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TY Z - Would be great to see after all the years, having drilled 5 from 5. With everything going on in the company we will get good news at some point but after the Coup in Niger, I was not expecting this to come home to please us TY. With very little if anything priced in ATM for Niger, it would be great to see your minimum as per examples above but around 7p on to the SP. With the Nigeria compression project due to complete within the next 4 months, getting closer to ICC decisions, SS hopefully with AD sometime in the next 5 weeks, renewables as another possible hydrocarbon acquisition we have a lot to play for. I have a few tasty questions outstanding with IR but they have been a bit thin on the ground over recent times due to sick absences. I wont even mention the DRF deal which we all so eagerly await.
Hi Z - quick question if I may:-
If Niger came on initially at 1.5kboepd transported via the new pipeline and moved 35mboe from 2C to 2P what would you value that at to us. And additionally what would you value it at 5kboepd?
My concern here is that we are quoting 35mboe 2C even before any well tests. Hope to god Amdigh + the other 4 do commercially produce.
Do we have about 2.8bn boe risked recoverable here to shoot for?
Obviously we’d have to fork out the CAPEX and construct our tie-in pipeline at Agadem. But David Clarkson told me this could be done in less than 3 months (could already be done for all we know) as it’s a very simple, modular, plug and play design.
Back to the good old days convo LOL
H-S - quite the opposite mate. Marshall and the team are running their ruler over a few M&A opportunities for us to buy. It seems likely they will buy with cash and debt (RBL) but no issue of equity. With our very experienced management team along with in-Country drilling teams we are in a great position. Have you seen how many rigs are available at bargain basement prices.
Happy days here and we will soon be beyond our 52 week high price of 26p.
Good luck matey.
In Marshalls last interview with Malcy, he mentioned that a new reserves report would be issued around mid-Feb. Today I sought clarification of this. Great we will see one soon and I cant wait fir a future reserves report being released that will include the gems that were alluded to in todays RNS:-
Hi xxx
A year end 2023 reserve report is being worked on right now. Expectations are that it will be released in the first half of March. It will include all wells drilled to December 31, 2023.
PART 2
The CEO describes the company as having ‘material reserves additions and production from further development at Carrizales Norte’ as well as drilling the Ubaque reservoir with conventional horizontal exploitation which he expects to lead to material production, cash flow and reserves growth. As a final bonus he reminds shareholders that there are additional pay zones ‘currently behind pipe which will provide further opportunities for production and reserves increases in the future.
I have been a fan of Arrow since it came to London and now that I have seen it at home, so to speak I am more so, its team from top to bottom is exceptional, its reputation in Bogota, where I had the opportunity to meet NED’s, competitors, regulators and of course the staff.
My Target Price has been 50p per share for some time, I am very happy to stay with that number and although it has yet to approach that, I am confident I am not being over generous, at some time Arrow will be the subject of corporate activity. I will writing more about my visit in due course, Arrow deserves more oxygen from the investing public…
This a truly game-changing announcement and made more interesting as I was out in the field at the time the CN-4 well was drilling and the highly professional team were doing yet another excellent job. The well, targeting the Ubaque formation found 29 feet of net oil pay and an ESP was inserted after perforation.
The well has been successful on more than one front, it has confirmed the company’s understanding of the Ubaque reserve base and for the potential and ‘commensurate’ horizontal drilling opportunities which as CEO Marshall Abbott said in my recent interview were significantly will be considerably more profitable.
So Arrow are carefully managing production as they always have to ensure efficient reservoir management, indeed at this well they didn’t test the C7 or the Gacheta formations as the Ubaque was a priority which leaves them plenty of opportunity to return at a later date for more wells and recompletions.
The CN-5 well spudded just after I left Bogota but the prospect was a really interesting one, the Carrizales Noroeste prospect and it logged 45 feet of Ubaque oil pay to the base of the sand. This prospect was another one of significant interest which I spoke to the CEO in the interview about and his expectations have been realised. ‘CN-5 has confirmed that there is a stratigraphic component to the trapping mechanism in the Ubaque reservoir as it extends to the west and is therefore expected to add significantly to the existing Ubaque oil reserves, and the well will also be completed for production before long.
There is much more to come from Arrow, the CN-6 well will be spudded when CN-5 goes onto production and it will target the C7 Carbonera where 3-D seismic shows ‘considerable running room for C7 development drilling within the sizeable primary Carrizales Norte structure’.
In addition to this the company is undergoing a substantial work programme across all areas of the portfolio. Three pads are under construction, at “CN B” where it is likely that the first horizontal well will be drilled in Q2, the Matteguafa Attic pad and the Baquiano road and pad. The Company expects to bring in a second rig for deployment at the CN B pad and a third rig for use at the Matteguafa Attic pad.
I was lucky enough to visit all these facilities and more, the RCE production facility of course and the three described above, all are in various stages of construction but it shows that the company is gearing up its portfolio for what is a very exciting future indeed.
Arrow has a very strong balance sheet with no debt, highly supportive shareholders and exceptional management. Indeed whilst spending plenty of time in their local office I found a group of talented and hard working oil and gas professionals all diligent in their own fields and specialities.
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/cn-4-and-cn-5-results-7eo1gky7c3vm9fy.html
He could be prolonging the issue of the AD until a done deal pending SH final approval and then signing an SPA for the ‘2nd deal’. My rationale for this is on the assumption that the ‘2nd deal’ would not constitute a RTO on the enlarged company with SS included but would constitute a RTO without SS in the bag.
Anyway, whatever is going on, the balance payment for SS is reducing by the day and Nigeria is bank shed loads of cash.
I won’t say what I want to happen next, but you know my views.
PS I was first told that AK wants to issue AD with Gov approval at the AGM.
FB Article:
South Sudan Oil Shutdown by Sudan Rapid Support Forces.
February 12, 2024.
Tut Gatluak Manime, the Presidential Advisor for National Security, has now put South Sudan and the South Sudanese at the road to destruction.
Oil of South Sudan is shut down now in Station 3 and Staion 4 by Sudan Rappid Support Forces (RSF) this morning.
The reason for the RSF shutdown is that Tut Gatlauk Manime insulted RSF as nilitias during the Saturday, February 10, 2024 consultative meeting in Juba.
All the Sudanese political forces that are opposed to the RSF and allies to Gen. Burhan were invited by Presidential Advisor Tut Gatluak Manime to abuse and insult RSF and its leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).
Tut Gatluak Manime denied the FCC and Former PM Hamdok and all the civil societies to come to Juba unless they agree to work with Gen. Burhan.
All the Taqqaddum Groups are Sudanese who do not want NCP and former Islamists.
Tut Gatluak Manime must be given another assignment away from the Sudanese file before South Sudanese collapsed economically.
Thanks Scotpak - from what you say, does this mean that the further devaluation of the NGN should have no impact in SAVE’s endeavours to refinance the debt. To be honest, I do struggle to get my head around this part of the business.
And why does AK constantly mention the ‘true-up’ process, inferring that it’s a very good insurance process which works in our favour against any currency fx swings?
massive long shot and probably wishful thinking. but save could possibly involved but acting under nda restrictions to keep their name out of the public domain.
whether it’s due to the icc cases or ss deal or both, save are noticeably keeping a very low profile and only putting the very bare minimum out via rns & nothing via tweets. last one was over 3 months ago on 6th november and they’ve not even announced who they’re sponsoring in paris this summer (if you know, you know)!
there’s definitely a company (companies) missing from the gabon line-up. could it be us but undercover at the moment for whatever reason.
lastly, unlike a few others, if we see a further extension, i still think they will tell us nothing else until they feel compelled to or our nomad forces them to.
horrible being in the dark so much for so long, but i honestly don’t think about this as much as i used to. it is what it is and there’s jack **** we can do about it!
Hi All
Looking forward to the next RNS re SS immediately after the Easter W/E at the very latest. Who knows, could be bit before then and will we get any RNS’s on any other subjects prior to then?
In the meantime, earlier this week I sent a few questions to IR which heave been acknowledged but my contact this time has been away this week so I’m hoping for a reply next week. I’ve covered the USD - NGN issue in what I sent.
Nice W/E to one and all and catch you soon.
PS O/T you may wish to look at AXL which is my 2nd largest holding and has excellent prospects. Only 285m shares, zero debt 0 to 3.2k production and a fully funded 15 well drilling program for 2024. BOD have masses of expewriance in building and selling small O&G companies and Arrow is looking like the CEO’s swan song.
As ever DYOH but this is really exciting me at the mo at 20p and has an excellent chance of 3 to 4 bagging within 24 months max.
HDT - this is looking very good to test the 26p 52 week high over the next few months as we approach the results of the first HZ well mid year. Good little updates on Twitter if you’re not already following. I have 7 figure holding here and added more at 20p today. I’ll continue to buy up to 26p and then I expect a minimum of a 3 bagger from there in 12 to 24 months from now.
The could well sell the company when we reach 10k boepd.
Re your question from EHL over yonder earlier today:-
An update on CN-4 will be issued shortly. The next well to be drilled will be CN-5, followed by CN-6.
We also expect to prepare an update for the OP wells.
Thanks
Joe
Listened to that again as wasn’t really concentrating the first time, I’ve never been very good at multi-tasking ha ha ha
On a serious note:-
Why did they chat about SAVE first with all the other companies they could have discussed?
He kept on so strongly about companies paying dividends but we don’t pay one (YEY)!
He seemed super-certain that we would be paying a divi in the next year or so!
He said up front on the interview he expected the deal to close in the next few weeks!
PM are our 4th largest II with 92m shares (7%) and will be far more up to speed than us.
All in all, the fact that AIM have allowed a further 2 months extension (after the very tight 5 week extension including the Christmas break) along with the points above make me feel a bit more confident about the SS deal completing. FWIW I now think we have a better than average chance of success here. That said, it’s all down to in-country approvals IMO. If we can get those sign offs, I definitely believe AK will deliver on the rest of the stuff including finance - i f we end up needing to borrow any.
Not getting too excited yet though and even if we complete, we still have the risk of the war in Sudan going on along the export pipeline route.
GLA and I genuinely wish all the best of luck, especially those of us who originally bought in when we only held 2 PSC’s in Niger. How things have changes since IPO back in 2014. And thinking about it, it’s amazing that we have not yet drilled on of our own wells and sold a single barrel of oil!!!
We know we have to get another RNS by 2/4/24 (7 weeks on Tuesday) at the latest but how many, and on what subjects will we receive before then? Who knows we may even see the AD and admission before April…
OB - thanks for the link. Just goes to show that PM (and I assume other II’s) are in this predominantly for the potential field more than for the potential capital growth. And specifically around the Nigerian asset. When speaking about the SS deal he says something like:-
“Frankly I don’t mind if it completes or not”
I find this comment a bit defensive to be honest but it does underpin the strong views on here of Z, PF, K and TIL (amongst others) that Accugas is very much the engine / jewel in the crown at the moment and even the Nigerian assets alone will be throwing of more cash that we could have ever hoped for only 2/3 years ago.
Scotpak - what are your latest views on the fx movements of the Naira and the possible effects on our debt refinance package? Could it be that if SAVE are so confident of SS closing that we do not conduct a long term debt refinance package for Accugas and simply aim to pay it off from the FCF thrown off by the Petronas RTO deal?
(Great to see the effective date of 1/1/22 mentioned as we have not seen that in print before. This date was mentioned to me by David Clarkson at the AGM but he did say he was not certain of it which I found very strange for a director to say - although he is definitely only a back seat passenger nowadays.)
01/02/2024, 11:59 am
Photo of Ed Reed
© Supplied by Savannah EnergySavannah Energy team in red overalls stand in the desert, in front of drilling rig
Picture shows; Savannah's drilling team. Niger. Supplied by Savannah Energy Date; Unknown
Savannah Energy has pushed back closing on its South Sudan acquisition yet again, although Shore Capital has set out some grounds for positivity.
The operator said it remained suspended from trading on London’s AIM. It has pushed back the cancellation date to April 2 this year.
However, Savannah said it is still making progress on the various parts of the deal. These include “in-country approvalsâ€, which are required to complete the deal for Petronas’ assets.
Shore Capital analyst Craig Howie said it can be “realistically expected†that Savannah publish its AIM admission document within this time.
Savannah announced the deal in December 2022. It agreed to pay $1.25 billion to Petronas for the Malaysian company’s assets in South Sudan. At that point, it aimed to publish its admission document within the first half of 2023.
Shore’s Howie said “we continue to sense that Savannah is pressing on to ensure that this can occur as soon as possible – noting AIM’s granting of the further extension announced todayâ€.
Once the documents are published, he said, it will be easier to assess the South Sudan. In the meantime, Howie said, “we continue to forecast material organic revenues and cash flowâ€.
Petronas has a 40% stake in Block 3/7, 30% in Block 1/2/4 and 67.9% in Block 5A. In 2019-21, the Petronas unit reported an average post-tax profit of $130.6 million.
The deal has an effective date of January 1, 2022. Thus, while the delays are inconvenient, cash flow from the assets will go to paying down the final price paid by Savannah.