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I read this too @molovtovkid and a little smile lit up my face. Let’s just hope that it turns into a big smile later down the road. Have a great day all.
I think many was hoping for a good result so we could have high volume to clear out the remaining 46 million warrants. Seems like the volume will go into sells today. My entrance around 9-10p got much closer today. Its wrong to call CN3 a duster since there is 98% water, but a really really poor result. And people are talking about 8-10k production next year LOL. How are they gonna keep the SP up when there is 46 million warrants expiring in 1-2 months and the volume in Canada is 30k and they are drilling water wells?
'there are firm indications that the reserves additions will transform Arrow into a much more significant company.'....yeahhhhh baby!
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AXL/arrow-announces-cn-3-well-update/16113885
Golden Cross & now confirmation Saudi will extend cuts to the end of the year, the clear aim is $100 oil.
Due this week.
The company is pulling in approx $1.5m US a week at the moment with high 80s brent pricing.
Not you Mr. F. but I'm highlighting how it works to the 10p shell......30 minutes later to my post, options traders now eye up $90-100 oil..........charts mean as much if not more than fundamentals. A Golden cross in oil usually means at least 6-12 months of uptrend.
Bangrak, ouch! that silly 10p idea was shellguy no me :O)
Unless you mean 10p upside to 27p to the trendline drawn on my chart?
Mr F, Brent chart downtrend March June 2022 line, bots will see this & the golden cross about to happen & trade upwards. Good luck with 10p idea on this break.
Hmmm … I’m sorry Mr F, but for me no EV has the “soul” of a hairy internal combustion engine with a burble exhaust, whether it’s 2 or 4 wheels.
1) not all warrants will be exercised - I say maybe another 50%
2) CEO has already alluded to look into supporting warrant sellers out
Via I expect finding a large buyer willing to take up the shares . I have noticed we have
A two way trading pattern recently
The technicals look very good for aby upside as the MACDs are finally in green, the RSI is behind us and we are above a key trend line:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VO2d4j4h/
Forum activity has increased and the move upwards will be violent and unpredictable.
(And Banksman while my BMW 3i is not as nice as the more expensive Tesla, its great, I don't need to travel far day to day and the wife has a bigger petrol car for UK holidays)
Ez, I think the markets have already discounted the SP regarding warrants, they’ve known they were coming. There will be some SP movement but not a lot IMHO because AXL have too good a portfolio of potential and deliver on their promises. Jurisdiction is my main concern & things seem stable for now.
While I understand the appeal of attempting to time the market for some investors, it's worth acknowledging that it can be challenging for the majority of investors. Many of us here in this forum have found success through the proven strategy of pound cost averaging, which involves consistently adding to our investments over time.
For instance, I personally contribute £2000 a week to my investment here, which have grown substantially using this approach in the past in any stock I buy. I've been involved in the markets since my early 20s, and at 53 years old, I've found that a steady and consistent approach has been more reliable for me and is proven to work.
Of course, everyone's financial situation and goals are unique, so it's essential to choose a strategy that aligns with your individual circumstances. Timing the market may work for some, but it's not the only path to success.
To oct to buy in
46million at 9p adds 4m plus to the cash and about 20% more shares to the pot. So rough approximation taking into account sentiment and prospects and CN3 results next week, more like 15p or thereabouts--but who knows, markets at this level are sentiment driven.
Great outlook here, but sadly the warrants are gonna crush this the next 2 months. 46 million warrants at 9p is gonna be exercised the next couple of months. Most of them likely to be sold right away in the market as long as the SP is so much higher than the warrant price. Im a buyer in october around 10p.
Target price across 3 brokers 41p (36/55/32) i have 37p. Net cash is expected to be $12m this year, $50m 2024 & $80m 2025.
"Today’s statement also mentions that Arrow now believes it could drill up to 21 wells on Carrizales Norte. The majority of these would focus on the Ubaque reservoir, with an expectation of a consistently thick pay zone of 100ft. This is the first time we can remember seeing this 21 well number, which is quite a lot larger than we had expected, and ties in with Arrow initially reporting on the CN-1 well that data gathered could mean reserves materially above expectations"
Remains a clear 100% here for me and Brent is about to "golden cross" floor seems to have been identified
See below (hopefully link works)
hTtps://imgur.com/a/RCKoJ4f
hTtps://imgur.com/a/rlNSKhb
hTtps://imgur.com/a/c6mGtb4
Conservative guidance is 20% first year (flush production) then 12% per annum afterwards. We don't have much well data to go on yet.
RCE-1 declines around 12%
RCE-4 is still on an incline in production rates
RCS-1 has been pretty flat since first production
Lots of variation on a small sample size to date
Could be 100 soon. They will literally be throwing off cash. The market cannot ignore this for much longer.
Mkt cap is simply ridiculous. They will be over 5,000 boepd before we all know it and with no debt they should be firmly looking at around 100m mkt cap. Reserves increases could land any time and 21 wells planned for CN. That’s going to be a huge field.
Just buy. I’ve settled now with my 300k. Steady buying and this will move at a pace soon as the loose stock evaporates.
When it’s 40p people will be wondering what all the fuss about the warrants was about. The valuation will sort itself out very soon. I don’t see how this trades lower now. Especially as it looks like cn3 hit 100ft of pay based on the hints in the last rns around the consistent reservoir size.
With our conservative reservoir managent approach i am hoping that well decline rates are not too onerous. As we bold on new wells at hopefully IPR’s of 300 to 500boepd, could anybody kindly let me know any ballpark figures that we should work on for current well decline rates?
I know it’s only crumbs but we could possibly see a tick up today. Interesting little battle between WA’s selling and PI’s buying.
Got enough dry powder for an additional 100k but when to push the button? Decisions decisions.