I'm going for a little lower at $17.5m, I do have $19.9m based on current prices though. The July average for Rhoduium was $8602 with the quarter being $11,141 so it was August when it really kicked in. The last 3 months including October $12,842. It does seem that the consensus on here is $15-20m so this is still on a pe of 2.81 which is still what it was a few months ago. Interested to see what they do with this cash, people love growth stories of big things to come in 2-3 years, but things change so quickly.
Heraeus update 12th Oct.
China’s automotive market has shown a remarkable rebound from the Covid-induced low earlier in the year. The world’s largest gasoline market recorded double-digit growth in August, rising for the sixth month in a row, and preliminary September results from some automakers have shown the trend was maintained. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers now expects full-year sales to fall by less than 10% this year, a vast improvement from the 25% drop initially forecast in the first half of the year. ‘Golden September’ and ‘Silver October’ are considered the high season for car sales, with customers typically returning to make big-ticket purchases after the summer.
With prevailing high prices and supply not expected to keep pace with demand, there is motivation for South Africa’s producers to plug the gap. Over the last 10 years just over 150 koz of rhodium supply has been shuttered. Conceivably, some capacity could be recommissioned within three years. Rhodium’s market deficit is expanding, and unless mothballed mines in South Africa restart, supply will continue to fall short of growing demand.
I've looked at it and did buy some at 73p to see if I could cure my phobia of Cypriots shortchanging me, but it's position 15 on my list or division 3 so it doesn't get much cash. However, a £25m cap with $4m a quarter free cash in depressed oil & gas prices is exactly the headline that interests me hence my mention yesterday, ok it's not a neighbor but its double the cashflow to cap that SLP is giving. Not a word about cash in that Tharisa RNS unfortunately, I always alt +f cash on every RNS first to save time. Companies (like slp) are always proud to mention cash if they make it. The Mali gold lot is very good, got 35% of my money in that one now. Quarterly report here should read very well indeed and that early 60's support here held well. It's doing its thing and consolidating so we are due a move up soon.
Good but still not as exciting as SLP though, lets see what cash generation they come out with. This quarter will be interesting for SLP. The average Rhodium price in the last quarter was $8280, this coming quarter its $11,141 so a descent 34% boost. Platinum $799 to $910 and Palladium $2018 to $2188, so all three up in the last quarter. If you like cash generation then the RNS from JKX today was interesting to read.
"Hope no one is taking these historic 'seasonal' expectations too seriously. Especially if the other months hit the mark; which would be asking too much."
Hope not, it's all to do with the underlying PGM metals prices and momentum. If Rhodium didn't shoot to $10,000+ half the investors here now wouldn't be here and you would not have had these sharp rises attracting traders. Do you really think that this moves totally separately from the underlying PGM prices particularly Platinum and follows the same kind of yearly patterns like mince pie and turkey sales? I understand the desire to see patterns but Oil & Gold companies rise when prices rise, demand here is driven mainly by car production in China and the scarcity of Rhodium as highlighted in several 60-page reports I ploughed through. SLP seems to be generating about $15m a quarter in free cash at these prices despite the dull platinum chart/price. Highlight a seasonal demand for the PGM driving prices and that makes sense. It's currently an 8-day national holiday in China and look at Copper prices, China has a holiday and copper falls, copper falls people think the world economy is falling, China returns to work and copper will go up.
The average prices for the three in 2020 so far are PL $874, RH $9905, PA $2177 using the monthly averages on matthey so this gives me an EPS of 18p. Heraeus has some predictions for the three at $900, $9500 $1950 which again gives me an EPS of 18p. Having a look at the historical PE Ratio (trailing) over the last 3 years based on the average share price and the 52-week high and low range, I get 6.4 when I also include the market median for metals at 10.9 with a SA discount. So still one of the best things I can find before I include dividends, cash held, assets, etc. Still think the BOD is way too tight and should shell out more cash unless they put it to better use. According to my sheet, they could give away the platinum and still make $55m+, or give away the Rhodium and make $30m.
Baltic dry is rising after a few weeks of being lost. Dr Copper is stable and still in an uptrend. Rhodium and Palladium are still looking very good. Platinum looks weak. China is doing fine & people are buying cars. Mothballed rhodium mines cannot be opened quickly indicating higher ($10k+) Rh prices will remain for quite a while. Most people dont care about the flu unless they are fat, sick, or very old. Everyone wants to get back on planes and fly about again and are bored with it. SLP hit a sticky patch at 70p it's fallen back, momentum traders have left and now we are all looking at it saying a basket price of $2852, an EPS of 22p, worth an easy 95-112p. Considering what's going on I would say the next week or two is a good time to do some shopping until the unnecessary fear is gone, fear causes stress, rational, logical thinking creates peace.
Happiness can just refer to the pleasure we find on a sensory level, but real happiness is related to peace of
mind. If we have a calm mind, fear and suspicion are reduced. Fear is a major source of unhappiness.
"A few days ago it looked like 71-73 would be tough (it was) and the early '60s was solid (it will be) . As many are traders here because they constantly talk about daily price movements whilst claiming they don't watch the price or care for its movements, surely that is what is the aim of the game to drive it down like a few days ago"
"it will be"
UT is an uncrossing trade that happens for a reason. A few days ago it looked like 71-73 would be tough (it was) and the early '60s was solid (it will be) . As many are traders here because they constantly talk about daily price movements whilst claiming they don't watch the price or care for its movements, surely that is what is the aim of the game to drive it down like a few days ago? It will do whatever CFEP and JBER want it to do, watch them on L2 working it, lads from CFEP went to JBER few yrs ago it's their style, they milk the order book after any large volume, that's how they make money, volatility and so do you. Anyway good company huge cashflow buy or sell as you wish.
Thanks...Ive not looked at this in any great detail until today and I can now see that the $42m was for ex-works chrome sales, chrome sales were actually $77.6m for the half. Assuming this is the same and the prill split is PL 54.9% PAL 16.7% RH 9.8% Rut 14% IR 4.4% then i get a total income today of around $488m but the expenses/costs are knocking off 90% so my EPS is 14p. I see the brokers are giving an EPS of 27c or 20p for 2021 so if the cash is going on expansion and that is the result then it looks ok, no rush to get in but good for nearly 100% down the line. Kenmare looks ok but now falling out of my 100% gain target.
$3m in salary and bonus for 3 directors is generous and if comparisons are being made to SLP, SLP paid out about $800k. Just making sure the Cypriot father and son are not being too greedy with their 44% holding and treating like a private company. Genuinely looking at this seriously so digging about as you do.
Last half-yearly chrome sales added $42m and the average price was $138 ton, has this altered, I see $138 was mentioned below as the current price?
Where is the cash going I see they have halted cap-ex on a mine but almost all funds seem to go on cap-ex?
71 to 73 might take some work but around early 60-62 looks safe. It's had quite a few positive articles written about it, a Rhodium rise, and some good results. Great company but might need to bump about here before it moves towards 97 to 115.
Oversold because it seems expectations were being hyped up and the results caught some people out who had not worked out the value. I think around 95-102p is about right as things stand today. If gas and oil stay where they are for a while then 115-130p towards the end of the year. Broker estimates look a bit low for 2021 at 19c I think 25c more likely with a higher percentage of income assuming SQZ get 100% of the income then?
I think when there was a sudden rush from RRE to SQZ without a great deal of thought as to the actual value then he has a very good point. Analysts have been revising down the EPS for SQZ for a while so today's results should have been predicted. Investing without knowing the value of something isn't a great plan.