We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
In answer to the last point - AEX have previous received loans from ARA and the possibility exists that this will happen again. For a long time now AEX's fate has rested on the value it has to ARA and as long as that value value exists - they'll keep it alive.
There's never been any value imputed for condensate for AEX valuations, so even if TPDC keep all of it - won't make any difference. But condensate that TZ is not producing is income foregone to them - makes any delay even more crazy.
Given the size of what is at stake you can imagine that the negotiations over every per cent between 15 and 20 are going to be protracted.
This may sound weird, but In some respects negotations for a smaller resource would likely have been concluded more quickly and be less complicated overall.
CP the seismic result showed how massive this could be. What that also means is that AEX free carry will only take them so far. More money will be needed for subsequent stages.
So this is how i see this playing out. We get the dev licence and the share price spikes off the back of PI carpet bagging.
At some point the company tells us of their subsequent drill plans and obvs the need for finance to do so. It will be at that point that the IIs will come l and will make some easy money as the SP gets closer to 10p.
As I have said for many months it is the ability of AEX to raise money via equity sales that makes this vehicle attractive to ARA.
JP I entirely agree with this line of argument.
News that ARA released is now percolating through Tanzanian media, but it could become a double edged sword for the current government.
If they are seen to have been sitting on their hands while the locals could have seen improved living standards, it won't do them much good in the polls and an asset will become a gift to the opposition.
On the other hand if there can be some tangible benefits before election day and promises of more to come - re-election becomes much easier.
The last RNS does not make any reference to 'imminent' or even 'due course'. So I am not holding my breath. Will add as people get bored though.
If and when the development licence does come through I am expecting the price to exceed 2p, so that Santos gets his payday. Plenty of fireworks compared to the past several years.
This does make some sense and it also puts into context the statement in the last RNS that the company were speaking with the Tanzanians about speeding up the pipeline.
Since words alone won't get it built, presumably they're negotiating about some tangible input.
StockCheque, the tantalising hint tht the LNG may be exported is the RNS reference to AEX being paid in shillings or dollars. I'd always taken for granted it would be shillings. Paying in $ would create FX problems for Tanzania, unless it was $ from exports.
This was in the Telegram group earlier today:
Natural gas to reach all Tanzanians
By Ismaily Kawambwa, ZanzibarJanuary 10, 2024

UNGUJA, Zanzibar: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, Dr. Biteko has said that the strategy of the Ministry of Energy is to ensure that it properly administers the Energy Policy of 2015 and to ensure that there is access to clean energy that will reach various customers with ease and price cheap.
He said that the goal of the country is to have energy that comes from various sources including the Sun, Wind, Gas and Water so that the existing Natural Gas can also be used to a large extent in other areas such as industries and homes instead of being used in large quantities in electricity and also to reduce consumption of oil.
Dr. Biteko has explained the strategies today in West District A, West Urban Region at the signing ceremony of the contract for natural gas to be produced in Ntorya area, Ruvuma block, between the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), the company ARA Petroleum of Oman and Ivory Resources of England.
He has explained that, in the Ruvuma block, the gas discovered and verified is 1.6 billion cubic feet. The signed project will be the first to be carried out in the country and will make it possible to reduce the thirst of Tanzanians to use natural gas even in areas that are far from pipeline infrastructure and thus stimulate the use of clean energy in the country.
The agreement also involved establishing relations to build natural gas infrastructure signed between TPDC and KS Energy Company, also establishing relations to build infrastructure to distribute Natural Gas with small infrastructure technology to convert Natural Gas into liquid (Mini-LNG)
"Our strategy is to change this issue of Natural Gas to be used more in electricity which is about 80 percent, we want to have a mixed energy in the country so that gas can be used in factories and homes and also reduce the dependence on oil." Said Dr. Biteko
He added that, TPDC now has a strategy that will allow for the distribution of the use of Natural Gas where the use of electricity will be 38 percent, in homes and industries will be 32 percent and 10 percent will remain in homes unlike the current situation where the use of Gas in industries and homes is 28 percent and the remaining percentage largely goes to electricity.

He has said that the Government is ready to cooperate with those investors in order to bring reliable energy to the people from various sources while citing the example of the implementation of the 50 megawatt solar project in Kishapu district, Shinyanga Region and the construction of other production, transportation and electricity distribution projects.

The ceremony of signing the agreement was also attended by Mtwara Regional Members of Parliament, the Representative of the Secretary General of the Ministry of Energy Mohamed Fakihi, the Chairm
"The presence of Western forces was far from universally popular but the country was receiving hundreds of millions of euros in annual financial aid and military assistance. That has now stopped. "
This is the problem in a nutshell isn't it?
For a country as resource-rich as Niger and which powers the French nuclear industry, it should do well enough to get a fair price for what it extracts and sells.
A reason why African countries like Burkina Faso are turning to Putin, is because they have had enough of being labelled basket cases while France reaps the benefits.