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That figure will become further derisked as they continue to drill further Wells and delineate the field.
It all starts with CH-1. If that can prove up the resource then we will have even more drills as part of the Development program targeting an even larger resource.
That's the risked valuation. Basically it's what the broker thinks AEX is worth prior to proving up the resource.
Once we start drilling and CH-1 delivers the results then I expect we could be anywhere between 4p to 20p.
Just depends on the results.
Noooooo not the imminent word again. Last time that was used was in July and we're still waiting for the approval of CH-1 pad location.
Guess it's another day closer even though they've pushed the timelines out for the Pipeline,again. Seems like the CPR update will take a little longer hence BoD filling the lull.
March should see the Development License being issued and CPR released. Although I believe the numbers will be a little different given BoD have stated in the RNS that it concentrated on a smaller area.
Either way, once drilling gets underway and proves up the resource this should be around 4p and if 16Tcf is proved up then I'd say set your sights much higher...
Looks like we won't be watching that donkey eat a donkey...
Shame... I was really looking forward to it. I expect the Development licence to be issued next month, fingers crossed and the CPR to be released.
The Development Licence has been with the Cabinet of Ministers for 8 months now, so can't be much longer I would expect.
CPR is overdue by 2 months, so should see it released next month as it doesn't take that long to interpret it.
Still living in hope that they drill CH-1 mid to late summer in Q3 and I guess we will get an update soon enough
i would personally recommend everyone vote to get the money returned to shareholders as we can all see what the bod will do and that is **** it up the wall...
if i was holding shares here i would purchase even more at this level given the amount scir are due from ara....
this will give existing holders even more leverage when it comes to the vote...
hope it goes your way...
What are we expecting in terms of flow rates?
CrustyPete
Depends on your point of view and how long you've been holding imo. One can argue, since the last placing nearly 2 years ago, there has been lots of developments and progress.
All shipments of long lead items have been delivered, the 3D Seismic has been completed and the results will be released once the CPR is complete.
We have amended the PSA to include gas, and the GSA has been signed off with the Development License in the process of being issued soon as per recent RNS.
The location of CH-1 has been tweaked on the back of the seismics, which demonstrates just how confident they are with the results.
In addition we now have a much faster route to market with the pipeline and at a much higher flow rate.
Whilst everyone would have loved Aminex to have drilled CH-1 by now and be selling gas into the pipeline, we have to be realistic about how long these things take in reality.
Patience is required on a much larger scale here but once the main milestones are met and the risks mitigated by such milestones, we will see things beginning to gather pace and progress will become more apparent.
Everyone loves a drill, and when we get the Development License issued and CPR released, the excitement will build as we move towards drilling CH-1 and finding out the results.
Only a matter of time before we find out...
P.S: I was in Frontera Resources and threw the towel in just 6 months before they shot up in the run up to the drill and it did 1600%....
This can potentially 10bag from the current level into CH-1 results and I'm not missing that opportunity even have to wait another 6 months to drill CH-1...
I agree with your sentiment CrustyPete, but every day is another day closer to it getting issued. We can all live in hope that day is today or tomorrow, as the days go by...
The only logic that applies here is that the Tanz Gov have been in the press stating that the Ruvuma Gas Development is the biggest project to date that they are involved in.
Therefore, it's in their interest to bring it to fruition. They have taken steps as mentioned in the RNS's to clear the path for the construction of the pipeline, with payments been made to resettle residents. If this is not a sign of their clear intention to progress the work, I don't know what is.
The pipeline construction contract was put out for tender, and bids were received to the point where a Contractor has been allocated.
So, given the above, I expect we should hear soon about the Development License being issued as this is the only remaining item that is required to continue our route to drilling CH-1 and first gas being achieved.
Given the delays with the pipeline, the GSA mentions restricted rates of 48mmcfpd for the first year, which to me suggests that a different route will be utilised initially whilst the pipeline construction is finalised.
ARA have received their third shipment of long lead items and, according to the BoD, will allow the award of the rig contract, whatever that means.
Hopefully it means they have selected a rig and will be using it once the Development License is issued.
Got more chance of winning the lottery than guessing when that License will be issued as the Tanz gov do like taking the Michael, hence why we have lots a long term frustrated holders here.
The Tanz Gov have had long enough so we should hopefully see it issued soon..
Famous last words lol...
Winalot
Agree with your sentiment but it's not down to the BoD to deliver the 25yr Development License. Its with the Cabinet of Ministers and has been agreed by all parties, just requires sign off.
Given that we've been waiting 7 months already, it can't be far off from being signed, whenever that is.
I feel its close and the GSA was the precursor imo..
Let's see...
MJ
AEX is carried for their 25% stake by ARA and the cash burn is $1.4m pa of which they had $5m as reported in the Half Year Results
That will last until Q4 2026 so they have plenty of cash to see this through to first gas.
Cperkin
Seeing as we've been waiting nearly 7 months for the Development License to be signed off by the Cabinet of Ministers, I reckon we will see it signed off soon, as per last RNS.
My guess is either this month or the next at the very latest given BoD comments that the signing of the GSA would lead to the early issuance of the Development License.
Given the importance of the asset, and the fact that ARA would be pressing them, I think it's close to being signed off.
Time to load up on these drops as it will build up towards flow test results