Member Info for bangrak

When spot prices dipped on 23rd March, it was still fair value at 120-130p. It's more into the 130-140p range now, if you use T3m prices 150+. This Gulf situation goes 2 ways SP will recover. After this hit 92p it got technically good, the anchored VWAP & trailing moving averages all bringing in institutions and now offering solid support. I mentioned the VWAP before an II fave on these crashes. Im following that up.

I find that candles work in calmer environments, anchored VWAP is now useful for me. I've been waiting for another COVID-type correction; it all got too silly. Now you have quite a few good options out there. AET was another good 100% gain for me in a few months. Then again, when I bought it, it was all doom and gloom in oil at 39p. SLP & ALTN are both top of the shopping list now, but both require a mindset that understands a focus on the numbers will win eventually, but in the short term, there could be pain.

1253p @ 3.5k i have myself. Definitely one that will reward those who focus on their numbers. It did get a bit ahead of itself, driven on by momentum, but it's back in interesting territory. Slowly building up a position again.

You make your big gains during times like this, but it takes a certain person to be out shopping when the missiles are flying about. The T6m spot prices support a SP 50% higher than this and T3m 79%. This has gone from an OK one to something much more today, but it will not be for everyone. Im inundated with things to buy.....

I think you're missing the by-products $21m and the 27% haircut off the gross basket, which allows for penalties, smelter and other costs. Its good but its not that good.

T3m spot prices = eps c26p....... today's spot prices = eps c27p. Unless there is a huge crash in spot prices, these are times when you stick to the numbers and take advantage of any weakness. Jaco might know a thing or two about running a PGM company, but he's sold slightly too early, IMO a bit like Cobus Loots did on PAF a few months ago, which made me a further 51% after his exit. I see 30-40% available with SLP on fair value, Jaco should have hung on i think there is more to come here before i sell out.

RH is hitting 11,750 in Hong Kong 12m high.

Often, it takes a drop to reignite interest. With a lack of real analyst cover i'm sure a large number of investors are just following technicals with no real idea about its value. At $4850 with 53k & 1400p there is room here now to make some gains so i guess a few early fans might be holders again.

If they hit them, then yes, it's impressive & changes future valuations. I see 560p+ down the line.

130kt in 2027 minus all costs, adds about 4p eps. @ $287t

$136 cash op costs per tonne minus corp tax 27% & royalties 1-2%

Basic calcs

Rev $37m

$17.6m op costs

$560k royalty

$5m tax

$14m net approx

5.3c eps or 3.89p

Adds about 23p to the price. I'm not that excited about Chrome as i would be, say Uranium, where the fundamentals look astounding.

The US targets 400GWe by 2050, which requires an additional c.293GWe

China targets 335GWe by 2050, which requires an additional c.275GWe

India targets 100GWe by 2047, which is an approximate twelvefold increase from its current c.8GW base

Further example of errors in communication from brokers.......3rd Feb 6am release says at the bottom........

Serabi Gold plc is a gold exploration, development and production company focused on the prolific Tapajós region in Para State, northern Brazil. The Company has consistently produced 30,000 to 40,000 ounces per year with the Palito Complex and is planning to double production in the coming years with the construction of the Coringa Mine. Serabi Gold plc recently made a copper-gold porphyry discovery on its extensive exploration licence. The Company is headquartered in the United Kingdom with a secondary office in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Palito production isn't anywhere near this level Roland Cornish it was 20158 in 2025 17404 in 2024. 2016 it was 39k so get your house in order.

I’ve identified what I think is a problem with the 2027 analyst numbers, as mine don’t reconcile. Panmure issued its price deck in January, while Edison’s assumptions are shown on page 3 of their note.

For platinum, Panmure assumes ~$2.1k in 2026 and ~$1.6k in 2027. Edison also uses ~$2.1k in 2026 but jumps to $2.9k in 2027 — an 81% difference for the same year.

For palladium, the numbers are broadly similar in 2026 ($1.6k vs ~$1.7k), but in 2027 Panmure is at ~$1.4k versus Edison at ~$2.3k — a 64% gap.

For rhodium, the divergence is even more extreme: Panmure ~$8.7k in 2026 and ~$7.3k in 2027, versus Edison at ~$10.6k and ~$16k — a 120% difference in 2027.

Given the scale of disagreement, how can anyone reasonably talk about “upgrades” feeding into Stockopedia screens and then base a valuation view on 2027 earnings? At that point, the numbers are effectively wild guesses, particularly on Edison’s side.

Seen this movie before. Analysts extrapolate optimistic price decks, retail commentary amplifies it, and many people get caught out when reality reasserts itself. Analysts need to stick to realistic assumptions; otherwise, we’ll be back to ST at IC, pumping out inaccuracies. The loads of people buying it based on what stocko says about its FPE ratio. You lose 50% when they downgrade it as RH didn't hit $16k. part 2 is late in 2026

Ignore 2027 “valuation” & stocko attraction until we’re much closer to the end of 2026 or your buying wild numbers.

Note the volume appears to be rising substantially, obviously a seller is being cleared out at 148p, technically this looks like it's about to rise with 152p a key point. Let's take a guess, seller gets cleared out, and a decent acquisition is announced.

A short of under 1% isnt really worth looking at, but it's kind of up there now with the current fair value, but 40-50% off 2026+ value, so should gains be banked here and is a pullback necessary to entice more buyers? TNAV is low, but i find TNAV isnt enticing people to buy as much as PE.

Nimrod, this doesn't take into account the potential loss of Coringa. If you read the analyst reports, they all (as paid to promote) assume the licence will be granted, then yes, these numbers could apply. Step back, look at the events of the last year, read the RNS's as gold geeser highlights (inaccuracies). Make a decision. My honest feeling is that there have been a few too many events leaning me towards a much higher risk that it won't be granted. Caution is needed, caution means a smaller holding for me based on Palito being the only mine in 2027, this means it's worth 260p imo but no more than 320p allowing for a year of Coringa. Stocko forward PER are based on analyst expectations (licence) & are low for this reason. Personally i feel PAF is a better and safer option right now; however but this becomes the top choice if a license is granted. If its not in an RNS its not worth anything.

Owls yes i am, my numbers say profit this year will, be $78m and im using 287 chrome 2000 pl 1600 pal 9000 rh with current fx rates. This is why i see 130p+ as fair and the recent pullback as an opportunity. Analysts see $78m also with 148p target. I don't know if i share their enthusiasm for 2027; that's too far ahead.

Reading today's RNS I think 49-50p is about right here as it stands until there is evidence of confirmed production increases. 70p plus later in 2026.

Spot prices i think it's closer to 150p T3m 130p. The problem here is it's trader town and not many know what it's worth, including the analysts. History repeats itself.

Its only a good entry if gold remains high and they get the licence. If you base gold on $5k and include Palito's production only for 6-9 years mine life, then its fair value is 270p. Based on this, it seems the 270p area should have some support. 3 deaths in just over a year isn't very good, and releasing this news at no one is watching o'clock is shifty.

Even if they hit further wells, what happens in Feb 2028 if the Tapir contract isn't renewed? Right now, it means risk, uncertainty & confusion over investment. Those things don't allow higher valuations