The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
CYB - totally agree. Am tired of hearing about how many African people still cook by burning wood! I want to know far more about the tactical BAU / day to day stuff that SAVE is doing. Yes ESG is important but give me 80% on growing production along with FCF ambitions and 20% on ESG. I won’t be bothering to attend another AGM. I think I’ve been to more than the CEO.
Is:- ‘up to 1GW+’ a contradiction? Ha ha ha…
Although I don’t ascribe any value for our renewable projects ATM, I would be pleased to see another deal or two being announced which would take us beyond 1GW. And let’s not underestimate how large 1GW is. In the UK for example it would power 700,000 houses using average power consumption.
I still think AK canned the 1,500boepd of trucked oil in Niger due to our ESG profile.
Does anybody on here know their carbon footprint? I generate 13 tonnes of CO2 per annum and buy Carbon Credits each month to offset 20 tonnes. So I am 7 tonnes per annum to the good…
Z - as ever that’s a brilliant post and obviously you demonstrate great forward thinking. I don’t recollect reading your post b fore but at least I’ve not dreamt it and was on the right track with my thinking. It was the re-read of the SCAP note that made me think something could be bubbling along in the background.
Will be definitely disappointing that when we eventually get a fulsome update that there is not at least one really nice piece of big news for us to take it.
Am getting more positive about a decent SP even without SS when we resume trading. I’ll be very disappointed if we come back at anything less than 30p.
Thanks very much Sinopec for the $40m discount you gave us for your interests in Stubb Creek. If the truth be known it’s quite a lot more than that as the $40m was only based on $70 Brent.
But as a thank you, we’ll bring you into our Niger PSC’s and reciprocate the discount you gave us to what you pay for a share of our ARB acreage.
Remember where you heard this first…
What I’d really like to know (and I can’t find out as IR will not comment on it) is how much revenue has been generated from Doba oil and TOTco / COTCo transportation costs (dividends) and where it currently sits? If it is all being held in trust, there must be quite a huge figure being held and ready to be paid out on any ICC awards.
By the way NGN down another 50 points to 1,147. A decent improvement from the all time low of 1,624 only a few weeks ago.
I’m just thinking that our risk profile is a bit too high for my liking and taking a cash injection for a partial sale and relinquishing operatorship would reduce our overall profile and and that our debt could be significantly reduced. Yes, less potential future revenues but surely taking smaller pieces of the pies has to be an option.
Russian troops arrive in Niger as military agreement begins https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68796359
As the West are clearly out of favour, would it be an idea to sell a big % of our interests in the ARB. Maybe sell 50% to somebody like CNPC for a very large sum and transfer operator status to them. Then just take 50% of all future production…
We know small distributions have previously been pencilled in but luck has not gone our way on that front. I’d have seriously expected one if SS closed but now with zero production at the moment I guess we would have to wait a while longer yet even if the deal closed. On the ICC cases, we could well win the awards and maybe North of $500m but how and when would SAVE receive the dosh and as some have mentioned, how many appeal challenges are allowed and how long will they take?
Can’t wait to see a comprehensive update on paper so that we can really see what’s going on. I still get stuff from IR and had another call last week but nothing tangible to mention to be fair. Chewing over old cud again but this is a taste of what we hope to see during the course of 2024:-
CPF to complete in Nigeria
New customers added and existing ones grown on the Accugas network
Will we add more stranded gas
I hope to see a renewable deal announced and hydrocarbon M&A in Nigeria too
Complete the Stubb Creek deal in Nigeria - hopefully by September as per guidance
Complete oil test in Niger and first oil of 1.5kboepd to commence
35m 2C to reclassify as 2P
New drilling program in Niger or introduce partner - minimum income of $250m
Update on 4 x ICC cases - highly unlikely TY but I still hope to see one
Debt to be reduced to below $300m by YE and to be refinanced
Progress to be made on renewable deals and as Z mentioned could this be split off as it’s own entity
So a lot to get our teeth in to but unfortunately, the one jewel in our crown remains to be gas in Nigeria ATM
Watch this space…
The only positive I take is that the longer the suspension, the more chance we have at returning higher than suspended price even if no M&A should occur - apart from SC of course.
Accugas debt deal getting closer to happening if fx continues to improve
And Accugas debt hopefully a lot less than we were last informed of. Was it $434m with every $20m reduction worth 1.2p?
I’d hope to see net debt well south of $400m next time we see a new number.
CPF should be complete within the next 2 / 3 months and let’s see what’s lined up for incremental production being added.
My main concern is not losing SS as a entity but going into back to back suspensions due to small MC relative to a new M&A deal.
What’s going on in Niger? I am expecting a positive update soon on that front.
I still think the last RNS (although mandated by AIM) is to put pressure on SS Gov signature pre the oil conference at the end of June. The Gov (IMHO) would struggle to stand up and say we are open for business if our deal has not been ratified by then.
Seems like current production is still a big fat zero in SS ATM so the headline figure will not be reducing from current production but I hope we have negotiated the headline figure of $1.25bn down a chunk due to the increased risk profile of getting BOD’s to market!
I can’t believe how little news we have seen on our other business interests excluding SS and CC…(where is all the CC revenue currently going)
Are we over 12 months in to the ICC cases being initiated with guidance saying ‘expected to take 12 - 18 months? Update soon - a slight possibility…
Would a Gabon deal be classed as an RTO (striaght into another back to back suspension) with SS success? And what is the definitive point of SS being classed by the stock market as done in order to have a far bigger market cap. Would it be at the point of AD being issued or on final Gov sign off post AD and shareholder vote, should that be the timeline?
W/O SS success I assume we would go back to back into another suspension if we were to take on the Gabon deal and who knows when trading would resume. I hope the NOMAD and stockmarket will call time on this roundabout at some point in the near future and enforce us to list again. I hope to see some context around this tomorrow, if SAVE keep their promise to update us during the course of the next week - which is by 7.00am in the morning!
The last thing I’d want would be issuing equity unless it was at a significant premium to 26.35p. I would not be adverse to issuing Petronas 20% of our company in shares as a part payment for the balance we owe from the $1.25bn - economic interest payment. Let’s say the balancing payment at deal closure is $400m.
With 1.412bn shares fully diluted we would need to issue Petronas with 353m shares giving us a new shares in issue number of 1.765bn. For the 353m shares I would want to see a minimum of 40p which is 50.4c @ fx 1.26. This would equate to $178m coming of the $400m leaving $222m to be paid for from future production.
On another note I was looking through all my transactions on SAVE while by yet pool this afternoon. I hold them in various accounts and what a crazy trip I have been on:-
First purchase 42p July 2015
Continued to buy all the way down with my lowest buy price 8p in March 2020
Bought well over half my holding sub 10p
Continued to by all the way up and got spiked in June 2022 @ 40p
Continued to buy all the way down to Nov 2022
Bought 1m in the 23’s in Nov 2022 anticipating a decent rise upon Chad closure
God knows what we will re-emerge at and to be honest, the way I feel at the moment, I’d be more than happy if we came back at 26.35p. Yes this would be disappointing after all we have hoped for, but I still do fear coming back in the teens and having to wait a few more years before true value is realised. However, the recent deal in Nigeria does give me some comfort and let’s all hope we see a descent rise this year due to what we could possibly achieve in Niger. On top of those, the ICC cases and debt restructure could give significant leg-ups if and when we see positive outcomes on them both.
South Sudan Acquisition Update
Further to the Company's announcement on 1 February 2024, the Company confirms that it remains suspended from trading on AIM, with a revised cancellation date of 17 May 2024, whilst it continues to advance the various workstreams, including receipt of in-country approvals, required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan.
The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.
Yesterday’s rise was down to Russia announcing that they were cutting production again in order to meet their Opec commitments, read and repeat…
Also around 150/- b/d is off the market as they still can’t use the export route through Sudan due to the Civil War there. Finally in the USA, retail gasoline averaged $3.523 which is up 7 cents on the week, 27.4c on the month and 10.2c y/y ahead of the Easter holiday.
TiL - great work again matey. I’m away for 3 weeks now so will only be popping on now and again and will only post if I can’t resist commenting on hot news LOL
GLA & CIAO
PS I see a 50/50 chance of being out of suspension by the time I return.
PPS - I would hope or lat published net debt of $443m has reduced by at least $60m which in turn would, in theory add 3.6p to our SP. Even with a failed SS deal and the ‘Chad debacle’, I really can’t see us returning
Down another 50 basis points from 1,420 earlier today to 1,370 and was 1,624 at the beginning of the week. Let’s hope this momentum continues and I wonder what number AK is looking for before he pushes the Accugas debt refinance button?