company is destined to live a life of quiet desperation.
= = = = = =
re: Kiliwani North Development License. KNDL
"The Company will pursue farm-in partners to fund and operate the asset once our assessment of the 3D survey is complete. Notwithstanding the delays caused by late payment for gas, the outstanding commercial terms to be agreed upon, and the move to a non-operator strategy, the Kiliwani North and Kiliwani South assets remain fully impaired." 1. AEX
The entire company could become fully impaired. Without the operator status, it essentially becomes a 'clone' of Wentworth except Wentworth had significant production, cash and cash flow.
"M&P’s working interest gas production (48.06%) on the Mnazi Bay permit in Tanzania was 46.7 mmcfd (gross production: 97.3 mmcfd) for Q1 2023, an increase of 9% compared to Q4 2022." 1. Wentworth
Wentworth knew their best avenue to take was to submit. Taking this exit strategy may also be the best option for Aminex. The problem is, there may not be an exit ramp available. The business model just doesn't work anymore. To continue struggling along for eons is pointless.
Zubair Corp's hand could be forced to play hard ball earlier than anticipated. With two parties interested in the two separate parts, this company could become a prime candidate to be partitioned up. Let's face reality here, things would work a lot smoother and a lot faster if Aminex was moved aside This redundant business model makes one wonder what their raison d'etre is.
Are you Okay?
Can you withstand any major financial setback?
Yes .. protect yourself.
Are you Okay?
Here we are waiting for the Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation to uncover a massive 'World Class' reservoir. This area is most likely comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps/pockets of gas. There are going to be a lot of disappointed shareholders. There may be an initial flush of excitement, but it likely won't be sustainable.
Corrections need to be made.
Fact
1. Over the past decade or more, this has been a terrible performing 'Oil & Gas' stocks. The market has spoken.
2. KNDL development presents a serious conundrum for the company. They cannot afford to develop it and by the same token, they cannot afford NOT to develop it. The question is, how much are they going to lose?
3. There is not ONE single cubic foot of 1P gas reserves. The Banker plus the institutional investor requires 1P reserves.
4. Aminex is not in control of its own destiny. It depends entirely on the agenda of others. If the pace of the agenda slows down or stalls, Aminex will hit a brick wall.
" ...... a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year," 1. Competent Person Report Feb 5th, 2018.
5. The number of shares outstanding places this in the 'grotesquely obese' category. ~ 20 000% times as many shares outstanding as that of Orca Energy. Sir Isaac Newton's 2'nd Law of Motion will tell you exactly how difficult it is to initiate any major movement with such a massively large body of dead weight.
6. Scirocco is still missing the 'Clearance Certificate' from the Tax Department. This must be cleared up.
7. Still no Gas Sales Agreement
8. Still no license extension
9. and on .. and on ... and on it goes ... where it stops, no one knows.
= = = = = = = =
[ assuming production volume 140 000 MMscf/d]
" ... . So, based on this comparative valuation (purely based on estimated production), AEX has a higher valuation already today " ......... " You will probably be able to buy AEX shares at today's prices also when production is up and running at full capacity" . ......" I think most AEX holders are far too optimistic of the future valuation of the company " 1. High Yield
= = = = = = = =
[ production volume 17 MMscf/d from NT-2 ] .. (See my post from last week)
The financial impact of NT-2 production will be minimal.
= = = = = =
There does exist a 'flicker' of hope though and that lies with the 3D seismic over KNDL. The current uptick in share price probably has more to do with KNDL than Ruvuma. The Annual Report for Orca Energy should be released sometime today or tomorrow. There should be some mention of the KNDL 3D seismic. Loaded with a large horde of cash, Orca Energy, has the option of throwing a lifeline towards Aminex. If the KNDL 3D seismic interpretation proves prospective, Orca Energy could become motivated to salvage KNDL.
Spot on prosciutto !
Shorters beware !
There are many reasons why this company has been on a multiyear downtrend.
" This comprises 80.6 BCF of Contingent Resources “Development Pending” from a three well development .. " 1. Feb 2018 Competent Person Report. This can't possibly provide any level of comfort.
NT-3 was to be drilled in 2018. Would this qualify as a delay? These types of delays are typical, plentiful and repetitive. The moving forward and implementation of the supposed 'plan' has been fraught with persistent peril.
Hypothetically, NT-2 may supply some gas... someday, but who knows when .... no guarantees there will be anything supplied.
Let us assume that there is production from NT-2 in October 2023 as they so claim. What would be the financial impact of such an event?
Production at 17 MMscf/d renders ~ US $ 4.25 million /y in net revenue
Projected net EPS estimate ~ US $0.0005.
Earnings Per Share is an annual amount and does not reflect the cash distributions to shareholders.
Price:Earnings ratio 6:1
Price = US $0.003 /sh
Pound Sterling = 0.0024
It should be trading around 0.24 p. Apparently; the financial impact of NT-2 production will be minimal.
Trading at 1.15 p, indicates this stock is grossly overvalued even with NT-2 in full production. Of course, NT-2 isn't in full production.
The fundamentals of this microcap are very weak to say the least. With their hand-to-mouth existence, KNDL will most likely be a farm out arrangement. Aminex will never have enough cash to cover the US $60 - $70 million needed for two expensive offshore development wells and no banker would dare lend them monies. The stock price would fall off the cliff if an attempt was made to tap the equity markets. The investors wouldn't appreciate further dilution. They don't have much choice but to divest their KNDL 'operator status'. This will leave Aminex in the same hapless state Wentworth found itself in ... a lame duck.
If you are expecting the Ruvuma 3D seismic to uncover a massive 'World Class' reservoir similar to Mnazi Bay, then you had best prepare yourself to be disappointed. Beware the excessive promotional verbiage. Try to take a more cerebral approach.
" These violent delights have violent ends" 1. Shakespeare
At the Annual Meeting, with the cash level running ever so low, it will be interesting to hear of how management plans to answer all of the 'unknowns' with the main 'unknown' being how they plan to spin a silk purse from a sow's ear.
Shareholders need to cleanse themselves of any illusion that this company has control over its own destiny. Aminex should get down on bended knee and beg that some company will make an offer and put an end to this never- ending litany of failed aspirations.
Laurel and Hardy come to mind, lol : )
Thank-you yet again for your valuable insights prosciutto.
I can tell you now that Tanz has very little chance of graduating.
March 29th, 2023. 12:30 PM
True / False Quiz
Title: " Reality Check on Aminex"
1) Ruvuma 3D Seismic interpretation has been released
2) Ruvuma Gas Sales Agreement is in place
3) Pipeline construction has started
4) AEX has sufficient capital to invest in Kiliwani development
5) AEX has a 'proven' source of 'material' income
6) A firm drilling date has been set for CH-1a
7) Ruvuma 3D seismic interpretation expected to reveal an elephant-sized reservoir
8) They'll be able to maintain 'operator status' for KNDL
9) They have found a farm-in partner for KNDL
10) SCIR deal is all wrapped up
11) Delays are rare in Tanzania
12) Shareholders wouldn't mind further dilution
13) Tullow found vast quantities of oil at Likonde-1 well just North of NT-1
14) Institutional Investors are enthralled about investing in a microcap
15) Finances are so strong, there is no need to farm out KNDL
16) Delays are few and are of no concern
7) Things move at lightning speed in Tanzania
18) Because of possible gas cash-flow, expect stellar profits
19) Because of possible gas cash-flow, expect a dividend
20) Geologic features of Ruvuma are identical to Mnazi Bay
21) Any issues we have here can be blamed on Silicon Valley Bank
22) World gas prices have a strong bearing on local gas prices
23) There are minimal levels of Government bureaucracy to deal with
24) " It's all speculation " 1. RogerJolly
25) Getting down on bended knee for an offer, is one way to alleviate this mountain of misery.
= = = = = = = = = =
Mark your own Quiz
1) to 23) are all False and 24), 25) are both True
Tanzania.
Report you mark to Professor RoJo. He'll determine whether you graduate or not. Professor RoJo could help you with any residual questions you may have. Professor RoJo is admirably adapted to check your work. I've been told he solves half a dozen second order nonlinear differential equations before breakfast as a warm-up exercise.
= = = = = =
High Yield
" Assuming the same situation for AEX would mean an annual revenue of about 10 MUSD if the license produce 40 mmscf/d. " 1. High Yield
OK ... let's hypothetically go with 40 MMscf/d but what time frame?
1. Why not finish this ... your estimated earnings per share in USD?
2. The big elephant in the room ... Is there enough capital for development drilling at KNDL in 2024?
Re: Ruvuma
Tullow was disappointed with the oil-prospective Likonde-1 well which is just a few km North of NT-1.... they left ... no oil here.
The 3D seismic has yet to prove that there is more than just isolated small stratigraphic traps/pockets of gas. This isn't a 'Mnazi Bay' type of reservoir.... different facies, different trapping configuration, different petroleum system. What the 3D seismic needs to do is prove that this is commercial both in scale and sustained rates.
Multiple year delays are common here ...
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year .. " Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
NT-3 / CH-1 was supposed to be drilled in 2018.
What's holding up SCIR's Ruvuma closing? Where is the GSA?
= = = = = = = = =
Re: KNDL and a lesson on 'Finance 101'.
The happy-pill pushers failed the introductory course on 'Finance 101' and failed badly.
The upcoming capex next year implies that some major decision making must take place.
The plan would likely call for two very expensive offshore development wells to be drilled at KNDL ~ US $60 - $70 million
Even with a hypothetical 25% of gas from NT-2, Aminex will still be massively short on funds.
((17 MMscf/d * $3.65/mcf * 365 d/yr * 0.25) - $4 million G&A )) / 4.123 Billion = US $0.000403 /sh
Aminex Earnings =~ US $0.000403 /sh .. enough to prevent insolvency but just barely.
How is Aminex going to pay for their % of the KNDL development drilling without becoming an eviscerated carcass?
Answer ... it can't. Correction .... it's impossible.
Their KNDL 'operator status' is in danger of being forfeited.
Perhaps, they could issue more shares? There are already so many shares outstanding that Aminex badly needs a weight loss goal: To be able to clip its toenails and breathe at the same time.
There won't be any dividend.... not a snowball's chance in hell. Just to be able to continue as a 'going concern' will be a major challenge. Let's face it ... this company isn't going anywhere fast.
" Annual Income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 20 pounds ought and six, result misery" 1. Charles Dickens
Aminex should get down on bended knee and hope that some company will make an offer and put an end to this never- ending mountain of misery.
Great find Smudger. To pushing the training for oil and gas jobs in schools and clubs in country, shows just where they see this heading with the expectations from Ruvuma. That to me is another leg up for confidence
Lol RoJo. : )
Like a coiled spring this, get that bucket and spade ready to help out with the pipeline RJ
https://www.africa-press.net/tanzania/all-news/madimba-gas-production-capacity-increases-by-two-folds
The disappointing news will come soon enough BG.
I've been enjoying watching you all getting over-excited (again).
Oh smudge! Do you understand anything ?