Member Info for bangrak

Impossible to predict this one as it's in the grip of sentimental-driven algo trading, cap is £900m and it's making £300m a year in cash, adjust the earnings for the cash, and its trading on a pe of just over 1. My cash is net of the dividend btw private equity interest?

With brokers now forecasting profit in 2024 down again at $39m why would a broker begin to buy shares now at a current pe of 7-8 and continue to buy them to 100p+ which is 9-10? where is the logic in that unless it's to buy back shares from staff members which they often do, Anglo A is sitting on a 7-8, mining average is 8. No RNS so far means no buybacks. I say they will use this money lower just to support the price. last time this was $40m SP was under 40p. The forecast dividend is now reduced to 5.5c in 2024.

Brokers have now reduced profits to nearer 8b zar, i did comment that 10m looked optimistic a few weeks ago following a post saying 10m, i had 8m myself. $128t seems safe with few changes in this on futures the last few weeks. Gas to coal switch happens near 45 euro per mhw i read so demand for coal is likely to be greater in the second half as TTF reaches 45euro. A minimum 30-35% of profits paid in dividends I recall was stated, so 100p and 12-13% minimum expected longer term at current prices (mindful of decommissioning liability £300m) Oddly one Broker (ben lol) has just said 351p divvy so paying out 32% more than actual profits....cannot see any huge gains in gas this year as storage in europe currently being filled at the required 2twh a day rate so full by winter unless the Russians take out the north sea in some way (quite possible). Oil looks interesting, with no signs of this apocalyptic recession damaging it, and draws on storage looking healthy. skies above China are full of planes now, and trains full of travelers, but Western media will ignore that to keep the fear going. Evil China evil Russia..... lovely Americans & Europe buying huge quantities of refined oil from India this year and the crude all comes from Putin......shocking is exactly the word

"Liberum has just released what looks like a bullish note. Anyone able to view it and note the upgrade here"

Yes, but I don't see it as bullish, there are several downgrades, however, let's be honest they are paid to release spin, It mentions the uplift but also mentions the risk of the pre-winter power cuts affecting production. The broker is slow to downgrade & has now eventually revised down the target price to 125p which I feel is still too high to reasonably expect, therefore my statement about 100p area being the top if you include the cash stands, Their figures now finally look a bit more realistic. 2023 net profit $44.5m pe of 8 ( i have $40m but on ttm) 2024 $29.6m pe of 9.6 (appears to me they are expecting RH to now remain 7-9k). Regardless of your position, this looks warm, room below but not above. So in summary you have a good business (popular with traders) with cash, trading on a FPE pf 8 & 9.6 with a broker downgrading target and net profit continually from a super RH spike. Anglo American is currently 7.5 metal/mining industry 7 (so SLP is warm)..... Can you really see this just sitting here flatlining?...will boredom set in & drops occur now your stockopedia tells you what has been said on this bb? traders will re-enter and then sell. 70p to 100p range trade only i see myself.... when the basket was at its current price the SP was under 40p. Sorry if you don't like this and think it's laughable but I just try to work out the value based on what the market thinks as relying on brokers and stocko to tell you results, just results in delayed action.

Trading on a pe of 7.4 (high for circumstances) Cash ($144m )is now 48% of cap (42p/sh) up $20m on quarter but NP is down to $6m, still looks like this is a $40m net year nothing like what the brokers say. 60-70p seems reasonable but 100p max if you include cash. Some movement in RH prices in the last few days due to increased production in China... Obviously, many of you like Gandolf will know all of this already as you follow all this stuff not a pattern from 2019. Still watching an old favorite but nothing to entice me. Trade only impossible to see anything substantial.

How can you ask for clarity when the actual thing being proposed is an idea & hasn't been decided by Congress yet, it clearly states it doesn't affect licenses already issued and this company has already got 3 licenses as I read it. What exactly do you want the company to say that isn't as clear as Crystal in the article? Brief research so I've bought some, I think the PI has misunderstood this or not read it in full.

Storage Nov 22 1174 twh, current storage 693twh, mild winter and reduced demand helped but for the EU to get to this full status they need to refill at 2.15 twh a day not 0.72 a day as they currently are...... worth keep an eye on this.

When i first entered the room here in March 2020 (20-30p) what I saw was typical trader chat, that changed when more people got to grips with just how much the appreciation in RH was making to the bottom line. Oddly the RH price is now the same as it was back then but the share price is 2-3x higher. I look at 1-2 years but respect that the world is now different and things change constantly. Steel copper aluminum and Nicket (SCAN) all 4 at the top of the pile with regard to all major green transition metals.........copper is great apparently...electric cars are wonderful.....if you want to dig up enough ore to manufacture 79m electric cars (0.3% grade 70kg per car) you need to dig up Denmark each year........i was talking to a senior person for Volvo last week, i said what's your view on EV....he said bull*** its not going to happen. I agree but we can believe what we want to, we are marching towards a goal but the foundations ar not there to support it, another mistake ahead.

Bots probably see fair value on current coal prices as nearer 715p, 740p is close minus net divvy so similar. It will open down at 8am there will be a rush to sell before that 740p so expect negotiated trades for a while. After divvy net cash should be around £524m or 3.78p a share. Until today there has been a reluctance to sell and an incentive to buy, but that changes today. Future divvy is not as good as last year but should be nearer 18%. Still attractive but a slight gain with good divvy isn't a 400% gain with initial investment back in divvy first year. I'm watching with interest.

Noticed Broker downgrades since my last post, eps is now forecast to be 0.19 & 0.16 almost the same as mine, supporting my previous post that it's insane to think this will make more money than before and brokers are slow. Once again third-year running brokers get it wrong, post covid they were bearish hence 100% gains were made, and the last 2 years were bullish resulting in losses for the faithful. 70-90p & reduced divvy, no doubt there will be a few range trades following breaks and reappearances from Gandolf and Rambo but they don't have a clue how to work out the net profit, I applaud the efforts of some who actually display some thought below. Won't be exact but the eps x historical average is 15p below where this is. Cheap???

RH averaged $15.44k in 2022 with a peak price of $19k in march the ttm net pfofit is $65m. PE 4.55 cash was building slightly.
Now its averaging $11k so far this year (currently $7.4k) down 28% & 61%
Enf of 2022 t3m rh was $13.3k T3m this year $11k
Production is pretty flat...things have changed here materially and some are missing it.

A quarter way in, analysts still predict net profit to be just 8% lower despite this huge decline in RH...........this is impossible look at the prill split & trend in RH, the analysts are way way out. The demand for RH has not risen as expected after china reopened and there is no supply problem like before as mentioned several times by heraeus, the $7.8k says this clearly. Recent examples of analysts getting it very wrong have been the substantial downgrades in Gas & Coal prices as a result of warm winters and energy reduction. To be really cheap in my view the SP here needs to be 40p area or RH needs to be $19k. Sorry if this is not what you want to read but these are facts.

If you are relying on a system to tell you the expected profit or the pe ratio then you're relying on a trailing profit or what an analyst thinks the profit will be based on an assumption. These 4ish ratios you mention are based on forecasts, forecasts are exactly that when the analysts finally admit to the fact that certain prices will not recover to their expectations you get these slow downgrades, and those that rely on these figures get caught out. rh is now sub 8k and it averaged $11k so far this year., last year it was $15.44k

That places SLP on a PE now of 6 using $11k and a big 8 if you use $8k. caution is needed here.

pe about 7 now that's top end it's not cheap.

"It looks as though there are now new broker consensus forecasts for 2023 and 2024. These show profit in ZARm to be 10,338 for 2023 and 6900 for 2024"

The 10.3b looks optimistic to me at current prices, but much closer to what I have at 8.8m, $135t seems sensible but the days of 1800p are long gone. I cannot really see much SP appreciation here. At 940-970p that 18% & some heavy resistance, i can see people banking here.

support line (800p) running up from 7 june 21 & 2 nov 21 also matches a valuation PER of 2.7 on 2023. Current cash is 540p a share, add sustainable dividends near 170p, cash holding in 3-4 years & proved too compelling to sit out. For me, it's about the cash build here not the share price.

Is anyone really bothered about last year when the coal was $270 and now it's $130? I estimate the net in 2023 to be 8.8b ZAR, that's a big drop. At 800-900p the trading systems see the fair value here. However, if you take the net cash and add in the profits for the next 4 years only and remove dividends you have a company in 2026 with £1.2b, you've had about 468p back in dividends net of withholding tax, and a business that could shut down pay £450m in decommissioning (broker est 300m) and give you back 500-600p. £10 back for £8 now with mines that can last many more years (4-10) is interesting.......Did suggest this was being controlled by the systems looking at the 800p support line, don't think they can see the value here which is why I'm staying out for a while longer. Machines are running the show everywhere...

"we move from trading on a p/e of three to 1.5 but the sp still keeps falling"

At $133t i have the per at 3.06 maybe we are nearing the floor? What I think the trading systems are missing is the size of the cash/divvy, at this rate the cash will be market cap in 5-6 months. What I think they are seeing is the lower support line near 800p and it's being driven down there by systems. Still on the sidelines here as the underlying commodity like many in energy is down to flat.

"looks like there's a solid buyer at this price"

Yes, 68% of the last 3 days' volume was by one man in the jungle.

Assume it's 2025... 18k boepd is being produced with 96% natty. The world is leaning heavily on the US & Qatar to fill the Russian gap, UK O&G explorers won't explore due to windfall tax. China and US are still arguing over balloons, and rare earth minerals are being hoarded by China stalling the green transition. We need gas badly.

Germany's gas consumption in 21-22 was on average 79twh pm. During winter its average is 108twh pm. The huge 14 Q-flex and Q-max ships built to carry Qatari LNG exports are able to carry a cargo providing nearly 6 trillion BTUs of energy, 6 Trillion btu = 1.75twh. So these big ships will provide Germany with 1.59% of its monthly gas needed during winter. The entire fleet of 14 super tankers provides it with 22% of its monthly gas consumption. You need 62 of these huge tankers arriving every month for Germany alone to replace the pipeline gas and storage. Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited, has largest LNG shipping fleet in the world, 69 vessels 31 Q-Flex 14 Q-Max. Replacing the pipe is not going to be easy and it won't be cheap. My research but DYOR

Anyway, my sheet (at $3-3.5 natty) says net profit will be in the region of $52m or £43m just slightly less than the cap today. US gas is currently too cheap imho. Broker has $79m in 2025 on $4.5, if i plug in $4.5 into my sheet i have $68m, so the sheets are similar. I personally see great demand for LNG and exceptional value here assuming it all goes to plan. I am a buyer down here.

tale of two banks in the same place.... similar cap and shares in issue. one puts out results yesterday 1.4b gel profit eps about £10, this puts out 1b profit eps £5.8 other looks better on analysts' forecasts too.