Member Info for bangrak

"Combining higher costs with low production in 27 suddenly means that the 27th profits could be similar to 26 - not great news for the share price"

Exactly what i was just saying myself, eps is almost identical to 26. Still worth towards 160p on a good day though, so now it's worth looking at again.

With any miner, you really have to be constantly looking at the spot prices and the fx effects on costs. Chrome production is not exciting, the rand is getting stronger 16-ish to the $, making op expenses about $25-30m a year more now than before, now Rhodium is on a decline. The combined effect of this is that it's worth quite a bit less than it was a month or so ago, hence the SP direction. Things can go either way, but in this case its gone the wrong way with all of them. Total op costs now over $126m, which really affects the net profit. Fair value on spot is about 110p. Edison's research, which is being captured by your stocko screens, is using $16k Rh not the current $8.8.

Margin, I don't think they missed anything. They said this:

"Looking ahead, we are evaluating plans to increase processing capacity to 2–2.5Mtpa, potentially boosting annual production to over 100,000 ounces in the medium term. Updates on these plans will be shared in the coming months" "2026 has begun positively, and we expect production of 52–55Koz, with a focus on efficiency improvements, expansion plans, and advancing key projects"

They have not made a decision 100% on the $125m investment to increase to 2-2.5 but they obviously will. Right now at spot prices this is trading on a pe of 3.5. I saw no interest & people getting concerned at 300p then excited and overreacting when it was 1700p. I'm really seeing something becoming cheap again. Gold can go to $3800 and this is still sub 5 pe. I really don't think the masses get it.

The company and the broker come across as exceptionally conservative. I mentioned a $600 per oz lower gold assumption to that of the brokers on SRB. Like many, I've enjoyed exceptional returns over the last few years on many of the gold companies; the 600% here was only possible because the masses didn't actually know what it was doing or could do at a certain gold price. Everyone is probably chancing the 50/50 with SRB or perhaps not really getting that it's a 50/50 as the brokers there are happy to make assumptions "all will be fine". Good if it comes off, but bad if it doesn't.

Margin miner you said this..."The forward production of gold produce for the next few years in altns latest reports show no increase"

They cannot increase production much more than the 50-55k oz right now because of the processing capacity (1m t pa) gold grades (2.05g) & 85% gold recovery rate. The maths don't allow this.

Margin half of your net is £88m @ current FX the cap is £250m that isnt 50%+ as rat says......ive checked this with Einstein, also a mathematical genius and he agrees.

What happens to that % if the Coringa licence isn't granted? Stocko mentions absolutely nothing about the real risk of the licence, which is very poor from Graham. It also mentions nothing about the cost involved in giving the indigenous people the things they want. Its like people are not aware of it.....

I'm not sure why this dropped the other day on such decent numbers, and I recall that many of the sites don't show the RNS so perhaps many didnt see it. To get the RNS, you need to use something like investegate for this one. Anyway Capitals note shows profits align pretty much with what has been discussed here if you use a current $4600 price. They do reiterate the 52-55k. They are, however, using $4k gold, so with the gold 125 ema being $4600 they seem to be anticipating a drop in gold H2 to get to the $4k. With notes being issued today on other popular ones using $4750 you seem to have a very wide DFK at all consensus. The problem with all of them is that they got up here on "momentum" strategies after the value was spotted by investors. Now you face the opposite. Investors see real value, but traders and momentum investors see nothing interesting. Been here before many times, often it's a long uncomfortable wait, but highly rewarding eventually.

Net profit of over £125m? Not sure what profit you are referring to?

So what's the view on the PL PGM price trend & the forecast EPS for 2027?

An interesting and honest assessment. Hats off to Duncan.

Art It's down to the prill split being 63 v61 13v 9 24v29 13v 9. This alters the gross basket.

However, calculating the quarterly net is reliable if the prices are stable and so is production and its shipped and sold same Q.

Q2 was high production 24.6k and lower prices $2374 gross basket, so shipping midway through Q2, settlement occurs into Q3 , and if prices rise sharply Q2-Q3 (they did), you get excessive sales adjustments in Q3 that are hard to calculate. Based on JMT average prices, Q3 net would have been around $23m.

Based on $4600 not $3474 gold suggests PAT of £70-74m fair value to me of 1450+. Net debt down $31m. Price is currently being ruled by gold spot. PE of 4.3 is a bit too low. Talking about production increases are ok, but seeing definite plans would be better. Still a huge mine here and once this gold price has settled, momentum will revert. Numbers look good, the chart looks a bit dull.

Strong quarter, driven by higher spot PGM prices. $13 million in sales adjustments helped net profit exceed my expectations. Cash increased by roughly $10 million, the first cash increase for several months, which is good.

Looks like the market is beginning to price this more on current spot rather than trailing prices, the volatility is a bit tiresome.

Guidance of 55 kt is poor versus earlier hopes, looks like a bit of a waste so far, and costs being maintained around $130/t.

P/E 4 ish looks low on current earnings. Assuming metal prices cool from peak levels but remain supportive, I’d say its worth 130-150p depending on the war & spot v T6m prices.

6k bopd at $92 places this on a per of 7-8 according to my numbers. A year ago, I had it as 3-4. There's nothing weak about this business; they are struggling a bit with boosting production, but it's made many a nice 100%+. I would be cautious assuming you might get some premium offer to this 80p.

Agreed, you need to see the effect of the vape tax, or it's guesswork, as i see it, they are having to do a lot of extra work to replace what was a very lucrative disposable vape business. I said there was a deal coming in Feb. The deal with Carabao looks good, but i see house brokers have still not given it much of an upgrade, meaning 170 is achievable but you need to be in a far more settled economy to get 200p+. Aed the face of Carabao walked into a quiet beach bar i was in last year and did a small gig. Nice chap, very down to earth.

My 4e gross in Q3 from JMT is $2870, net is $2095. Chrome added @$287t, plus byproducts, minus opp costs, G&A, royalty tax and tax gives me a quarter that generates around $23m net. Sales adjustments could push this up a bit.

Have you used the gross basket rather than the net basket? They seem to match mine if i price the basket on $2870 gross not $2095 net. The difference being penalties, smelter costs & contractual payability.

Clearly, the run rate is significantly below guidance. Q2 need to be a lot better, or this gets put in the uncertain pile. It's worth a bit more than where it is, but not a lot more after that weak Q1. Blame it on wet weather and say you might catch up a bit, like ATYM did, at least it's a half decent excuse.

I'm sure most people looking at this will be confident it's worth in excess of 1700 and more likely nearer 1900. Gold 50d ema crossed last night, so extra ETF inflows will begin. The only risk to gold is countries like Turkey again using it for liquidity, and sellers exceeding buyers.

You're welcome, owls. I've benefited from people highlighting things good and bad on these boards over the years; that's what they are for.

A few years ago, brokers & investors were missing the sustained increase in Rh prices and focusing on Platinum too much, which created an opportunity, then they missed the reverse and believed Simon at IC and the brokers' hype. As it stands, the current basket price places this on a per of just over 4, so it seems cheap to me. T3m basket is slightly higher, that's giving me a per 3.7.

Couldn't choose one owls, i also now have STB AAZ & ASAI up there with them too after a week's shopping. Eye on ATYM also.