Member Info for bangrak

Wildtiger the net cash per share is 43p even at $4k rh its eps will be 4p so for me 47-52p would be rock bottom. If you think this is cheap just do the maths on TGA COST THS and others...you can get net cash plus 1 year eps now thanks to fear and algorithmic trading bots. For direction watch ETFRHO for the 50-day break then have a look at this.

Caught up here now. I have $95m as net, I cannot seem to see what Rh price they are using in the 2024 assumptions but it looks like $12-13k to get the $649m. My sheet with $5-6k says earnings $559m, eps is now around 32c or 24p so a current pe of 3.25, cash adjusted to 1.7. Did anyone else spot the comment about the family possibly doing a management buyout? the company does seem to be making more of an effort to promote itself now anyway.

At 542p where ive been buying this is net cash ps plus just under one year's earnings, I'm using current cash estimates on $100t accumulated since the last results. Absolute bargain imho.

The company handed the job of buybacks to the broker, it's their decision when they buy, and they are using an RH forecast of $13.7k for 2024 (200%) which seems very high considering demand/supply/sentiment and direction. The price of RH slid to $4k, profits will be affected, broker stopped buying. The broker says eps 2024 = 17c that why your forecast eps on your subscription site is low/attractive/green, actual eps on $6k rh is 9c......unless there is a change in RH there will be eps downgrades here. If i put $13k in my sheet i get the same eps as the broker. The current eps, therefore, is 15. Cash ps at 43p plus a few year's eps 55-64p might be where the broker buys. Results out the last q soon, $6m q profit, that the new normal.

Results look good (again) Catching up slowly on details here as this does seem really good value, but just cannot get to the bottom (except having FIL on the books trading) as to why this one is always held back and sold into. Two PGM miners, one produces $40m cash in 1 quarter and the other very little. Strange times

Not fully up-to-date on this one but appears it's not far off net cash ps plus 1 year's eps. Interesting indeed. Not quite sure if the systems trading this down are paying much attention to some finer details.

For anyone invested like me who went through the pre covid to RH spike to $20k, it was only caused by covid, you had mine disruptions, a shortage of supply, and then China reopening and everyone buying cars as they didn't want to travel with others in public transport pushing demand, RH was in short supply. Things are now different. China is incentivising EV again ,EV sales are 30% and rising rapidly and due to RH being so high, recycling also became more efficient. Go back to 2019 and RH was sub $4k profits were $18m and eps 6c, my sheets say eps is now 7c on $5k this is why for a while I've said 60p was likely due to cash and it's come down to that despite some saying that was a joke... QED. What happens to RH now is guesswork, it's in a downtrend but reported power outages in SA could cause supply disruptions, which could create production shortages, bad for miners initially but pushes the RH price. Cash ps plus eps 1-3 years is a good deal but RH is the driver. SLP has done well to maintain this perfect 70k production during some difficult times. The broker has been buying at 79p which is a bad move, at least start at sub 60p and buy everything below as that's where value investors willing to part with larger sums enter.

Mulder no it isn't, it's 63%, you are not converting the dollars into pounds.

I'm seeing quite a few things fall to near cash per share or cash per share and 1-2 years eps, things seem rather odd. Most of my calculations are not on broker estimates but actual current cash estimates & spot prices. Once the bots have control of a downtrend they seem to be trashing anything, even good things. Falling prices are causing some funds to liquidate at crazy levels. applause to anyone who makes money this year.

Prof, Bangrak is in Bangkok so no issues, that's where I live anyway but not in BKK I'm on the beach in Samui. I've been out for a long while. I bought meaningfully here at 35-40p in 2020 on the shortage I saw in RH after the China lockdown as I knew the broker & net profit was wrong on RH prices......current basket x production minus all costs does not justify a share price of 79p hence why the brokers stopped buying yesterday and the drop, i assume everyone reading has noticed the rh price and the 50% soaking up of sales some days? TBH i think many are totally oblivious to what happening hence the need to shoot the messenger who, to be honest, was messaging this months ago, if it saved someone a few pennies then good.....

Personally, i would sit out of this until the Rh price recovers above its 50-day which is 6854, there is a reason it's low and that is simply a lack of demand/oversupply. Alternatively cash per share plus 1-2 years eps at say 55p on 5k rh would for me be good value. As an example, TGA is cash plus 1 year's eps now. COST is trading around net cash sub TNAV. Lots of good things about but the sentiment in sectors is holding everything back. Everything has its time.

Without significant changes in the rh price back to $10k+, as the rest don't really matter you're heading towards quite minimal net profits, it will take 1-2 quarters to see this so don't be surprised when it happens, many warnings have been given and links to PGM supply/demand provided, many of which were dismissed, the basket would be $1180 and the AIC last update was $1007.

I have a basket net of costs of $1453 using the average RH price for the last 6 months which was $9057, June average is $5923 and the current RH price in NY is $4300. With the broker artificially supporting the price at 79p you have some support here but maybe recalculate on $5923k & $4300 and it's more like $36m $23m & $18m. $40m needs $10k and it's half of that now and incentives from China for EV are damaging sentiment.

What's poor about a cash adjusted per of 1.36 on $100t with current net cash of 406p a share after tax? not really any surprises in this except net cash was higher than expected. When coal rises on gas to coal switch at $40e will people wait 6m to read revenue has gone up....quite surprising responses from "investors"

Using T3m basket net now is around $29m or pe of 9.1, if you want to adjust for cash it's 4.2, neither seems cheap as some have said with Rh still falling. Still no signs at all of any buybacks. QED

Net cash is about 350 ps eps is 218p that's 568p SP just touched 568p......machines not seeing the value here just trading trends.

Ronnie, can you explain why this looks expensive on cash build? My sheet says the net cash after the dividend is about 349p ps and it's generating £300m of cash at £103t allowing for the discount. Price to free cash just 2.79....i assume you have a spreadsheet with all calculations on it? At 500p that would be cash plus a PER of 0.7..

Looks too cheap to me on that update at 80p, struggling to see the issue here for this low value but I'm also seeing 200p+ near broker values. Very interesting.

Did someone say the broker won't buy any shares at the current price as it's not good value and if they do spend money it will be for staff buybacks..........alternative is to get ST to feature it and provide liquidity to the seller in the way of IC readers.....nice one pr people ....QED

All my calculations are based on an average of spot plus 3 futures prices for the coming 12 months. Buy this entire business now and you get your cash back in 3 years, the gas-to-coal switch doesn't happen until TTF is much higher so coal will drag, EU refill has gone remarkably well with storage on track to be full before winter so NPG & TTF sluggish but HH is now starting to rise. I think this is one to pop in and out of you won't get much sat holding this except frustration.