We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"experiencing a remarkable 60% increase this year alone"
35.67%
I have been talking a bit about the fact that the 21.2% stake in Arrow held by Canacol was up for sale and I am glad to see that the cross has just printed at 18.5p. Talking around I think that Canacol sold to an institutional investor and associates.
Arrow is showing a change in trajectory now that this stake from former founders Canacol Energy is now held I understand by a new group of investors lead by industry veteran and independent energy investor Gavin Wilson.
Arrow, a notable performer, had surged since its introduction to London’s Aim market in October 2021, experiencing a remarkable 60% increase this year alone. Canacol Energy then revealed its intention to sell assets due to balance sheet pressures, initiating the stake’s availability last month impacting the Arrow price.
This change of investors is likely a source of satisfaction for Arrow, as the stake had been casting a shadow on the market, causing shares to dip from recent highs. With the stake having been hanging over the market, this clearance today, and to a highly respected investor is clearly good news.
Chief Investment Officer Gavin Wilson’s extensive experience, coupled with his involvement in other major invested companies such as Afentra, TAG Oil, and PetroTal Corp., further solidifies the credibility of this move. He has built up a reputation for supporting smaller exploration companies and offering expertise in the sector, often taking a board seat, that results in turn-around results for world class energy investments that have latent potential. The placement signals confidence in Arrow’s potential.
Arrow has been a favoured stock of mine for a while and has been on the Bucket List almost since it came to the London market in 2021. Having fallen from the recent peak and with stability back in the market place I suspect that the shares are now looking very attractive.
https://www.malcysblog.com/
Somebody has already made a very nice profit!
What a chump! I missed a rare opportunity at midday. And we all knew it was imminent.
Well the good news is that we have gone up since the very large sale, now we know what has been pushing the price down for a while. Canacol needed the money rather desperately for their business (nothing to do with AXL) so it was likely to happen and is now out of the way without to much damage. Onwards and upwards.
Canacol Energy's 60,072,807 shares have been transferred to a new holder
Can only be Canacol Energy Ltd. selling, I can't think of any other holder with that size holding. Something in the wind we should be aware of?
Couple of rather large sales just gone through :(
It is thanks to MT on ADVFN that I become aware of LaLuna shale characteristics and composition . . . well worth study if anyone is considering wider investment in AXL. And political weight / leanings have to be reckoned with.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818121000096#:~:text=The%20La%20Luna%20Formation%20%28Albian-Coniacian%29%20is%20a%20series,periods%20of%20oceanic%20anoxia%20in%20an%20epicontinental%20sea.
Several papers appear on the subject.
This is interesting: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-allies-plan-more-iran-sanctions-israel-war-cabinet-meet-again-2024-04-17/
Be interesting to see if Israel dares to attack a country that actually fights back. Oil to hit $150 a barrel? Maybe Biden has done a deal with Netanyahu…they’re both up to their necks in genocide.
Hazbeen,
I wish for world peace and plenty for all of humanity. However, the truth has to be faced. Russia has won the Ukraine war, yet Zelensky may still do something crazy like repeat the attacks on the Russian oil facilities. Similarly, Israel may attack Iran directly. We have China challenging US hegemony and god knows what else. Having some oil is a bit like holding gold at times of geopolitical change.
We’ve come very close to nuclear war in the past. If Israel manages to someone embroil the US in a war with Iran, Russia won’t let Iran be destroyed like Iraq. Even the increasing likelihood of it happening following rash action by Netanyahu will send the oil price flying up. And of course, Netanyahu has shown that over the past 6 months he is not a rational actor.
Which of us would commit genocide and use Biblical language to justify it? The most worrying thing is that Biden and even our own (unelected) PM Sunak are still backing Israel v. Iran.
Do not ever want to see $150 oil
Will have huge global implications economically
Any Middle East be be dire for all of us
So do not wish for high oil prices directly or indirectly
Extrader, I'm just calling it as I see it. Israel won't be sorry to see Trump win and this conflict has been caused, deepened and prolonged by Israel with the aim of dragging the US into a war with Iran that enables it to build a 'greater' Israel. I agree it's not logical and damages US national interests but Israel is a like a mad dog that is out of control and the Israel lobby has even more power in the US than in the UK. Committing genocide to maintain Apartheid and steal land isn't normal behaviour, is it? (Okay, the US got away with it with the Native Americans as did the Russians centuries ago - but this is 2024 and we can see it live streamed and it has been recorded by the ICJ).
Forget the mainstream media analysis. These are the same people who told us the Ukraine war was all Russia's fault and that Ukraine was going to win NATO's proxy war v. Russia.
If the Israelis are stupid enough to provoke Iran again they'll enter a world of pain and oil will rise. Don't forget this was just a slap - no civilians killed and full warning war given by Iran. Even so, missiles got through hitting military targets. The despots running Saudi, Jordan and Egypt owe their allegiance to the US, but the people are with Palestine. I doubt they will dare go to war v. Iran in support of Israel.
The oil price has to rise if the market thinks Israel will dare to attack Iran directly. Israel will probably do something as it believes it has to maintain 'deterrence', scaring its neighbours into submission. However, this hubris is leading it to disaster.
And I forgot China, which benefits from uninterrupted oil flow from the Middle East.....
Where does the fact that Saudi joined the West (and Jordan) in repulsing the Iranian attack on Israel fit into your world view?
No-one is interested in super-expensive oil, which damages Biden's (cough) election prospects ...and benefits Russia.
'It's complicated'.
ATB
Where does the fact that Saudi joined the West (and Jordan) in repulsing the Iranian attack on Israel fit into your world view?
No-one is interested in super-expensive oil, which damages Biden's (cough) election prospects ...and benefits Russia.
'It's complicated'.
ATB
The US confirms at least 9 ballistic missiles hit two Israeli military bases in Negav. If anyone is trying to save face it is Netanyahu and Biden. Just like Russia, Iran doesn't mess around. I just wish the UK was on the right side of history on this one.
If Israel does dare strike Iran again we surely get $150 oil. But as Biden is reluctant, I am wondering if we get a false flag attack (like US blowing up Nord Stream and blaming it on Russia) to try and get US on board for an Iran war. If I was the US I'd put my embassies on high alert.
It was a pre warned attack to save face
That’s why the missiles take out so promptly
It will calm down now
Just political games for now
Well, Iran struck as promised. Israeli 'deterrence' is now dead and even the US doesn't want to mess with Iran directly. The same geniuses that thought Ukraine could win NATO's proxy war v. Russia are trying to call the attack a victory for Israel. Look a little deeper and you'll learn that despite all Israel/US high-tech anti-missile defences, Iran took out some military targets.
I believe Israel will continue on its reckless path to a wider war as Netanayahu and his zealots will want to restore deterrence. Bull oil price case therefore remains. Views?
Apparently, US has warned Israel to expect an attack from Iran within 24-48 hours. It has taken Netanyahu some time but it looks as if he is going to get his wish. I think my US$150 oil price prediction looks possible from here. FOMO Friday is upon us.
Building for the next leg up, 23.35p equivalent in the UK.
These guys get top oil price paid and are on $55 per barrel net backs.
15 wells and including the big hitters horizontal
Could do with a nice RNS informing everybody that the horizontal drill has started. AXL you owe us that after last weeks shocker!
Bridgedogg1,
1) You are missing the fact that cash is set to increase dramatically throughout the year due to production rising (from the upcoming horizontal drilling in particular).
2) Comparing AXL and I3E is comparing apples and oranges. One is 99% oil with high netbacks/bbl and the other is predominantly gas and NGLS with lower netbacks and a different fiscal jurisdiction (tax, royalties etc), so of course if you make a simplistic comparison of total boe production it won't make sense. Also I3E have debt and AXL are in a net cash position (I hold both shares btw).
IJWT:
1) 3k bopd does not netback $4.5 a month, because you are only quoting the field netback. There is then admin and some taxation (potentially) to come off that before you get to bottom line after tax cash flow
2) MA said in a recent interview we're doing around $2.8m cash flow per month
3) Don't forget part of AXL production is gas in Canada, which is at best break even currently due to poor AECO gas price
My memory indicates 3k bopd nets back to around $4.5m monthly. Recall netbacks being c.$50 per barrel.
So 10k bopd is $175m p.a. setback, FCF which even on a stingy multiple of 3x is way above current MCAP.
3k bopd netback of $4.5m per month is $54m p.a. so the MCAP is around 1.5x FCF on a backward looking basis which is pretty poor.