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Bullfrog, you are correct that Orca's gas reserves are decreasing at a high rate and you also include the explanation for that, as reserves can only include gas that can be expected to be produced during the license period.
"The reduction in reserves was attributed to a 21% reduction in the time remaining until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence (3.8 year remaining at year end 2022 versus 4.8 years at year end 2021), which was partially offset by increased Company conventional natural gas sales and forecasts (which will be classified as Additional Gas (as defined in the Songo Songo PSA) (“gas sales“) until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence in October 2026)."
It will be more appropriate to compare reserves and company valuations when and if Orca gets a license extention. I think the odds are in favor of such a license extention, especially as Orca from 31st of July 2024 can stop deliver "protected gas" at cost.
I encourage all AEX holders to take a look at Orca as well. I think it offers good value at low risk.
Good post Bullfrog
Or is Orca so lowly valued because its reserves are running out? ORCA have BCF whereas Aminex and ARA are looking at reserves in multi TCF. We will have to wait for the CPR before we can start making real comparisons.
Total Proved (“1P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2022, were 141 billion standard cubic feet (“Bcf“) compared to 160 Bcf at year end 2021, representing a 12% decrease.
Total Proved plus Probable (“2P”) Gross Company conventional natural gas reserves at year ended December 31, 2022, were 167 Bcf compared to 188 Bcf at year end 2021, representing an 11% decrease.
The reduction in Gross Company 1P reserves from year end 2021 to year end 2022 was primarily attributed to 2022 gas production and the number of years remaining on the Songo Songo Licence. The reduction in reserves was attributed to a 21% reduction in the time remaining until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence (3.8 year remaining at year end 2022 versus 4.8 years at year end 2021), which was partially offset by increased Company conventional natural gas sales and forecasts (which will be classified as Additional Gas (as defined in the Songo Songo PSA) (“gas sales“) until the expiry of the current Songo Songo Licence in October 2026).
The Company had record gas sales of 29 Bcf in 2022, representing an increase of approximately 42% compared to year end 2021. With the installation and commissioning of inlet compression at the Songas Gas plant in March 2022, the Company was able to contribute to a significant increase in gas to power generation caused in part due to drought conditions in Tanzania throughout 2022 and the commissioning of the Kinyerezi 1 Power Plant extension in Q4 2022.
Net Present Value of 1P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $147.2 million at year end 2022, compared to $177.8 million at year end 2021, representing a 17% decrease.
Net Present Value of 2P future net revenue discounted at 10% was $170.7 million at year end 2022, compared to $209.9 million at year end 2021, representing a 19% decrease.
The reductions in net present values of 1P future net revenues from year end 2021 to year end 2022 was primarily attributed to lower reserves at year end 2022 as a result of the reduced number of years outstanding on the current Songo Songo Licence and an increased need for future development capital to supply increased gas sales.
Some good news with the SCIR news release but this shouldn't have much of an impact. Hopefully, you took some profits on this irrational exuberance.
In comparison to Orca Energy Group, AEX is already priced as if it were in FULL production.
Facts: Comparative Peer Analysis
The ambition for Aminex is to arrive at 35 MMscf/d (25% of 140 MMscf/d). Orca Energy Group is well beyond this level, and still has little market recognition. Orca Energy Group is trading well below its cash per share level. If this is what you are hoping to achieve, you had best get ready to be disappointed.
Yield: Aminex 0.00% .....Orca Energy Group 8.6%
Production 2022: Aminex NIL ..... Orca Energy Group > 86.8 MMscf/d additional gas + 35.8 MMscf/d protected gas which is set to become unprotected July 31, 2024. The protected gas is sold at cost. The company makes no profit on the protected gas but that is about to change on July 31, 2024.
Revenue 2022: Aminex NIL ..... Orca Energy Group > US $118 million
Earnings per share 2022: Aminex US $ (0.10) ..... Orca Energy Group US $1.39
Shares issued: Aminex ~ 4 211 million ..... Orca Energy Group ~ 20 million
Cash per share: Aminex US $0.001 ..... Orca Energy Group > US $5.15 (trading at US $3.45)
Market Cap: Aminex ~ US $66 million ..... Orca Energy Group ~ US $68 million (setting Class A to Class B price)
Enterprise Value: Aminex ~ US $69 million .. Orca Energy Group ~ US $33 million
Aminex is overvalued in comparison to its 'true' peer.
It may be time to adapt. Aminex has a negative working cap, '0' cubic feet of production and '0' cubic feet of 1P gas reserves.
" Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature's inexorable imperative. "
H. G. Wells
USD (000), Jun 30, 2023
Total Current Assets $6 598
Total Current Liabilities $10 206
At high risk for a capital raise. Raising money in this environment will be challenging.
Sam I Aminex keeps offering us green eggs and ham, will they ever prove to be good or will hats be eaten instead.
Mick2020 isn't that the invading guy from Wentworth that got christened one tick Mick on here?
You remind me very much of him Prossie and at least you get the one tick from RoJo every week when his typing fingers have recovered 😁
... More salivic dribble from the ham man.. Oh dear...
Highlight of the Week.
Tanzania Energy Congress
KEYNOTE ADDRESS – PAN AFRICAN ENERGY
Speaker: EWEN DENNING COO Orca Energy Group: Sept 20, 2023
TANZANIA’S ENERGY PROJECTS ON THE WORLD STAGE: WAY FORWARD FROM IMPLEMENTATION TO MARKET
• Tanzania LNG: A mega project supplying energy to global markets
• Opportunities arising from the next generation of energy projects in Tanzania: Opportunities for local, national and international businesses
• Investments: How the Tanzania LNG will open top – bottom number business opportunities
• Options for Tanzania’s gas, LNG and energy production: Onshore, offshore, gas to power
• Exporting gas and LNG to the globe: Tanzania as a reliable and sustainable global energy partner
• Infrastructure development and creation: Supporting energy projects growth
• Tenders and contracts: What to expect next – what lies ahead in terms of real opportunities"
= = = = = = = = =
Multiple-year delays are common here.
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year .. " Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR. Aminex
Drilling of Nt-3 was to start 2018. Five years later and still nothing.
= = = = = = =
We are all still anxiously awaiting the 3D seismic interpretation. The 3D seismic has yet to prove that there is more than just isolated small stratigraphic traps/pockets of gas. This isn't a 'Mnazi Bay' type of reservoir.... different facies, different trapping configuration, different petroleum system. What the 3D seismic needs to do is prove that this is commercial both in scale and sustained rates.
= = = = = = = =
" The directors maintained their position of a full impairment over Nyuni Atea PSA CGU. " 1. Aminex
The word ' impairment ' is used frequently. You had best hope Ruvuma doesn't become impaired.
= = = = = = = =
The FREE CARRY is independent of the Working Capital. It is NOT an asset on the balance sheet as part of the current assets but then again, ignorance is bliss. It is the negative Working Capital you have to be worried about. What they have here is a case of the current liabilities being greater than the current assets. In simple English ... there is insufficient monies to pay the bills. Any adolescent subterfuge directed at good people like RoJo and Mick2020 is misplaced. Whilst most Oil& Gas have tripled in price over the last three years, this eviscerated carcass has dropped 80% since Mick2020 begged you to execute avoidance maneuvers.
" All men make mistakes, but only the wise ones learn from their mistakes. " 1. Winston Churchill
Aminex needs to figure out a way to decommission itself. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Well Tanzania, is the penny finally dropping??
Temperature well into the 30s here. How is it in Balham?
Thank you as usual prosciutto!
I have to admit, I am quite worried about the asset value of the unused portion of the free carry AEX have as an asset. Thats why you will notice I clearly never, ever refer to that subject as it doesn't support my grudge vendetta. You know it makes sense.
Tanzania Energy Congress starts next week Wed Sept 20th. Keynote Address is from Pan African Energy (Orca Energy Group). " TANZANIA’S ENERGY PROJECTS ON THE WORLD STAGE: WAY FORWARD FROM IMPLEMENTATION TO MARKET"
It would be worthwhile for Aminex to attend.
= = = = = = = = =
Highlights of the week
" Any additional delay past the 30th September would put SCIR in default, they will not have paid any costs for over a year. Are ARA going to extend SCIR any more wiggle room after all this time? " 1. CrustyPete
With a negative working capital, there is a very big risk that the company will need additional funding. With the balance sheet ae week as it is, the plan of borrowing money is no longer on the table. No 'sane' banker would be willing to lend this company any funds. They likely have the option to borrow from ARA but that could place them in the same bind as SCIR. It may be very tempting, but you had best hope they do NOT take out a loan from ARA. Even though equity dilution will have a negative impact on share price, it appears to be the better of the two bad choices.
= = = = =
" Many (most?) things planned don't happen and target dates are almost inevitably missed." 1. RoJo
Professor RoJo is very perceptive.
= = = = = = =
" .... If the boat sinks .... " 1. Tanzania
It won't be ARA's boat that sinks. Orchestrated or not, there may be yet another delay. With a negative working capital this could precipitate the FULL collapse of Aminex into ARA's / TPDC's lap and they, acting as the salvage operators, would be quite pleased with that scenario.
There have been delays in the past. There are delays in the present and there exists a high probability of further delays.
= = = = = = = = =
" .... now look what they have, 2 TCF of gas atm, .... " 1. Blackgold00
This needs to be added to the 'silly list". There is no end to the profusion of ignorance.
The reality here is that this Company does NOT have even ONE cubic foot of 1P gas reserves atm.
= = = = = =
The US $140 million to be spent on Ruvuma will only cover a fraction of what is needed. The entire area will be significantly higher, probably closer to US $500 million. Does Aminex have significant capital to help explore and help develop the contingent and prospective resources?
Aminex is near the top percentile of the worst performing Oil & Gas Stock. Aminex lacks the ability to move in or move out. Aminex is unable to plan or control anything. Aminex is unable to execute any plan.
Aminex needs to figure out a way to decommission itself. You must force the company to act and seize the day before it is too late. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Let's just say that the RNS are generally somewhat over-ambitious.
Many (most?) things planned don't happen and target dates are almost inevitably missed.
I suggest you go back through the historic RNS and assess actual performance and achievements.
"How you can suggest we're nearly there when we are so obviously not"
Well RoJo, let's just call it knowledge or understanding ie ( reading and understanding what is said in the RNSs. 🙂
Unless you're telling me their RNSs are lies or deceitful. Is that what you're saying RoJo? Because if it is then that is a totally different conversation. 🙂
"Where is it ? Not in the bank !"
What, Sorry RoJo, I don't want to be rude, I think we'll just leave it there.
How you can suggest we're nearly there when we are so obviously not is scandalous.
All this forever waiting for the golden future has affected your brain.
"No pipeline, no rig, no drill pad, no GSA,"
Here you go again, lol, read your Beano
Meaningless !
Where is it ? Not in the bank !
What no money, no power, no control, lol, they have a $35 million free carry you monkey. 🙂
No pipeline, no rig, no drill pad, no GSA,......
No control, no power, no money...
That was a 25% share of 2 TCF of gas of course.
10 + years ago Aminex had nothing, now look what they have, 2 TCF of gas atm, and with the pent up news flow in the pipeline, stresses I don't think so. Lol
"NO, not yet but we're nearly there"
...and for how long have you been posting this stuff BG ?
10 years ? 15 years ?
Nearly there ? I think you're wrong, but we'll see. If you're right we won't have long to wait.
Looks like you're stressed BG - I wonder why !