Member Info for bangrak

Almost all of the net profit was interest on the cash ($5.9m) the actual PGM business did very little, basket too low, overheads are too high.

In February the broker still had a net profit of $33m pencilled in despite it being impossible to hit.

The cap ex has just doubled $21m to 47m

The broker has now finally reduced the target to 69p.

They stopped buying back

No institutions are interested.

28p in cash (for now) eps 2p cheap value here is 34p fair is 40p area. 42-43p technically for sure....

Simon T the broker and several on this BB were consistently wrong, so will many more get it wrong by thinking investing is about reading the IC.......

Where do you get 12.5 non-cash adjusted from?

The eps is 2.66c or 2p so at today's SP it a per of 25 not 12.5, being faithful is not going to get you anywhere in my experience unless the business is undervalued (like CEY was before today) , however being analytical and brutally honest will. Why would you accumulate in a downtrend on such a liquid share, wait for the 200 day to be re-broken and calculate what it's worth, if there is a clear 30-100% available on your calculations (not broker or simon) buy loads of them and wait. Be very careful about the unwinding of the $4t in yen, which will make huge dents in equities....gold is the way.

Net profit of $7.0 million

Commenting on the results, Sylvania's CEO Jaco Prinsloo said

proud of our safety, health and environmental performance, pleased to report one pence divvy annual dividend of three pence.

Needs more than a bullish update from ST to do anything here, stick to Gold at this stage.

Full year expectations unchanged, despite trading conditions remaining challenging, with continuing macroeconomic uncertainty impacting key markets

.....eps 5.6 but the consensus is 14.8 for the year so that looks like a bit of a challenge requiring a downgrade. One for 2025+

HZ1/3 1500 to 1000 net after 1-2 months and water cut 6% to 31-41% that should explain the numbers here. Time to follow Tim.

The margin is the one to watch, if this shows signs of improvement towards the target they set, it makes a significant difference to the rating here. Improvements have been made already which is why I'm holding/adding. The 65-odd pence per share in cash also helps attract other interest.

Until this is a chrome producer and PGM prices have risen substantially this is worth less than 60p. A smart way to play both right now is not SLP it's THS which already does 1.7mt of Chrome and double the PGM's. You realise that the house broker here is issuing Rh prices of $6k for 2024 with 4 months to go, they did have $13k and Simon has been quoting their research each time. Mates in the city........

Allowing for an increase in net cash over 6 months i think this hit a cash-adjusted PER of around 1 yesterday, at 48p last year (net cash) i hit the buy button several times during uncomfortable periods. The market has this one priced a bit wrong i think.

On that guidance, my sheet tells me the EPS for 2025 is 8p+ firm buyer here.

Year-end is 10 days away. The total of the 3 quarters to date is $5.88m net, this includes Q1 & Q2 net interest on bank balance of $3.19m. Analysts still think $19m is possible LOL (house broker was $33m). Q4 is likely to be similar to Q3 so upon results your prob looking at £6.6m net 2.5p eps. A large part of that is interest from the money in the bank so the mining side is doing nothing exciting, that is obvious to anyone following & calculating the Basket/AISC. PE around 26 on these results. Let's see how brokers explain a huge miss in profits, and a huge miscalculation in anticipated RH prices when some people on this BB said this would happen a year ago. TIFS added to the list below several sold VIX strength Dow weakness markets about to correct 10-14 days

Evo, No advice really but this is what i hold today AET AXL ATYM COST ECEL FUTR GMR HOC JSE KGH NFG PAF PTAL RNO RSG SRB and a small bit of YCA. I've got my eye on another 15-20 I'm just waiting for some TA signs or news on. No advice given here DYOR just things i think are interesting. Gold Copper Silver looks good. Silver/copper is preferred due to industrial uses.

Chat, If the basket price or production increased significantly or if the price dropped to 50p i might look at it for a trade. As it stands it's worth no more than 60p to me and that is being generous. There is not a single buyback above 58p.

“On this particular reservoir, I think we’ve got room for 10 more”

After waiting & holding patiently for over a year, this looks more promising than I had initially expected. The free cash situation is the one that interests me the most with these particular wells being fully paid back in 6-7 weeks. In my numbers, I'm seeing a significant cash balance in excess of the current market cap in 2025-26. Realistically, we should be looking at 30-35p comfortably when the wells have settled.

I had the same feeling yesterday after reading them, i felt a bit flat. If they do produce 51kt and keep costs to sub 3.2 and CU remains up here it should make significant sums. The problem is what i calculate it should be making is not what it's making so i need to see q2. Jesus has almost left the building yesterday with a nice £312k in his tallit.

There is definite value here but sub 200d it's a no for me. Not sure what this new foreign agent rule will do to the banks or what analysts expect, so need to monitor that. Interesting one, but where are the buybacks after this drop?

When it was sub 48p it was screaming out as a 100% er. It's still a very very comfortable 130-140p+ imo, might have some top slicers at 96 area inc myself but that gain remaining should appeal with a new base of investors at 67p looking for that 100%. Oct 23 was exceptionally confusing to me, you could buy this for below net cash but zero interest, as with many i go into i couldn't get anyone i know to take any notice of this "poor low margin, accident-prone, dull business" was all i got.

As a value investor, I've been drawn to this one based on analyst forecasts and calculations of my own. The recent drop has drawn more attention from me so I've opened an initial position on that drop to get me interested. What i find frustrating is when i look on a BB to gain further insights & find arguments back and forth with no real analysis or fundamentals to back it up. It looks like a pumper-and-dumper BB.

Why doesn't the king of negativity post a summary of why you should not buy this giving specific details (not feelings) and the king of positivity does the opposite? Im sure even experienced investors who generally invest larger sums would find this interesting. I'm very much in favour of alerting people to inaccuracies in analysis both ways. I'm not an expert in SRB at all but i could be if i have a full picture. I get most of the positives here but would appreciate more of the negatives. If anyone can help i would appreciate reading this. Thanks

You're welcome Anderson,

Last year i posted this report and very few read it, it highlighted a serious oversupply of RH due to glass manufacturers selling back RH ........... different this year but not wow, very clear message in this report.

https://matthey.com/documents/161599/509428/PGM-Market-Report-24.pdf/4d557d3b-47d1-d975-c4af-5df1c81000f0?t=1715228936090

A large chunk of AET also, Askar increased his holding there several times absorbing any selling near his purchase price. Im not sure that people appreciate he's made 100%+ gains in these smaller oil producers.

Costs are increasing look at the margin on AISC in relation to the net basket, they are not making adequate reductions in costs. This will make no more than $8m net this year placing it on an EPS of 2.5p, it's trading on a PER of 28. It's not cheap and its got pumped up by inaccurate broker guidance of $33m and trading systems, I'd seriously have a think about waiting for this 1p, unless you trade the entire lot you're not going to gain anything here. Right how many run for the exit today?