Member Info for bangrak

Not sure it can double production in 12 months but possibility of this in a few years with extreme patience. Worth watching.

Hi CYB, I will the next time I'm up in BKK, i'm south on KS so if you are down this way let me know. Now prices are flat there shouldn't be large revenue adjustments so this $4-5m q looks ave. I have current PE 10 CA to 5 so the value here is better and it hit 65p exactly as someone said it would a few weeks ago ;) some might be tempted but not me at this stage. China car sales are up 13.8*% YOY.

CYB, I've had a refresh of the JMT report again and it seems very clear to me that the 2019-22 spike caused by a supply squeeze has now normalised with supply demand seemingly well matched. What I'm not understanding is why anyone including the brokers here expects Rh to rise to the levels they are using in their analysis. Logic would say that they should be using a figure more aligned to this balanced period that is somewhere between 4100-6600 (200d ema) midpoint 5300 or net $24m. At today's SP that's a FPER of 9 cash adjusted 5, and as you say this is much higher than the norm here. Allowing for the first Q adjustments I see $16m now as net, that's $12m below (42%) the current consensus. Not a big short opportunity here but would i go short if it went up too much considering that many investors see the results and sell off? something that also might interest some is the receivables v say THS, very different periods needed to actually get the cash in. 249 days v 132 days.

Just follow Steel copper aluminum and Nickel prices as these are the top 4 transition metals, what people say means nothing it is what they do, Ferrari now sells more EV than full ICE. Fashions fade and so do ideas.

2805boe is $5.6m net so now 17p is fair with extra shares @ 165m. 2024+

Eps 23.2p net £20.52 i have as a consensus of 5. 30% off this is 16p hence @ 92 was 5.75. Not sure anyone cares about value presently, costain dropped to below net cash last week...thanks very much i said in the back of a tuk-tuk.

They are however using approx $7k for rhodium.

To get to $7k rhodium for the FY it needs to go to $8.9k today and stay there until July. In the latest THS results, they said this......."We see muted upside in the short term for PGM prices. In the medium to longer term demand drivers including the hydrogen economy, possible supply cuts at unprofitable PGM producers, project delays and capital discipline versus demand for the ICE, will require a recovery in PGM prices to ensure demand is met by supply"

Your house broker (not edison) says this "We believe that the rhodium price will lift substantially in the coming quarters as destocking by glass fibre and automaker OEMs comes to an end. There is further upside risk from supply disruptions in South Africa and Russia"

Who do you believe?

The reality is, that you will not get near to what Ediison & the house broker are suggesting for earnings unless the above happens. The house broker has stated in a note "Cash margins are still positive, if minimal, at $19/oz" .40% of that is very small even if they decide not to include cap ex. Rh has averaged $4250 since the new financial year. As I've said previously if i use oil at $200 for calculations i get some really impressive numbers for my oil companies. The reality is i use an average of the next 12m futures prices updated daily and ignore analysts unless there are several independent ones.

A collapse in PGM prices and closure of mines resulting in a severe shortage of PGM's is akin to the situation we had during covid. That is your event to watch for.

Owls, consensus is 3.3c so 2.6p but that is on much higher rh estimates, cash generation down here is virtually non-existent, the house broker has stated $19oz is being made so on 75k it's not much. Depends on what SLP management wants to do, if they have confidence the good times will return then they can pay whatever they like as divvy cover is ok, but if they stick to the dividend % agreed which I think was 30% or similar again it's nothing much maybe 1-2p if lucky. If I was on the BOD I would save the cash until they are sure things are recovering. Platinum doesn't do much to the profit like rh does. Ironically I was using this example in my last post about ST excitement over spot rises missing the RH contribution.....QED

Early 3000 now 3800-3900

Very difficult to predict Rh prices as we have seen the last few years, just at the start of covid everyone was sleeping here and missing the rise in RH price getting too engrossed in Platinum lines and charts. Cash now is around $108m or 33p a share. On $7k Rh cash adjusted per of 5 equates to 81p on $4100 its 66p. I think this is as much as you can expect. I'm quite sure this will get pulled down to sub 65p and then let's see if SLP decides to buy any..........they have refrained so far from buying so why should you buy? Tach, they pulled out $3m in cap ex spend last quarter, that was the only reason for the slight cash build and i don't like management who say "excited about things" in results when it is actually very poor out there. To make this a wow valuation and a 50% possible gain you need Rh to be over $13k, at that level i can see some possibly being interested but the house broker has $5k for LT RH price and everyone is convinced electric is the future and china is very much behind electric cars. I live in a very popular location for Chinese tourists and they are not here, China is not spending.

It seems to me that the issues it faced have been addressed with the various changes in the BOD from 2020 onwards, if you remove covid which caused most businesses lots of issues then they appear to have turned a corner in the last few years. I understand your opinion about history & margins but it does appear that those have been addressed looking at the performance. Most of the revenue for 2023 is secured already & I just find the recent updates here & from other companies in this sector quite impressive considering the circumstances, several materially ahead updates. If it had £150m net debt i might not be here but its cap in net cash is interesting.

Yes, RH is the driving force behind the huge profits in 2020-21 and obviously, that is used in ICE mostly from China. Forecasting what it will be is difficult but I'm seeing China's adoption of electric vehicles grow well each month and glass manufacturers use alternatives, i see no huge increased demand now or positive sentiment towards ICE/RH. I think the entire electrification is far-fetched due to the reliance on China for its Rare earth minerals & other costs, but Vietnam has large stores of these minerals so I'm watching what happens. I'm going to assume that the market gives SLP a continued PER of 6-8 max, I calculate the last 3 years' peaks have averaged 6.6. Rh I'm giving an average 2024 price of $5500 which gives me a PAT of $24m, eps of 9c so 72c or 60p, a base was forming at 65p and I think this will go there again maybe lower as investors are not seeing the value here or a bounce in RH. I totally get the thinking that cash here should make a difference but I'm not seeing the trading system's account for cash, even if I use a per of 4 and include cash i get 70p. One I'm invested in that demonstrates this forgotten cash theory is Costain where the net cash pile is 48p a share and the price now is 47p but it still makes a decent profit too. I see these as no-brainer valuations that will sort themselves out when people stop whinging on about "difficulties" in the economy. I genuinely think that a lot of people assume these people who work for IC and brokers have some kind of gift but in reality, they are just normal people, also i think people who are l;ess experianced think the data on thigs like stocko is gospel but as this has proven its only as good as the date it uses, and if that dadta is incorrect (like using $13k rh) you get nasty surprises.

Owls you're welcome, and if it helped direct anyone else toward reality and not paid-for corporate & media BS then that's good. Here is some more house broker BS.....Ben the broker now dropped Rh to $7k from $13k but still has Rh as $5k longer-term. So that's $7k for the year and it's done $4k after 25% of it, and the best bit he has...............$52m PAT this year 2024 after they did $1.8m in Q1..........explain HTF you get $52m PAT with $7k RH ............why not check your calculations Ben before massaging them substantially upwards?

Is anyone else finding this obsession about keeping the price down fascinating, i would be interested & buying here even if it didn't have 48p in net cash in the bank. This could be doing anything as far as I'm concerned or even have Big Bird and Ron Jeremey on the Board, the value here is something very compelling and if i was the major shareholder here i would take it out asap before a competitor has it or i buy it myself.

$1.8m net profit is obviously well below what I had predicted but the sales adjustments brought it down so if you remove them the net would have been nearer the $5m I had predicted many weeks ago. You still have to remove cap-ex from this to get a true figure and consider that it's the interest generated on the cash balance that resulted in a cash increase. Plenty of warnings have been given here and I'm sure some will jump on any chance to add on the slightest increase in RH. The reality is this is not what it was and far too many people got misled by brokers and Simon who got it wrong. This is making no real profit down here and won't until there is a substantial change in RH prices.

Revenue in excess of £100 million for H1.

Elf a disposable contributed 50% to that.

Guidance for the year for elf was £40m.

It really needs those disposables, doesn't it?

We've identified 30% of real estate exposure and pessimistically removed 35% from earnings based on consensus of 5 analysts in 2024 2025 and this places it on a forward PE of 5.6 2025. This is still cheap v piers 8-19-9, 65% below professional & commercial services average and this is assuming that not one single property transaction takes place, and they do not get any benefit from corporate law acquisitions and international business/insolvency aka "very very bad". I think that's too prudent but still shows considerable value. I think it is worth nearer an 8-9 on a eps of 21p, the consensus of 5 analysts is 162p. Mid 2024 things will be different the charts for inflation and interest rates align there. For me, the risk is minimal, and the reward is high.

HD that was the focus of one of my earlier posts, you can allow a huge unexpected and unforeseen drop in earnings here and it would still be very cheap, the company has not indicated this will happen in its latest update and in fact, mentioned organic growth. Finding value and an adequate safety net is important, for some, it's just about following what others do without deep research. After seeing the recovery I'm quite sure that traders (not investors) got spooked last week. Now I know NT is involved and his people are, it explains it all now. Strip out an unexpected 35% of earnings in any company you follow and still see if it is still cheap. Those drops Rag surely have to be the RB effect.

Current spot prices (not broker assumptions) give a net of $20m

The current PER is 12.93

The current cash-adjusted PER is 6.74

Spot prices are available from anywhere and the company tells you what they spend, no need to wait for results just run a 3-month average on the spots with the correct prill split. Surely SLP are telling you what is coming by not recommencing buybacks here? If you're going to try a run into these results, think about it logically, it's obvious what coming. First, 200-day touch then reversal the 20-day will go and it will drop as momentum traders/systems leave, possibly revisiting 65p area on Q1 results, my opinion, lets see who is right, I'm not shorting it but I see a short opportunity to that level and all this is backed up with calculations and charts.

You have had your first quarter now and RH was $4k that means the net will be no more than $5m for q1 and if you removed cap ex ($15m pa) the cash flow is not a lot, so your divvy comes from the cash pile unless huge moves in RH (not happening). Your Q1 results come out at the end of October you will see this. I mentioned weeks ago that the broker had not made a downgrade but I've noticed now the consensus of brokers for 2024 is now a more sensible $28m not $40+ which is what I've been saying for months, this used to make that in one quarter. You noticed the house broker didn't actually issue a note telling you this revenue downgrade have you? and your greens have gone to yellows. Let's see what happens to this hot run when the reality of $4k RH lands in Q1 figures, this isn't Bitcoin it trades in accordance with its profits that are linked to spot prices.