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What say I about what or whom Mrs Gaslady?
Tullow would not have abandoned TZ had they found oil just North of Nt-1.
" TPDC back-in rights, is upto 15% of the Ntorya development .... " blackgold00
"Don't expect any back-in payment from TPDC"
He really has not got a clue how tpdc back-in rights work. What a dip stick. Lol, he reminds me of that very strange character Bunbooster, yes well he disappeared in a puff of smoke hopefully this one will as well.
Utter rubbish
What say you MrMoi?
Highlights of the week
" There's oil alright." 1. jamtart1
Tullow would not have abandoned TZ had they found oil just North of Nt-1.
" TPDC back-in rights, is upto 15% of the Ntorya development .... " blackgold00
Don't expect any back-in payment from TPDC. Orca Energy Group has been waiting 15 years for a back-in payment from TPDC. Do expect TPDC to be more than 'on board' and 'in your face'. Utilizing delaying procedural tactics often results in a postponement that can put Aminex in a financially precarious spot. Aminex has no control against these multitude of nefarious forces lined up against it.
The bigger concern should be whether or not TPDC will sanction the 'going concern' of Aminex. TPDC may consider purchasing the remaining assets of this foreign entity at a reduced price due to financial distress.
= = = = = = = =
Question of the week
It doesn't matter what the 3D seismic depicts. If you can't make a profit, you can't make a profit!
Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?
= = = = = = = =
There are so many issues still to be resolved.
Has a rig been contracted? Is there a rig available?
Is there a resolution to the foreign exchange reserve deficiency? Why would ARA proceed without a resolution to this issue?
It doesn't appear that cash flow will arrive in time for Aminex! What are they going to do?
It doesn't appear that they'll be able to retain the operator status for Kiliwani. What are they going to do?
How do you anticipate the company generating a profit when payments are made in Tanzanian Shillings?
Do you truly think that TPDC will proceed with a back-in payment?
= = = = = = = =
The company's track record is essentially 10 to 15 years of missed opportunity costs. Aminex is non sine periculo .... far, far from it.
" Wisdom consists in being able to distinguish among dangers and make a choice of the least harmful." 1. Machiavelli
Receiving a takeover offer can be considered fortunate and may be seen as a blessing if it occurs. Regrettably, the imposition of a substantial capital gains tax renders this option improbable. Perhaps, TPDC may be able to find a solution to this 'tax' issue.
This is the sardonic stuff we must expect from RoJo !
Anyway, lets hope it hangs on to 1.05p today.
...venturing out of your comfort zone Tom ?
copy n'pasting suits you better I think...
From 4p to 2p to 1.43p, make your mind up.
Well Tom - a 30% premium would be 1.43p
Looks like good advice to me.
You left a bit out you old ham you.
Accept a takeover offer and enjoy a 30% premium to market.
Highlights of the week
"This whole situation is a result of a calculated plan to get control of the asset without giving shareholders any benefit. The government,tpdc and ara are in cahoots with each other to get aminex to run out of money so they can take over with little or no cost to themselves." 1. mj152
With a negative working capital, the company doesn't have enough money to pay the bills. Aminex is essentially a shell / surrogate / proxy of ARA. A single person could manage the entire company since there is little to do, perhaps only sharpening pencils. There is not much TO do because there is not much they CAN do.
= = = = = = = =
Consider the situation regarding the deficiency in foreign exchange reserves.
" There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
Aminex has a 25% interest in Ruvuma so Ruvima would need to produce 487.2 MMscf/d to equate to Orca's 121.8 MMscf/d. Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4 and the foreign exchange reserve deficiency was a contributing factor.
If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so. Why proceed with a business plan if it is destined for a loss?
Brace for another delay and hope that Aminex doesn't follow Scirocco's trajectory A capital raise appears increasingly probable. The capital raise would trigger a significant drop in share price after the pump.
A decision must be made.
" Not to decide is to decide" 1. Laurence J. Peter.
Highlights of the week
" Sadly, it's always next year." 1. winalot
" ... or the year after that." 1. RoJo
= = = = = = = =
Re: Q4 of Orca Energy Group
β2023 was a challenging year for Orca, driven by considerable macroeconomic fluctuations and company specific uncertainties. Despite this, significant time and resources have been dedicated to planning for identified field development opportunities to support future production volumes.
The growing electricity demand in Tanzania has led to an increase in gas supply requirements. In response to this, we formally requested the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation to initiate the process of extending our development license in accordance with the terms of the Production Sharing Agreement. Extending the license will allow Orca to continue optimizing existing facilities, boost well and reservoir performance, and ensure a reliable and sustainable supply of natural gas within Tanzania's energy framework. During March 2024, a preliminary planning meeting was held with the Government Negotiating Committee to discuss the timing around negotiations. As we enter this critical period, I would like to emphasize the urgent need for all parties involved to engage in agreeing on a path forward to license extension.
2024 remains a critical year for Orca. We are prepared to commence several near-term operational projects, but there are a number of outstanding commercial matters that need to be addressed, in addition to the relevant parties involved agreeing a path towards a license extension. The Board and Senior Management recognize the importance of reliable and sustainable domestic gas production in Tanzania, so achieving further commercial development in the near term is imperative to progressing our operational work programmes. We will keep all our stakeholders updated as the year continues, updating the market as appropriate.β 1. Jay Lyons, Chief Executive Officer
" There is a risk that the Company may not be able to convert Tanzanian shillings to hard currencies, such as US dollars, in the future as and when required. It is not known when the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania will be remedied, if ever." 1. 2023 Orca Energy Group Annual Report
Whilst producing at 121.8 MMscf/d, Orca Energy Group lost ($0.02/sh) in Q4. Look up the large currency exchange loss. If Orca Energy Group is unable to generate a profit, it raises the question of how Aminex could possibly be expected to do so.
Scirocco is finished and Wentworth has given up. Both Orca Energy Group and Aminex are being squeezed.
" The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." 1. Niels Bohr
Highlights of the week
" Aminex is a well-run business" optrade
Aminex has no say or sway over anything. There is nothing to run.
" sitting on huge reserves " optrade
Contingent reserves aren't worth a wooden nickel.
"and having enough funds until expected cash flow receipts from sales of Ruvuma gas." optrade
Aminex currently has a negative working capital. In Q3, Orca Energy Group at 121 MMscf/d, earned $0.01/sh because of payment in TZ Shilling. That's what you can look forward to.
= = = = = = =.
The delays keep coming and the belief that the risk has subsided here lacks foundation. Some might contend that ARA will rescue the situation by providing the essential funding to avert a financial collapse of Aminex. While this may be true, there does also exist the possibility that a subsidiary of TPDC may abscond with the remnants of Aminex. ARA would not take offense to that, provided that the subsidiary is listed as a public company.
For Aminex to be of any lasting significance, it must continue to be a vital 'operator'. The complete development of Kiliwani is estimated to cost approximately US $140 million. Consequently, the odds of Aminex retaining the 'operator' status of Kiliwani is quite slim.
itβs common for companies to face significant challenges when they lose a crucial status or position. The loss of its 'operator' status will be an extremely difficult event for Aminex to overcome.
" Our sun is one of 100 billion stars in our galaxy. Our galaxy is one of billions of galaxies populating the universe. It would be the height of presumption to think that we are the only living things in that enormous immensity" 1. Carl Sagan
In a parallel universe, Aminex might retain its 'operator' status. That storyline appears extremely unlikely here.
Yes Tom, and you're clearly in the correct sub-set as you are getting very good at it.
Keep it up !
Dante's 'Nine Circles of Hell' should be expanded to 'Ten Circles of Hell'. The tenth circle would hold the generation long suffering Aminex shareholder.
Some people do like putting people into categories. I'm no expert on Stylometry though, I'm in the cut and paste subset.
So, with Aminex's 25% that's 2 TCF attributed to Aminex. Oh and then with the development licence inplace then all that resource, can be converted to ( 1P and 2P reserves) what do you make of that then Pros ?
So if the CH-1 drill is successful, we could be looking at 8 TCF of gas for the Ntorya accumulation. Gosh the mind boggles, you couldn't make it up. Lol π
As evidenced by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR"
"Ntorya -3 = CH-1. Six years waiting and counting"
Well it's a good job they didn't, because it wouldn't had been drilled in the most advantages location, the new site that has now been identified by the new 3D seismic results has given much more certainty and is targeting potentially an additional ( 4 TCF of gas ) i guess that slipped your notice Pros, yes, all eyes are going to be on the CH-1 well. Not long now π
Highlights of the week
"For a long time now AEX's fate has rested on the value it has to ARA and as long as that value value exists - they'll keep it alive.`1. SQ320
Aminex has been in the ' Progressive-Care Unit' for an extended period of time. ARA will keep it alive for now but one must not forget about TPDC. TPDC`s ambition is to split into two parts, the NewCo listed Oil & Gas part and the Regulatory part. If TPDC`s NewCo Oil and Gas part manages to mop up Aminex, that would be viewed as being quite beneficial to both TZ and ARA. The current President could gain a political edge in the 2025 election by helping TPDC displace this foreign insurgent Aminex. This political maneuver would appeal to many TZ voters.
"Again lots of positive words but so little action. Why do authorities promise something "very soon" then don't do it - doesn't sadly boost confidence in what they say versus what they do - and still we wait".1. Northern Magic
as evidenced by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
Ntorya -3 = CH-1. Six years waiting and counting.
" I could go along with your trading range especially now we are aware of the level of condensate tuat is to come with it..1. RogerJolly
More material for the next 'silly list'. Beware of the never- ending misleading information.
Repeat:
Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.
"Please God, give me strength" 1. RoJo
re: The God particle aka the 'Higgs Boson Particle'
The severe challenges faced by Aminex are comparable to the complexity involved in discovering the 'Higgs Boson Particle', despite Aminex not needing a 'Large Hadron Collider'.
= = = = = = = =
Aminex has divested the Ruvuma operator status and it has as good as lost its Kiliwani operator status. It is very much beginning to resemble Scirocco. Learn to be skeptical of their references to 'soon' or 'imminent' wordings. Any professional manager who placed a wager here is likely seeking new employment.
Beware the bs ramper whose shadow walks this stage. Know that Aminex can throw you some nasty curveballs when you think you have got it all figured out.
Dante's 'Nine Circles of Hell' should be expanded to 'Ten Circles of Hell'. The tenth circle would hold the generation long suffering Aminex shareholder.
No way, you haven't got his ear
Please God, give me strength !
So after the CH-1 well, we could be talking 8 TCF of GIIP.
Seismic RNS
"Furthermore, the new 3D seismic images a possibly even larger area of gas charged reservoir sandstones, beyond the high confidence area established by the new seismic inversion modelling. This provides for potential additional prospective gas volumes associated with the Cretaceous age sand units tested in NT-1 and NT-2 (Units 1 and 2) and for the possible existence of an as yet undrilled shallower sand unit (Unit 3), to be tested by the forthcoming Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) appraisal well later in the year. An upside aggregated GIIP volume for the Ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1, is estimated by APT to be up to 7.95 Tcf (approximated to a mean unrisked P10 GIIP)."
Oh yes I do rojo, do you realise the the CH-1 well could be proving up an additional ( 4 TCF of gas ). Yes just got to sit tight, and put up with you lot. Lol π
Not long now though
It's not strength you need BG !