focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Highlights of the week
" My thoughts are that LNG can get good money " StockCheque
Aminex has no connection to LNG.
" But AEX has a history of over promising and underdelivering and I suggest that most, if not all lth would prefer the BoD to be honest and realistic after years of hyperbole, false dawns and serial disappointment." 1. CrustyPete
Even if production eventually does start, it won't have much of an impact. Payment in Tanzanian currency will hurt badly.
= = = = = =
The company has a negative working capital. The age of easy money is gone, and the shareholders will suffer the consequences.
Survey
a) Will a capital raise be required?
b) If so, what impact will this have on share price?
My answer
a) Most likely, yes!
b) Hopefully, it won't drop substantially lower, but it might.
= = = = = = = =
Be wary of the rampers with whom you swim.
" You don't know who's been swimming naked, until the tide goes out." 1. Warren Buffett
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Highlights of the week
" please stop filling the thread with patently hyper optimistic drivel." 1. apbristo
drivel ... good word.
" You should go to Tanzania to have look. people there not even has plenty house.only someof them made from grass and tree leaves." 1. 91 joyo
Question the morality of making a fortune off the backs of the poverty-stricken.
" As the current sp proves no amount of gas under the ground has a direct impact on the sp - reserves versus resources - without a GSA, a Pipeline, news on the workovers, drill contract etc it isn't worth much at all.... not in sp terms anyway." 1. CrustyPete
The peers forecast that, even with full production, Aminex' share price won't be worth much.
= = = = = =
Calculating the earnings even though there is no inflow of capital.
Let us assume Ntorya-2 is eventually brought online.
17 MMscfd, 25% interest, US $3.65 / mcf, 365 days /yr, > $4 million (G&A + minutiae), 4.123 557 000 Billion shares. ((17 MMscfd * $3.65/mcf * 365 * 0.25) - $4 million)) / 4.123 Billion = US $0.000403 /sh ( 0.000336 pounds/sh)
Aminex Earnings =~ US $0.000403 /sh. Not much to brag about but that is enough to send the rampers into a hyperbolic frenzy. Keep in mind, the Ruvuma breast-feeding with the free carry will last only so long and then the real costs kick in. You can easily sink US $500 million into Ruvuma.
This company is basically a 'proxy' company. It does not have a mind of its own. The company should not be considered to be independent. A gold-eagle coin it is not. This company is much closer to that of a castrated eunuch. They are going to need money. Cheap and free money without consequences, is a thing of the past. Do not expect them to raise money easily. The age of easy money is gone, and the shareholders will suffer the consequences.
The good news is that someone wants to maintain Aminex' 'going concern' status. Having said that, you should prepare yourself for further dilution. Any quick stock price movement will be met with inevitable exhaustion.
Be wary of the rampers whom you swim with.
" You don't know who's been swimming naked, until the tide goes out." 1. Warren Buffett
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
"The results of the interpretation will be released by an independent third party company in the form of a CPR."
"This usually takes a month, so we should hear about the CPR by the end of the month, if not then by February"
Wondered, yes agree, though I think its possible we could get an earlier release of the CPR findings than you anticipate. Of course time will tell. 🙂
"The entire 3D seismic data processed interpretation will be completed in Q4 2023, permitting a total revision of the gas reserve and resource potential for the field. Moreover, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd has been contracted to produce an updated CPR before the end of this year."
I can today announce an amendment to the new years honours list. An MBE for services rendered is to be awarded to Prosciutto by the kings kitchen maid at the back door of
Buckingham Palace.
A person so dedicated to the cause that they have given up their Wednesday mornings to write a doom laden speech once a week since November 2022 in an effort to achieve recognition in the Guinness book of records for the longest boring thread ever.
A gullible public would surely be lost and bankrupt without such long devotion to duty. Sadly this year when news arrives we will see his retirement.
I'm sure all but one will be pleased to see the back of him and his many aliases.
Would anybody like to chip in for a gold watch?
The 3D seismic results had already been received by ARA prior to its back in rights purchase of SCIROCCO's 25%, which suggests the team has already seen and internally analysed the results hence confident enough to take on the extra risk and expenditure.
The RNS states that interpretation will be complete by Q4 23. The results of which may lead to an increase in the resource.
The results of the interpretation will be released by an independent third party company in the form of a CPR.
This usually takes a month, so we should hear about the CPR by the end of the month, if not then by February.
As for NT-2, let's not get semantic. Either way, it will be "worked" on. As with any work plan there are always delays.
Given the stage ARA have got to now it is only a matter of time before things begin moving at a pace.
Let's review after the next update which is overdue.
Highlights of the week
" All I can take from that, objectively, is that progress is not as fast as anticipated and more delays, sadly lie ahead." 1 NorthernMagic
Yes! Call it diffusion, call it osmosis or whatever but this reality is starting to sink in.
" .... NT-2 workover in H1 .... `1. Wonderer
??????
There is no workover required for Nt-2
" Has rescheduled its two-week well-testing programme (originally proposed for late March 2023) on the Ntorya-2 well, designed to provide additional information required for the design of in-field processing facilities, to be completed in the coming months" 1. Aminex
= = = = = = =
Obviously, the company is faced with perpetual and multiple delays on every front.
" Has fully processed the 3D seismic data. Given the vast volume of data acquired, interpretation is now due to be completed in Q4 2023, which may result in a full revision of gas reserve and resource potential for the field." 1. Aminex
The 3D seismic interpretation is supposedly finished. So, why the delay with releasing the interpretation? Their thesis being that there will be a 'World Class' reservoir present.
It is fairly easy to avoid a fraud but what isn't easy to avoid is the failed, honest efforts with a good target, with good people and with a good thought-out thesis. But what happens if their thesis is wrong?
Is it possible they haven't found that 'World-Class' reservoir? ... mais oui
It is one thing being sanguine about the risk involved but what if there is no 'World-Class' reservoir present? Are you prepared to absorb a collapse in the risk- adjusted NPV?
Also, if past is prologue, the delays will most likely continue and the noose around Aminex' neck continues to tighten ever so slowly.
The raw juxtaposition of risk versus reward is so unclear you would wonder why anyone would dare touch this penny dreadful.
Be skeptical of the rampers.
" Modest doubt is called
The beacon of the wise" 1. Shakespeare.
Encourage the takeover of Aminex.. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
He did attend the remedial class on three occasions prosciutto but didn't complete the course, let alone pass it.
Not one of my better students. He sat at the back, trumping and misbehaving. Very disruptive. I imagine bingo suits him better.
Not good enough for you RJ. What you want to hear is an impossible task, yes ? Your Messiah's slowly but surely falling on content. Why's is that ?
A "formidable task" ?
That's an understatement !
Cont'd
" A little neglect may breed great mischief ..... for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost: for the want of a shoe, the horse was lost: and for the want of a horse, the rider was lost." 1. Benjamin Franklin
Don't be a lost rider.
X
To: ;
12/26/2023 09:01 PM
0
Edit
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Solar Energy produces electricity which produces the heat for this oil pipeline. Natural gas is not required. Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" at least 8TCF which was estimated by ARA as GIIP on the 2D seismic. Not sure how the gas can disappear. It's been drilled and proven to 3TCF. " 1. PageofCups
There is not even one cubic foot of 1P gas reserves.
= = = = = = =
Professor RoJo: re: your remedial class
Did you graduate this chap? You need to restart your remedial class. The level of knowledge needs to be elevated.
Teach them the difference between reserve and resource.
Teach them how useless 2D is ... nothing more than a model driven cartoon with many flaws in it in terms of reservoir disposition, updip, lateral and seat seal issues, sufficient charge focus, etc, etc.
Ask them how the 'Competent Person' of the 2018 CPR suddenly became 'Incompetent'?
Teach them about 1P, 2C, 3C etc and the meaning of the term "contingent". Also, make sure they know that 'Contingent' isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Teach them that revenue and profit are not the same. Yes, you have a student that thinks revenue is equivalent to profit.
Teach them how to read a balance sheet. Fundamentals do matter.
Teach them the danger of 'negative working capital'. They need to understand that If you can't pay the bills, you are in deep, deep trouble.
Teach them the difference entre 'reactive' and 'proactive'.
Teach them the danger as a non-operator... no say, no sway, no control over anything.
Did your beloved Tanzania pass this course? Also, sign up the "silly list" author .. the same jollyboy ramper of Helium One at > 9p.
Good luck with this formidable task.
= = = = = = = = = =
re: Helium One
" The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning." 1. prosciutto Dec 20, 2023.
The capital raise for Helium One was large as was the share price drop.... a 70% drop the very next day after my "implosion" warning. What similarities can you detect here?
============
This is a tough business environment in which to raise some cash. This doesn't bode well for Aminex. Any capital raise for Aminex may have to be at a lower price than anticipated. Perhaps, 2 billion shares at 0.5p will suffice.
Lesson: Do NOT neglect the balance sheet.
" A little neglect may breed great mischief ..... for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost: for the want of a shoe, the horse was lost: and for the want of a horse, the rider was lost.
Don’t know if they’ve changed any energy policy prosiccuto but it is stated in the Tanzanian news 14/12/23, the first 100km of pipes have arrived in Dar e Salam.
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" FWIW RJ, I think He1 are really struggling to get the quantum of funding they need and even if they do it will come at the cost of HUGE dilution akin to the AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - neither having a pot to p iss in and requiring a "white knight" to ride in and save them - but at a "fire sale" price of course...." 1. CrustyPete
Yes, very insightful.
Orca Energy Group has over US $100 million in cash. It is highly unlikely that Orca would be interested in either of these two eunuchs. Perhaps, it could become interested at a really deep " fire sale" price.
= = = = = = = = = =
Whatever happened with the workover for Ntorya -1? Whatever happened with the well testing for Ntorya -2?
With these cascading delays, deliberately fabricated or otherwise, things could turn for the worse. Aminex has boxed itself into a corner.
ARA Petroleum will survive but can Aminex survive as a 'going concern' with these perpetual delays? The Gov't of Tanzania tends to be reactive instead of proactive and as a consequence, is notorious for slippage of timelines. Time is of the essence and Aminex does not have plenty of it to spare.
Take a look at what's happening over at Helium1
" In undertaking this costing exercise the Company has been cognisant of the contingency funding that may be required given the significant additional costs and time delays encountered during the drilling of Tai-3. " Helium1 Dec 5, 2023.
The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning. ARA Petroleum will most likely throw Aminex a lifeline but at what cost? ARA's duty to alleviate Aminex' financial distress is embedded within a 'conflict of interest' screenplay. A fragile and financially weakened Aminex makes for an easy prey, and they know it.
Since inception, Aminex has been nothing but one big disappointment after another.
" And nothing to look backward with pride;
And nothing to look forward to with hope." 1. Robert Frost
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Facts you don't like RoJo.....
What are you wittering on about Tanz ?!?
Not if you and your Messiah have your way RJ. All to satisfy that huge grudge you carry, it seems for evermore......
Must be frustrating for you with your hopes of seeing our investment crash, yes ?
Joel - you just don't get it.
We have about a gazillion cu ft of gas in the ground.
All we need is a development licence, a GSA, a drill rig and drill pad, and a pipeline and we'll be up and away.
Wow, checking back in here after all this time....with obviously no change.
Still the odd old face hanging around that never learnt their lesson and are still being mugged off by the Tanzanian government.
Congratulations winalot !
I don't know what we'd do without prosciutto's words of wisdom.
Can't believe I made it into Prosciuttos weekly spiel. I don't know what to say. Lol
Highlights of the week
" And has anyone looked at the chart since 1995? how many share are in issue today and how many next year? gulp " 1. commercia
Probably 1.5 billion more
" 8tcf based on 2d siesmics doesn't necessarily mean 3d will confirm that or more, it swings both ways. Clearer 3d siesmics might confirm what they thought was there isn't actually as much as they thought." 1. winalot
If you are expecting a World Class reservoir, you had best prepare yourself to be disappointed. This could be Tembo2. The interpretation of the Ruvuma 3D seismic would require positive confirmation. This is not a given. This is a totally different reservoir than Mnazi Bay. The 3D seismic must prove that this area is NOT comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas... ie, reservoir producibility issues which would lead to a very high well count and low recovery per well.
ie, how long did KN-1 last? Answer: Not very long.
= = = = = = = = = =
Lingering issues
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
3) There has been no final closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) The peers are struggling even with production that is well above anything you could ever expect from Aminex.
5) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are they working on?
If they proceed with a capital raise, there is no guarantee that there are enough buyers for 1.5 billion shares at 0.65 p. Check out Helium1 to witness firsthand the consequence of dilution on the share price. That is known as an ' off-the-cliff ' catastrophic share price collapse. With any dilution, you can expect a similar outcome here.
There is always hope but ...
" He that lives upon hope will die fasting" 1. Benjamin Franklin
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
It works both ways - a series of posts/posters refusing to post anything but a binary view. All serves to break a discussion board that could be a useful resource if used with more maturity and without personal attacks.
Hard nose
I think we all know that the drill is six years late due to the actions or more correctly inactions of the Tanzanian Government. AEX \ARA can’t force the Government to make decisions and hence the delay has been essentially out of their control. The previous Government was particularly bad but the new Government has promised to be more mining friendly and reduce delays. They are certainly better and decisions are being made. AEX /ARA have made progress most recently with the consent for the SCIR transaction which has now completed. The new 25 year license which is awaiting Government signing can now have the current partners on it ARA and AEX. The delay with the 2 signatures is not more than a few weeks late and could land any day now. There are no rose tinted spectacles on my part as I have been invested here for more years than I care to remember. I firmly believe we will have the signatures very soon whereupon the sp will correct. I am just finding the continuing negativity from some posters unjustified and unhelpful.
Gosh - that was all very personal. We’ve all been reading the RNS’s and according to the information they provide, we’re currently 6 years late drilling a well with no firm date as to when it will happen.
The market speaks far louder than the half dozen or so individuals here who rose-tint this share. The unwillingness to absorb any point of view that is less than positive is just odd, and actually serves to undermine any belief that there may be a worthwhile investment case.
And has anyone looked at the chart since 1995? how many share are in issue today and how many next year? gulp