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Https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/arrow-exploration-the-low-cost-producer-positioned-for-significant-growth-in-the-llanos-basin
Very informative. Recommended listening. Marshall ranks very high on lucidity.
talk now of maybe 5 horizontals this year with all total 15 wells being drilled. no doubt that some will be exploration drills so might not find oil but disregarding the horizontals if they all were to come in at 500bopd that would be 7000 odd bopd plus the 2500bopd that we currently produce and we are nearly at 10000bopd. back of the *** packet calculations but they are making $52 per barrel after costs and tax that's near as dammit 190 million dollars a year. that is a considerable whack for a small company with no debt.
Latest presentation out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=birHKCOleQ8
Love this company, no drama, moving at speed (15 wells this year) and fully self funding eg they don’t need to raise money every couple of months. Very much under the radar at the moment but has huge potential for the future.
Https://newsdirect.com/news/arrow-exploration-announces-update-on-exploration-activity-on-cn-4-and-cn-5-wells-248827829
(I guess everyone has already seen/listened to the above)
Notably most of the enthusiasm is on the other bb . . .
Having got to grips with structures (in a desktop sense) there is every likelihood the horizontal programme getting off to a decent start. Pooling around the fault zones - and migration - is an unknown at present but @ 560 m risk of wandering above or below the payzone is not too great.
A Calgary CEO, who corresponds regularly, has remarked on the difficulty, although lateral length was 1,500 m in the first instance. They rectified the shortcoming on the second horizontal.
Early days in the Llanos for AXL. The acreage promises much. Retail investors here look to be more receptive than on the TSX.
Anyone care to suggest a price for AXL if the oil price rises to $150+? Israel seems determined to widen it genocidal campaign by invading Lebanon, which will spark off a major Middle East war. It has been reported that it has put March 15 as the date. The IDF has apparently denied it, which means it is probably true: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-deny-lebanese-report-on-march-15-war-ultimatum/
Super-excited to see the new report which is due out before the end of March and I think we will move through our current 52 week high of 26.25p which was set last May / June. I know Arrow have to draw a line in the sand as to when the new reserves are calculated which based on 31/12/2023 but it’s a shame we can not count the 2 wells drilled to date in 2024 - especially CN5.
Tick tock…
Item
a) Number of perforations based on norm for frack intervals of ~80 m. The first lateral is planned at 560 m
b) Drilling seems to proceed at a rapid rate about 300 m daily which is impressive. (I understood MA was not going to rush with every morsel on progress in future.)
c) I was slow pulling the trigger on AXL having first examined it when ~12/14p. All credit goes to a couple of ADVFN posters, whose analytics have been exceptional
d) AXL presentations are very informative although the pix on formations/geology are relatively indistinct to most of us, e.g. faults/fractures are not well defined
e) I was unaware of MA's horizontal drilling expertise until a fortnight ago
Interesting Viable why do you think they will only perforate 6/7 fracks?
Long overdue, quality play.
Let’s hope for a strong CN5 production RNS this week with >300boepd. That along with CN6, OP3&4 could well take us beyond 4,000boed as we quickly approach SPUD of first HZ well which we should hopefully see happen in early Q2.
Although the detail is absent, expectations on high yields should be avoided: there are likely to be no more than 6-7 frack stages on first two laterals. (The longest Bretaña horizontal was, I think, 2,200 m with possibly >40 spaced perforations).
MT on ADVFN, by using PTAL as a marker, enunciates my own grounds for taking up a fair amount of stock. Although Llanos characteristics are different to the Vivian sands with more than one payzone the potential outlined by MA is justified. When horizontals come into the frame production could be more than doubled.
Some of Dana Coffield's(deceased) 2013 GTE comments have been revisited. He proved to be right on #95 even if the process took longer than forecast. It is also noted that a reinjection well preceded the exploratory well which was significant if an anticipated high water cut is present. High psi values together with w/c are a bonus for well longevity
re: Mateguafa Oeste & Capullo - One would have thought AXL has more than enough to be going on with at present. Am still digging around for Colombian geology reports but also use previous knowledge on AMER's Platanillo field..
P29 of the Feb presentation says under Mateguafa Oeste & Capullo Prospects "Land acquisition underway, with environmental studies to follow" - anyone have any insight into this?
H-S - quite the opposite mate. Marshall and the team are running their ruler over a few M&A opportunities for us to buy. It seems likely they will buy with cash and debt (RBL) but no issue of equity. With our very experienced management team along with in-Country drilling teams we are in a great position. Have you seen how many rigs are available at bargain basement prices.
Happy days here and we will soon be beyond our 52 week high price of 26p.
Good luck matey.
How nice is it to have a company that is not looking for cash from its investors every single year! It is now self funding and is aiming for 15 new wells this year alone, brilliant. If they can pull off the horizontal drills and achieve 1000bopd from each we will be laughing.
Biggest 'danger' for us is for Parex or someone else to come with a bid for say 30-35 p and get us on the cheap. They will claim the usual stuff of offer price of 50 or 80% above closing price etc .etc. Malcy has implied in his last comments that something like this might not be surprising
. . . it answers many questions, including length of first lateral. Have added again.
https://arrowexploration.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Arrow-Exploration-February-2024-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
Replace the *’s with the following but take out the spaces:-
www . research - tree . com
https://*********************/media/audio-note-arrow-exploration-cn-4-and-cn-5-well-results-22-02-2024/id/20207/26412340-f7bc-43d7-8d80-48baf6d0e6de
Let's keep it boring, slow and steady boys!
To those thinking this will drop back down to the 18s, I have one word: 'Netanyahu'. I'm increasingly convinced Israel will attack Lebanon and set off the mother of all Middle East wars. That has to lead to a spike in oil prices and we'll rise as a result.
Unless oil has a spectacular crash, I think it will consolidate above 20 and move sideways back into the bollinger, as a lot of people will buying to see what happens with CN5 and the reserve update.