Member Info for bangrak

The AIC was $1401 in Q1 the net basket is now $1021

I'm not sure a surge will make a difference here even if it's sustained for months. $28m of cash adrift at these numbers

Operational expenses $74m

Production 74k oz

Current net basket $1090oz

Net basket July onwards $1046oz

Not great numbers

"This is now pretty much fair-value"

35-37p with the current basket is my latest figure. It's hanging about at 41p mostly due to chartists but i'll keep watching.

5k generates £18m net, 7k about £23m so i see no value above 32p. However, to get there, they have to spend $50m on 23 wells, if these 23 wells produce 350 net for a few years minus the ones running dry 8k is about max say 39p. Small position here now but it's lost me at the moment a little. However, 23 wells could encounter something different. Personally, i would prefer it just to generate free cash and give that back but i have no interest in a Job there, issue of free shares or anything else they "might" benefit from, such as drilling.

Broker target raised this week to 150p, however, on a new higher gold price 2600+and higher production, this is well into the 200p+ IMO

11th September

"For me, It's 150p down the road if it does what it says it's going to do"

Not many about like this dips will be bought.

$50m spend on 23 wells in 25 means the rig operator is doing well but shareholders do not see the "cash= cap" outcome they anticipated in 23. If these wells just replace the declines in others and water cut remains high then i can see people sitting on the fence here until a meaningful, stable increase in BOPD.

IMO, the brokers have been way too optimistic in calculating what profit they will make when disposables are gone. I don't like advisers using fluffy RNS talk like "to satisfy institutional demand" when a director wants to sell several million £ shares. I see this as a 150p business with no disposables eps 14-15p. Demonstrate some huge growth in non-vaping areas, cut out the fluffy progressive /adviser talk, and it's game on again. Like huge rises in commodity prices that fall back, SUP had a huge boost from LM & ELF.

There is a gap at 315p so think before adding above that........I'm not sure I'd value this at much more than 330-350 so I don't see this recovering much.

Https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20241021.pdf#msdynttrid=pF_zO7dQ5JVsuwDch4YIk56YCoAulY7BzPdcnqI3cWk

It's all about RH if you want a 20-50% gain, the rest won't add enough to the basket. Even with 20% rises on both, it will make less than $7m diff to the net profit.

Cannot really see this one falling much more, but I can see it rising 50-60% in 6- 12 months, so it's almost at the top of my buy list. Not my usual sector but the numbers look very good.

That is precisely why I suggested over on SLP weeks ago when asked the way to go was gold and mentioned several of these, this being the best IMHO. For those not following what is happening here.......the analysts have recently upgraded this one significantly a number of times as they have started to use more realistic spot prices, which is exactly what I anticipated & what happened with Rhodium & SLP a few years ago for a 3/4x gain. For those like myself who calculate profits, this looks quite remarkable and draws in more sticky investors with larger holdings. The numbers will do the talking, but your drops here will now get bought into sooner. There is a lot of interest in this one now.

There has been a 30% year-over-year growth in EV car sales in China. 16% of the basket revenue currently comes from palladium (40% RH). $1000 won't make much difference to the numbers. $200 extra makes a few million extra on net, but a huge change in Rh will.

Gold & silver delayed reaction from brokers in upgrading to more sensible spot prices ($2500/$29-35) now happening, resulting in huge upgrades in several of the ones that were mentioned.

The average price they get per oz net of penalties/smelter costs/contractual pay ability since the new FY is $1042.

In the most recent update, they said the AIC were $1167 & AISC $967

No, i cant work out why

So Simon has exited the building and now the broker is saying this in an update today...."We are resetting our Sylvania Platinum earnings forecasts on the back of revised PGM price forecasts, with no near-term price kick from an Auto-led restock. Model updates lower our price target from 69p to 60p.

They now see what some did 1-2 years ago.

House broker analysis $6.3k in 24 for RH and $9.5k in 2025 (Liberum price deck 2/7/24) 100% above the industry is. Both a joke....

Just in.......

https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/palladium_standard/Palladium_Standard_2024.pdf they agree and on gold too.

Gross basket here new FYTD is $1550, and the net will be $1147 the AIC was $1167 AISC $967 with demand for the underlying metals here not showing signs of much growth (see china EV & truck LNG damaging oil).

Unless there is a substantial recovery in PGM's (unlikely) you are not going to make much money in them IMO. The opportunity was the covid shutdown driving RH to £29k = SLP making $26m a quarter when analysts sat on $8k RH in their tardy analysis. To make $26m which the broker is estimating you need a gross basket of $1550 net $1147, made up of RH $6k PL $1k PA $1.1k, Even then it would be trading on an eps of 7p or PER now of 6.2 that won't bring in the £250-500k buyers that stick because they know the value isn't here at present.

There is a trade here at 41-42 as highlighted but don't get drawn into high hopes of PGM's recovering dramatically and this being suddenly worth 50-100% more. Much better returns for gold miners as analysts are using spot figures 20% lower than the supported range now so your wonderful stocko screen will go up and up and green. I hold SLP now (not that it matters) but I'd rather it go to 30-35p as more sticky investors would be in.

For me, It's 150p down the road if it does what it says it's going to do. What i am noticing is the strengthening in the volumes I can sell at relatively high prices. Worth checking out what gold price they are using as many are much lower than this new range that is where the opportunity in upgrades is coming from.

I agree i can clearly see 52-57p here so I'm in at 36p ish. Interesting growth here, net looks like £8.4m to me within a year or so. Brokers look a little too bullish but 50% is ok.

41-42p i wont say this is a great buy its just not exceptionally expensive & technically driven.