Member Info for bangrak

It might report that £6-7 eps but looking at current RB prices (135-140t) i estimate eps is around £3 with £3.5 on 15mt ny. Coal ind eps 2.1, max was near 4 during the peak. Will the bots trade this down to 650p-800p near its 726p (est) in cash? I'm still watching, the problem as I see things now is valuations are being totally ignored in favor of retail-driven momentum, plenty of oil companies putting out great results with price-to-free cash flow of sub 2. RB coal as a source of power is very cheap now with only US LNG & Uranium cheaper, you need to spend almost twice as much on oil to get the same energy output. Brokers now giving out 11m zar as net in 23 probably using $150t, my sheet says 9m zar. Even if you allow for oil to fall to $70 for a sly saudi/US agreed SPR refill, RB should be attractive sub $200 to most of the developing world.

SA African miner (shorter life) suffering like many due to Eskom, hits a PE of 6.43 plus cash (record level bit rich) off a retail-driven chart breakout off the back of china reopening whilst the commodities it actually sells were in decline (odd). Hits a summit, traders back off, momentum slows (rsi peaks) 20 day breaks, traders dump, algos see negative & dump, now sub 200 day not attractive anymore to trading systems. Predicting what this will do next month without even acknowledging PGM's direction is like investing in a gold company but ignoring the movements in gold. You won't see quarterly results again ever as you did in 2020-21. 18c eps today according to my calcs pe still 6.43 and above the mining industry average. Caution as i said at 104p when some were throwing cash at it (supposedly)

According to Hannam & p isn't this targeting 8k 13 & 18kboepd in year 1-3? this is a new one to me but I see 80p here based on existing gas prices and increased production. Assuming progress is made this looks very cheap, it's worth 25-30p now but not after that. US gas is a bit too cheap, lets see what happens when people start refilling storage in a few months.

Unless there has been a major leak I cannot see it's possible to actually use that much gas (62twh) plus imports (about 12twh) in one day, this leads me to believe that the figures being reported by the authorities could have been fudged to get gas futures prices down, we've seen this behavior in the US with oil, possibly something brewing here. I've monitored this site daily for 3 months and on several occasions i was amazed at how distorted the estimated readings v actual readings were.

There seems to have been a very large gas draw from the 24th to the 25th way beyond what is sustainable for more than 57 days. Not sure what has happened, maybe EU feels safe and is now turning on all taps?

https://agsi.gie.eu/

https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20230123.pdf#msdynttrid=Wh8yZCkEPVfsJVyN-ZF5MatmpTee2BE-hv4lFMbKTTU

you're trading on a PE of almost 9 now for a SA miner of PGM's with a short mine life. Yes, it's got cash but so has TGA and the PE there is 2-3. I think you're making a mistake buying at 104p. buy SCAN and oil, if your lazy just buy Glencore.

Have you actually looked at the basket price, calculated the net profit, and asked yourself does SLP usually trade on a PE multiple of 10, that's what you're basically suggesting in these wild non-earnings-based predictions. Buying at 104p without any clear signs RH is rising means you will be sat on a loss in a few months. Momentum is all that is keeping this up (look at the endless price references) that will end when the posters have offloaded their shares around 106-107 and you fail to get it past the "resistance" of the top channel, virtually no one left who can calculate profit here just traders. Let's see next quarter's results with RH at 12k and much higher costs ......net here now is no more than $45m

Correct, i had quickly read the 617m as income less some expenses and deducted extra costs on my sheet and allowed for a lower coal price but actually p17 of the results shows the 617m is what was used as net profit H1 net of just op costs so a PE of 1.23 paid. takes my eps to 477p for next year so target 18xxp next with 15m prod $200t.

Add in the extra net income and extra shares in issue and it's ok/neutral from me, they haven't paid much for it around 3.3x net income i calculate.

The one thing the EU is doing well is not using much of its gas in storage, with only 7 TWH used in 3 days, the data looks unusual when you look at previous consumption. Over here in SE Asia, I am seeing Zero signs at all that things are slowing down, many people here reporting record levels of business for this time of year. I was in Singapore and KL a few weeks ago and everywhere is rammed full and buzzing. See what you see ;)

I'm a bit off that, a touch under £800m. Interesting developments in gas with almost all LNG supply sold out in the years ahead and the EU beginning to look very foolish in their strategy. Trend just broken but will it hold?

"By end November 2023 this company’s market cap will be entirely backed by CASH"

I would say Feb/March 24 myself, BUT golden rule is underlying commodity controls share price regardless of how cheap it might be (i say 1500-1600 now) why not wait for 2 days after the very obvious downtrend is broken? Futures 22 $181 23 $164

When I met a CEO of an aim company in Singapore a few years ago he told me a lot about FIL who had a large position in the company, he described them as complete traders who rarely bothered to notify. If you check Kenmare you will see the same action.

Simon says good, i say good but priced about right you won't make 100% here......what does Hurculese at Heraeus say......

"The carry-over of work-in-progress (WIP) stock into 2023 is forecast to result in market surpluses for PGMs. The rhodium market is projected to be oversupplied by >50 koz in 2023, whilst palladium swings from a 350 koz deficit in 2022 to being oversupplied by close to 500 koz in 2023. Improved supply and a weaker autocatalyst demand growth forecast suggest an overall downside price risk for the next 12 months, particularly for palladium and rhodium demand which are 82% and 88% exposed to the automotive sector, compared to 40% exposure for platinum"

The last comment from me was you might get 100p on a good run and that's what happened (4-5 times) if your not trading this 80-100p range and are waiting like John Rambo for 170p then you could be waiting a while. Net prof/shares x 5-6 is always the formula here. today that is 90-102p.

Source Bruegel & GIE data 2 nov 22
EU uses 4497 twh of gas pa based on 2021 consumption.
Storage now is 1125 twh (25%) heading into peak consumption.
Supplies all sources (Bruegel) is currently equaling 3648 twh pa.
Winter appears ok but 2022-23 supply & refill are very challenging.
Minus Russian gas supply (likely) and you have 3426 twh of supply LNG looks maxed out.
Lack of regasification capacity and pipelines to deliver the gas resulting in a 23% shortfall that appears difficult to cover even with demand destruction assisting. The 14 Q-flex and Q-max ships built to carry Qatari LNG exports are able to carry a cargo providing nearly 6 trillion BTUs of energy, 6 Trillion btu = 1.75twh. NBP 185p bottom 350p max, eps here looking forward with 30% windfall tax I calculate around 107p.

Q4 gave these results.....Price won't fall that much but it won't go up that much either, max PER during the year was 6.7 average 5.6. The basket now is lower, net profit is lower, and gross to net basket looks like it's gone up 3% reflecting smelter elec costs. Net profit now on 2022 average basket price ytd is $47m so 80p looks right, might have a run under good PGM conditions to 100p, price is where it is for a reason. Not for me until the car industry recovers & china is released from covid zero and much higher gain possible.

$3.45 aisc v copper $3.43 with guidance that this was based on a 150-175 e mwh......... that's about all you need to assess at this stage.

.......some social media posts the situation globally is temporarily forgotten. However, the reality is that the problem with gas in the EU is now beyond critical and the cost of electricity in many EU countries is in excess of 600e pmwh, this makes it very hard to maintain production and keep businesses open. There are many businesses in the EU unable to make what they make for the sale price now, this includes many miners, expect closures/job losses. Once you see what's going on and then see the next step it's pointless trying to expect breakouts and further rallies until the energy crisis is over.

That little rally was brought on by some excitement about US interest rates not being raised as much as expected and just like