Member Info for bangrak

My post from 22 Nov....."That's a huge H2 weighting required now to hit the expectations of analysts, not sure how big the drop will be here today but on the first read-through, this appears to be in need of a downgrade on 2024. I'm a follower, not invested but cannot see this worth more than the 20-25p range"

Looked very obvious this would fall so why take so long to make this downgrade broker?

Supreme derived c.69% of H1 revenue from its own brand and Elf Bar vaping products.

As said previously anyone still thinking 200p is achievable including equity development needs to be honest with themselves & do the maths. 130p is the max here for a while stripping out the disposables. Very hard to replace that lost revenue. Interesting to see how they deal with this "expected" event.

Q, It's not doing Zilch it was contributing $6.5m (net interest) to the figures, remove this $6.5m and add in the cap ex $15m and your zero cash flow in the real world. Your net profit of $5m a quarter doesn't have the cap ex included, therefore the dividend policy states a % of cashflow i recall which is nothing much down here, so why would anyone be fantasizing about some exciting dividend when it's dropped 20%?. I don't get the point about the price of Rh and the AIC, what matters here is the net basket price per oz based on the prill split and the actual AIC for SLP 4% diff. Cash adjusted 2-3 is where I'm buying there is 20% to be made at that level imo then out.

My biggest concern is that they have been unable to fix this despite their IT guys working all night on it, they won't tell you via the website there is a problem but I can assure you after many emails and several incident numbers they know this is a big problem..... It all started after the scheduled maintenance at the weekend, i sold my IG shares as i have a feeling there is more to this than the 'bug" they told me about. It begins to work and then the entire alerts system crashes again.

The entire system has a bug, its been like this for 24 hrs, however, i have had an issue with the alerts not resetting correctly for 2 months. Terrible service I'm getting from them. Im in the process of moving brokers after 9 years with IG and until recetly they have been fantastic.

The current basket net of "penalties/smelting costs and contractual payability" is within 4% of the AIC. That is less than $4m pa, your net profit will be higher as cap ex is removed but the CFO here knows exactly that the cash generation is minimal. A recommendation to throw money at buybacks and special dividends here without a definite improvement in Rh would be a mistake. Hope is not what makes you money in this business, it's being brutally honest.

88-93p is my target, in at 52.5p will add more at 52 or 57 close. 70p within 1-2 months. fundamentals/technicals

Q1 $1.8m net profit with $3.2m sales adjustments. Now prices are flat Q2 SA won't be significant so approx $5m, that's H1 $6.8m net.

Your brokers still say $28m for this year meaning you have 2 quarters to net $21.2m........to do this $21m in 2 quarters you need RH to rise to $11k now and stay there for 6 months or they increase production to 105k oz now. Guess what happens?

$5m is about all you can expect here for Q you will also see they probably cut back on Cap ex as that is $3-4m a quarter and not included in this AKA very little free cash. A reason why no buybacks have started again i'm sure. The time here is not now.

He read that entry well....bought a bit more than i did and a little bit higher than i did but based on several quite strong technical indicators the last 2 days and what I believe was a trading system-induced bot crash, i'd say this has a good few weeks ahead.

Cash adjusted per to 1.1, meanwhile over on SLP it's 7.2.

Whoever it is that is killing this one on any rise and for whatever reason they are doing it, it's just destroying interest in what appears to be a good business. Stop that and you can see a decent re-rate.

There are some interesting points in this article, yes there will be some benefit in the Disposable to Pod system switch but the price-to-puff ratio is vastly different so it's not good for anyone selling them, therefore this is why i'm saying these numbers the broker's quote are not realistic if there is a change to the laws. If you strip out disposables and allow for say a 10-15% revenue replacement via juices then the net would be nearer £15m. 8.5x EV/EBITDA 155p 10/11 x eps 138p.

https://www.vapesuperstore.co.uk/blogs/news/are-disposable-vapes-being-banned-in-the-uk#:~:text=The%20UK%20is%20considering%20banning,as%20appealing%20to%20young%20children

"All that will happen worst case is they need to be made from disposable HF plastic"

Is this your opinion or has this been stated by authorities? the decision won't happen until 6th December so if you have this information can you share the source?

Based on my research talking to vapers in the UK, the entire driver here in the last 6m has been the huge rise in vapers suddenly vaping Lost Mary disposables, targeted "battery type" promotions & a lack of real regulation. The reason for this was the sweet taste and at £5.99 or 99p for 100 puffs it's expensive, wasteful but generates high revenue v the pod systems and nic salts. Lost Mary now sell their nic salt flavours. For £50 you can get a pod system 6 pods and 100ml lost mary nic salts this is 0.16p for 100 puffs. Mary Vapers are moving away from disposables @ £299 for 30k puffs and moving to systems now the nic salts are available. This will have a huge effect on revenue here IMO regardless of any possible ban, Lost Mary was a kids fad like Pokemon. Even if everyone who bought a disposable from SUP moves to pod systems and buys everything with them, the revenue generated is about 10-20% of the disposables. 155p maybe but 200p+ discussions by some brokers without any consideration of what's happening "out there" now is a bit too bullish. What i''m saying is i've spent time on this i've talked to people and i've listened, this is my opinion. I have a position still from 100p which i feel is safe for 150p down the road but i wouldn't get excited here until the decision is made.

Have they won some money? the last set of results it was around £135m making 47p an excellent buy below net cash and an easy 27% profit. The headline has been dropped right at resistance so think about it.

They do look very good but the ban on disposables post-6th Dec consultation could result in a 23% reduction in net profits at some stage as it stands. I'm not here to question this business but that is a significant contribution included in these H figures that will probably go.

If platinum went up 100% today this would increase the net profit here from $19m to $38m, If Rh went up from $4k to $8k today it would be $32m. Still just 30% of what it was making in 2020 when the share price hit a high of 150p....Fundamentals matter to investors and to prospective buyers. If this had more cash in the bank than its cap or was trading at sub 50p you might get more interest but it's not. All you will get now is see-saw range trades.

The Board remains confident of delivering results for the full year, albeit at the lower end of its expectations.

That's a huge H2 weighting required now to hit the expectations of analysts, not sure how big the drop will be here today but on the first read-through, this appears to be in need of a downgrade on 2024. I'm a follower, not invested but cannot see this worth more than the 20-25p range.

The update looks okay-ish.....140p is possible...... the cash situation however looks a bit flat.

Not been in here for a while but what are you talking about?

The BOD was granted loans that are to be repaid from future earnings, the loans are at Bank of Canada prime rates, this is not free money, why is that a disgrace?

There were 375k warrants o/s with a November deadline, all other warrants have been exercised, what is this millions talk?

The count is now 285m shares.

Canacol owns 21% they are holding, Tim owns 6% and has reduced slightly at 19p.

What is all this selling for months talk?

CYB, I would say $4-5m q. But the cap-ex is capitalized and it's $15m pa so cash build is actually not much. SLP needs to conserve cash until the basket price rises substantially.