Member Info for bangrak

Analysts revenue numbers (peel) look aggressive to me on current H1 production, looks like 2025 will be 35k GEoz revenue $113m with net about $34m/£25m, current eps 22p PER 7.74 so it's fair value here but not a bargain, i wouldn't chase it above this without confirmed production increases in Q3 of 9k+. I'd also want another analyst on this, as the one analyst is bending the numbers IMO to make forecast per cheap. Requires a flawless H2 to hit peels numbers IMO. Totally different situation if 2026 moves towards 120k GEO or 3-4x today's production, but that's a big leap so 60-80k base case and target of 300-380p, which is the 100% required here. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

Why worry?

A major upside in EPS is likely, indicating a 100% likelihood here if all goes well, and momentum reflects this. Good mix of C&G, cash to improve. Concerns about management over-promising and under-delivering in the past is a concern, along with obvious jurisdiction risk. Analyst coverage is also poor, but IMO that's a good thing if you can calculate yourself. Not a top position for me but growing on me. Word gets about, relax and focus on them delivering. More work to do on this and a few more RNS to read but it's standing out as another 100%+

I think to many investors the price is irrelevant here, it's got more to do with the outcome of the Indigenous people and if they go against Coringa, then the licence might not be granted. You don't keep getting trial licences over and over again. A safe measure is to value this on the production of Palito on its own, with a small contribution from 2-year period at Coringa. I say this is 200-230p. If Coringa get approval, then it's 300-350p. Likelihood is it will be granted, but stuff happens and the exit of major shareholders requires thought.

Art as you know, the commentary over there was correct from 35p to 140 and then back down. We've not finished the upstage. 800p is fair at today's rates IMO, 100k is 515% on my original purchase. STB AET also firm favourites.

RB, don't you need the Indigenous people to be 100% behind SRB, and at this stage it's not 100% so C is not a factor in my valuation I'm just saying 210p possibly at SRB but 100k here is 100% more than where it is. Mine life here is way longer also.

December 24 i felt nervous like i was the only buyer constantly filling to a very overweight position at 195-200p, commenting that i thought this would be worth 100% more soon. Being one of the only buyers and having those nerves generally gives me the "feeling" that it will be worth it.

228% as of today in 7 months and all done in the most comfortable of ways with the feet up. More to go with 100k planned.

Watching a while but not in this, cannot see this being worth much more than 35-40p for a while, earnings falling, debt is high, margins down, no signs of growth, maybe the brands are out of date. 135p target? Come on, that's crazy.

Capital Access will be initiating, they have had a month, so I guess it's due soon. Looking at the recent support, I'd say 600-650 is where most are valuing this

With production at 50k and gold at $2600 i make the current pe about 3.4, which is too cheap for a 20+ year mine. Broker coverage starts soon, I think they will initiate with a TP of 600p+

Whilst you might be looking at this, I think others might be looking at $2600 with production from Palito @ 8-9yrs and Coringa, possibly another 2. Run those numbers and your 125-155p might be explained.

Another view is that PE is in this to get it cheap. I wouldn't rule out the extension/licence being blocked, and they step in and it's taken private or taken out by whichever party they might be representing, then it's granted. I have zero trust for anything, and that works for me. There is no need to pay high numbers on this unless the coringa licence is granted in full. That Mining licence adds a significant premium to this price. There is an overhang here & shares are being flipped, but are investors with 6 figures ready & prepared to pay 155p+ considering the events of the last 4 weeks?

2 major shareholders exit within a week.

Discounted secondary placing stated as UK & EU only

Not a single holding notification.

No seat on the board for the PE firm

Sellers/flippers holding it at a price i calculate to be Palito @ $2.6k x mine life

Do you really think this will rise to 250p because i dont, it's probably worth a bit more but not a lot more until C is full. I dont see the

One of the many things that impressed me here was the most recent CPR with proved/probable of 3.6m oz at Sekisovskoye, 17x more than Palito for example (207k oz) at SRB, the mine will be open 20-25 years longer. It deserves a much higher multiple than at present; the lack of PR and no analyst numbers probably caused this, but that seems to have suddenly changed in the last week with capital access initiating and a proactive appearance. With limited free float, these things tend to move fast with increased interest. Things can always go wrong, but this does look very promising.

Still more to read, but this still looks exceptional, I've just run the numbers on 50k 3k inc costs, and this still remains one of the most unappreciated miners about. Looking like another 100% from here if it's 50k & gold remains above $2.9k. I make FPE (50k 3k) 2.8 it was happy at 5-6 so lets see.

In the most recent resource statement for Palito complex, the proven & probable was how many oz?

What is the current production from that?

At current extraction, this gives how long?

At 3k gold and current AISC , what does that give as a net?

What is SRB reasonably worth on P alone, applying a sensible multiple and ignoring C?

Not a lot of that on here is there?

If the BOD and the 2 cornerstone investors thought that the PI firm was going to assist it in a direction they agreed on like some did here last week, they would have sold more to them in another off-market transaction and retained a larger position & given them a seat, instead, this has been sold off on secondary to whoever at 135p, they seem doubtful. That is nearer the price that was probably agreed in the 19% off-market transaction last week between Green & PE. This is being taken in a direction that they and the BOD might not want now so they are off. I'd say someone has their eye on this and knows how to get it at the best price, maybe even using the PE firm as a front. it looks hostile to me. £250k at 158p suggests some are already making a quick profit. It's best to see what you see, not see what you want to see. Interested now to see who has taken these, but if it's all sub 3%, you won't know, but that will tell you enough anyway what's happening.

Have a look at what levels of ownership you need to effectively tell the BOD what to do, and this should explain what's probably going on and the urgency. Further confirmation is needed in ownership, as you may have 2 PI firms , but in this situation, rarely does a business go for its real value when PI is in. Let's remember that with no licence, it's not really worth much. They know this, they are local, they have contacts so let's see what way they do this and if they play fair, i doubt it.

The resignation of the representative of the largest shareholder today suggests they are also selling. If these also go to the Pi firm, they call the shots here, hence why they (BOD) seem keen on getting cash out before someone stops it. It's coming across that they will only get the licence if the business is in the hands of this PI firm to me. Where is the seat on the BOD for the PI firm... looks hostile.

Until it's cleared up exactly why a representative of a significant shareholder 25.2%, suddenly resigns from the bod after 7yrs without another being appointed, it strongly suggests they are stepping back. It's best to make these things public, or speculation takes over.

Mark Sawyer, non-executive director of Serabi Gold, informed the Board of Directors of his resignation effective 11 April 2025. Following his resignation, Mark Sawyer ceased to be a member of the Board of Directors of Serabi Gold with immediate effect. So what?

Mark is a lawyer representing Greenstone Resource the significant 25.2% shareholder in SRB a company that he started. Mark was legal counsel to Rio Tinto so it seems an unusual time for a respected lawyer to suddenly depart. So we have a 25% shareholder sat on a huge profit not obliged to report every sell as a director has resigned. Why not stay until the license is issued? why depart so suddenly? why leave the bod when your company still has 25%? Usually, a secondary placing happens & then they leave. I find this odd.

In the 6m to 30 June 24 Gold was around $2100, and the net was $8.3m.

With gold at a safe $2835 the net should be $24.6m on current production & aisc, it traded on a pe of 5.7

Production at a planned 50k for 25 and gold at $3k net is about $34m

I make that a fpe of 3.89 which seems too low sp should be 500-600p range

Looking at 100k oz this should be 900-1000p area

Gold futures for net 12m average $3200

All in theory but with other miners now beginning to look fairer value when considering licences and a lack of analyst coverage here then there could be some pleasant surprises and increased interest.